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Travel Indices
12 February 2016
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in January for US hotel companies was 2719, -12.1%. The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for January, in the current editions of our Travel Business Analyst newsletters, shows: World 154, AsPac 83, Eur 124, US 255. The ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in January, in the current edition of our monthly Net Value report, was at 82.
  The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at January 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ is based on 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ is based on 100 at December 2014.

Travel business updates
11 February 2016
-ACI reports Europe airports 2015 passengers handled +5.2%.
-Air France-KLM January seats sold 5.8mn +2.4%.
-American January RPKs +1.6%.
-Brussels airport January passengers handled 1.5mn +7.5%.
-Copenhagen airport January passengers handled 1.9mn +13.4%.
-Easyjet January seats sold 4.27mn +6.3%.
-Frankfurt airport January passengers handled 4.2mn +2.2%.
-IATA reports 2015 RPKs +6.5%.
-IATA reports airline January share prices -10%.
-Ryanair January seats sold 7.5mn +25%.
-SAS January seats sold 1.8mn +5.2%.
-Southwest January RPKs +11.1%.
-United January RPKs +0.1%.
-US November outbound travel +9%.

Air fares; Singapore Airlines Group - SAGging
10 February 2016
Air fares
Over specific periods and routes, France-based Algofly compares air fares. The task is difficult because prices change constantly. The lowest fare at 1000 on Tuesday may not be there at 1300.
  Some comparisons; Paris to, lowest/highest, economy roundtrip, US$, 2015/2014:
-Paris-Ajaccio, Aug: 178/711; 167/337.
-Paris-London, Feb: 88/174; 78/201.
-Paris-New York, Dec: 667/1417; 722/1167.
SAGging; Singapore Airlines Group
2015 was not a stellar year for the Singapore Airlines Group. Are results bad enough that changes will be made?
  The obvious change is to merge Tiger and Scoot (Toot-toot!?); there is no need for SAG to have two no-frills-airlines. Less obvious is to make Silk a low-cost-airline, in effect a lower-cost clone of the parent airline, which includes operating medium- and long-haul routes.
  Seat sales in 2015 on the parent airline were flat. At Silk they were better; +7%, although we think growth should be better. Scoot is the star performer, with about +21%. But that’s illusory because SAG has taken routes from Tiger to give to Scoot – with the result that Tiger was -4%.

New accounts - Air France, Alitalia, Eurowings, KLM, Lufthansa
9 February 2016
Two big airline groups in Europe have changed the operational data they publish, starting January. Perhaps surprisingly, the result is an improvement for transparency. A third, Alitalia, remains obscure.
Air France and KLM split!
Sorry, we mean split their figures; they are still (an unhappy?) one.
For some time we have complained that the two produced only combined data. Using other data, it appeared that KL was growing faster and that AF was in more trouble that those combined totals indicated.
  Today we have only January figures, and given the terrorist attacks in Paris last November, not too much should be read into the counts. For the record, though, seat sales on AF were -0.6% and those on KL +8.2%.
  Perhaps more interesting is relative size. KL is 57% the size of AF (including Hop, excluding Transavia). The last year for which we have separated data – 2011 – KL was 49% the size of AF.
The Lufthansa group reveals Eurowings.
We are not sure how to interpret Eurowings data. The airline is such a jumble of types (FSA/LCA/NFA [full-service/low-cost/no-frills airline], charter, summer-sun, full-year, etc).
  Perhaps a key figure is its (big) size. In seat sales it is 25% the size of Lufthansa, 90% the size of Swiss, and 50% bigger than Austrian!
  In ASKs and RPKs it is not so impressive comparatively, but its growth is - +35% and +49%. That is because EW is now operating longhaul as well. We doubt profits will show such growth.
Alitalia hides.
Despite being partly state-owned*, Alitalia still publishes no operational data. The latest information on its website is from 2013.
  Its secrecy will be supported by 49%-owner Etihad, and the other 51% owners probably also prefer that weak results are not made public. We expect data will start to be published when traffic starts to grow.
*Notes:
-Actually owned by nominally private interests under the CAI umbrella, but all close to the state.
-See 8 February 2016 for definitions for different types of airlines – FSA, LCA, NFA.

Etihad to take over Air Malta? Joining the debate.
8 February 2016
In June 2014, we gave our advice on what state-owned Air Malta needed to do to survive. With speculation that Etihad┼ is about to buy 49%, our comments are relevant again.
  These are Air Malta’s choices, in no particular order:
1. No change.
  We are reminded of that well-known phrase in The Leopard – “for things to remain the same, things will have to change”. Slightly different for AM in that most things that affect the airline are changing.
  AM is a small airline surrounded by NFAs* in the (real) open-skies of the European Union. In this business environment it is hard for AM to make profits as an FSA*; in fact, it is probably not possible.
  Ryanair, Europe’s biggest airline (of all types), in particular, is entering AM’s only space – Malta. Not only will this continue, but Ryan will open more routes to/from Malta, and be joined by at least Easyjet. And possibly also by Vueling, which is becoming more like a Europe-wide NFA, and not just a Spain-based part of the IAG group (Aer Lingus, British, Iberia).
  In the past one option would have been for AM to get government support - subsidies. Broadly, this is no longer possible in the EU, although some airlines – such as Alitalia – seem to get around the rules. But Italy is a big country, Malta is not, and so the EU can more easily force Malta to follow the rules. As it did with Cyprus Airways, now shut down.
2. Transform into an LCA*.
  As the definitions at the end of this report indicate, an LCA can work best (perhaps only) when the airline has an FSA parent. But even if AM can lower its costs, so lower its fares, those fares will still likely be higher than those of NFAs. And travellers – despite what they might say to researchers about wanting ‘comfort’, will buy a no-frills fare to save even $20.
  So, transform into an NFA? See next.
3. NFA. Another route is for Air Malta to become an NFA, such as Ireland’s Aer Lingus. Not the hybrid way – such as Air Berlin, which operates as FSA, NFA, and charter airline - and interestingly is 29% owned by Etihad.
  AL has had the toughest task – the same homebase as the strongest NFA in Europe, Ryanair. In profits, AL has not done well (losing US$106mn in 2014, but now part of the IAG Group). In traffic, AL’s 2014 seat sales grew 2% compared with Ryan’s 6%, and in 2015 about +4% compared with Ryan’s +17%.
  But if AM does try to become a NFA, it will still face competition from at least Ryan on many of its routes (Ryan avoids NFA competition when it can). In which case, AM will lose because Ryan has a more powerful sales machine.
4. Link up with a bigger airline. The disadvantage is that the bigger partner would likely decide many of the operational patterns.
  If that bigger airline is Etihad, we are not sure 1, what is the advantage for AM, and 2, what advantage will Etihad get for its 49%? There is a presumption that Etihad brings operational efficiency-ergo-profits to its new associates. So far, however, this is not the case. Air Berlin is still losing traffic, India’s Jet Airways is up and down, Australia’s Virgin Australia is finding business tough.
  Perhaps the closest to AM to follow is Air Seychelles - also based on a small island group and driven by leisure traffic - and owned 40% by Etihad since 2012. AS has been profitable for three years 2012-4 - US$3.2mn +6.7% in 2014. It sold 412k seats in 2014 and about 20% more in 2015.
  AM cannot feed much traffic into Etihad, because its main market (Malta) is too small. But given the AS example, AM would certainly start a route to Abu Dhabi; AM stopped its own Dubai route in 2001, in September, although the 9/11 attacks in the US were not the reason.
5. Another option is for AM to become something-like a mini-Emirates. Just as Dubai is an inter-regional hub, so then Malta could become an intra-regional hub. This way, it would operate flights Lyon-Cairo, Manchester-Tripoli, Barcelona-Amman, Prague-Marrakech, Madrid-Cyprus. All via Malta on Air Malta. Start slowly and build up.
  We have some track record on this. During a long-ago conversation with the late Maurice Flanagan, founding CEO of Emirates, we suggested that he should make the airline a one-stop-shop between secondary points in Europe into Asia. We have no idea if that was already the plan for his airline, or whether he more-or-less implemented my idea.

Etihad calls itself the airline of the UAE. It is not; it is the airline of Abu Dhabi, one (albeit the richest) emirate in the 7-emirate UAE. In the same way, and despite its name, Emirates is not UAE’s airline, but Dubai’s.

*Notes:
-FSA = full-service-airline. Offering first/business/economy, travel agency bookings, meals/bookings/baggage/cancellations included, etc. As its name indicates – full service.
-LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline; see next.) An FSA but with lower operating costs - cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for instance), fewer fare types, which may have first and business cabins, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc. If relevant, usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.
-NFA = no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: market freedom in terms of routes and aircraft choice; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; fares that are extremely low when booked at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no service frills; single economy-class cabin; no seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more.

Net-Value Travel-Tech-Stocks Index
5 February 2016
Our ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in January, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 82. Last month 97. (Base: Dec 14.)

Travel business 2015 totals
4 February 2016
-Dubai airport passengers handled 78.0mn +10.7%.
-IATA reports RPKs +6.5% - international +6.5%, domestic +6.3%.
-Lyon airport passengers handled 8.70mn +2.8%.
-Pegasus seats sold 22.3mn +13.2%.

Travel business updates
3 February 2016
-Dubai airport December passengers handled 7.05mn +8.5%.
-IAG (AerLingus British Iberia Vueling) January RPKs +11.9%.
-IATA reports December RPKs +5.4% - international +5.6%, domestic +5.1%.
-JAL Group Q4 (Oct-Dec) international RPKs +6.1%, domestic +1.2%.
-Ryanair Q4 (Oct-Dec) seats sold 24.9mn +20%.
-STR and Tourism Economics forecast US hotels 2016 occupancy 65.9% +0.6%, average room rate US$125.30 +4.4%.

US visitor arrivals
2 February 2016
US visitor data for 2015 has been published later than usual. Thus this wrap-up for half-year 2015:
-Visitors 36.0mn +4%. Overseas (excluding Canada Mexico) 17.3mn +9%.
-In order of size: Canada -6%, Mexico +8%, UK +14%, Japan +2%, China +18%, Germany +14%, Brazil +5%, Korea +20%, Australia +11%, France +4%.
-Leisure travel was 80%, business travel 17%. Ecuador 93% leisure, Argentina 92%, Brazil 91%, Venezuela 90%. But Germany 74%, Netherlands 70%.
-Top-3 airports (New York JFK, Miami, Los Angeles) took 41.4% share, -0.1pt.

Travel Stocks
1 February 2016
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in January. Airlines: biggest growth, AirAsia +10%; biggest fall, China Southern -22%. Hotels: Sands +3%, NH -24%. Others: Kuoni +14%, Hertz -36%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +27%; biggest fall, Southwest -13%. Hotels: Regal +18%, Banyan -10%. Others: Kuoni +19%, eDreams -17%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 154, AsPac 83, Eur 124, US 255.  Index previous month: WW 176, AsPac 89, Eur 137, US 304.
  NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 82; previous month 97.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Istanbul +2%; biggest fall, Hong Kong -10%. Previous month: Wellington +4%; biggest fall, New York -3%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

Asia Pacific inbound
29 January 2016
Our calculation of AsPac visitor arrivals for latest-month, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +5.1%.

Travel business 2015 totals
28 January 2016
-Brisbane airport international passengers handled 5.16mn +4.8%.
-Budapest airport passengers handled 10.3mn +12.5%.
-Cathay Pacific + Dragonair seats sold +7.9%
-Frankfurt airport passengers handled 61.0mn +2.5%.
-Melbourne airport international passengers handled 8.7mn +9%.
-Miami airport passengers handled 44.3mn +8.3%.
-Singapore airport passengers handled 55.4mn +2.5%.
-STR reports US hotels occupancy 65.6% +1.7%; average room rate US$120.01 +4.4%.

Travel Indices
27 January 2016
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in December for US hotel companies was 3095, -5.7%.
  The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for December shows: World 176, AsPac 89, Eur 137, US 304.
  The ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in December, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 97.
  The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at January 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ is based on 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ is based on 100 at December 2014.

Travel business updates
26 January 2016
-Cathay Pacific + Dragonair December seats sold 2.93mn +5.8%.
-Easyjet Q4 seats sold 16.1mn +8.1%.
-Frankfurt December airport passengers handled 4.1mn +2.1%.
-IATA reports November international seats sold +3.2%.
-Singapore airport December passengers handled 5.29mn +3.9%.
-US November international seats sold +8%.
-STR reports US hotels Q4 occupancy 60.5% +1.2%; average room rate US$118.88 +3.6%.
-The US pre-approved security-screening program, for US nationals only, now has 2mn people registered. Started in December 2013, it targets 25mn registered – but does not put a date on this.

