Travel Business Analyst

27 August 2010
Iberia revenue increased 2.8% to US$2.97bn in the first half. The airline no longer provides data on seat sales, but it says international traffic increased and domestic fell. Systemwide capacity was cut 4.4%, but traffic fell only 0.9%.

26 August 2010
Regional airline associations:
-Revenue for the leading US airlines* increased 20% in July, even though seat sales fell 1%. International revenue grew 36%. *Source: Air Transport Association of America.
-Leading airlines* in Asia Pacific sold 17.2mn seats, up 20.4%, in July. RPKs increased 13.6% on 6.2% growth in ASKs. Source: Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. *The main and crucial shortcoming fact with AAPA data is that it excludes airlines from China and India, among others, and includes peripherals such as Air New Zealand and Royal Brunei.)

25 August 2010
Our May calculation of seats sold by ‘group airlines’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from AEA data, for AF+KL+AZ, BA+IB, LH+LX+BD+SN+OS, shows: +1.4% -10% +8.4% (parent airlines +0.3% -14% +11%).

24 August 2010
Seat sales for Turkish Airlines in the first half were 13.4mn, up 19.3%. RPKs increased 26.8% on 19.9% increase in ASK.

23 August 2010
Our January-May calculation of international passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: -5.6% (all airports +0.2%).

20 August 2010
Smith Travel Research reports for US hotels in July - occupancy up 7.0% to 67.9%, and average room rate down 1.3% US$99.14.

19 August 2010
Airlines:
-Iberia RPKs increased 5.3% on 1.9% more capacity in July.
-SAS January-June seat sales were 12.0mn, down 4.6%.
-Singapore Airlines seat sales up 1.2% to 1.5mn in July.

18 August 2010
Malaysia-based Air Asia says it sold 3.9mn seats in its Q2, through June. Although the company frequently mixes group and country-results without clear definitions, this is for its Malaysia division. Our records indicate this is a 10.8% growth, not 11.0% as stated.
The airline said its passenger load factor increased 2.0 points to 77.0%; our records indicate 2.2 points.
AA frequently seems cavalier about some statistics, with minor reporting errors and sometimes more important ones.

17 August 2010Hotel development July pipelines: Asia Pacific 1029 hotels with 256,060 rooms; Europe 678, 118,126; US 3412, 359,264. Data from Smith Travel Research, TWR, Dodge.

16 August 2010The June hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World +7.3; AsPac +10.2; Europe +8.1, US +3.7.

6 August 2010
Ryanair sold 7.61mn seats in July, up 13%. The airline counts booked passengers, not boarded, because it still keeps the revenue even if the passenger is a no-show.

5 August 2010
The ‘World Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: 2010: May +8E; Apr +1E; Mar +8P; Feb +7.4; Jan +6.0. 2009: Dec +5.4; Nov +2.4; Oct +0.7; Sep +0.7; Aug -1.5; Jul -2.4; Jun -6.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

4 August 2010
US airline results in July:
-American Airlines traffic increased 2.7%, on a 3.1% increase in capacity. Domestic fell 0.4% and capacity increased 0.8%; international increased 7.8% and capacity increased 6.5%.
-Delta Airlines passenger traffic increased 0.5%, on a 0.3% fall in capacity. Domestic fell 2.1% and capacity fell 1.7%; international increased 4.5% and capacity increased 1.8%.

3 August 2010
Period results:
-Over April–June, British Airways revenue was down 2.3% - passenger revenue down 3.4% on capacity down 11.2%.
-Over January-June, the Cathay Pacific group (which includes Dragonair) increased turnover 33.7% to HK$41,337mn. Passenger revenue increased 25.7% to HK$27,411mn. The two airlines sold 13.0mn seats, up 8.5%, on 0.1% less capacity.

2 August 2010
Airport trade body ACI said airports in Europe increased passenger throughput 2.4% January-June 2010 - but down 8.4% compared with 2008. Growth is increasing - throughput in June was up 5.6%.
Larger airports (25mn-plus annual passengers) increased 4.4% in June (but down 3.2% compared with 2008), and medium airports (10-25mn) +6.1% (-3.4%).

30 July 2010
The February ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +10% over same month 2009.

29 July 2010
STR reports US hotel occupancy up 6.9% to 65.0% in June, with average room rate up 1.0% to US$98.33.
Biggest changes in the main regions: Hawaii-Oahu occupancy up 17.5% to 78.8%, New York rate up 15.4% to US$230.11.

28 July 2010
IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports an 11.9% increase in international traffic (RPKs) for its members in June. In regions: Asia Pacific +15.5%; Europe +7.8%; North America +10.8%.

27 July 2010
BAA (SP), which owns London Heathrow and Stansted airports, says total passenger traffic increased 0.9% in the first half - +2.3% at LHR. Net retail income per passenger up 10.2% - thus greater than the traffic growth.

26 July 2010
AAPA (Association of Asia Pacific Airlines) member airlines sold 15.1mn seats, up 25.2%, on international routes in June. RPKs increased 19.0%, on a 6.4% increase in ASKs.

In the first half, members sold 89mn seats, up 14.9%, on international routes.

23 July 2010
Hotel results from Smith Travel Research for June:
[] Americas occupancy up 7.0% to 64.9%, average room rate up 1.8% to US$100.31. The US occupancy was up 4.4% to 56.4%, and ARR down 2.0% to US$97.18.
[] Asia Pacific occupancy up 14.5% to 63.9%, ARR up 10.8% to US$121.83.

22 July 2010
Etihad Airways, owned by Abu Dhabi, sold 3.3mn seats, up 11% in the first half, with RPKs up 23% on capacity growth of 21%.

21 July 2010
Ryanair’s Q1 showed revenue up 16% on an 8% rise in seat sales. For the year it expects seat sales up 11%.

20 July 2010
Our January-April calculation of international passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, calculated from ACI data, shows: -6.6% (all airports -0.01%).

19 July 2010
ATA (Air Transport Association of America), the industry trade organisation for main US airlines, reports that passenger revenue increased 25% in June . Seat sales increased 1.4%.

16 July 2010

Smith Travel Research has published selected data on hotel results during soccer’s World Cup period in South Africa (11 June – 11 July).
This is not sufficient to determine overall results, but it does appear that our Big Event Blues* theory was proven given the low occupancies in Capetown and Durban, but probably not in Sandton and Gauteng.
Facts:
-STR tracked results from 50 hotels in Capetown, Durban Sandton, and Gauteng Province. Sandton and Gauteng were most affected as three of 10 match venues were accessible from hotels within the province.
-Capetown. Occupancy 67%; no comparison given.
-Durban. Occupancy 61%; no comparison given.
-Sandton. Occupancy 84%, up 22 points. No average room rate data given but it probably increased around 150% as revpar (revenue per available room) increased 259%.
-Gauteng. Occupancy 81%; no comparison given.
*Our BEB is a semi-serious theory, suggesting that momentous international events may actually reduce visitor arrival totals. Although these events attract international visitors, many traditional travellers (such as business travellers and even holidaymakers) will stay away from that destination just before, during, and just after the event. They assume that there will be too much disruption to normal movement in the destination. In general, they are right - not only is movement curtailed, but many prices are higher.

