Company Description

Travel Business Analyst is a travel data, consultancy and research company, established in 1987. Its main activity is collecting statistics and facts to monitor travel movements in the Asia Pacific and Europe regions, and the travel companies involved in this activity. Much of the essence of this information is released monthly in the two editions (Asia Pacific and Europe) of its newsletter, also called Travel Business Analyst.

Editor

MURRAY BAILEY is Editor/Research Director of Travel Business Analyst. He has also been editor of various periodicals and publications, including the Sourcebook on Travel and Tourism, Asia Pacific's only comprehensive annual compendium of regional and local-market travel industry statistics, and the International Hotel Industry, a 600-page report of which Bailey was the author. From his current position, Bailey has conducted research and analysis for a number of major organisations in the travel industry, including American Express, Cathay Pacific Airways, the Economist Intelligence Unit, the European Travel Commission, the Hong Kong Tourism Board, the Inter-Continental hotel group, and the World Travel & Tourism Council. Bailey divides his time between France and Hong Kong.

Proven Valuable Insight

In the process of providing statistical and analytical insight on the travel business, the newsletter has included a number of projections, often as comment, that have turned out to be remarkably accurate. The following is an excerpt from a sales letter:

Asia Pacific

In July 2007 we said "Initially, we thought Oasis' business plan was sound (albeit because it was partly our proposal). After that, the Oasis message was mixed, routing was changed, and the product mix became complex. We think this plan will not work." The airline stopped flying in April 2008.
In June 2004 we said that the Valuair experiment would not last another year - based on what we saw as a misguided business plan. In February 2005 we said Jetstar Asia was not generating enough traffic, after having earlier disputed part-owner Qantas claims that it knew how to run a low-fare airline. In July 2005 the two Singapore-based business failures merged. In September 2006 we presumed Qantas " will eventually, probably soon, buy at least majority-if-not-full control of Jetstar Asia". In February 2007, Qantas applied to take over the owning company of the two airlines.
In July 2004 we said we would be surprised if Backpackers Express, due to start flying Europe-Asia-Australia end-2004, actually took off - based on its awkward business, operational, and market plans. We are still waiting.
In 2001 we said (now) Langham Hotels would take over its hotels as management contracts expired - despite company denials. In 2003 and 2004 it announced this would happen for the Langham Hilton (London), Meridien (Boston) and Sheratons in Auckland and Melbourne.
In 2001, pre-911, we said that Boeing's proposed Sonic Cruiser - which we dubbed the 7whoosh7 - "would be a flop" if the company decided to build it, which we guessed "90:10 against". The company shelved it in 2003.
In 1999 we said Frankfurt Airport's 25-year contract to manage an international terminal at Manila airport "will not last that long". FA pulled out in 2002.
We have highlighted a series of flaws in data from IATA : statistics for Chinese airlines in IATA's respected WATS publication; travel agency BSP statistics for Europe in 2000; ATAG's Asia Pacific 'Constraints' review. We suggested a rejection of IATA's dot.travel application - and which was subsequently rejected, twice. (We since modified our position to one of qualified support.)
In 2000 we speculated that Swissair would reconsider its "disastrous" expansion policy, particularly in France and Belgium. In 2001, the airline said it planned to do just that – but that did not stop eventual failure.
In 1999 we expected there would be "...some transaction involving Rafael Hotels" before end-year. In April 2000, Mandarin Oriental agreed to buy the company.
In 1997 we said that Lauda Air loads and yields were insufficient to support its Vienna-Hong Kong route. In 1999, it announced it was stopping the service.
In 1997, we said Airbus would pull out of its 100-seat aircraft venture in China. In summer 1998, Airbus closed the program.
In 1996, we said the alliance between Inter-Continental Hotels and Federal Hotels would not work. It was abandoned the following year.
In 1992, we said Hong Kong airport's traffic projections were wrong because they excluded China. In 1996, figures were changed as China was included...and our traffic projections were right.
In 1998, we said the foreign investor would pull out of Myanmar Airways International because they lacked the marketing expertise needed in a downturn. The company pulled out in October.
In 1997, we forecast a visitor downturn in Hong Kong from June - based on our Big Event Blues theory. The fall started that month. In July 1998, we predicted a recovery from that month - on the basis of the financial world's Dead Cat Bounce theory. The upturn started that month.