ATF-2016 review
25 January 2016
Reports on the 10 destinations of Asean, collected from the ATF-2016 last week in Manila, Philippines.
Notes:
1. Asean = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, BR = Brunei, BU = Myanmar, CN = China, ID = Indonesia, IN = India, KH = Cambodia, KR = Korea, LA = Laos, MY = Malaysia, PH = Philippines, SG = Singapore, TH = Thailand, VN = Vietnam.
2. Different reports on these are published in the Europe edition of the travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-reports, and on the Foxtrots blog, Trottings blog. The reports here are more product-related.
Indonesia.
-Visitor arrivals. The DMO (destination marketing organisation) puts 2015 total at “just over” 10mn, of which 45% were from Asean. This looks incorrect.
-Now said to be visa-free for 15 countries; although some sources give 90 countries. Target is 120 countries this year.
-The DMO says its marketing budget is 3-times higher this year; actual not given.
-Marketing theme to stay as Wonderful Indonesia. The DMO says this was No47 in one travel branding rating; below IN, JP, SG, but above Hong Kong, KR, MY, TH. There are a number of surprises in that unsourced list.
-Revoked a requirement for yachts to get approval to enter the destination. Expects US$500m from 5000 yachts in 2019. No comparative data given.
-Revoked regulation that prevented cruisers from travelling between some different ports in ID. These include ports for Bali, Jakarta, Medan, Surabaya.
-Plans to build airports in 15 cities, improve/extend runways in 27 airports, renovate 13 passenger terminals, build marinas.
-After terrorist attack in January in Jakarta, DMO has listed phased response. But as it asserts there were ‘zero’ cancellations, its statements lack credibility.
-PATA due to hold its travel mart in Jakarta this September. ID’s DMO may try to merge the Travel Indonesia mart into PATA’s mart.
Asean.
-An Asean tourism strategic plan introduced for 2016-25. We plan to publish our review in our March newsletter next month but the strategy reads like a restatement of what is presumed to have been existing – and not something new.
-By 2025 GDP contribution of Asean’s visitor business “could” grow from 12% to 15%.
-Visitor spend “could” grow from US$877 to US$1500. That would be an AAGR (annual average growth rate) of 6.1% over the nine years.
-Grow length-of-stay from 6.3 nights to 8 – that would be an AAGR of 3.1%, and would thus help that planned growth in spend.
-Politics. There is an Asean+3 (CN, JP, KR) cooperation agreement, but a separate one for IN. It has never been clear why IN is not part of the three. Also the travel part of Asean will not even discuss the possibility of other markets or destinations (such as Hong Kong, Macau, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Timor) joining its association under ‘Asean-plus’.
-Estimates 2015 visitor arrivals at 98.8mn +7.3%. Says intraAsean represented a 42% share. It notes this share unchanged, not apparently realising that this infers failure for its earlier strategy to grow intraAsean’s share. Earlier in the conference, Asean representatives put the share at 46-48%.
-Plans to launch a program, Visit Asean 50, at the ITB Berlin exhibition in March.

ATF-2016 review
22 January 2016
Reports on the 10 destinations of Asean, collected from the ATF-2016 in Manila, Philippines.
Notes:
1. Asean = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, BR = Brunei, BU = Myanmar, CN = China, ID = Indonesia, IN = India, KH = Cambodia, KR = Korea, LA = Laos, MY = Malaysia, PH = Philippines, SG = Singapore, TH = Thailand, VN = Vietnam.
2. Different reports on these are published in the Europe edition of the travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-reports, and on the Foxtrots blog, Trottings blog. The reports here are more product-related.
Brunei.
-Visitor arrivals. By air: 200,989 all-2014; 105,789 Jan-Jun 2015; growth not given.
-The Asma hotel changed its name to Parkview in 2015.
-Where it cannot grow non-islamic visitors, it has tried to adjust the packages for other markets.
-Building a 30km Temburong bridge, linking Temburong and Brunei-Muarua. Should cut to 20mins, a journey which currently takes 90mins by land or 30mins by boat; should be ready in 2019.
-The 607m first phase of the Sungai Brunei bridge due to open mid-2016.
-Some border times open longer, from 2200 now to 0000, easing links to/from Sarawak.
Asean.
-‘Asean for Asean’:
  -Introduced A4A to promote intraAsean tourism – although this has actually been a longterm strategy. There is no separate budget for this activity. IntraAsean share of arrivals in the 10 destinations put at 46-48%.
  -Each destination to choose its theme to promote in Asean markets – for instance, ID has chosen health and wellness, SG cruise. Choices seem arbitrary, although it is clearly not easy to promote one theme for nine markets, of which many have great differences.
  -Have already been joint fam trips – ID/MY/SG/TH, TH/VN. And SG is producing a monthly Asean cruise e-newsletter. Some websites also include something on other destinations – on ID PH in the case of MY’s website.
  -There is a stunning lack of clarity in this program. Nominally to promote intra-Asean travel, the authorities also show plans for promotional activity in Europe and the US.
-13% AAGR over 2013-15 in cruise passengers.
-Visas. Most still claim to be visa-free for all Asean nationals, but this is incorrect. MY, for instance, requires visas from BU nationals; it hopes to change this in “about one year”.
Thailand.
-Visitor arrivals. 2015 29.9mn +20%. Counts 10,000 cruise passengers/year, which is small; improved facilities in Phuket should be ready this year.
-2015 visitor revenue US$45bn (at US$1 to B32) +23%. Forecasts US$48.8bn for this year. That would be +8.3%. When we noted that, given the push on luxury, that looked low, the DMO said it could be 10%. This, unfortunately, makes the forecasting look like a game.
-New design for its ‘Amazing Thailand’ logo.
-New video, promoting luxury travel, with a puzzling title – ‘Life is Luck, Make It’. And also ‘Where Life Rules Everything’. In 2015 it was ‘Discover Thainess’, which was more of a cultural emphasis.
-The DMO’s promotion focus from this year will be to make TH a “Quality Leisure Destination” - measured by visitor spend, length of stay. It says it will need to provide a “quality” tourism product, and will do this by “[upgrading its] tourism management efforts systemwide”. We do not see how ‘product’ and ‘management’ can be connected to provide the desired result.
-The government is currently highly politicised, and the DMO matches this, leading it to emphasise that “tourism is good for rural areas and SMEs”, but omitting to say it is also good for cities and big companies.
-As well as luxury, other targets are medical tourism, anti-ageing, female travellers with shopping, spa, etc. As with many DMOs, its ‘focus’ includes nearly everything, and thus are no longer a ‘focus’.
-The DMO wants to boost domestic tourism (by Thais, not the substantial and good-spend foreign residents). Details are vague – “we plan to launch various measures and promotional campaigns through cooperation with related organisations, the private sector, and airlines”. Until this is clarified we cannot judge if the program will achieve its objectives.
-The DMO is also doing more to encourage visitors in Thailand to visit BU LA KH VN. It has started with a 5-day road-tour for TH and KH, including using new cross-border highways.
-This year, TTM (the travel trade exhibition for TH) will be opened for other Asean destinations to promote their products. Also, it will be held outside Bangkok for the first time, in Chiangmai.

ATF-2016 review
21 January 2016
Reports on the 10 destinations of Asean, collected from the ATF-2016 in Manila, Philippines.
Notes:
1. Asean = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, BR = Brunei, BU = Myanmar, CN = China, ID = Indonesia, IN = India, KH = Cambodia, KR = Korea, LA = Laos, MY = Malaysia, PH = Philippines, SG = Singapore, TH = Thailand, VN = Vietnam.
2. Different reports on these are published in the Europe edition of the travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-reports, and on the Foxtrots blog, Trottings blog. The reports here are more product-related.
Cambodia.
-Visitor arrivals. 2015 4.8mn +6%. Now has 100,000 hotel rooms.
-Infrastructure is improving; has liberal aviation policy, visa-on-arrival, and eVisa. All border-crossing points now provide VoA.
-Aviation. Cambodian Airlines plans flights to the US. Phnom Penh airport being expanded to reach 2mn passenger capacity with a 3000m runaway; details and dates not given.
-Promotes key sales points as stability, harmony, lack of social conflicts. That might be challenged, but it shows how far the destination has moved since the Killing Fields of the 1970s.
-June’s Mekong Tourism Forum is due to be staged in Sihanoukville, Cambodia.
Laos.
-Visitor arrivals. 3.43mn Jan-Sep 2015, +13%; estimate 5mn for all-2015, which would be +20%.
-Has visa-on-arrival at 24 borders, even land borders. Also, visa validity extended from 15 days to one month.
-Now concentrating on ecotourism.
-Because of new direct flights Seoul-Vientiane, visitor arrivals from KR grew 93%. But the DMO has also said +39%; period not known.
Malaysia.
-Visitor arrivals. Jan-Sep 2015: 19.1mn -7.6%. Top-5 markets were falling – SG -8%, ID -5%, CN -1%, TH -1%, BR -6%.
-Visitor arrivals in 2015 “not very good”, said DMO spokesperson. But this is a result of its longtime politically-charged policy to boost its visitor count above SG’s – by counting land arrivals from SG (SG does not do the same in the opposite direction). No longer is SG’s market is a boost; the fall from SG was 8.9%.
-Visitor spend. US$11.6bn (at US$1 to MR4.41) -1.3%.
-Has 4070 hotels and 262,000 rooms. Hotels due: in Kuala Lumpur St Regis this April, W 2017, Four Seasons 2017, Jumeirah in 2021, and St Regis Langkawi April.
-Has a few Asean-specific programs, such as Go Asean, Asean Tourism Packages, Asean Adventure Travel Booklet.
-Homestay accommodation, introduced in 1995, won WTO’s Ulysses prize for innovation in 2012.
-Theme parks. Nickelodeon opened in 2015 near Kuala Lumpur. Movie Animation Park Studios in Ipoh due this year. 20th Century Fox in Genting Highlands due 2017.
-Sports Tourism. F1 car race switched from April to October, to run two weeks after Singapore’s F1.
-Shopping. Special sales events in Mar, Jul-Aug, Nov-Jan. Spending on shopping grew 9%. New shopping centres include: Mitsui Outlet Park 6km from Kuala Lumpur airport, but no opening date yet; another, but 10km from airport, KL International Outlet, due July; Shore Shopping Gallery in Melaka, now open; Genting Premium Outlet due late-2016.
-Ground transport. 140kph high-speed rail KL-SG; construction due to start 2017 and finish in 2022. This is too far in the future to assume it will not be delayed.
-New flights in 2015. Air China, All Nippon, British Airways (restart), Rayani Air (to Langkawi), all into KL. Air France stopped, and even Emirates reduced.
-The DMO also has a problem with its budget because of the fall in the value of Malaysia’s currency. However, it will maintain its visitor-revenue forecast – even though it is based on the old exchange rate. It also says it is keeping its promotional plan. However, both these things must change given the size of the exchange-rate change (from around MR3.05 in 2014 to US$1, to around MR4.40 now); it is a futile to keep them unchanged.
Myanmar.
-Visitor arrivals. 2015 4.68mn +52%; by air 1.31mn +15%. Opening for leisure tourism started in 2011.
-Now 1267 hotels with 49,584 rooms, of which about 5000 are in the capital Naypyidaw.
-Projects based on Tourism Master Plan, launched in 2013, funded by Norway and ADB.
-Program in relation to an application for Bagan’s 2000 pagodas to get on Unesco’s ‘world heritage’ list.
-It has 21 protected destinations for ecotourism. Visitor themes are heritage trails, cave tourism, eco/marine tourism.
-Naypyidaw, presently short of tourist attractions, will be the best destination in BU, says the DMO. It says some attractions will be added – those listed so far are minor, and it will be hard if not impossible for the capital to overtake Bagan, Mandalay, Yangon in the next 20 years.]
-DMO says it wants “value tourism, not mass tourism”. It also says that it has become more aware of the importance of the environment, and so it is looking at how to incorporate that into its plans.
-Now nationals of 100 countries can apply for eVisas. Also, the visa fee has been reduced from about US$40 to about US$25.
-A new government is due to take over this month, so almost certainly there will be some changes to the plans announced.
Vietnam.
-Visitor arrivals. 2015 7.94mn visitors; only +0.2%, although AAGR over 10 years is a good 9.3%.
-Visa exemption now for 22 countries. The DMO wants no-visa to expand to other countries, such as CN IN Australia New Zealand.
-This year designated Visit Vietnam Year.
-Although VN already has two travel exhibitions* - one too many – a third has been started. *The privately-operation event in Ho Chi Minh City focuses on inbound tourism; the government-funded Hanoi event focuses on inbound and outbound; and the new event, in Danang in June, on beach tourism, and MICE.
-Vietnam Airlines.
  -In 2015 became privatised, with ANA its strategy partner. This may be a poor choice of partner – because ANA’s own strategy has changed a few times, including that for no-frills-airlines (it was a partner for Air Asia Japan).
  -Still state-influenced it seems, as it has ordered 14 A350s and 19 B787s. A private company is unlikely to buy two competitor aircraft types – with attendant additional costs for pilot training, spare parts, etc.
-The room count in Danang has grown from 8000 to 18,000 over five years. It counted 4.7mn visitors +23% (domestic and international, registered in hotels) in 2015.