15 July 2010
The April hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy-points: World +3.9; AsPac +7.2; Europe +2.6.

14 July 2010
The Association of European Airlines reports a 4.3% increase in traffic for its members in May; traffic to-and-from Asia, up 5.5%, contributed most. June total is expected to have grown 8%.

13 July 2010
Data from ARC (Airlines Reporting Corporation) to Travel Business Analyst shows 5.3% growth in all transactions for ARC member US travel agencies in June. Growth in the month earlier was 4.9%.

12 July 2010
Hotel development June pipelines: Canada 211 hotels with 22,276 rooms, down 14.9%; US 3387, 358,739, -28.5%. Data from Smith Travel Research, TWR, Dodge.

9 July 2010
The May ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 68; AsPac 86; Europe 53. (Base is Dec 06.)

8 July 2010
Airports, June:
-BAA's UK airports handled 9.5mn passengers, down 1.7%.
-Frankfurt Airport handled 4.9mn passengers, up 7%. First-half total was 24.5mn, up 1.4%.

7 July 2010
Airlines:
-United June RPKs up 3.5%.
-Lufthansa first-half seat sales 27.2mn, up 1.8%.

6 July 2010
OAG Facts shows worldwide air seat capacity had increased 5.3% at mid-year. In Europe, capacity to-and-from the region was up at practically that same rate, 5.2%, but intra-Europe capacity increased at a slower pace, 3.8%. However, that is still faster than the 3.3% annual average that we calculate since 2001, when OAG started presenting its data in this way.

5 July 2010
The ‘World Travel Industry Index’ in the current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: 2010: Apr +4E; Mar +8E; Feb +8P; Jan +6.0. 2009: Dec +5.4; Nov +2.4; Oct +0.7; Sep +0.7; Aug -1.5; Jul -2.4; Jun -6.3; May -8.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

2 July 2010
Hotel results from STR for May 2010: Americas occupancy +7.5% to 59.1%, average room rate -0.2% to US$99.10; Asia Pacific occ +15.3% to 63.1%, ARR +8.6% to US$125.52.

1 July 2010
The World Tourism Organization calculates visitor arrivals increased 7% January-April. By region - Asia Pacific +12%, Americas +6%, Europe +0.3%.
Volume (258mn) is still 2% below 2008.

30 June 2010
The January ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +7% over same month 2009.

29 June 2010
The February ‘TBA Hotel Index’ in the current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific hotels, is at +13% overall over same month 2009: +9% occupancy, +8% average room rate, +23% revpar.

28 June 2010
The April calculation of seat sales for ‘group airlines’ in Europe, in the current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, calculated from AEA data, for AF+KL+AZ, BA+IB, LH+LX+BD+SN+OS, shows: -17% -21% -16% (parent airlines -20% -24% -15%).

26 June 2010
Royal Caribbean Cruises says Asia’s cruise market could be 5mn by 2020. It says penetration against population is currently 0.05%, which would mean almost 1.5mn at present. That indicates average annual growth of about 11%.
Cruising's penetration is 3% in North America and 1% in Europe.

25 June 2010
Selected May traffic:
-AAPA (Association of Asia Pacific Airlines) member airlines sold 14.6mn seats, up 17.6%, on international routes. RPKs (revenue passenger kilometre) increased 14.6%.
-ATA (Air Transport Association of America, the industry trade body for the main US airlines) reports members sold 2% more seats, but increased revenue 21%.
-Passengers through Dubai airport Jan-May increased 17.7% to 18.9mn.

24 June 2010
Pegasus says hotel booking revenue in May increased 30% in GDSs (global distribution system) for bookings through September, and +10% in ADSs (alternative distribution system).

23 June 2010
The number of meetings handled by the 100 IAPCO members in 2009 increased 9% to 5641 run over the year - association meetings +15%, governmental +46%, corporate +2%. Participants increased 8% to 2.12mn.

22 June 2010
During summer - June-August - STR anticipates US hotel occupancy to increase 4.3% to 64.4% and average room rate to increase 0.1% to US$97.17.

21 June 2010
Our Jan-Feb calculation of international passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, calculated from ACI data, shows: -1.8% (all airports +3.1%).

18 June 2010
Air-seat patterns
First-half-2010 airseat patterns for Asia Pacific* show a strong return to growth. Although this is to be compared with the depressed totals in 2009, three of the four main measures (top four in our Table 1), were growing faster than the 10-year average.
Growth in air seats to-and-from the region is 6% compared with almost 50% faster for intra-region traffic. Over the decade, however, average annual growth has been 6% for both to-and-from and intra.
Within the four regions, the largest by far is Northeast Asia. Its capacity pattern was 4% to-and-from, compared with 8% intra-regional - but 41% low-fare IR, the fastest in the route patterns we track.
LFAs are steadily penetrating Northeast Asia, which means primarily China, Japan, Korea. LFA seat capacity this year is 14mn, compared with 23mn for Southeast Asia - although intra-NEA total capacity is 280mn compared with a much-smaller 89mn for intra-SEA.
LFA seats appear to have grown substantially this decade, see Table 2. But definitions are a problem. For instance, we would not define Jetstar International as an LFA, and even have concerns (if definition terms) for its adding-frills domestic original, Jetstar Australia.

*All data extracted from the June edition of the monthly OAG Facts. Data for Jan-Jun. Some calculations by Travel Business Analyst. For more information on this product - of which this report is but a tiny part - contact facts@oag.com.
Full report, with extrapolations of data, due in July issue of Travel Business Analyst newsletters.

17 June 2010
International arrivals to Asia Pacific increased 10% in Q1, according to PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association). By region: South Asia +17%; Southeast Asia +16%; Northeast Asia +4%; Pacific +6%.

16 June 2010
Selected May traffic:
-BAA. London Heathrow handled 5.3mn passengers, +3.1%.
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.18mn seats, +12.0%.
-Frankfurt Airport handled 4.76mn passengers, +7.1%.

15 June 2010
The Mar hotel-track in the current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy-points: World +6.3; AsPac +12.9; Europe -0.4.

14 June 2010
Hotel development May pipelines: Asia Pacific 1004, 253,815; Europe 679 hotels with 117,996 rooms; US 3447, 364,612. Data from Smith Travel Research, TWR, Dodge.

