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Company Description
  Travel Business Analyst is a travel data, consultancy and research company, established in 1987. Its main activity is collecting statistics and facts to monitor travel movements in the Asia Pacific and Europe regions, and the travel companies involved in this activity. Much of the essence of this information is released monthly in the two editions (Asia Pacific and Europe) of its newsletter, also called Travel Business Analyst.
 
Proven Valuable Insight
  In the process of providing statistical and analytical insight on the travel business, the newsletter has included a number of projections, often as comment, that have turned out to be remarkably accurate. The following is an excerpt from a sales letter:
 
Asia Pacific
  We have highlighted a series of flaws in data from IATA (International Air Transport Association). These include: statistics for Chinese airlines in IATA's respected WATS publication; travel agency BSP statistics for Asia in 2000; ATAG's Asia Pacific 'Constraints' review. We suggested a rejection of IATA's dot.travel application - and which was subsequently rejected, twice; we have now modified our position to one of qualified support.
In late 2000 we speculated that Swissair would reconsider its "disastrous"
expansion policy, particularly in France and Belgium, by year-end. In January
2001, the airline said it planned to do just that.
At the start of 1999, we said there was a good possibility that "there will be some transaction involving Rafael Hotels" before end 1999. In April 2000, Mandarin Oriental agreed to buy the company.
In 1997 we said that Lauda Air loads and yields were insufficient to support its Vienna-Hong Kong route. In 1999, it announced it is stopping the service.
In 1996, we said the alliance between Inter-Continental Hotels and Federal Hotels would not work. It was abandoned the following year.
In 1992, we said Hong Kong airport's traffic projections were wrong because they excluded China. In 1996, figures were changed as China was included. What is more, our traffic projections were right.
In 1998, we said the foreign investor would pull out of Myanmar Airways International because they lacked the international marketing expertise required in a downturn. The company pulled out in October.
At the start of 1997, we forecast a visitor downturn in Hong Kong from June - based on our Big Event Blues theory. The fall started that month. In July 1998, we predicted a recovery from that month - on the basis of the financial world's Dead Cat Bounce theory. The upturn did indeed start that month.
 
Europe
  We have highlighted a series of flaws in data from IATA (International Air Transport Association). These include: statistics for Chinese airlines in IATA's respected WATS publication; travel agency BSP statistics for Asia in 2000; ATAG's Asia Pacific 'Constraints' review. We suggested a rejection of IATA's dot.travel application - and which was subsequently rejected, twice; we have now modified our position to one of qualified support.

In February 2001, we said Scandic Hotels would likely be sold before the
end of the year. Hilton's offer was made public in April.
In late 2000 we speculated that Swissair would reconsider its "disastrous"
expansion policy, particularly in France and Belgium, by year-end. In January
2001, the airline said it planned to do just that.
In March 2000, we said Rod Eddington was our only choice to take over as head of British Airways. The following month, his appointment was announced.
At the start of 1999, we explained the planned brand line-up at Starwood Hotels. The company announced these in mid-year.
In 1998, we said Bass Hotels would drop the 'Holiday Inn' prefix on its Express brand. That happened in 1999.
In 1998 we said Bass Hotels would drop the Global Partners scheme of its new Inter-Continental acquisition. We thought it would happen end-1998, but it was not dropped until end-1999.
In 1998 we said that the twin move of Utell's metamorphism into Rezsolutions and placing its hotels with Pegasus "threatens the continued existence of Rezsolutions." In 1999, Pegasus bought out Rezsolutions.
In 1998, we said Disney's venture with cruises would last two years. In 1999, it said it would stay with its two existing ships rather than the planned ten.
In 1998 we queried some of the statistics in the annual report of the European Travel Commission- in 1999, that section was omitted from the new ETC report.
In 1998 we forecast that Spain would overtake the UK as the European country with largest travel agency count that year. Figures in 1999 showed that this did indeed happen.
In 1997, we said Airbus would pull out of its 100-seat aircraft venture in China. In summer 1998, Airbus closed the programme.
In 1998 we said London-based Audley would take over its hotels as management contracts expired - despite company denials. In 1999 it took over what was the Crowne Plaza in Singapore. The other Audley-owned hotel in the city is the Grand Hyatt.
 
Conclusion
  We were right in these cases, and in others, but there is nothing special about these forecasts. They require only a professional, dispassionate, and constant market watch - to look beyond today's figures and events to see what they tell us about tomorrow.