ATF-2016 review
20 January 2016
Reports on the 10 destinations of Asean, collected from the ATF-2016 in Manila, Philippines.
Notes:
1. Asean = Association of Southeast Asian Nations, BR = Brunei, BU = Myanmar, CN = China, ID = Indonesia, IN = India, KH = Cambodia, KR = Korea, LA = Laos, MY = Malaysia, PH = Philippines, SG = Singapore, TH = Thailand, VN = Vietnam.
2. Different reports on these are published in the Europe edition of the travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-reports, and on the Foxtrots blog, Trottings blog. The reports here are more product-related.
Philippines.
-Visitor arrivals. 2015 5.36mn +10.9%. Cruise arrivals 69,802 +16.0% in 2015.
-New markets - looking at IN and Middle East. Looking at designating more outlets as halal-friendly.
-Visitor spend US$5.00bn, a disappointing +3.3%.
-10% of jobs are in the visitor business; we believe this is actually all-travel, not just inbound.
-Bohol. New Hennan and Be resorts opened in 2015. Panglao airport due 2017. Heritage walk.
-Palawan. Improved Puerto Princesa airport due 2018. Cebu airport has been privatised, and there are plans for a new terminal. Cebu Pacific plans Cebu-Los Angeles route, and Emirates Dubai-Cebu.
-Making comprehensive efforts to building and improving roads to destinations, expanding airports. For its four cruise terminals, it is now studying new requirements.
-Continues to work on congestion in Metro Manila, and although there have been improvements, it remains bad. Both the national government and MM provide funding for Manila.
Singapore.
-Visitor arrivals. With just one month to count, SG’s cautious DMO still estimated full-year 2015 total with a wide range - 15.1-15.5mn, which means a 0-3% growth (Jan-Nov was +0.4%). We venture 15.2mn +0.8%.
-Visitor spend estimate for 2015 US$18.5-18.9bn (at US$1 to S$1.27) +0-2%.
-Over next five years, 10,000 more hotel rooms are expected to open. New hotels in 2015: Aqueen Paya Lebar, Genting Jurong, Park Alexandra, South Beach, Vagabond. Due this year: Four Points, Holiday Inn Express Katong, Ibis Styles, Indigo, M Social, Patina.
-Campaigns etc:
  -Singapore Inside Out – on culture. Travelling showcase of contemporary creative talents and their works, to Beijing, London, New York, Singapore.
  -Golden Jubilee. US$15.7mn based on SG’s celebration of 50 years as an independent country*. National pride has resulted in marketers thinking there is a sizeable number of non-Singaporeans that want to celebrate SG’s birthday by visiting it. *Details are complicated but 50-years is not quite historically correct. Singapore became effectively independent in 1959, then part of Malaysia 1963-65, and then fully independent in 1965.
  -Others in 2015 for different markets: Australia (“Get lost and find the real Singapore”); CN (“New discoveries”; 3.8mn views); IN (“Memories that bind”); music campaign for PH (“See where the world is heading”; 1.2mn views); TH (“Experience many worlds in one place”); VN (“New fun is Singapore-Made”); worldwide (“Singapore Invites”; 700,000 website visits, 14,000 entries). No data on views where none shown.
  -A few trade groups have teamed up with the DMO for campaigns. US$27.6mn with Singapore’s airport group, two years. US$15.7mn with Singapore Airlines and the airport group, two years. With Trip Advisor; value and period not given. With the Royal Caribbean cruise company and the airport group; value and period not given, but expected to attract 170,000 visitors over 2015-8 spending US$78.7mn. A to-be-expected ‘partnership’ with the local convention management association and the exhibition and convention bureau.
  -DMO has signed multi-year partnership with some internet groups in CN - Alitrip, Tunio, Dianping, Mafengwo.
  -Two which the DMO lists, but which are more for local than overseas visitors. Hotel Productivity Centre; resource centre for hotels. ‘Keepers’, a ‘pop-up’ store on Orchard Road selling goods from 113 designers and artisans. 220,000 shoppers visited over 16 months. This count looks low and, of course, most were probably residents not visitors.
-New training and development programs for tourist guides.
-Also US$7.87mn ‘Step Up’ fund – to encourage companies to improve or increase their tourism offer for SG.
-TUI Cruises, the cruise division of Germany’s big tour operator, has made SG its cruise base.
-Sport:
  -The F1 car race brings in about US$118mn annually* in visitor revenue from the event. *Bizarrely the DMO excludes 2009 data because the figures were low! As it has not excluded the highest, we have recalculated the annual average to US$100mn, based on the overall visitor fall in 2009. On our data, this indicates around 100,000 visitors annually – which looks good.
  -A world tennis final ran in October.
  -Due this year: HSBC women golf tournament; HSBC rugby sevens.
-Culture: In 2015 it opened the Indian Heritage Centre, the renovated National Museum, the renovated Asian Civilisation Museum (phase two due next month), the renovated National Gallery. Due this year: Chinatown Heritage Centre.
-The Asia version of a surprisingly-popular TV program, MasterChef, is operating from SG.
-Airport. T4 is due to open in 2017 (16mn passenger capacity), and T5 planned for the mid-2020s – for 50mn passengers, almost as much as the current total. In 2015, we calculate the airport counted 55mn +2% passengers.
-Shopping.
  -DMO says that 40% of visitors to Christmas Wonderland fair were from overseas.
  -Changi Jewel, big complex (including a hotel) in front of T1 at the airport. Due 2018.
-Mandai – what we call a city jungle, and what the DMO calls a conservation hub, educational and research attraction - expected to be ready in in phases from 2020.
-Plans for a Jurong Lake development, a new Central Business District, towards the southwest of the island. This obviously is more of interest to local residents but also business visitors.
-Questions.
  -DMO says SG is trying to do something about the haze – which must be damaging the visitor potential, ironically including from the market that is causing the problem, ID.
  -Strangely, SG has not copied many cities, including many in Asia, to encourage the use of bicycles. As a largely flat territory, this could be good for tourists. The DMO shows little interest in doing anything.

ATF 2016 in Manila, Hotel-room pipeline
19 January 2016
ATF 2016 in Manila
The ATF Travex travel-exhibition-part of ATF 2016 is due to open tomorrow.
Registered are 2620 delegates – including 1000 exhibitors , 457 buyers , 175 media; 500 of buyers and media are paid-for by revenue from the exhibitors and some suppliers in Manila. The Philippines has 175 exhibitors.
  The 3-day Travex, due to end on January 22, has scheduled 70 official sessions. There are also 10 post-event tours (usually, ATFs have fewer than three) over 23-26th. Cost is US$150.
  The destination, which had a Visit Philippines Year for 2015, is repeating that this year with what it calls VPA (Visit the Philippines Again). It says VPY was a “huge success”; we estimate visitor growth in 2015 was 12%.
Hotel-room pipeline
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for December, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline has grown: World +13.9%, US +13.6%, AsPac +7.5%, Eur +16.2%.

Travel business 2015 totals
18 January 2016
-ACI reports Europe airport passengers handled November +4.6%.
-Athens airport passengers handled 18.1mn passengers +19%.
-Austrian seats sold 10.8mn -3%.
-Brussels seats sold 7.5mn +12.1%.
-Brussels airport passengers handled 23.5mn +7%.
-Brussels Charleroi airport passengers handled 6.96mn +8%.
-Copenhagen airport passengers handled 26.6mn +3.8%.
-Delta overtook United in 2015 to become 2nd-largest US airline by RPKs, after American.
-Easyjet seats sold 69.8mn +6.9%.
-Etihad seats sold 17.4mn +17%.
-Hawaiian seats sold 10.7mn +4.7%.
-IAG (Aer-Lingus British Iberia Vueling) seat sales 95mn. Growth not given; we estimate +9%.
-London Heathrow airport passengers handled 75mn +2.2%.
-London Stansted airport passengers handled 22.6mn +13%.
-Lufthansa Group seats sold 107.7mn +1.6%.
-Southwest RPKs +8.8%.
-US travel agencies air ticket sales US$88.3bn -1.5%; ticket transactions 155mn +6.2%.
-WTO reports visitor arrivals 1.18bn +4.4%.

Travel business updates
15 January 2016
-Air France-KLM December seats sold 6.2mn -1.1%.
-American December RPKs +1.5%.
-Copenhagen December airport passengers handled 2mn +12.5%.
-Easyjet December seats sold 4.85mn +4.6%.
-London Heathrow December airport passengers handled 5.9mn. Growth not given; we calculate -0.4%.
-IAG (Aer-Lingus British Iberia Vueling) December RPKs +3.8%.
-IATA reports November world RPKs +5.9%.
-SAS December seats sold 1.9mn +2.1%.
-Southwest December RPKs +8.6%.
-United December RPKs +1.5%.
-US travel agencies December air ticket sales US$5.3bn -3.9%.

Indices - travel stocks, US travel numbers
14 January 2016
Index, travel stocks
The November ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 176; AsPac 84; Europe 133; US 311. (Base: Dec 06.)
Index, travel numbers, US
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Oct +5P; Sep +5.0P; Aug +3.9; Jul +4.4; Jun +3.9; May +4.0; Apr +2.8; Mar +3.9; Feb +4.2; Jan +2.9. 2014: Dec +4.8; Nov +3.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Index, travel numbers; Asia Pacific, Europe
13 January 2016
Asia Pacific
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Oct +5E; Sep +3.8P; Aug +2.8; Jul +5.5; Jun +1.4; May +6.3; Apr +3.4; Mar +4.9; Jan +3.2. 2014: Dec +4.3; Nov +2.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)
Europe
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Oct +7E; Sep +2.7P; Aug +4.2; Jul +5.8; Jun +3.2; May +7.1; Apr +6.4; Mar +6.6; Feb +7.2; Jan +6.8. 2014: Dec +5.5; Nov +6.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel business updates
12 January 2016
-Dubai airport November passengers handled 6.01mn +8.1%.
-IATA reports December airline share prices +3% against November.
-IATA reports November RPKs +5.9%.
-US visitor arrivals June 6.2mn +4%.

Asia Pacific outbound
11 January 2016
Our calculation of AsPac resident departures for latest-month September, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +5.6%. Slowed by slowing growth from China (our estimates).

Aviation business updates
8 January 2016
-2015: AEA member airlines seats sold 307mn +4.3%.
-Aeroflot Group November seats sold 3.0mn +13.8%, Aeroflot 2.1mn +11.5%.
-2015: Amsterdam airport passengers handled 58.2mn +6.0%.
-2015: Emirates seats sold 51.3mn +9%.
-2015: ICAO reports worldwide seats sold 3.5bn +6.4%.
-2015: Icelandair seats sold 3.1mn, +18%.
-JAL seats sold for the new year period (Dec 25 to Jan 3) 269,366 +4.3% international, 999,413 +1.4% domestic.

TBA Travel-Tech-Stocks Index
7 January 2016
Our ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in December, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 97. Last month 100. (Base: Dec 14.)

Index, travel numbers, world
6 January 2016
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Oct +6E; Sep +4.6P; Aug +4.3; Jul +5.8; Jun +2.6; May +5.4; Apr +4.2; Mar +4.9; Feb +4.6; Jan +4.2. 2014: Dec +5.8; Nov +4.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel business updates
5 January 2016
-ICAO reports 2015 air seats sold 3.5bn +6.4%.
-STR reports US November hotel occupancy 59.4% +1.1%, average room rate US$115.44 +3.2%.
-US nationals October overseas travel 2.4mn +9%, within North America 3.0mn +11%.
-Q3 spend on all US travel products and services was +4.3%.

Travel Stocks
4 January 2016
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in December. Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +27%; biggest fall, Southwest -13%. Hotels: Regal +18%, Banyan -10%. Others: Kuoni +19%, eDreams -17%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +27%; biggest fall, Thai -26%. Hotels: Jinjiang +22%, Starwood -11%. Others: Kuoni +15%, Avis -29%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 176, AsPac 89, Eur 137, US 304.  Index previous month: WW 176, AsPac 84, Eur 133, US 311.
  NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 97; previous month 100.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Wellington +4%; biggest fall, New York -3%. Previous month: Dublin +6%; biggest fall, Istanbul -6%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

TBA All-Travel Index
31 December 2015
The August ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +6% over the same month in 2014. Previous month +9%.

Seat sales by world’s top-3 no-frills-airlines
30 December 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top no-frills-airlines (in each of 3 regions) in October, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: (Q3 only for) Air Asia +19.9%; Ryanair +15.2%; Southwest +10.0%.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
29 December 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in October, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +1.6% for AF+KL+A5, +9.6% BA+EI+IB+VY, +3.9% LH+LX+OS.

PAGPFT; France’s Cote D’Azur.
28 December 2015
PAGPFT (pronounced PAG-puffed); People Are Getting Paid For This.
  All the important people from the inbound travel business in France’s Cote D’Azur, and Air France-KLM, have just finished their get-together to relaunch promotion for the region. They told us they are focusing on four longhaul outbound markets: in alphabetical order, Brazil, China, Russia, US.
  Whoops.
  Those clever people said they got the market data from their 2013/4 report on the inbound business into the region. We think that report shows figures for 2012.
  Is it really that hard to think that maybe business trends have changed since then? We don’t have all the data, but we think Brazil total outbound grew 13% in 2013, falling to +2% in 2014, but perhaps -28% this year. And Russia grew 25% in 2013, but then fell 6% in 2014, and as much as -30% this year. Singapore might now be a bigger market than Brazil!

Airport passengers in Europe
24 December 2015
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for July, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +13.3% (all airports +6.6%). Last month: +13.6% (all airports +3.4%).

World hotel results
23 December 2015
The September hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 0.2; AsPac -2.0; Europe 0.5; US 2.2. Previous month: World 1.5; AsPac 0.1; Europe 2.6; US 1.7.

WYSKs – what you should know
22 December 2015
A short selection of WYSKs from the data-table-sets in the current issues of the Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter. See that edition for full details, and others:
Aviation.
T1. Airlines. First-three-quarters for FSA (full-service-airline) Turkish seat sales slower but still a strong +12%. Among combines, AF group +3%, BA+EI+IB+VY +10%, the big LH group +2%. Among NFAs (no-frills-airlines) andhybrids YTD, Air Berlin still falling -5%, Easyjet still a solid +7%, Ryanair still fast at +16%. Outside Europe, Air Asia +11%, Southwest +7%.  T2. Airline associations. First-three-quarters for AEA member airlines in Europe; seat sales +4%. YTD for others - US +2%, Asia Pacific +9%, World (RPKs) +7%.  T3. Airports. YTD passengers for all-Europe total +5%, international +5%, ‘low-fare’ +14%. Most data supplied us by ACI.  T4. Air passenger traffic. YTD for traffic to/from Paris +6%. First-three-Qs for US +5%. YTD for Germany +5%, UK +7%.
Hotels.
T9. First-three-quarters.
Inbound.
T14. Visitor spending. Updates for Austria, Belgium, France a worrying -8%, Germany +2%, Italy +6%, Netherlands, Russia an out-of-favour -26%, Spain +3%, Switzerland, Turkey an out-of-peaceful -9%, UK +4%, extracted from WTO data.  T15. Visitor arrivals. Updates for Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, extracted from WTO data. Totals for cities – updates for Berlin +8%, Madrid +11%, Paris +1%, extracted from Austria’s Tourmis data. Domestic arrival updates for Austria, Belgium, and for cities Berlin +3%, Madrid +3%, Paris -2%, extracted from Austria’s Tourmis data.
Outbound.
T6. Outbound travel spending. Updates for Finland, extracted from WTO data.  T7. Outbound travel totals. Updates for Bulgaria, Czech R, France +8%, Greece, Ireland, Netherlands +1%, Portugal, extracted from Eurostat data.
Others.
T5. Travel stock market prices. Biggest surprise is heavy 13% fall for Swiss-based Lastminute. Good results for Paris-based companies Accor +7%, Airbus +15%, Air France +9%.  T8. Internet - Net-Value Travel-Tech Index at 123.  T11. Stock price index for Europe 134, US 339, and the World 187, based on Dec 06.  T13. Economic indicators; Q3 for Spain +3.2%, UK +2.0%.