11 June 2010
For US hotels in 2010, STR forecasts occupancy to increase 3.6% to 56.7%, and average room rate to fall 0.6% to US$97.26. For 2011 it forecasts occupancy to increase 2.5% to 58.1%, and ARR to increase 3.9% to US$101.05.

10 June 2010
The Apr ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 76; AsPac 96; Europe 59. (Base is Dec 06.)

9 June 2010
Airline traffic, May:
-The Air France group sold 6.2mn seats, +1.6%. Traffic (RPKs) +4.3% with capacity (ASKs) +0.1%. On Americas routes, traffic +5.0% with capacity -0.4%. On Asia routes, traffic +9.7% on capacity +4.1%.
-Air Canada traffic +9.7%, capacity +6.4%.
-American traffic +4.1% , capacity -0.4%.
-Ryanair seats sold 6.44mn, +17% (includes 250,000 on cancelled flights).
-SAS group sold 2.3mn seats, +2.4%. Traffic +4.0%, capacity -1.6%.
-Southwest traffic +3.5% , on flat capacity.
-United traffic +7.5% on capacity +3.3%.

8 June 2010
By mid-year, the Carlson Hotel group had opened 40 new hotels and signed 37 new contracts. For this year it targets 90 new hotels and 100 new contracts.
Its overall target is a 50% increase in hotels to 1500 by 2015. Currently planned are 265; it has 1070 hotels open.

7 June 2010
In The Economist this week is our statistical theory - which we call the Big Event Blues*. It was used to make adjustments to visitor expectations for soccer’s World Cup in South Africa starting this month.
We estimated as much as 7% of the average monthly visitor total - thus over 50,000 - would NOT visit South Africa because the World Cup is being staged. That should be deducted from the total of visitors expected - originally 475,000, then 375,000 until about 10 days ago, and now 300,000.
*Our BEB is a semi-serious theory, suggesting that momentous international events may actually reduce visitor arrival totals. Although these events attract international visitors, many traditional travellers (such as business travellers and even holidaymakers) will stay away from that destination just before, during, and just after the event. They assume that there will be too much disruption to normal movement in the destination. In general, they are right - not only is movement curtailed, but many prices are higher.

4 June 2010
The ‘World Travel Industry Index’ in the current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: 2010: Mar +8E; Feb +7E; Jan +6P. 2009: Dec +5.4; Nov +2.4; Oct +0.7; Sep +0.7; Aug -1.5; Jul -2.4; Jun -6.3; May -8.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

3 June 2010
At end-2009, China had 3757 budget hotels, up 34%, with 412,840 rooms, up 32%. R&M.

2 June 2010
One blight in Bangkok.
Skyscanner, a travel search engine, said that the violent political unrest in Bangkok was not affecting searches in North America for travel to Bangkok in June, July, and August.
However, Skyscanner added that in December 2008 there were “no major drops in flight searches to Bangkok following the closure of its two main airports during a period of civil unrest.” Yet over November-January, monthly falls in visitor arrivals in Thailand were 31%, 39%, and 20%.
(See report in June issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter on this topic.)

1 June 2010
Air Asia revenue in Q1 increased 10% to US$260mn (the company has reported this, wrongly, as MR880bn). This is below the 17% increase in seat sales of 3.7mn, indicating a falling yield.
Its Thailand associate increased revenue 30% and its Indonesia associate 37%.
Ancillary revenue (which include booking fees, baggage charges, food charges, etc) increased 31% to take 16% of revenue.

27 May 2010
Association of Asia Pacific Airlines members sold 15.2mn seats, up 11.7%, on international routes in April.

26 May 2010
Singapore’s Changi airport handled 3.28mn passengers, up 12.6%, in April. And 13.2mn, up 15.5%, YTD.

25 May 2010
The Pegasus reports a 34.3% increase in revenue for April hotel bookings made through GDSs (global distribution system) and ADSs (alternative distribution system) transactions. Booking volume was up 27.4% and average room rate up 5.5%. GDS and ADS bookings were up 11.1% YTD.

24 May 2010
Q1 hotels in Milan: occupancy (O) down 2%, average room rate (R) up 9%. Rome: O -2%, R -8%. Venice: O +12%, R -3%. Q1 2010 compared with Q1 2008. Milan: O -9%, R -19%. Rome: O -1%, R -19%. Venice: O -12%, R -17%. (All data TBA estimates from Smith Travel Research data.)

21May 2010
Hotel development pipelines: Europe 675 hotels with 116,935 rooms; Asia Pacific 1004, 252,584; Middle East/Africa 467, 128,903; Caribbean/Mexico 133, 17,018 rooms; Central/South America 134, 21,628. Data from Smith Travel Research, TWR, Dodge.

20 May 2010
The Mar ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 75; AsPac 92; Europe 60. (Base is Dec 06.)

19 May 2010
ICCA identified 8294 events, up 9.2%, in 2009. Top three - US, Germany, Spain for countries (unchanged on 20080; Vienna, Barcelona (up from 3), Paris (down from joint 1st).
In countries, China and Austria are new in the top-10. In cities, no newcomer; only newcomer in top-20 is Madrid, 13th.
(A report is planned in the April May // issue of Travel Business Analyst Asia Pacific and Europe editions on the ICCA findings. TBA calculates 5-year composite averages for comparisons, rather than single years.)

18 May 2010
In April, affected by volcano-related shutdowns, Air France sold 5.0mn seats, down 20.3%. On its Americas network, traffic fell 15.9%; on Asia -13.0%; on Europe -23.5%.

17 May 2010
ATAA (Air Transport Association of America), the trade organization for the leading US airlines, estimates that about 2.2mn seats will be sold daily on domestic and international routes of US airlines Jun 1 - Aug 31, totalling 202mn, up 1%.
Of those, 176mn, unchanged, would be on US domestic routes, and 26mn internationally, up 7%.

14 May 2010
Cathay Pacific Airways (with Dragonair) sold 2.17mn seats, down 3.6%, in April 2009, but capacity (in ASKs) was cut 5.8%. Over Jan-Apr, seats sold increased 3.7%, and capacity was cut 2.7%.

13 May 2010
Easyjet reported a 10.6% increase in seats sold to 21.5mn in the first half of its fiscal year (through March 2010). This betters its capacity measure (seats flown; different from most other airlines), which increased 7.9%.
It says 54% of its passengers originating outside the UK, up 4-points. (Earlier, we estimated 55%.) The airline claims it has increased its market share from 6.5% to 7.6% (for what it terms shorthaul) over the past 12 months.

12 May 2010
Passenger traffic at Europe airports in Q1 increased 5.2%. Aircraft movements fell 1.1% , indicating more bigger aircraft. Airports Council International, which collects and processes the data, says passenger traffic is still below 2008 by 7%.