Europe

In November 2005, we listed the faults with the business plan of the airline Eos, concluding "Eos will not survive". The airline stopped flying in April 2008.
At the start of 2007, we said Ryanair probably needed two more years before matching what Southwest did in the US in 2006 – and become the largest airline in Europe in terms of seats sold. Only Air France is still ahead; so it is almost certain to happen this year. We said Easyjet would overtake British Airways' seat sales total in 2007. It stormed past its UK rival that year. We said the "complex business-plan" of TUI "will eventually cause failure". There are now plans to merge it with Lufthansa's Germanwings and others.
We criticised Eurotunnel for a poor business plan, despite its excellent product, over more than two years. In August 2004 we asked why shareholders could not get management change; in December when heads would roll; and in February 2005 why a 75% decline in stock price over five years had not prompted change. In June 2005, the CEO resigned.
In July 2004 we said we would be surprised if Backpackers Express, due to start flying Europe-Asia-Australia end-2004, actually took off - based on its awkward business, operational, and market plans. We are still waiting.
In 2003, we called the restructure of Visit Britain an “ extraordinary strategic mistake” but expected “two years of struggle to try and make it work” before abandoning it. However, the awareness came earlier than we expected, with another restructure in 2004.
In late 2003, we said of Europe's two low-fare darlings - Easyjet's growth was too slow, and Ryanair's loads were slipping too much . In 2004, Easyjet said it needed to “consolidate”, and Ryanair announced a profit warning.
In 2001, pre-911, we said that Boeing's proposed Sonic Cruiser - which we dubbed the 7whoosh7 - "would be a flop" if the company decided to build it, which we guessed "90:10 against". The company shelved it in 2003.
When Thomas Cook and British Airways announced their plan to merge their holiday operations in 2001, we said a deal seemed unlikely. It went ahead, but was then broken up in 2002.
In 2001, we said Malmaison was "beginning to look a failure" for its part owner, Rezidor SAS. The brand was sold in 2002.
In 2002 we said the Qualiflyer airline alliance was "almost certain to collapse". It closed at the end of the year.
In 2002 we said Lufthansa would change its policy and launch a low-fare response to competition. That summer Lufthansa announced its partly-owned Germanwings low-fare airline.
We have highlighted a series of flaws in data from IATA : statistics for Chinese airlines in IATA's respected WATS publication; travel agency BSP statistics for Europe in 2000; ATAG's Asia Pacific 'Constraints' review. We suggested a rejection of IATA's dot.travel application - and which was subsequently rejected, twice. (We since modified our position to one of qualified support.)
In 2001, we said Scandic Hotels would likely be sold before the end of the year. Hilton's offer was made public in April.
In 2000 we speculated that Swissair would reconsider its "disastrous" expansion policy, particularly in France and Belgium. In 2001, the airline said it planned to do just that – but that did not stop eventual failure.
In March 2000, we said Rod Eddington was our only choice to take over as head of British Airways. The following month, his appointment was announced.
In 1998 we said that the twin move of Utell's metamorphism into Rezsolutions and placing its hotels with Pegasus "threatens the continued existence of Rezsolutions." In 1999, Pegasus bought out Rezsolutions.
In 1998, we said Disney's venture with cruises would last two years. In 1999, it said it would stay with its two existing ships rather than the planned ten.
In 1998, we queried some of the statistics in the annual report of the European Travel Commission- in 1999, that section was omitted from the new ETC report.
In 1998, we forecast that Spain would overtake the UK that year in having the largest number of travel agencies in Europe. Figures the next year showed that this did happen in 1998.
In 1997, we said Airbus would pull out of its 100-seat aircraft venture in China. In 1998, Airbus closed the program.

People-in-Travel

In August 2007, we said we expected Richard Hartman would not stay long in his retirement from InterContinental; "we expect him to quickly take another senior role in the hotel business". In April 2008 he joined Millennium & Copthorne as CEO.
In May 2007, after Robert Cotter was named head of Kerzner International, we said John Kuhlman, head of its One&Only Resorts, had similar skills, and "that could mean change in the near future". Kuhlman left before year-end.

Conclusion

We were right in these cases, and in others, but there is nothing special about these forecasts. They require only a professional, dispassionate, and constant market watch - to look beyond today's figures and events to see what they tell us about tomorrow.