WYSKs – what you should know
21 December 2015
A short selection of WYSKs from the data-table-sets in the current issues of the Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter. See that edition for full details, and others:
Aviation.
T1. Selected city-pair results. Updates for Singapore YTD +2%, Tokyo Q1 -2%.  T2. Country-pair results. Updates for France YTD +7%, Germany +5%.  T3. Airlines traffic. First-three-quarters seat sales for FSAs (full-service-airlines) for Air New Zealand, Japan +33%, Jet, Thai.  T5. Airline results by region. First-three-Qs forairline membersof AAPA (seat sales +9%).  T6. Airport passenger traffic. YTD for all-Asia Pacific, total +9%, international also +9%.
Hotels.
T18. First-three-quarters.
Inbound.
T8. Visitor arrivals. Updates for China (total +4%, foreigners -1%), Fiji, Guam, Hawaii, Hong Kong -3%, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Macau, Malaysia, Maldives, Marianas, Philippines, Samoa, Singapore -1%, Sri Lanka, Tahiti, Thailand +27%, Vietnam -3%. Asia Pacific regional growth YTD at 4% (our estimate). City/state arrivals updates for Bali +6%.  T9. Running 12-month totals for China – only now back at level of five years earlier.
Outbound.
T10. Running 12-month totals show Korea is the big mover.  T11. Outbound travel. Updates for Australia +3%, China (our estimate; +9%), India (our estimate; +14%), Japan, Korea +19%, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan +11%. All calculated by TBA from DMO/STO data.
Others.
T12. Travel stock indices and prices. Our Index shows Asia Pacific still weak, Europe good, US very good, helping World to show good results on end-2000 prices.  T15. Internet activity; only 7% annual growth for satcom units?  T16. Economic indicators in Asia Pacific: China now slower than IndiaT17. Economic indicators for market producers: Japan and Euroland are the slow producers.

Travel industry updates
18 December 2015
-Copenhagen airport November passengers handled 2.07mn +12.2%.
-Frankfurt airport November passengers handled 3.9mn -11.3%.
-IATA forecasts 2016 seats sold 3.8bn +6.9%, following +6.7% forecast for 2015.
-JAL Group forecasts for the new year period (Dec 25 to Jan 3) 268,464 seats sold, +2.7%, on its international flights.
-London Heathrow airport November passengers handled 5.58mn +2%.
-Cathay Pacific + Dragonair November seats sold 2.78mn +8.1%.
-ARC reports US travel agency sales Jan-Nov US$83bn -1.4%.
-US May visitor arrivals 6.8mn +8%.
-Visitors to the US in October spent: US$11.1bn, -0.1%, on purchases of travel and tourism-related goods and services; US$3.2bn, -12%, on fares received by US airlines from international visitors; US$3.9bn, +10%, on spending for educational and health-related tourism, along with all spending by border- seasonal- and other shortterm-workers.

Index, travel stocks
17 December 2015
The October ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 187; AsPac 88; Europe 134; US 339. (Base: Dec 06.)

Hotel-room pipeline, Travel Indices
16 December 2015
Hotel-room pipeline
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for November, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline has grown: World +7.2%, US +10.7%, AsPac +3.1%, Eur -2.5%.
Travel Indices
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in November for US hotel companies was 3283, -5.4%.
  The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for November shows: World 176, AsPac 84, Eur 133, US 311.
  The ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in November, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 100.
  The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at January 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ is based on 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ is based on 100 at December 2014.

ATF next month
15 December 2015
Update on ATF (the Asean Travel Forum) scheduled to take place in Manila, Philippines January 18-25th:
-450 exhibiting booths.
-Philippines to showcase 13 regions and 150 exhibition booths.
-100 hosted international media; 75 local media.
-Free pre-show Manila Heritage Tour, January 18&19.
-US$150 post-show tours, January 23-26: World Heritage, Cordillera Heritage, Southern Luzon, El Nido, Palawan, Northern Palawan, Bicol Express, Visayan Charms, Negros and Cebu, Islands to Highlands.

Index, travel numbers, world US Europe Asia Pacific
14 December 2015
(Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)
World
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Sep +4E; Aug +4.4P; Jul +5.9; Jun +2.6; May +5.3; Apr +4.5; Mar +4.9; Feb +4.6; Jan +4.2. 2014: Dec +5.8; Nov +4.3; Oct +4.5.
US
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Sep +4E; Aug +3.9P; Jul +4.4; Jun +4.0; May +3.6; Apr +3.7; Mar +3.9; Feb +4.2; Jan +2.9. 2014: Dec +4.8; Nov +3.6; Oct +4.5.
Europe
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Sep +5E; Aug +4.4P; Jul +5.6; Jun +3.2; May +7.1; Apr +6.4; Mar +6.6; Feb +7.2; Jan +6.8. 2014: Dec +5.5; Nov +6.1; Oct +3.2.
Asia Pacific
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Sep +4E; Aug +2.8P; Jul +5.5; Jun +1.4; May +6.3; Apr +3.4; Mar +4.9; Jan +3.2. 2014: Dec +4.3; Nov +2.1; Oct +4.0.

Aviation updates
11 December 2015
-ACI reports Europe airport October passengers handled +5.7%.
-Air Berlin November seats sold 1.94mn -3.6%.
-American November RPKs were +4.3%.
-Dubai October passengers handled 6.25mn +4.4%.
-Easyjet November seats sold 4.81mn +9.6%.
-IAG November RPKs were +7.2%.
-IATA reports October worldwide RPKs +7.5%.
-IATA RPK forecasts: 2015 +6.7%, 2016 +6.9%.
-IATA reports November airline share prices -6%.
-Ryanair November seats sold 7.71m +21%.
-SAS November seats sold 2.2mn +3.7%.
-Southwest November RPKs were +13.9%.
-United November RPKs were +4.2%.
-US October international seats sold +9%, Jan-Oct +6%.

Shouting for Ryanair, Travel outlook 2016
10 December 2015
Shouting for Ryanair
Surprisingly, Ryanair is not shouting out about its new achievement. The no-frills-airline’s seat sales grew 21% in November. Nothing greatly unusual in that – except that its growth-spurt started a year earlier. So that 21% is on top of its 22% growth in November 2014!
  That means it has grown almost 50% (actually 48%) over the past two years. Even more impressive is that this is from an airline that is already Europe’s largest.
  It is still smaller though than Southwest, the leading NFA in the US. All-2015 will be about 101mn seat sales for Ryanair, 118mn Southwest.
Travel outlook 2016
There has started to be more than a few negative tugs: economic slowdowns or worse (Brazil, China, Russia); islamic terrorism (Europe, Middle East, Africa); functional disarray in the Middle East (Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey); overwhelming immigration (into Europe); political dysfunction (fiercely partisan politics in the US, plus Carson, Trump).
  Some strong positive turns are needed: return of China to strong economic growth; India's promised boom to actually happen; Russia to reduce perceived belligerence; Brazil to overcome its economic (and now political also) negatives; US politics to become (relatively) sane again; at least one country in the Middle East to start clearly on the road to tolerance; into-Europe immigration numbers to become manageable (10s of 1000s instead of millions?).

ILTM Cannes
9 December 2015
Some product updates from the ILTM exhibition in Cannes last week. Business news reports from some of these organisations were published last week.
Aman, London-based.
-Has 30 hotels. Recent openings include Tokyo this year. Due next: east central Japan, near Nagoya (an onsen, hot springs, 24 suites, due March 2016); Shanghai (26 villa, some of the material (stones and trees) comes from buildings lost when the Yangtze was flooded to create a dam, due 2017).
-Now concentrating on adding properties in the Americas and Europe; it has specific plans for Costa Rica, Mexico.
Como, Singapore-based.
-This little-known group will be 25-years-old in 2016, from when it started with the Halkin hotel in London. It now has 13 hotels with 700 rooms.
-Has opened the Point Yamu Beach Club on an island away from the Phuket resort of the same name.
-To complement its two resorts in Maldives, it now has a 6-berth yacht, which can sail for as long as three days.
-Refurbished its Metropolitan hotel in London.
Doyle, Ireland-based.
-Called the Doyle Collection. Owns and operates in Bristol, Cork, Dublin, London, Washington - more than one in Dublin and London. Sold its hotel in Boston to fund refurbishing at others.
-Despite the small numbers it has two categories - five what it puts at luxury level. London (Bloomsbury, Kensington, Marylebone), Westbury in Dublin, Dupont Circle in Washington. And what it calls ‘urban hotels’ (although the luxury hotels are also in urban areas) - Bristol, Rivoli in Cork, Coke Park in Dublin.
Four Seasons, Canada-based.
-New this year: Bahrain, Cap Ferrat (in the south of France, a takeover), Casablanca, Dubai (Jumeirah), Johannesburg, Moscow (actually in the Red Square), Seoul.
-Due in 2016: Abu Dhabi (Al Mayrah, end-year), Dubai (Financial City, 100 rooms, April), Surfside Florida, Hawaii (Oahu at Ko Olina), Kuwait, Kyoto, London (Ten Treaty, sic, 100 rooms, late-year), New York.
-Others: Madrid 2018.
Langham, Hong Kong-based.
-Has 20 hotels, and 20 planned, in all brands.
-This year launched its Cordis (Latin for ‘of the heart’) brand. It defines this as ‘upscale’. In every Cordis there will be a ‘family room’, which could mean a room with kitchenette.
-Cordis (also awkward: ‘Cordis’s’?) planned - two in Shanghai due 2016, with Hefei, Qingdao due later. Langham expects to have Cordis’s in London, Middle East, New York.
-Also relaunching Eaton, which it describes as a ‘lifestyle’ brand. Has bought six pieces of land around the world, and will announce specifics in mid-2016.
-Its ‘Langham Place’ sub-brand is described as a ‘contemporary’ brand. Is building in Bali (173 rooms, due 2017); Qingdao; Jakarta (2017); Dubai (168 rooms, 2018).
Mandarin Oriental, Hong Kong-based.
-New hotels include two in Beijing, which will give it 10 in Greater China – a definition which includes Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan. Its other projects are Chengdu, Chongqing, Shenzhen.
-Has 11 restaurants with Michelin stars, and 16 stars overall.
-Aims to have what it calls “legendary hotels” in the cities where it has hotels.
Minor, Thailand-based.
-In the past year it has opened in new continents - Europe, South America.
-Bought Tivoli brand hotels in Portugal and South America.
-That brings another brand, when it is already confusing as some hotels/resorts in some brands are similar to those in others. Its brands are Anantara at the top, then in alphabetical order Avani, Elewana, Oaks, Tivoli.
-Anantaras planned: Banana island (20-minute ferry from Doha, Qatar, 141 rooms, now open); Oman (116 rooms, due May 2016); Sri Lanka (at Tangalle, central south coast, 152 villas/suites, due this month); Mozambique (actually an island off the main island, 12 rooms, due January 2016).
-New offers: sky safari in East Africa, with a 10-seat aircraft; Expedition Africa, self-drive with travel in 10-vehicle convoy.
Oberoi, India-based.
-Has 33 hotels.
-Now on what it says is its biggest expansion. Includes: Marrakech (with what are over-large rooms at 200sqm, 87 rooms, due Q2 2016); Ajman (the emirate next to Dubai, and which is being promoted as a Dubai beach hotel, 116 rooms, due August 2016); Chandigarh, India (20-minutes outside the city but called a city resort, 61 villas, due September 2016). All managed, not owned.
Oetker, Germany-based.
-New owners of its hotel in Marrakech this month; refurbishing is planned.
-A 2-year renovation program planned for its Lanesborough in London.
-New: Sao Paulo, 140 rooms, due 2017, management; New York, 170 rooms, due 2018, conversion. Will have equity in NY but it will not say share.
Peninsula, Hong Kong-based.
-In 2016 the company will be 150 years old, although it has only 10 hotels. The founding Kadoorie family is still involved.
-In Paris, one year since it opened, has opened six suites there with gardens and view of the Eiffel Tower.
-Renovating Chicago, as well as offering ‘Keys to Chicago’, where it works with various attractions in the city, such as art shows, to offer special packages to guests.
-Sizeable renovation in Beijing, which involves converting two rooms (and sometimes three) into one. The result will be 60sqm rooms, and a room count down from 350 to 230.
-Company is also investing in art, not just organising visits to experience it. That includes hoisting a full-size model bus on the lower roof of its Hong Kong hotel.
-Has a tour product, the badly-named Peninsula Academy (it is not a training place of any type), with a list of varying special travel experiences. The PA name is unlikely to be changed because it was a senior person, possible a Kadoorie, who proposed it.
-Projects include Istanbul, London, Yangon.
-No dates for Istanbul; we believe not before 2019.
-The London hotel would be a new-build following a demolition. Although announced nearly three years ago, the company still does not have planning permission. But it maintains that this is a normal time scale – particularly for this location, which is at Hyde Park Corner near the gardens of Buckingham Palace, the queen’s residence. As a result it cannot give an opening date; we believe not before 2020.
-Similar for Yangon, although announced a year ago, the delay is more related to the political developments in the country, resulting in delays for many government decisions. The hotel would be a conversion of what was the headquarters of the country’s railway company. We believe it will not open before 2018.
Relais & Chateaux, France-based.
-Its 540 properties count 330 Michelin stars.
-Before, R&C charged its member properties 5% per reservation, but now it charges a fixed US$12. The theory is that in exchange, properties will pay higher commission to travel agencies.
Six Senses, Thailand-based.
-In 2016, opening another in Seychelles, on an island off the main island.
-Its Bhutan properties - five lodges in different locations - are due to open over a year; we believe mid-16-to-mid-17. There would be 20 rooms each in Paro and Thimpu, and fewer in the other locations; 83 in total.
-Opening 53-flat residences in the France ski resort of Courchevel. However, SS will not handle bookings into the residences; that will be run by the Savills real estate group.
-A ‘Private Reserve’ 4-room resort is being added within its 82-villa resort in Oman.
Small Luxury Hotels, UK-based.
-Company has 520 properties, average 48 rooms; 10 years ago it was 60.
-Following some rule changes, SLH says it will be harder to join the association, and harder to stay in. With its search for new properties, it expects the balance (those arriving, those leaving) will produce a total not greatly changed at end-2016.
-Has added 25 anonymous property inspectors, +33%, and now has 100. They will inspect member properties every year, instead of every two years.
-Restarted its printed hotel directory, and its printed SLH Cookbook.
Viceroy, US-based.
-Opening: Beverly Hills (L’Hermitage, was Peninsula, due January 2016, although already shown in its portfolio list); Dubai (on trunk of The Palm, 400 rooms, due September 2016); Algarve, Portugal, 147 rooms, due 2017). Management also names Colombia (Cartagena) and Chicago, both due 2017, although these are not on Viceroy’s official list. Contrarily, on that list but not confirmed by management, is a 2nd hotel in Dubai, due 2018.
-Is adding the Zetta hotel from 2016, although already shown in its portfolio list.
-Has lost its hotel in the Maldives.
-GDS code changing this month to VG.
Different reports on these topics are published in the Asia Pacific and Europe editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-report, Foxtrots and Trottings blogs, Facebook-Travel-Business-Analyst. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.