11 May 2010
Emirates , the airline, reported a 20.6% increase in seats sold in its fiscal year through March 2010, to 27.5mn - and the same percentage increase , 20.6% , in passenger capacity (ASKs).

10 May 2010
The World Travel Industry Index in the current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter shows: 2010: Feb +7E; Jan +6E. 2009: Dec +5P; Nov +2.4; Oct +0.7; Sep +0.7; Aug -1.5; Jul -2.4; Jun -6.3; May -8.4; Apr -2.4; Mar -10.3; Feb -11.2. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

7 May 2010
Vietnam, following an 11% fall of visitors in 2009, targets an almost-correcting 11% growth this year, to 4.2mn. Following that, targetting 8mn in 2015, then 13mn in 2020.

6 May 2010
CLIA (Cruise Lines International Association) forecasts 14.3mn passengers, up 6.4% this year. That compares with a 3.1% increase in 2009 to 13.4mn.

5 May 2010
BAA (SP), which owns London Heathrow and Stansted airports, says total passenger traffic increased 1.1% in Q1. Our own data, derived from BAA’s ongoing data supply, shows different - +1.6% LHR, -4.7% STN.
Net retail income per passenger up 10.7%. The way this is presented may help hide an actual fall in overall revenue.

4 May 2010
Los Angeles airport passenger volume increased 5.4% in Q1 to 13.3mn. Domestic was up 4.5% to 9.6mn, and international up 7.5% to 3.7mn.

3 May 2010
Pegasus Solutions says March bookings for Q1 through GDSs (global distribution system) and ADSs (alternative distribution system) exceeded March 2009 by 8.0%, March 2008 by 19.9%, and March 2007 by 27.2%.
Revenues through GDS and ADS in March exceeded March 2009 by 8.3%, 2008 by 0.9%, and 2007 by 11.0%, with Q1 increasing 5.4%.

30 April 2010
The Feb hotel-tracking by Travel Business Analyst shows occupancy growth in points: World 4.9; AsPac 8.5; Europe 4.2.

29 April 2010
UAL Corporation, which owns United Airlines, reported a 19.0% increase in passenger revenue per available seat km in Q1, and a load factor increase of 4.7 points.

28 April 2010
Visitor arrivals grew 7% over Jan-Feb 10, according to the World Tourism Organisation. In Asia Pacific this was 10%, in Europe 3%, and in the Americas 3%.
WTO forecasts VAs will grow 3-4% this year. This outlook has not been altered by the recent air traffic disruption in European airspace.

27 April 2010
Receipts from international visitors in 2009 are estimated to have been US$852bn, down 9.6%, according to the World Tourism Organisation. Adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations and inflation, receipts fell 6% (arrivals fell 4%).
The WTO measurement system shows spending by visitors from China around the world increased 21%, taking it passed France - ahead are Germany, US, UK, all three of which spent less in 2009.

26 April 2010
STR reports US hotel occupancy up 2.3% to 51.9% in Q1, with average room rate down 4.3% to US$96.27. Among segments, ‘luxury’ occupancy increased 10.6% to 63.1.
Areas reporting occupancy increases of more than 10% included Boston (+15.1% to 54.6%), and New York (+11.6% to 72.0%). Miami was the only market to post an ARR increase, up 4.0% to US$182.70.

23 April 2010
Cathay Pacific Airways (with Dragonair) sold 2.22mn seats in March, up 6%, on capacity down 1.6%. For Q1, seat sales increased 6.4% on a capacity drop of 1.6%.

22 April 2010
London Heathrow airport passenger throughput was 5.2mn, up 0.4% in March. Across the BAA group of airports, European scheduled services increased 0.1%, North Atlantic 1.7%, Middle East 7.2%. South America 6.8%; domestic was down 6.8%.

21 April 2010
Etihad Airways flew 25% more RPKs, and sold 11% more seats in Q1. For all-2009, RPKs increased 15% and seat sales 5%.

20 April 2010
The Feb travel stock TBA Index by Travel Business Analyst shows: World 66; AsPac 83; Europe 52.

20 April 2010
The US hotel development pipeline comprises 3399 projects with 354,538 rooms, down 35.7%, according to the STR/TWR/Dodge Construction Pipeline Report.

19 April 2010
Southwest Airlines flew 27.0bn RPKs, up 1.6%, in Q1. Load factor was 75.9%, up 6 points.

16 April 2010
Smith Travel Research reports provisional US hotel occupancy in March increased 5-7%. Fastest growing segment was the top - luxury - up 12-14%.

15 April 2010
British Airways RPKs fell 11.4% in March, on a 13.7% cut in ASKs. Traffic comprised a 7.2% fall in premium traffic and a 12.2% fall in non-premium traffic.

14 April 2010
Turkish Airlines seat sales increased 11% to 26.0mn but seat factor fell 3.1 points to 70.9%.

13 April 2010
Ryanair sold 13% more seats in March, to 5.3mn. Seat factor increased 2 points to 79%.

12 April 2010
Southwest Airlines flew 0.4% more revenue passenger kms in March, and 1.6% more in Q1.

10 April 2010
The latest World Travel Industry Index by Travel Business Analyst shows: Jan +7E; Dec +5E; Nov +2P; Oct +0.7; Sep +0.7; Aug -1.5; Jul -2.4; Jun -6.3; May -8.4; Apr -2.4; Mar -10.3; Feb -11.2; Jan -6.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

09 April 2010
Delta traffic increased 3.0% in March 2010 on a 1.6% fall in capacity. Seat factor increased 3.7 points to 84.2%. International traffic increased 3.3% on a 2.8% decrease in capacity, and seat factor increased 4.8 points to 82.2%.

08 April 2010
STR forecasts US hotel occupancy will increase 1.9% to 55.8% this year, but average room rate to fall 2.3% to US$95.45. For 2011 it forecasts occupancy will increase another 1.9% to 56.8%, and ARR to increase 3.5% to US$98.79.

07 April 2010
United Airlines revenue passenger kms increased 3.2% in March on a fall of 2.7% in available seat kms; seat factor was 83.5%, up 4.8 points.

06 April 2010
In Dec 09 there were 5.13mn seats sold on flights into the US from the rest of the world, and 5.44mn from the US.
(See tables in current issues of Travel Business Analyst for comparison with previous year, YTD, etc.)

05 April 2010
Air Berlin sold 27.9mn seats in 2009; we estimate growth was 2.9%. AB forecasts an increase this year above 30mn, which would be a 7.5% growth.

02 April 2010
The Alitalia Group sold 21.8mn seats in 2009. It does not report a comparison with 2008. Travel Business Analyst estimates a 16.6% fall, including traffic in 2008 for Air One - which was reporting poor results before being absorbed into the Alitalia group.