TBA All-Travel Index, Travel industry updates
8 December 2015
TBA All-Travel Index
The July ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +9% over the same month in 2014. Previous month +9%.
Travel industry updates
-Aeroflot Group Jan–Sep seats sold 30.1mn + 13.3%.
-Air Asia seats sold Jul-Sep: India 0.41mn +225%, Malaysia 6.29mn +19%. No totals given for Indonesia -12%, Philippines +46%, Thailand +26%.
-MKG reports European Union Jan-Sep occupancy 71% +2pts.
-IATA October RPKs were +7.5%.
-IATA forecasts 2034 seats sold 7bn +3.8% AAGR over 2014.
-MKG reports Paris hotel occupancy -29pts at its worst night (17th), recovering to +5pts at month end. Terrorist attacks starting 13th, COP21 climate conference started 30th.
-US nationals September outbound 5.75mn +14%.
-World Travel Market hides negative results*. Headlines say “WTM London Again Attracts 50,000 Participants”. Later, it notes an “impressive” 49,275 visitors. Yet our data indicates that was a 1.5% fall.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here.

Euromonitor Puerilities
7 December 2015
A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here.
Research company Euromonitor (EM) has listed what it calls “top emerging travel trends” (a misnomer) in the WTM Global Trends Report. We have criticised some EM reports and statements before, including its now-14-years of work for the GTR. But this latest list of blathers we find an insult to travel industry professionals in that most have little or no meaning:
  EM’s TETTs are:
The new American dream: work less, play hard.
“A growing number of American companies offer unlimited vacation time to create a happier, loyal and motivated staff, which will have an effect on travel bookings.”
We know of no company (in the US or anywhere) that pays staff and allows them not to do any work. But we do accept that such employees would likely spend some of their money and great amount of free time on travel.
Smart technology drives travel to UK’s secondary cities.
“Digitalisation and hi-tech solutions are redefining the tourist offerings of UK urban centres to boost travel outside of London, currently the jewel in the crown of UK tourism.”
Smart technology is also driving travel to London, and everywhere. But what, we wonder, does ‘digitalisation and hi-tech’ do, in this case, for such travel that it does not do for others?
‘Hipster Holidays’ revolutionise European city break.
“Young and hip travellers’ interest in alternative city areas opens new business opportunities and helps diversifying urban attractions in European cities struggling with excessive tourism.”
We tried to understand this, but failed. And we wonder which cities are struggling, and what, indeed, is ‘excessive tourism’.
Travel 3.0: the advent of smart travel.
“Smart technology is transforming the tourism industry with personalised services to create enjoyable experiences suited to a traveller’s individual preferences.”
Well, yes, but is this an ‘emerging trend’? We would think personalisation has been around for at least five if not 10 years. And in some cases, much longer; such as Thomas Cooks’ trips from the UK to the French Riviera in the 1850s.
Iran: the next travel hotspot.
“The recent sanction lift sparked a scramble to open Iran to international visitors, attracted by its ancient Persian history, 17 World Heritage Sites, as well as natural attractions.”
Well, visitor growth was 4% in 2014, but that was before an agreement on sanctions (and, EM, should know, they have not been lifted, but some may be lifted.) On a 5mn total, small numerical increases could produce big percentage growth – but all this hardly deserves such puerile descriptions as ‘hotspot’ and ‘scramble’. We would be surprised if the 2015 total reaches as much as 6mn.
We also wonder if EM wants us to note that there is a difference for potential travellers between Iran’s ‘ancient Persian history’ and its ‘Persian history’. We are not qualified to make any comment on any difference.
Technology start-ups changing the face of Africa.
“With technology start-ups flourishing across the continent, Africa is entering a new era of innovation, which will help change the perception to international tourists.”
Although this ‘changing the face’ is a super-exaggeration, does the creation of start-ups – anywhere - motivate travellers?
Luxury hotels keeping in with the crowd.
“Luxury hotels are turning to crowdsourcing and crowdfunding to get their properties financed, rather than relying on traditional sources of investment.”
Please EM, put this into perspective. Under-1% of funding of the under-5% of hotels in the luxury category?
The sharing economy heads to China.
“After a shaky start, the sharing economy is taking off in China, with the rise of new local players in 2014, a trend boosted by the number of Chinese millennials.”
Finally, something we can agree with! But hardly news. And, of course, the sharing economy is taking off in most places, with or without the help from millennials.
Travel for the Indian unbanked.
“Travel firms are adopting ‘cash-on-delivery’ payments to cater to the half a billion Indians without a bank account.”
Yes again, but this is not a new phenomenon.

Travel Stocks
4 December 2015
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in November. Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +27%; biggest fall, Thai -26%. Hotels: Jinjiang +22%, Starwood -11%. Others: Kuoni +15%, Avis -29%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Hawaiian +4%; biggest fall, Jet Blue -5%. Hotels: Wynn +35%, HPL -4%. Others: China Tvl +25%, Last Minute -13%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 176, AsPac 84, Eur 133, US 311.  Index previous month: WW 187, AsPac 88, Eur 134, US 339.
  NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 100; previous month 109.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Dublin +6%; biggest fall, Istanbul -6%. Previous month: Frankfurt +13%; smallest growth, Mumbai +2%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

ILTM Cannes 3
3 December 2015
Some business news from the ILTM exhibition in Cannes, which closes today. Reports on product updates at some of these organisations due to be published next week.
Como, Singapore-based.
-Has opened the Como Treasury in Perth. A 19th-century building owned by the government, it was vacant for about 15 years. Has only 48 rooms, with average size 75sqm. This is the group’s first hotel to use ‘Como’ in the name of the hotel.
-A strategy meeting, probably before end-January, may decide whether to add the Como name to some of its other hotels, or new ones.
Langham, Hong Kong-based.
-Has 20 hotels, and 20 planned, in all brands.
-This year launched its Cordis (Latin for ‘of the heart’) brand. It defines this as ‘upscale’.
-Cordis Hong Kong is already open. It was the Langham Place (‘Langham Place’ is still a sub-brand), and the name is actually ‘Cordis at Langham Place’ – which seems likely to cause brand confusion.
-Also relaunching Eaton, which it describes as a ‘lifestyle’ brand. Langham talks of ‘launching’ Eaton as though it is a new brand, but it has been in existence 20 years, and has been relaunched before as well – 10 years ago.
Relais & Chateaux, France-based.
-540 properties, of which 372 are in Europe, average 29 rooms; 38 new properties this year.
-The US is now its 2nd-biggest destination.
Small Luxury Hotels, UK-based.
-Filipe Boyen joined SLH as CEO in August. He was previously marketing head at Belmond.
-Is looking for more properties – either in locations where it has customer demand or, where it already has hotels, for “exemplary or trophy hotels”. It also wants more hotels in US.
-However, its plans to add other products, such as yachts, announced last year, have been dropped.
-Following some rule changes, SLH says it will be harder to join the association, and harder to stay in. With its search for new properties, it expects the balance (those arriving, those leaving) will produce a total not greatly changed at end-2016.
-Has added 25 anonymous property inspectors, +33%, and now has 100. They will inspect member properties every year, instead of every two years.
-Plans to enhance its loyalty club, including adding a new top-tier. It will not publish the criteria to get to that level – because we presume it will seek ‘influencers’.
Different reports on these topics are published in the Asia Pacific and Europe editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-report, Foxtrots and Trottings blogs, Facebook-Travel-Business-Analyst. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.

ILTM Cannes 2
2 December 2015
Some business news from the ILTM exhibition in Cannes. Reports on product updates at some of these organisations due to be published next week.
Aman, London-based.
-CEO Olivier Jolivet says he has been with the group for eight years, and CEO “for some time”. We note that he became CEO in August 2014 in the midst of a still-continuing struggle at the ownership and management level of the company.
-In the course of this, the company has moved its headoffice from Singapore to London, and changed its name from Aman Resorts to ‘Aman’.
-Jolivet says there has been no affect (for customers) since all the ownership struggles - a statement which seems hard to believe.
-It has 60% repeat business. The US is its largest market.
Doyle, Ireland-based.
-It says it is under no financial pressure to add to its eight hotels, but it is nevertheless looking in New York and Paris.
-We estimate 35% of its business is from US, 15-20% UK, with Ireland, Germany, Australia, most of the balance.
Four Seasons, Canada-based.
-Four says it is a bigger brand than its 96 hotels would suggest. It has 8-10 openings planned in the next year.
-Management says the pressure to expand is internal, without confirming that it is fast enough. A recent change in CEO was related to a perceived slow rate of expansion.
Oetker, Germany-based.
-New: Sao Paulo, 140 rooms, due 2017, management; New York, 170 rooms, due 2018, conversion. Will have equity in NY but it will not say share.
Peninsula, Hong Kong-based.
-Has built 75 homes in a village where a super typhoon hit in Mindanao, Philippines in 2013.
-Projects include Istanbul, London, Yangon.
Six Senses, Thailand-based.
-Planned openings: Bali (97 villas, due end-2017); Qing Cheng Mountain in China (nearest big town Chengdu, opened; uses the Tesla electric car for airport transfers – good for prestige, bad for airport-transfer practicality).
Viceroy, US-based.
-A complex operation. 13 hotels. Based in Los Angeles, but with an important office in Dubai. A name that is often associated with India, but its Viceroy Hotels and Resorts (sometimes Viceroy Hotel Group) is unlinked to India, and unrelated to Viceroy Hotels, an India-based hotel company. In 2008 the management company changed ownership (from the Kor Group, run by Bradford Korzen) to 50% by the Abu Dhabi government, and 50% by Malaysia interests.
-Claims its start from its Viceroy Santa Monica in 2000. In fact, that hotel opened in the 1960s and was acquired by the Kor Group in 2000.
-In January 2016 the company plans to make an announcement about segmentation of its different-standards hotels – such as renaming some something like ‘Grand’.
Virtuoso, US-based.
-About: Virtuoso is a US-based travel agency network (similar to a franchise) specialising in luxury travel. It has 381 travel agency members with 11,400 travel advisors (generally known as travel agents). Travel sales of its members is US$15.5bn (approximately 2014); not truly indicative in that presumably most sales of most of its members are unrelated to Virtuoso – such as the Dnata state-owned dominant group in Dubai, a new member.
-Now has 381 travel agency members +11.4%, with 720 locations +15.2%, in 34 countries +126.7%.
-This year its travel agent count grew 26.1% to 11,429. Current travel agency members added 1353 new travel agents, 57% of the total growth. Travel agencies joining the network added the other 1061 travel agents.
-New market presence in Europe in Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden. Opened its first in Asia in Hong Kong, Singapore. And elsewhere, in Dubai, Paraguay, South Africa.
-Has changed its mission statement to make a ‘travel advisor’ (travel agents) a job equal with other professions.
-Currently, 80% of business is North America. By 2020 it wants rest-of-world to be 50%.
-Some findings from its surveys – usually among its agents – include: luxury travel is now bigger than luxury cars; millennials are being brought up in the times when the way to book travel is to do it yourself; multi-generational travel has been around a long time, but it is getting bigger faster.
Different reports on these topics are published in the Asia Pacific and Europe editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-report, Foxtrots and Trottings blogs, Facebook-Travel-Business-Analyst. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.

ILTM Cannes 1
1 December 2015
Some business news from the ILTM exhibition in Cannes, which started today. Reports on product updates at some of these organisations due to be published next week.
Mandarin Oriental, Hong Kong-based.
-China overtook the UK three years ago to become MO’s 2nd-largest market source, with 18% of the company’s business. US remains largest, with 26%; the UK has 9%.
-Has 16 residences around the world, and this is becoming an important part of its business.
-Is running the Ritz hotel in Madrid, but has not yet decided what it will do. We presume that, if the hotel reaches MO standards, MO will keep the Ritz name, with the 2nd-line ‘by Mandarin Oriental’.
-Is looking at how it can serve people who ask “can I join your loyalty club” – which it does not have. It is looking at some sort of recognition program.
-James Riley is due to take over from Edouard Ettedgui, CEO since 1998, next March. Riley is finance director of Jardine Matheson, which owns MO.
Minor, Thailand-based.
-Despite that name, its 125 hotels is making it a major company.
-Bought Tivoli brand hotels in Portugal and South America, and is in talks with the bank owners of the Tivoli brand to buy it.
-Anantara. 35 hotels. What was the Four Seasons Bangkok (and before, the Regent, and originally planned to be the Peninsula) has now been taken from FS, and renamed Anantara Siam. This should help establish the name of Anantara, which is still not well known.
-Elewana brand. Bought a group of five resorts in Kenya this year.
Oberoi, India-based.
-Claims to be the only profitable hotel company in India – a comment aimed clearly at his main local rival, Taj Hotels.
-Now puts its Trident brand, which started as mid-market, in ‘luxury’ category, leaving its main ‘Oberoi’ brand in a vaporous “experience” category.
-Has 50% repeat customers.
-Oberoi lost its Mena House Pyramids hotel in 2013 – “because there was no one to talk to in government”, which unfortunately cannot be true because management is being taken over by Marriott. The government currently manages it.
-Was operating two ships on Nile cruising. The 27-cabin Zahra has been operating, and Oberoi says a second is now in service following renovation, although it is selling only the Zahra. It says the cruisers are covering their operating costs. We estimate loads are under 20%, and with visitors still 40% below their pre-Arab-Spring level, recovery is still at least two years away.
Different reports on these topics are published in the Asia Pacific and Europe editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-report, Foxtrots and Trottings blogs, Facebook-Travel-Business-Analyst. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.

Seat sales by world’s top-3 no-frills-airlines
30 November 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top no-frills-airlines (in each of 3 regions) in September, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: (Q2 only for) Air Asia +9.9%; Ryanair +12.4%; Southwest +9.1%.

Travel industry updates
27 November 2015
-Aeroflot October seat sales 3.4mn +17.9%.
-IATA forecasts 7bn seat sales in 2034, a 3.8% average annual growth rate (on 2014). 2014 was 3.3bn; it forecasts 3.5bn for this year.
-IPKI/ITBB trip count from North America was +5% Jan-Aug compared with their forecast +3% for all-2015 (and achieved +6% for all-2014). IPKI/ITBB do not define ‘North America’, but they usually include US and Canada but exclude Mexico.
-Smith 2016 forecast for US hotels, 66.0% occupancy +0.8%, average room rate US$126.28 +4.8%.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
26 November 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in September, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +23.6% for AF+KL+A5, +8.5% BA+EI+IB+VY, -0.3% LH+LX+OS.

World hotel results
25 November 2015
The August hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.5; AsPac 0.1; Europe 2.6; US 1.7. Previous month: World 3.3; AsPac 3.0; Europe 5.2; US 1.7.

Index, travel stocks
24 November 2015
The September ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 187; AsPac 88; Europe 134; US 339. (Base: Dec 06.)

Index, travel numbers, US
23 November 2015
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Aug +4E; Jul +4.4P; Jun +4.0; May +3.6; Apr +3.7; Mar +3.9; Feb +4.2; Jan +2.9. 2014: Dec +4.8; Nov +3.6; Oct +4.5; Sep +5.0. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel Indices, Travel industry updates
20 November 2015
Travel Indices
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in October for US hotel companies was 3470, +10.0%.
  The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for October shows: World 187, AsPac 88, Eur 134, US 339.
  The ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in October, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 109.
  The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at January 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ is based on 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ is based on 100 at December 2014.
Travel industry updates
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) October seat sales 2.84mn +6.9%.
-Easyjet fiscal year, thru Sep, seat sales 68.6mn +6%.
-IATA reports September international RPKs +5.1%; premium +2.9%.
-IPKI/ITBB report +5% outbound trips from Asia Pacific “so far” (period not specified), and forecast +6.1% in 2016.
-US April visitor arrivals 6.5mn +0.4%.

Go young go!
19 November 2015
A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here.
Oh; unfortunately, an II* report finds that young Europeans (YEs) are not going; they are travelling less. Findings include:
[] Since 2007 foreign trips by YEs have fallen 10%, about 1%/year.
[] In 2014, YEs took 54mn foreign trips and spent 430mn nights.
[] YEs spent US$753 (at US$1 to €0.93) per trip in 2014, and US$86 per night. [No comparison data given.]
*II = IPK International and ITB Berlin, YEs = young Europeans, aged 15-24. We presume ‘Europeans’ means travel by residents in Europe, and not Europeans. At press time, II had not responded to our request for certain clarifications.

Hotel-room pipeline
18 November 2015
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for October, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline has grown: World +7.1%, US +12.7%, AsPac +3.0%, Eur -6.6%.

US travel industry updates
17 November 2015
-September international air passenger traffic +8%.
-September international visitors spent US$18.2bn +1%.
-ARC reports travel agencies October air ticket sales US$7.3bn -2.2%.

Airlines - Cathay, China’s big-3, Singapore. Travel agencies - Japan.
16 November 2015
Extracted from the Foxtrots blog.
Cathay hides? China’s big-3 ALs. Singapore AL group. Japan travel agencies.
Following my trawl through key Asia travel stats for WYSKs (what you should know), note the following:
Cathay; hiding
I wonder. Cathay reports its figures only with Dragonair. Probably for the same reason that Air France-KLM and Lufthansa-Eurowings report only combined totals – to hide one set of figures.
  With first-Q3s seat sales at +8%, is most of C/D’s growth coming from D? In other words, is C in trouble – as Singapore Airlines, see below?
China’s big-3 airlines
Yes, them again.
  Their international traffic still growing at remarkable rate - First 3Qs seat sales, +19% for Air China, +29% China Eastern (the biggest), +31% China Southern.
  CE, having overtaken Asiana and Japan Airlines, is now approaching Thai’s total.
Singapore Airlines group.
How much longer, I wonder, before management at the Singapore Airlines group (which I auguringly abbreviate to SAG) admits that things are not going right. (SAG took 10 years to extract itself from the mistake of investing in Virgin Atlantic, so don’t expect something quick.)
  As I have noted before, SAG’s Scoot should not have been established (Tiger should have been expanded instead), and Silk should be SAG’s low-cost-airline, not regional-airline/SA-sometime-substitute. Indicates are that Tiger is being suffocated out (of routes, to give to Scoot, and thereby, life).
  For the first 3Qs, SAG’s seat sales grew under 1%! Poor old Tiger (as I have said, the airline is giving tigers a bad name) fell 5%, and seat sales for the mighty SA were flat. Scoot can thank Tiger’s fall for part of its growth – which is now running at sustainable rates monthly, and +15% YTD.
Travel agencies, Japan
How can they survive?
  Well, maybe they can’t. I have been tracking outbound sales of the biggest bunch for some years. At one time it was the top-60, but now I am down to the top-49. And probably - as in the US - still going down.
  Mile Post Japan gives me some figures to help my tracking. From this I reckon the still mighty (just about) JTB fell about 8% in the first half, even the smart bright HIS challenger -5%, and once-proud Hankyu a painful -16%. The top-49 -6%. That’s down 11% since 2000, and an even-worse -24% since 2010.

Index, travel numbers - Asia Pacific, Europe, world
13 November 2015
Asia Pacific
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Aug +3E; Jul +5.5P; Jun +1.4; May +6.3; Apr +3.4; Mar +4.9; Jan +3.2. 2014: Dec +4.3; Nov +2.1; Oct +4.0; Sep +4.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)
Europe
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Aug +4E; Jul +5.6P; Jun +3.2; May +7.1; Apr +6.4; Mar +6.6; Feb +7.2; Jan +6.8. 2014: Dec +5.5; Nov +6.1; Oct +3.2; Sep +4.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)
World
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Aug +4E; Jul +5.9P; Jun +2.6; May +5.3; Apr +4.5; Mar +4.9; Feb +4.6; Jan +4.2. 2014: Dec +5.8; Nov +4.3; Oct +4.5; Sep +4.9. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates
12 November 2015
-ACI reports Europe airports September passengers handled +6.2%.
-Air Asia X reports Q3 results, but did not note seats sold - 902k -14%.
-Air Berlin October seats sold 2.87mn -6.2%.
-American Airlines October RPKs +5.8%.
-Brussels airport October passengers handled 2.12mn +6.4%.
-Copenhagen airport October passengers handled 2.48mn +6.2%.
-Emirates Apr-Sep seats sold 25.7mn +10%.
-Frankfurt airport October passengers handled 5.7mn +4.3%.
-IAG (AerLingus British Iberia Vueling) October RPKs +7.6%.
-IATA reports September member-RPKs +7.3%.
-ITB Berlin reports outbound trips “by Europeans” (probable mistake for “from Europe”) +4.5% Jan-Aug; 2016 forecast +2.8%.
–London Heathrow airport October passengers handled 6.56mn +3.9%.
-SAS October seats sold 2.6mn -0.8%.
-Turkish Airlines Jan-Sep seats sold 46.5mn; growth not shown.
-United Airlines October RPKs +3.6%.

WYSK; Singapore Airlines group
11 November 2015
I was diverted from my trawl through key Asian airline stats for WYSKs (what you should know) by news about the Singapore Airlines group. (I abbreviate that to SAG – rather appropriate given current traffic results.)
  I wondered how much longer before management at SAG admitted that things are not going right. (It took 10 years to extract itself from the mistake of investing in Virgin Atlantic, so it may not be quick.)
  As I have been saying since 2012, SAG’s Scoot should not have been established (Tiger should have been expanded instead), and Silk should be SAG’s LCA*, not regional-airline/SA-sometime-substitute. Indications are that Tiger is being suffocated out (of routes, to give to Scoot, and thereby life).
  For the first 3Qs, SAG’s seat sales grew under 1%! Poor old Tiger (which, as I noted before, is giving tigers a bad name) fell 5% and seat sales for the mighty SA were flat. Scoot can thank Tiger’s fall for part of its growth – which is now running at good rates monthly, and +15% YTD.
  Then this week SAG announced that it had offered to buy the 44% of Tiger that it does not already own. I presume shareholders will accept, because they can see Scoot is squeezing Tiger out of routes – which is hardly a good sign for future business potential. As a 100%-SAG owned airline, Tiger’s strategy could be part of SAG’s for the overall benefit of SAG – even if Tiger itself does not do so well.
  SAG made comforting noises about ‘long-term success’ etc, but that is for public consumption today. I reckon what SAG does tomorrow will be based on what it will describe as ‘changed circumstances’ and a ‘redefined corporate strategy’ – or similar.
  At present, SAG says it intends to take Tiger private. What this means is not yet clear.
  I still think there is no need for SAG to have two NFAs* (Scoot, Tiger), so one will presumably go. Yet maybe not. Because also there is no need for two FSAs* (SIA, Silk), but one FSA (SIA) and one LCA (Silk).
  Make your bets.
*Notes:
-FSA = full-service-airline. Offering first/business/economy, travel agency bookings, meals/bookings/baggage/cancellations included, etc. As its name indicates – full service.
-LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline; see next.) An FSA but with lower operating costs - cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for instance), fewer fare types, which may have first and business cabins, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc. If relevant, usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.
-NFA = no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: market freedom in terms of routes and aircraft choice; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; fares that are extremely low when booked at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no service frills; single economy-class cabin; no seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more. 

Asia Pacific outbound
10 November 2015
Our calculation of AsPac resident departures for latest-month June, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +7.7%. Boosted by big growth from India (our estimates), Korea; slow month from China (our estimates).           

Asia Pacific inbound
9 November 2015
Our calculation of AsPac visitor arrivals for latest-month June, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +0.6%. Arrivals weakened by big falls in Korea (MERS), Malaysia.

TBA Travel-Tech-Stocks Index
6 November 2015
Our ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in October, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 109. Last month 121. (Base: Dec 14.)

ATF next January
5 November 2015
ATF (the Asean Travel Forum) is scheduled to take place in Manila, Philippines in January. The whole event runs 18-25th, including the 3-day Travex exhibition 20-22.
  International delegate count - including ministerial officials, exhibitors, buyers, media – expected to be 1600.
  The event is organised by TTG Events, which reports that 40% of exhibition space has been sold. About 300 buyers have applied to attend; TTGE expects 400 buyers will be hosted.
  New buyers include: LaCity Travel Singleton, Australia; Entourage, Bangladesh; Travel Asia a la carte, Cambodia; Groupe Express Roularta, France; Intersport, France; East and West Travel, Hong Kong; Wellcome Tours, India.
  Cost for 6sqm booth - US$2475 for Aseantta members, US$3025 non-members. Full-delegate registration - US$693 members, US$847 non-members. Co-delegate registration - US$495 members, US$704 non-members.

Travel industry updates
4 November 2015
-Copenhagen airport Q3 passengers handled 7.7mn +5.5%.
-JAL Group Q2 RPKs +6.2%.
-Ryanair October seats sold 9.68mn +15%.
-Singapore airport September passengers handled 4.42mn +3.9%.
-IPKI/ITBB forecast* 6.75bn domestic trips in 2015 and 1.2bn international arrivals. Growth not given, and different definitions not explained.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here.

WYSK - What You Should Know. Lufthansa – group.
3 November 2015
September results show another twist.
What to say? Growth is not good - +2% for the group (L plus Austrian, Swiss - ALS) but -3% A, +3% L, +2% S.
  And the group has problems-in-waiting. A faces competition at home not only from Niki, a sort-of NFA* (ultimately owned by Etihad, although we think Etihad may be trying to sell it, or change it). But from – dumb as it seems – a semi-subsidiary of L! (‘Semi’ because Turkish Airlines is an owner of Sun Express as well.)
  So things may get worse for A, even if they ever get better.
  S is ok, but that +2% is not encouraging. (Although Switzerland is not part of the European Union, it has an association agreement in certain economic sectors, including aviation, and thus S faces competition from EU-based airlines; Easyjet has a big base in Geneva, for instance.)
  Then there’s Eurowings/Germanwings – whose results L hides in its own data, although we are surprised the Frankfurt stockmarket allows this blatant obfuscation.
  Germanwings, L’s failed NFA (even before the suicide-crash earlier this year) was to be merged into Eurowings – again, planned before the crash. Eurowings is nearly everything – charter airline, LCA*, NFA (and almost an FSA* as it operates some flights for L). We cannot say if that strategy is a success, because L hides the figures. But we suspect not (if only that administrating such a potpourri to keep everything profitably busy, is hard).
  Will L change? It needs to – to simplify operations – but it has had two major strategy changes over the past three years. With the result that everything has become more complex. There are no signs that management realises this.
  And there may be no change until two former chairmen - Wolfgang Mayrhuber, 68, and Juergen Weber, 74 – finally retire. They are still on the supervisory board, and both are engineers, and so favour old-style solid management.

*Notes:
-FSA = full-service-airline. Offering first/business/economy, travel agency bookings, meals/bookings/baggage/cancellations included, etc. As its name indicates – full service.
-LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline; see next.) An FSA but with lower operating costs - cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for instance), fewer fare types, which may have first and business cabins, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc. If relevant, usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.
-NFA = no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: market freedom in terms of routes and aircraft choice; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; fares that are extremely low when booked at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no service frills; single economy-class cabin; no seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more.