01 April 2010
AAPA (Association of Asia Pacific Airlines) member airlines sold 14.2mn seats, up 16.9%, on international routes in February. RPKs (revenue passenger kilometre) increased 14.0%.

31 March 2010
Gulf Air sold 5.7mn seats in 2009, unchanged from 2008. RPKs (revenue passenger kilometre) increased 2.1%.

29 March 2010
CEIR (Center for Exhibition Industry Research) says the US industry fell 12.5% in 2009, following a 3.1% fall in 2008. All four categories fell - net square metres -12.3%, revenue -13.2%, professional attendance -4.1%, and number of exhibiting companies -5.8%.

26 March 2010
China will surpass France as the largest tourist destination by 2015, says Taleb Rifai, head of the World Tourism Organization. Previously, the WTO said this would happen in 2020.
Up until the 2008/9 world economic downturn, Travel Business Analyst said this would happen in 2013 - depending on the figure sources used. The WTO itself uses a mix of its own, unexplained, manipulation of China’s own data. China’s own data shows it overtook France eight years ago.
WTO’s figures include travel from Hong Kong and Macau which, under WTO’s own rules, should not count as international arrivals.
Currently, China was the world's 4th-most-visited destination, with 51mn in 2009; France had about 80mn, with Spain and the US about 57-58mn each.

25 March 2010
South Africa Tourism was expecting around 450,000 overseas visitors to attend soccer’s FIFA World Cup - scheduled to start June. SAT has not estimated how many would-be visitors will not visit at that time, because of expected disruption, higher prices, etc; Travel Business Analyst estimates 100-150,000.
The football association has now said that the number of visitors will not reach expectations, and that only 2.3mn of the 3mn match tickets have been sold.

24 March 2010
US hotel occupancy increased 0.9% to 53.0% in February, but average room rate dropped 4.5% to US$96.40.

23 March 2010
Ryanair seat sales in February increased 6% to 4.37mn, with seat factor at 75%, down 3%.

22 March 2010
British Airways traffic grew 1.1% in February, on capacity down 1.9%. Traffic comprised a 5.0% increase in premium traffic and a 0.3% increase in non-premium traffic.

19 March 2010
American Airlines traffic fell 2.2% and capacity fell 4.2% in February - domestic down 3.9% on 3.2% less capacity, but international up 0.8% on capacity decrease of 5.7%.

18 March 2010
Easyjet is the UK's largest airline, measured by the number of passengers flown through UK airports, for the second year. Ryanair is a bigger airline, but systemwide, not just in the UK. In 2009 Easyjet sold 28mn seats in-and-out-of UK airports; meaning about 18mn seats were on flights that did not touch the UK.
Easyjet is the largest airline at some airports outside the UK - such as Milan Malpensa - and is the second largest airline in France and Switzerland.
In 2010 Easyjet targets 10% growth to 50mn seats. Ryanair reached that level in 2007.

17 March 2010
ACI reports a 2.7% decline for 2009 in passenger traffic through airports (to 4.4bn), international passengers down 4.2% (to 1.8bn), and aircraft movements 5.5% down (to 63.9mn). Q1 passenerrs were down 8%, and Q2 by 5%.

16 March 2010
IATA (International Air Transport Association) has cut the forecast loss in 2010 from US$5.6bn, made in December, to US$2.8bn. Passenger demand (which fell 2.9% in 2009) is expected to grow 5.6% this year; in December IATA was forecasting 4.5% growth for 2010.

15 March 2010
IT&CM China, due next month in Shanghai, expects more than 300 international and Chinese buyers to attend, with Chinese buyers from 13 cities in China. Sellers have increased 19% to 250.

13 March 2010
Passenger traffic at European airports increased 3.9% in January, although movements fell 2.2%. S: Airports Council International.

12 March 2010
BAA's UK airports handled 7.13mn passengers in February, up 2.4%. London Heathrow was up 5.3%, but London Stansted fell 4.5%. BAA sold London Gatwick airport in 2009, but it owns four other airports in the UK.

11 March 2010
Turnover at the Cathay Pacific Group in 2009 fell 22.6%, but it made an operating profit of HK$285mn (compared with a loss of HK$1,440mn). Cathay Pacific (and its Dragonair subsidiary) sold 24.6mn seats, down 1.6%, on a 3.7% fall in capacity (ASKs).

10 March 2010
Easyjet sold 3.39mn seats, up 12.3%, in February, with seat factor at 85.3%. That is an improvement on the rolling-12-month 5.2% growth in seat sales, but SF was higher, at 86.1%.

9 March 2010
The SAS Group sold 1.8mn seats, up 0.3%, in February, on a 10.2% fall in capacity (ASKs). Yield was down 14%, however. For Scandinavian Airlines itself, seat sales were 1.6mn, up 0.5%, on capacity down 10.8%.

08 March 2010
ITB Berlin, due March 10-14, expects 11,127 exhibiting companies (2009: 11,098) from 187 countries, occupying all 26 halls and covering 160,000sqm.

04 March 2010
PATA (the Pacific Asia Travel Association) says visitors in Asia Pacific fell 3% in 2009; it was 6% in the first half. By region: Southeast Asia +1%; Northeast Asia -2%; South Asia -3%; Pacific -2%.

01 March 2010
Airport traffic worldwide, reports Airports Council International, fell 2.6% in 2009.

26 February 2010
In 2009, the city of Berlin staged 108,500 events, up 4%, with 8.26mn participants, up 1%, and 5mn roomnights, up 6%.

25 February 2010
Aeroflot-Russian Airlines sold 8.8mn seats in 2009. That is 6.8% growth - on 2007.

25 February 2010
BAA counted 85.9mn passengers, down 3.8%, through its London Heathrow and Stansted airports in 2009. Heathrow's fall outperformed competitors; Stansted underperformed.
(BAA [which was British Airports Authority] completed sale of its London Gatwick airport for £1.5bn in December.)
Perhaps surprisingly, net retail income per passenger increased 6.1% to £4.72.

24 February 2010
Visitor arrivals in Spain increased 1.1% to 2.54mn in January, after 18 months of decline. This is the Dead Cat Bounce; arrivals were down 9.8%. IET.

23 February 2010
InterContinental Hotels opened 439 hotels (H) with 55,000 rooms (R) in 2009.

23 February 2010
ACI (Airports Council International), whose members represent about 95% of airport passengers, has upped its estimates for 2010. To 3-4% growth.

22 February 2010
Total passenger numbers at Amsterdam Schiphol, Rotterdam, and Eindhoven airports (the three operated by the Schiphol group) fell 7.7% to 46.3mn in 2009. Numbers of passengers travelling through Schiphol fell 8.1% to 43.6mn.

February 20 2010
The Philippines government wants to double its number of rooms from the current 14,000 to 30,000 within five years. But with the count often going in the other direction (there were 22,000 in 1995), this seems unlikely.
Also difficult to reach will be visitor arrival targets - 5mn for 2010 - because that would require 26% average growth in 2009 and this year. Although the highest annual growth this decade has been 20%, the annual average has been only 6%. TBA.

February 19 2010
MSC Cruises estimates it sold 1.09mn berths, up 36%, in 2009. MSC has 10 ships cruising five world regions, with the MSC Magnifica due this March. Berth sales target for this year is 1.2mn, which would be 10.6% growth. TBA.

February 18 2010
The Asia Pacific hotel development pipeline includes 948 hotels with 239,918 rooms, according to the January 2010 STR Global Construction Pipeline Report. That compares with 239,313 rooms six months earlier.

February 17 2010
The Europe hotel development pipeline includes 602 hotels with 101,704 rooms, according to the January 2010 STR Global Construction Pipeline Report. That compares with 94,259 rooms six months earlier.

February 16 2010
Extracts from Page-1 Market Monitor, Travel Business Analyst, February:
Aviation
[] World; RPKs 2009; -4%. Cathay Pacific; seats sold 2009; 24m -3%. China Southern; seats sold 2009; 66m +14%. Lufthansa; seats sold 2009; 56m -3%. Singapore AL; seats sold 2009; 16m -15%.

Inbound
[] World; arrivals 2009; 880m -4%. Europe; arrivals 2009; 460m -6%. AsPac; arrivals 2009; 181m -2%. Australia; arrivals 2009; 5.6m -0%. Cyprus; arrivals 2009; 2.1m -11%. Korea; arrivals 2009; 7.8m +13%. Macau; arrivals 2009; 22m -5%. Malaysia; arrivals 2009; 24m +7%. Netherlands; arrivals 2009; 9.9m -2%. Spain; arrivals 2009; 52m -9%.

Others
[] World travel stock TBA Index; 2009; 65. Europe travel stock TBA Index; 2009; 50. US; travel agency sales; $66b -17%.

February 15 2010
US travel agency numbers have declined from a peak of 47,000 at end-1996 to under 16,000 at end-2009. Sales also dropped, again, to US$66bn, and thus are well below the US$84bn peak in pre-9/11 2000. Source: Airlines Reporting Corporation, Travel Business Analyst.

February 11 2010
The total active U.S. hotel development pipeline includes 3,647 projects with 378,145 rooms, according to the January 2010 STR/TWR/Dodge Construction Pipeline Report. This represents a 35.9-percent decrease in the number of rooms in the total active pipeline.

February 11 2010
STR Global says China's hotel occupancy fell 6.5 percent in 2009, with average room rate falling 21 percent.

February 10, 2010
In 2009, Air Canada reported passenger revenues of $8.50 billion fell 12 per cent.

February 2, 2010
The latest World Travel Industry Index by Travel Business Analyst shows: Nov +3E; Oct -1E; Sep +0.5P; Aug -1.5; Jul -2.4; Jun -6.2; May -7.3; Apr -2.3; Mar -10.3; Feb -11.2; Jan -6.7; Dec -6.3; Nov -5.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

February 1, 2010
Travel Business Analyst estimates outbound travel by China nationals increased just 1% in 2009, following some monthly declines over the year, to 45mn.

January 18 2010
According to the World Tourism Organization, visitor arrivals fell 4% in 2009 to 880 million. They are forecast to increase 3-4% this year. There was 2% growth in Q4 2009.

January 14 2010
IATA (International Air Transport Association) has increased its (loss) forecast for 2010 from US$3.8bn to US$5.6bn. It expects the loss in 2009 will have been US$11bn and thus US$49bn over 2000-9, meaning US$5bn a year.

2010 January 13
FITUR, due 20-24 January expects 11,000 companies from 170 countries/regions, occupying 76,000 square metres of net exhibition space.

2010 January 11
Airbus delivered a total of 498 aircraft in 2009. The figure is a new company delivery record for a single year and is 15 more aircraft than in 2008.

December 2, 2009
The latest World Travel Industry Index by Travel Business Analyst shows: Sep +1E; Aug -2E; Jul -2P; Jun -6.2; May -7.3; Apr -2.3; Mar -10.3; Feb -11.2; Jan -6.7; Dec -6.3; Nov -5.6; Oct -2.0; Sep -2.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

November 2, 2009
The latest World Travel Industry Index by Travel Business Analyst shows: Aug -3E; Jul -3E; Jun -6P; May -7.3; Apr -2.3; Mar -10.3; Feb -11.2; Jan -6.7; Dec -6.3; Nov -5.6; Oct -2.0; Sep -2.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

2009 October 15
STR says US hotel occupancy dropped 7.9 percent to 60.5 percent in Q3, average daily rate fell 9.8 percent to US$96.84, and RevPAR decreased 16.9 percent to US$58.61.
YTD occupancy fell 9.9 percent to 56.6 percent, ADR dropped 9.1 percent to US$98.01, and RevPAR decreased 18.1 percent to US$55.48.

October 2, 2009
The latest World Travel Industry Index by Travel Business Analyst shows: Jul -2E; Jun -6E; May -8P; Apr -2.5; Mar -10.3; Feb -11.2; Jan -6.7; Dec -6.3; Nov -5.6; Oct -2.0; Sep -2.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

September 15, 2009
The total active US hotel development pipeline includes 4,384 projects with 475,521 rooms, according to the August 2009 STR/TWR/Dodge Construction Pipeline Report. This represents a 2.5-percent decrease in the number of rooms in the total active pipeline.

2009 September 15
Washington - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) today announced a revised global financial forecast predicting airline losses totaling US$11 billion in 2009. This is US$2 billion worse than the previously projected US$9 billion loss due to rising fuel prices and exceptionally weak yields. Industry revenues for the year are expected to fall by US$80 billion (15%) to US$455 billion compared with 2008 levels.

2009 September 13
Dead Cats
This month, September, is likely to be the start of what the financial industry calls the Dead Cat Bounce. The DCB theory suggests an automatic correction on a sizeable decline in the previous year; even a dead cat bounces.
In practical terms, this indicates that many of the measures that started to show a fall after the Lehman Bros bank collapsed in September 2008 (but more starting from October) will likely see an increase with measures for September 2009. In some cases, the apparent bounce will be substantial - some starting above 10% growth.
This is of course a statistical illusion, because the real check should be whether there is growth in comparison with 2007 measures. But that will not matter; the commentariat will proclaim a new boom.
However, that is good for business, even if based on misreading data. Just as the extent of the fall was an exaggeration, so will be the bounce back.