Travel Stocks
2 November 2015
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in October. Airlines: biggest growth, Hawaiian +4%; biggest fall, Jet Blue -5%. Hotels: Wynn +35%, HPL -4%. Others: China Tvl +25%, Last Minute -13%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Air Asia +45%; biggest fall, United -7%. Hotels: Banyan +26%, Wynn -31%. Others: T Cook +14%, eDreams -14%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 187, AsPac 88, Eur 134, US 339.  Index previous month: WW 168, AsPac 80, Eur 128, US 297. NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 109; previous month 121.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Frankfurt +13%; smallest growth, Mumbai +2%. Previous month: Taipei +2%; biggest fall, Tokyo -6%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

TBA All-Travel Index; Travel industry updates
30 October 2015
TBA All-Travel Index
The June ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +9% over the same month in 2014. Previous month +10%.
Travel industry updates
-Aeroflot Group September seats sold 3.7mn +13.3%; Aeroflot 2.4mn +11.3%.
-London Heathrow Jan-Sep airport passengers handled 56.9mn +2.3%.
-US nationals August outbound international travel 7.0mn +4%.
-WTO reports Jan-Aug world arrivals 810mn +4.3%.
-IPKI/ITBB report/forecast: outbound trips Jan-Aug +4.5%; all-2015 domestic trips 6.75bn, international arrivals 1.2bn; 2016 “tourism growth” +4.3%.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here. At press time, IPKI/ITBB had not responded to our request for certain clarifications.

Seat sales by world’s top-3 no-frills-airlines
29 October 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top no-frills-airlines (in each of 3 regions) in August, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: (Q2 only for) Air Asia +9.9%; Ryanair +10.5%; Southwest +6.9%.

WYSK - What You Should Know. IAG = Aer Lingus, British, Iberia, Vueling (ABIV).
28 October 2015
September results show another twist. IAG airlines are Europe’s stars – although the Star Alliance is the Lufthansa laggards - growing at 9% in the month and +10% YTD!
  Caveats though:
  New acquisition A’s data is not included in most of this period, and it was having a bad year - +0.3% in H1, probably because a resurgent Ryanair (also based in Ireland although most of its traffic is out of London) grew at 20% in the same period, and probably took growth from A.
  And IAG’s big growth is not from its big airline, B, but from its two Spanish operations – I and V. Not all comparable figures are published but B is growing around 3% compared with I’s around +14% and V’s around +16%.
  Ironically, B has started and shutdown/sold two of its own NFAs* – Go and DBA – and is now part of a group that its thriving in part thanks to its NFAs. A is a sort-of NFA (except for its flights to the US), and so is V (it operates some flights for I, and on those it can be considered an LCA*).
  V is moving fast, with bases in Rome and now in Paris.
  IAG has one disaster. It’s called Open Skies which, despite that dumb name is actually an airline, operating a single route Paris-New York. We could never understand why B – which created it – did not call it ‘British Airways’.
  But now IAG has A flying an out-of-sync operation across the Atlantic (as an FSA*, although it is more-or-less an NFA within Europe), will there be some restructuring with the out-of-sync Open Skies?

*Notes:
-FSA = full-service-airline. Offering first/business/economy, travel agency bookings, meals/bookings/baggage/cancellations included, etc. As its name indicates – full service.
-LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline; see next.) An FSA but with lower operating costs - cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for instance), fewer fare types, which may have first and business cabins, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc. If relevant, usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.
-NFA = no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: market freedom in terms of routes and aircraft choice; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; fares that are extremely low when booked at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no service frills; single economy-class cabin; no seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
27 October 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in August, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +1.0% for AF+KL+A5, +12.4% BA+EI+IB+VY, +3.6% LH+LX+OS.

Time for Air France to face facts?
26 October 2015
There has been much agitation over the Air France announcement that it might need to reduce its employee count over the next two years by just under 3000.
  We will input some statistical realities into the argument, as some seem to have got lost.
Investors
Because many union and socialists in general make the remark that whilst employees are ‘losing’, investors (or ‘speculators’ if you prefer a word considered in France as even more inhuman than investors) are making big bucks.
  At this time of the year in 2000, AF shares were trading at €20. In 2010 at €11. And now they are at €6.
  Thus, far from making a lot of money, someone who invested €1000 in the company in 2000 would today walk away with €300.
Profits
The distant dream.
  In 2014 AFG reported an operating loss of €129mn. In the first half of this year, a €232mn operating loss - €25mn worse than for the same period in 2014.
  It is not quite clear what AFG expects for all-2015. For sure, it targets lower costs (which should be helped a lot by lower fuel costs), but will that mean profits? Almost certainly not, because it has an overall ‘Perform 2020’ strategy plan.
Alitalia
Remember that AFG once owned 25% of Alitalia (recently; in 2009). From the beginning we said that rival bidder Lufthansa must have broken out the Sekt when it lost the bidding war.
  Following various funding inputs – in which AFG did not participate – AFG’s ownership is now down to about 7%. And it is shut out almost entirely from management influence. Of the nine directors, six are appointed by the Alitalia (=Italy) side, and three by the new 49%-owner, Etihad.
  For that 49% Etihad paid about the same that AFG did for its 25%! The figures are not always clear – this is the world of finance, after all – but Etihad paid about €560mn, AFG about €323mn.
  And the final kick in the teeth was Alitalia’s announcement that it will not renew its partnership and JV agreements with AFG when they come up for renewal in 2017.

Air France group, Travel Intelligence, Travel Pursuits
23 October 2015
WYSK - What You Should Know. Air France – group.
September results show another twist.
The Air France grouping (AF, Hop, KLM, Transavia - AHKT) shows a big leap (+21%) but that is because A pilots were on strike a year ago. YTD figures show a more sober +3%, although that is not a bad result, but – this goes on an on – those strike figures probably account for 1pt or maybe as much as 2pts of that YTD growth.
  That said, we believe H and K are growing (perhaps around +5%) and thus A is falling (-2%?); the figures are not separated so that we have to look for other indicators. T grew 8% in the month and +9% YTD.
  (Another reason for AFG to worry is the opening of a new base in Paris by the NFA* Vueling). AFG has its own NFA in T, but cannot get it going as it would like, because A unions don’t like T.)
*NFA = no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: market freedom in terms of routes and aircraft choice; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; fares that are extremely low when booked at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no service frills; single economy-class cabin; no seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more.
Travel Intelligence
-Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia, page 8, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10042411#/8
Travel Pursuits
-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia, page 34, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10042411#/34

Travel industry updates, Airport passengers in Europe
22 October 2015
Travel industry updates
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) September seats sold 2.63mn +5.8%.
-STR reports US September hotel occupancy 67.9% +3.3%, average room rate US$122.02 +4.6%.
-Brand USA says it generated 2mn additional visitors over the past two years, although it is not clear how this was measured. Despite that name, Brand USA is the brandname for the destination marketing organisation; it should be, of course, Visit USA.
Airport passengers in Europe
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for June, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +13.6% (all airports +3.4%). Last month: +9.1% (all airports +3.5%).

World hotel results
21 October 2015
The July hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 3.3; AsPac 3.0; Europe 5.2; US 1.7. Previous month: World 1.2; AsPac -0.8; Europe 3.1; US 1.4.

Travel industry updates
20 October 2015
-IATA report on August: international seats sold +5.4%; premium class +5.3%, economy classes +5.4%.
-PATA reports Asia Pacific H1 arrivals (region not defined but usually includes destinations such as Canada, Chile, even Turkey, US; not just those usually considered AsPac) +5.4%. Americas +6.8%, Pacific +6.3%, Asia +5.0%.
-US travel agencies September ticket sales US$7.3bn -3.1%.

Index, travel numbers, US
19 October 2015
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jul +4E; Jun +4.4P; May +3.8; Apr +3.9; Mar +4.0; Feb +4.2; Jan +2.9. 2014: Dec +4.8; Nov +3.6; Oct +4.5; Sep +5.0; Aug +3.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates
16 October 2015
-Air France-KLM September seats sold 7.1mn +23.6%.
-American Airlines September RPKs +7.2%.
-Brussels airport September passengers handled 2.32mn +4.1%.
-Copenhagen airport September passengers handled 2.48mn +6.1%.
-London Q2 visitors 5.1mn +6%.
-London Heathrow airport September passengers handled 6.77mn +2.9%.
-Southwest Airlines September RPKs +11.4%.
-United Airlines September RPKs +1.4%.
-US August visitor spend US$18.2bn -2%.

Hotel-room pipeline
15 October 2015
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for September, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline has grown: World +7%, US +12%, AsPac +4%, Eur -8%.

Index, travel numbers, Europe
14 October 2015
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jul +5E; Jun +3.7P; May +6.6; Apr +6.4; Mar +6.6; Feb +7.2; Jan +6.8. 2014: Dec +5.5; Nov +6.1; Oct +3.2; Sep +4.7; Aug +4.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel Indices
13 October 2015
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in September for US hotel companies was 3155, -6.9%.
  The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for September shows: World 168, AsPac 80, Eur 128, US 297.
  The ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in September, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 121.
  The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at January 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ is based on 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ is based on 100 at December 2014.

Index, travel numbers, Asia Pacific
12 October 2015
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jul +5E; Jun +2.1P; May +6.0; Apr +3.4; Mar +4.9; Jan +3.2. 2014: Dec +4.3; Nov +2.1; Oct +4.0; Sep +4.3; Aug +5.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates
9 October 2015
-Following this week’s Air France announcement to reduce staff by almost 3000, we note: Air France has 235 aircraft and 69,000 staff: IAG (Aer Lingus British Iberia Vueling) 415 and 59,000; Lufthansa 622 and 119,000. The AF 3000 would be 4.2%; we calculate AF needs to reduce staff by 20,000, almost 30%.
-Dubai airport August passengers handled 7.2mn +9.5%.
-IATA reports September airline shares +2% compared with August. Our Index shows World travel stocks +3pts, AsPac +4pts, Eur +4pts, US +1pt.

Index, travel numbers, world
8 October 2015
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jul +5E; Jun +3.4P; May +5.3; Apr +4.8; Mar +4.9; Feb +4.6; Jan +4.2. 2014: Dec +5.8; Nov +4.3; Oct +4.5; Sep +4.9; Aug +4.9. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Absurdity at Alitalia
7 October 2015
News:
-Silvano Cassano, Alitalia’s CEO, resigned last month. For commentary on Alitalia it does not matter whether he jumped or was pushed. Because the result is the same – dysfunction.
-Chairman Luca Cordero di Montezemolo sort-of takes over the CEO title, but the job’s responsibilities are split between COO Giancarlo Schisano and CFO Duncan Naysmith.
  We have been here before; see following.
  The (recent) past:
-Cassano was the airline’s 4th CEO since 2012: Cassano August 2014-September 2015; Gabriele Del Torchio May 2013-August 2014, Andrea Ragnetti March 2012-January 2013.
  About them:
-Cassano has an impressive CV up to 2010. He started at American Express in charge of Italy, then Hertz responsible for Europe. Then Fiat (where he was CEO of one of its divisions). Then in 2003 to Benetton as the first head outside the Benetton family. But he left in 2006, joining Grandi Navi Veloci, a 10-ship local-ferry operator in the Mediterranean.
  His experience at GNV would have been familiar to him at Alitalia – GNV has had almost constant changes in ownership or capital input – substantial ones in 2004, 2011, 2012, 2013.
  Since leaving GNV in 2010 (reasons are unclear) Cassano was in the wilderness of consultancies, and in 2014 moved to Dubai – where he presumably met James Hogan, Etihad’s CEO, up in neighbouring Abu Dhabi.
-Del Torchio had been CEO of Ducati, motorcycle maker – probably an easier ride. In 2013 he said that his task was to lead Alitalia into profitability. Instead he led it into the salesroom; Etihad bought 49% in 2014, when Del Torchio restated what had been his task –he said he had been tasked to find a partner.
-Ragnetti, before Alitalia, had international managerial experience in Netherlands and Portugal as well as in his native Italy. At Philips he had CEO roles at two of their divisions.
-After Ragnetti left, then-chairman Roberto Colaninno also took on the CEO post, and with two other VPs, Elio Catania and Salvatore Mancuso, looked for another CEO.
  What we said in 2014 when Cassano took on Alitalia’s CEO job:
-“[Cassano’s] task – as for previous CEOs – seems hopeless, until the airline can cut half its staff. That indicates he will simply be managing the decline. The question is whether Etihad or other owners will demand improvement nevertheless – and make changes if they do not happen. We therefore think Cassano will not be with the company for more than two years.”

Now we get it
6 October 2015
Bangkok-based NokScoot (or is it ScootNok? Snok?) is due to start Bangkok-Taipei flights this month.
  Now we get it. We have always assumed that Snok, and its Singapore-based equivalent Snook, were what they said they were – longhaul no-frills-airlines (NFAs). Or at least medium-haul.
  We admit that we could not understand when Scook started Singapore-Bangkok that, even if you stretch it, is hardly even medium-haul. But we let that pass. And Nook’s Singapore-Bangkok-Taipei/Osaka. we let that pass also.
  But with this new Snok’s route, we finally get it – or them:
1. Routes/flights/passengers/sales/authorisations can be intermixed. Who’s to know if you are flying Scoot or NokScoot when you fly Bangkok-Taipei? In fact, of course, both could be in one flight.
2, and this is the most important. These NFAs are no longer medium- or even long-haul NFAs – strategically speaking. They are simply a lower-fare (to the passenger), lower-cost (to the airline) alternative to their main parent airlines – what we call full-service-airlines. Those FSAs may no longer be able to offer lower fares demanded by the market, because of their higher cost base.
  Do the owners realise that they have changed their strategy?
  (Not a stupid question, because they may have made their plans based on commercial opportunities, and not necessarily given any attention to the strategic implications. That is left to pseudo-travel-industry-intellectuals such as myself.)

Travel, and Travel-Tech-Stocks
5 October 2015
Travel Stocks
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in September. Airlines: biggest growth, Air Asia +45%; biggest fall, United -7%. Hotels: Banyan +26%, Wynn -31%. Others: T Cook +14%, eDreams -14%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Wizz +9%; biggest fall, Air Asia -36%. Hotels: MGM +4%, Wynn -27%. Others: Hertz +8%, Kuoni -25%.
   TBA Travel Stocks Index: World 168, AsPac 80, Eur 128, US 297.  Index previous month: WW 165, AsPac 76, Eur 124, US 296.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Taipei +2%; biggest fall, Tokyo -6%. Previous month: Dublin -2% (sic!); biggest fall, Hong Kong -12%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.
TBA Travel-Tech-Stocks Index
Our ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in September, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 121. Last month 123. (Base: Dec 14.)