2009 September 09
Outbound Swiss moves
A survey by Mondial Assistance, travel insurance, published in Travel Manager, finds that 74% of travellers from Switzerland will maintain their travel frequency this year.
However, making the survey hard to believe is the finding that 21% of travellers expect to travel more, leaving just 5% who plan to travel less.
We believe either the questions were framed wrongly, or the travellers are not telling the truth.

September 2, 2009
The latest World Travel Industry Index by Travel Business Analyst shows: Jun -5E; May -7-E; Apr -2.5-P; Mar -10.3; Feb -11.2; Jan -6.7; Dec -6.3; Nov -5.6; Oct -2.0; Sep -2.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

2009 September 01
New ‘World Travel Industry Index’ from Travel Business Analyst
At the mid-year mark, the world’s travel business was an estimated 5% down on June 2008, according to the World Travel Industry Index. This is an improvement on May, although April* was only 2.5% down.
The WTII, compiled by Travel Business Analyst, includes traffic data from across the industry in the three main regions - Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America.
Murray Bailey, research director of Travel Business Analyst, says: “The WTII is a measure for traffic - travellers through airlines, hotels, destinations. It does not include revenue.”
Bailey says the WTII was started after the collapse of Lehman Brothers bank in September 2008. “There was much talk in the industry on what was happening, but it all seemed to be anecdotal,” he says. “We had no clear idea on what precisely was happening, and we needed to know.
“So we started what is now called the WTII so that we would have a better idea of precise measures. We now find this invaluable to track trends.”
Bailey adds that Travel Business Analyst has compiled an Index on the prices of quoted travel stocks for some years, and so this WTII complements those measures.”
The WTII is published in the monthly market newsletter of Travel Business Analyst as part of its Market Monitor - which tracks 100 travel measures around the world. Originally entitled ‘Crisis Market Monitor’ when started in October 2008, it was renamed in July, and offered as a separate product.
Travel Business Analyst also provides ad hoc copies of the WTII to travel industry partners on request.

2009 July 05
Visitors down
Visitor arrivals fell 11% in the first quarter, see table, according to the WTO (World Tourism Organization). Europe, counting more than half the world total, fell more, by 13% in Q1, but after Q1 there were signs of improvement - meaning a reduced fall. The Americas was down 6% and also showing improvement. Asia Pacific was down less, 8% although it too was showing, much clearer, improvement.
An irony is that these results are almost switched for air traffic - AsPac is down more than other main regions.
There are complications with reading these results. Figures for France - which reports the highest visitor counts in the region - has reported only through February. Thus its large 13% decline weighs heavily on other results. Although there are no special indicators than visitor arrival counts in France will be much better or worse than general patterns, that fall does seem high.
Spain, the destination we count as the largest visitor destination in the region (because of the counting methodology in France, and higher transit traffic), reported the biggest decline of the main destinations. However, its 16% fall is mainly because it has a high share of visitors from Germany and the UK (totalling 45%); two outbound markets, and economies, which have been particularly hard hit in this crisis.
The surprise, though, is the steep fall in the UK - also down 13%. Why? Although the economy can be blamed for the similar fall in UK-outbound travel, why inbound? The economy’s fall has also caused the UK’s currency to fall and that, together with price mark-downs by the industry, should make the destination particularly price-attractive this year.
That said, much of the UK’s growth in recent years was coming from new markets such as East Europe - almost heavily touched by the economic crisis (which includes temporary workers in the UK).
The US still accounts, just, for the highest single share of visitors (11%), and that market has fallen fast, low prices or not. However, airline traffic figures indicate that the worst of the fall is over - see other report in this issue.
These world totals are worse than the WTO expected, and so it has marked downwards its forecasts for this year. The organisation has been constantly downgrading expectations for 2009: in November 2008, it forecast 0-2% growth in arrivals for 2009, in February this year 0% to -2%, although adding that it could be -3%. Just before mid-year it said it was expecting a 2-3% fall for all-2009.
Currently, the WTO forecasts a fall of 4-6% for 2009. Following that 11% Q1 decline and around -8% Jan-Apr, the WTO forecasts a 4-6% fall May-August, then 3-5% September-December.
WTO does not combine all-world spend figures over part-years, but we estimate a fall of around 8% YTD. But WTO’s spending data is skewed by currency movements, and the general shortcomings in the original data. In 2008 growth in US dollars was 10.2%, but 2.7% in Euros; WTO estimates real growth was up 1.8%, near-matching the 1.9% growth in arrivals.
Our own World Travel Industry Index - see page 1, column 1 - shows an 11% fall in March following the same in February, and 7% in January.
Growth in 2009 visitor arrivals, %

2009 June 06
British Airways' ASKs in May 2009 fell 5.3% , RPKs fell 6.5%, resulting in a passenger load factor fall of 1.0-points, to 75.1%. Traffic comprised a 17.2% fall in premium traffic and a 4.2% fall in non-premium traffic.

2009 June 05
New PhoCusWright surveys:
[] The US online vacation rental market is expected to reach US$4.7bn in 2010, up from US$2.8bn in 2007.
[] PCW says European travellers take four trips per year. PCW says average per trip spend is US$1913 (at US$1 to €0.80), of which 35% is spent online. 31% of those surveyed purchase all their travel online.
[] Meetings. In 2008, PCW forecast that the US groups and meetings market would grow 3.3% to US$175bn. It now says this was achieved. No new details have been given, but earlier PCW expected that 41%, thus US$39bn, would be booked online in 2008.

2009 June 03
US 2008 air traffic
Overall growth of air passenger traffic to-and-from (t/f) the US in 2008 was up 3.6%, although it slowed towards the end of the year, see Table 1. Over the year, traffic t/f Europe (based on the markets that we track) did better, growing at 5.0%.
The UK has lost share this decade, falling from 16% of the total in 2000, to 13% in 2008. That helped pull down the all-Europe share, from 37% to 34%.
Average annual growth has been slow this decade - averaging only just over 1% over all markets. That makes some in Europe look not so weak, and Germany’s and Spain’s 4% look fast.
We have added other significant markets, see Table 2. In Asia Pacific, both t/f China and t/f India have had fast growth. But at the end of 2008, both were slipping, with India show the biggest drop - from 66% growth in September 2008 to just over 0% in December.
In Europe, the next largest market (not shown in Table 1) was t/f Denmark, reporting a slight decline. Of others, t/f Russia still showed a strong increase, up 22%. In the UAE, where Dubai is the main market, growth was up 70%.
Table 1
Air passengers to/from US, main markets

Iberia.com slows
The airline does not reveal the same information on iberia.com each year, so systematic tracking is not possible. But results for 2008, see table, indicate that internet revenue increased 6% (Iberia reports 7.5%; our data is based on calculations from released figures).That pushed up share of internet sales on the airline’s total revenue to just under 10% - compared with just under 1% as recently as 2000.
Growth of sales on Iberia’s sites outside Spain still showed good growth, although the 17% increase was still down on 31% in 2007. More surprising is the apparent fall in non-air sales. Our calculations indicate a fall of 30-40% in terms of hotel and car rental sales, although these are still above levels since Iberia first published them, in 2005.
However, despite some weak results, average annual online revenue growth on iberia.com since 2000 has been a sizeable 41%.

2009 May 01
IPK’s outbound report
Other findings we have obtained from IPK studies on outbound travel in 2008 (main report in TBA’s April issue):
[] From Europe:
-short trips increase 9%, longer trips 0%.
-cities - 12.6mn arrivals in Paris, 12.3mn London, Vienna 5.3mn, Rome 5.2mn, Berlin 4.7mn.
-highest spenders are travellers from Switzerland, lowest from Poland.
-40% booked on packages, up 4%.
-Those travelling on holidays totalled 294mn up 5%, on business 63mn up 1%.
[] From Germany:
-International nights 730mn up 4%, spend US$91bn (at US$1 to 0.75), up 6%.
-Of the 76mn international travellers: 52mn, up 1%, were on holiday; 10mn, up 6%, on business.
[] 2009 outlook:
-Travel is still a “priority” for those earning more than US$27,000.
-In Europe, 40% will change their travel plans this year. Varies from 64% that will change in the ‘worst’ country, to 19% in the ‘best’. In North America, a worrying two-thirds will change their plans in 2009. (In Asia Pacific, 60% will change, but IPK says its sample was too small to give equal credibility to this measure.)

2009 May 01

Accor plans to open 80 hotels in Asia Pacific through 2010, including:
-Indochina. 10 in Vietnam.
-Indonesia. Plans to add 13 through 2010.
-Thailand. To add three in Bangkok and in Samui, through 2011. Seven more for other destinations, including Phuket.
[] Outrigger, plans:
-Bali. Second planned.
-Hainan, China. A 550-unit resort.
-Koh Samui. Abandoned?
-Phuket. Second planned.
[] Sol Melia hopes to have 4/5 more hotels open or under construction in the next 2/3 years. SM will concentrate on its Gran Melia brand, and in big cities, with China a priority.

February 16, 2009
Korean Air reported operating revenues of over $8 billon during 2008.

February 15 2009
Wizz Air, Poland-based low-fare-airline, sold 5.9 million seats, up 41%, in 2008. It targets 8 million passengers for 2009.

CRISIS MARKET MONITOR
(Excerpt from Travel Business Analyst issues.)
World/multi-region:
World travel stocks index: Sep 57; Oct 47. Industry IATA air traffic (RPKs): Sep -2.9%; Oct -1.3%; Nov 4.6%.

Other region:
US hotels Oct: occupancy -6.5%; rate -0.5%.
US Thanksgiving holiday; trips -1.4%.
New York ‘luxury’ hotels Oct: occupancy -5.7%; rate -6.5%.
Southwest Airlines seat sales: Sep -8.1%; Oct +0.4%; est Nov -8%.
United Airlines seat sales: Sep -7.9%; Oct -9.4%; est Nov -18%.

Asia Pacific:
AsPac airlines (AAPA) international seat sales: Sep -8.2%.
AsPac travel stocks index: Sep 73; Oct 57.
AsPac IATA air traffic (RPKs), Sep: -6.8%. Oct: -6.1%; Nov -9.7%.
Australia resident departures: Sep +2.7%.
Australia visitor arrivals: Sep -7.6%.
Bali visitor arrivals: Sep +18.7; Oct +23.8%.
Eva Air seat sales, Sep: -14.3%. Oct: -3.0%.
Cathay Pacific seat sales: Sep -0.7%; Oct +2.6%.
China Southern seat sales: Sep -0.9%; Oct +8.3%.
China foreign visitor arrivals: Sep -15.1%; Oct -11.5%.
Hawaii visitor arrivals: Sep -18.5%; Oct -12.3%.
Hong Kong airport passengers, Sep: -4.7%.
Hong Kong visitor arrivals: Sep +3.5%; Oct -1.4%.
India visitor arrivals, Sep: +1.5%.
Japan Airlines intl seat sales: Sep -17.1%; Oct -12.8%.
Japan citizen departures: Sep -9.7%; Oct -9.5%.
Japan visitor arrivals: Sep -6.9%; Oct -5.9%.
Jet Airways seat sales, Oct: -1.7%.
Macau visitor arrivals: Sep +2.1%; Oct +2.2%.
Korea resident departures: Sep -12.1%; Oct -5.8%.
Korea visitor arrivals: Sep +5.4%; Oct +0.7%.
Malaysia visitor arrivals: Sep -0.1%; Oct +9.0%.
Maldives visitor arrivals: Sep +4.6%; Oct -4.0%.
New Zealand visitor arrivals: Sep -6.6%; Oct -3.3%.
Qantas Group seat sales, Sep: -0.2%.
Singapore air passengers, Sep: -0.3%.
Singapore Airlines seat sales: Sep -1.6%; Oct +1.3%.
Singapore airport passengers, Sep: +4.5%.
Singapore visitor arrivals: Sep -4.1%; Oct -8.1%.
Taiwan resident departures: Sep -13.3%; Oct -4.9%.
Thai Airways seat sales, Oct: -12.2%.
Thailand visitor arrivals: Sep -20.7%; Oct -11.1%.
Tokyo Narita airport passengers, Sep: -10.1%.
Vietnam visitor arrivals: Sep -20.0%; Oct -10.8%.

Europe:
Europe travel stocks index: Sep 50; Oct 42.
Europe airlines (AEA) international seat sales, Sep: -1.6%.
Europe IATA air traffic (RPKs), Sep: -0.5%. Oct: +1.8%; Nov -3.4%.
Air France seat sales: Sep -1.5% (Eur/dom -2.5%); Oct +5.7% (Eur/dom +3.7%).
British Airways seat sales: Sep -5.6% (Eur/dom -5.9%); Oct -5.6% (Eur/dom -6.5%).
Italy hotels, Oct: occupancy -13%, rate -9%.
London airports international passengers: Sep Gatwick -6.5%; Heathrow -3.7%; Stansted -5.1%. Oct LGW -10.4%; LHR -3.7%; STN -6.9%.
London ‘luxury’ hotels Oct: occupancy -3.7%; rate -5.0%.
Lufthansa seat sales: Sep -0.4% (Eur/dom -0.4%); Oct -3.2% (Eur/dom -3.0%).

The Tourism Authority of Thailand expects visitor arrivals to stop falling by the second half of this year, then start growing from Q3, reaching 14mn; the 2008 total was 14.3mn.
Thailand’s central bank, however, forecasts that visitor arrivals this year will drop 8.8%.

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