Slamming Lamy; Pascal Lamy at JATA Tourism Expo
2 October 2015
Pascal Lamy, head of WTO’s ‘World Committee of Tourism Ethics’ (in punctuation marks because we are not clear what the WCTE does). He gave the keynote speech at last week’s JATA Tourism Expo in Tokyo. As we told him after the following episode, that his presentation was good, interesting, and motivating, but that his social/professional skills were very poor.
  Among our points:
-We said his presentation seemed to presume that all travellers (arrivals, which he called ‘tourists’) were leisure travellers, because he was talking about the attraction of culture for many of them.
-He said 40% of visitors were motivated by culture. We challenged that, and he said he got the figure from the WTO, implying that therefore it was correct. But he seems to have misinterpreted it. The same figure was used in a WTO presentation later, but with a qualification that 40% of visitors included culture as one of their reasons for travel; a big difference to how Lamy used the 40%.
-He had said that the number of outbound travellers from Japan was “stable”. We said in fact it was falling. He then mumbled something like “what do you expect with a falling population” – which is a naive reaction. But then he partly contradicted himself by adding (and repeating what he had said in his presentation) “No, it is not falling, it is stable”. This year the outbound-travel number has fallen 5% which we, and we believe most others, would not define as ‘stable’.
-He called I M Pei ‘Chinese’. This is racialism. Pei is an American of Chinese ethnicity. (Pei left China when he was around 20 to study in the US, and never again lived there.) Again an example of Lamy using, or misusing, facts to suit his argument.
  He also said Pei was employed to design a pyramid for the Louvre museum in Paris. Was the pyramid decided before? Surely many can design a pyramid; was it necessary to employ a costly renowned architect to design just the pyramid?
  In fact, the pyramid was first proposed for another Pei-designed structure in the US (so the Louvre was a sort-of ‘copy’), and Pei’s job specification involved much more than that now-lauded pyramid entrance.
-We asked Lamy for his business card. He said he had run out (day one at an event in Japan, so we presume he was lying). So We are not sure how he presents himself; who he worked for that day.
  Lamy is also involved in efforts to win the next World Expo and Summer Olympics bids for Paris (he is French). To me this indicates he will do anything and adapt his knowledge and arguments to suit his current paymaster. (Because the Olympics and Expo are bad for economies for a destination – which we presume he knows - but doing such work is good for personal prestige and on a CV.)

Travel industry updates
1 October 2015
-IATA reports August RPKs +7.1%.
-JATA Tourism Expo in Tokyo last week reports: visitors 173,602 +10.2%; target was 150,000. Breakdown not given; 2014 was public 116,526, trade/press 41,063.
-US international air seat sales August 142.3mn +5%.

TBA All-Travel Index
30 September 2015
The May ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +10% over the same month in 2014. Previous month +6%.

Seat sales by world’s top-3 no-frills-airlines, big-3 airline groups
29 September 2015
Seat sales by world’s top-3 no-frills-airlines
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top no-frills-airlines (in each of 3 regions) in July, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: (Q2 only for) Air Asia +9.9%; Ryanair +10.9%; Southwest +7.1%.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in July, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +1.3% for AF+KL+A5, +12.6% BA+IB+VY, +4.6% LH+LX+OS.

Airport passengers in Europe, World hotel results
28 September 2015
Airport passengers in Europe
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for April, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +9.1% (all airports +3.5%). Last month: +15.2% (all airports +5.6%).

World hotel results
The June hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.2; AsPac -0.8; Europe 3.1; US 1.4. Previous month: World 0.2; AsPac 0.7; Europe -0.5; US 0.5.

JATA Expo
25 September 2015
Keynote speech at the official opening of the JATA Expo in Tokyo today, was given by Pascal Lamy, head of WTO’s ‘World Committee of Tourism Ethics’ (in punctuation marks because we are not clear what the WCTE does).
  Lamy’s speech noted the many important links between the travel business and culture (although he made the common mistake of assuming all WTO’s figures show inbound-leisure travel).
  The seminar comprised Lamy as well as the regional representative of the WTO, the mayor of Kyoto, and head of Chanel in Japan. Some interesting points, such as that in a city (Kyoto was mentioned) one day (monthly?) should be ‘kimono’ day. Many women still wear kimono, but not many men.

Travel industry updates
24 September 2015
-Aeroflot August seats sold 2.7mn +12.0%. Aeroflot group 4.3mn +13.0%.
-We have critically reported on some of the moves at the leadership of Alitalia. With the departure of the latest CEO, Silvano Cassano, we think the topic can now be termed a fiasco. Full report in our People-in-Travel.
-ECM/MKG report hotel occupancy at 67.5% +1.8pts, in the first semester (not defined, but usually would be Jan-Jun). TBA earlier reported 73.8% +1.7pts for Jan-Jun. (For its work, ECM’s members should have only passing interest in this hotel measure; ECM management is not aware of this, partly because of its relationship with MKG.)
-IATA reports July international RPKs +6.8%. It credits this to the (annual) change in timing for the moslem ramadan fasting month. We question that analysis: 1, because it changes every year and IATA has never given this as a reason for a growth (and fall when the period is not the ramadan month); 2, the effect on worldwide air traffic must be tiny – less than 1%? – so how would it have such a notable effect on a percentage change?
-IATA reports July premium RPKs +8.5%, economy +6.6%.
-Is Milan Malpensa airport getting out of trouble? It has been losing traffic badly – in some months around 20% - mainly to Bergamo but also Linate, and the country’s economic malaise. As for Narita in Tokyo, now the older airport (there, Haneda; in Milan Linate) can accept more traffic, the newer is losing because it is less convenient. But over Jan-Jun, Malpensa’s passenger total was down only 4%. And it is still a little bigger than Linate and Bergamo combined.

Ryanair v Southwest, Index US travel numbers
23 September 2015
Ryanair v Southwest
Ryanair overtakes Southwest; SW stays ahead
Yes; both. As we estimated last month, Ryanair became the biggest no-frills-airline in the world that month, August, selling 10.4mn seats compared with the 10.1mn that Southwest sold.
  A little caveat – Ryan does not separate those filled-seats that are filled by non-paying passengers, and those who booked and paid but did not show up for the flight. SW does. I reckon that would account for about 1% of Ryan’s stated traffic total.
  A big caveat – SW is still much larger YTD (because Ryan does not sell enough seats in its off- and shoulder-seasons), 78mn compared with 67mn.
Index, travel numbers, US
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jun +4E; May +3.6P; Apr +3.P; Mar +4.1; Feb +3.9; Jan +2.9. 2014: Dec +4.8; Nov +3.6; Oct +4.5; Sep +5.0; Aug +3.8; Jul +5.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates, Index travel stocks
22 September 2015
Travel industry updates
-ARC reports US travel agency August sales US$6.9bn -1.9%, ticket transactions 107.2mn +5.5%.
-CWT forecasts 2016 AsPac meetings cost per-attendee-per-day +5.0%.
-US July outbound travel 8.2mn +10% (overseas 3.6mn +6%).
Index, travel stocks
The August ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 165; AsPac 76; Europe 124; US 296. (Base: Dec 06.)

Asia Pacific inbound/outbound, Travel Indices
21 September 2015
Asia Pacific inbound/outbound
Our calculation of AsPac visitor arrivals/resident departures for latest-months May/June, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: +7.6%/+7.4%. Arrivals boosted by big growth in Japan, Thailand.
Travel Indices
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in August for US hotel companies was 3338, -6.9%.
  The ‘TBA Travel Stocks Index’ for August shows: World 165, AsPac 76, Eur 124, US 296.
  The ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in August, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 123.
  The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at January 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ is based on 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ is based on 100 at December 2014.

JATA Expo, Hotel-room pipeline, US visitors, China visitors
18 September 2015
JATA Expo
JATA Tourism Expo Japan scheduled for September 24-27 at Tokyo Big Sight. Website: www.t-expo.jp/en/
  Update:
-Domestic exhibitors from all 47 prefectures, including new ones Aichi (6sqm booth), Gifu (10sqm). Largest, Okinawa (from 50 to 60sqm). Other increases - Toyama (2 to 10), Nara (1 to 10), Tochigi Prefecture (1 to 9), Seibu/Princess (4 to 8), Japan Shopping Tourism Organization (1 to 30).
-Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan plan to host special exhibits. China has 20 booths, Korea 50. New exhibitors: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Moldova, South Africa, Tahiti. Largest is US (and growing from 58 to 60 booths).
Hotel-room pipeline
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for August, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline has grown: World +7%, US +12%, AsPac +5%, Eur -9%.
US visitors
US 2015 visitor data has been absent until now. Therefore, more than usual information here:
-Q1 visitors 16.0mn +1.2%. Top-10: Canada -4%, Mexico +6%, Japan -7%, UK -3%, Brazil +8%, China +19%, Korea +16%, Germany +1%, France -15%, Australia -3%.
-March visitors 5.9mn + 0.2%. Top-10: Canada -6%, Mexico +5%, Japan -10%, UK +2%, Brazil -5%, China +19%, Korea +11%, Germany +6%, France -27%, Australia -4%.
  Surprises: very weak France market, weak Australia, Canada. No surprise – good China, Korea.
China visitors
Another month of falling foreign visitors, now 4 out of 7 this year. That leaves YTD almost 1% down. Is this related to slowing economic activity (slowing growth, not slowing down) or something else? Outbound still seems strong – we estimate +14% but for a different period. And other measures, such as international airline traffic, are booming.
*A report on some of these topics in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here.

JATA Expo, IATA 2014 report, Malaysia Airlines
17 September 2015
JATA Expo
JATA Tourism Expo Japan scheduled for September 24-27 at Tokyo Big Sight. Website: www.t-expo.jp/en/
  Update:
-Estimated visitors - public 110,000, trade/press 40,000. 2014: public 116,526, trade/press 41,063, 151 countries/regions, 1129 companies/organisations.
-Designed to promote tourism both overseas and inbound to Japan, as well as domestic tourism within the country.
-Events - Japan Night (for MICE); Japan Tourism Award (for organisations and individuals); exhibit on domestic and worldwide travel information; promotion on the planned Hokkaido bullet train line; gourmet project with rice dishes from around Japan.
-At the International Tourism Forum - tourism and culture, Japan’s mission in tourism.
-Visit Japan Travel Mart, Visit Japan MICE Mart, organised by Japan’s DMO (Japan National Tourism Organization).
-Asia Travel Market Analysis (on Asia’s major tourist destinations), Halal Symposium (on the travel market for moslems).
-International Tourism Leaders Meeting, focussing on Asean.
-New slogan - Move See Feel.
IATA 2014 report
IATA WATS report for 2014 includes:
-International RPKs to/from/within Asia Pacific 42% share.
-Member airlines seats sold 3.3bn +5.8%.
-Airlines based in Asia Pacific 33.3% share of seats sold, 1.1bn +8%; Europe 26.3%, 873.4mn +6%; North America 25.3%, 841.8mn +3%.
-Top-5 airlines by seats sold: American with US Airways 142.2mn; Delta 129.4mn; Southwest 129.1mn; China Southern 100.7mn; United 90.4mn.
-Top-5 airport-pairs, all in AsPac: Hong Kong-Taipei 5.1mn +4%; Jakarta-Singapore 3.5mn +1%; Hong Kong-Singapore 2.8mn +8%; Hong Kong-Shanghai 2.7mn +6%; Hong Kong-Seoul 2.5mn, +26%.
-Top-5 domestic airport-pairs, also all in AsPac: Cheju-Seoul 10.5mn +11%; Fukuoka-Tokyo 8.3mn, +12%; Sapporo-Tokyo 7.8mn, -4%; Melbourne-Sydney 7.0mn -5%; Beijing-Shanghai 5.8mn -1%.
-Airline alliances: Star 23.7% share of RPKs; Sky Team 20.5%; One World 18.3%.
Malaysia Airlines
It’s not getting any better. The fall in seat sales in June, -8%, was the biggest this year. That puts YTD -4%, and hard to pull back this year. New management of the ‘new’ airline will probably gain from the bad results in the last four months of 2014 (-8%). DCB (Dead Cat Bounce; a phrase from the finance world) will probably mean growth Sep-Dec this year. But don’t be fooled; figures will still be lower than those for 2013, even if they are ahead on 2014. If you know how to play with figures, the game is easy.
*A report on some of these topics in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here.

JATA Expo, Industry updates, Tokyo airports, Hong Kong/Macau’s China visitors
16 September 2015
JATA Expo
JATA (Japan Association of Travel Agents) and JTTA (Japan Travel and Tourism Association) are due to run JATA Tourism Expo Japan September 24-27 at Tokyo Big Sight.
  This is the 2nd year after integration of Japan’s hitherto two largest travel events. Scheduled keynote speaker is Pascal Lamy, former head of the World Trade Organization and now head of the World Committee on Tourism Ethics.
  The event comprises:
-Business Meeting. Presentations.
-International Tourism Forum. Presentations.
-Travel exhibition (with 1500 booths).
-Tourism Awards.
Website: www.t-expo.jp/en/
An editorial representative of Travel Business Analyst is due to be present to compile reports.
Travel industry updates
-American August RPKs were +5.0%.
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) August seats sold 3.09mn +8.5%.
-Copenhagen airport August passengers handled 2.6mn, +5.5%.
-Frankfurt airport August passengers handled 6.3mn +3.2%.
-London Heathrow airport August passengers handled 7.33mn +4%.
Tokyo airports
No respite for Narita airport. Thru May (latest available) its passenger-count was down 11%, as Haneda airport grew 33%. Haneda is much smaller, but it has two runways and at these rates, it will count half Narita’s total by year-end.
Hong Kong’s and Macau’s China visitors
Arrivals into Hong Kong have fallen in 3 of the past 7 months, but the total is still ahead 2% thanks to 32% growth in the Lunar New Year month. Worse news for Macau. Down in all months except that LNY month, and down 5% YTD.
*A report on some of these topics in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here.

Travel industry updates, Asia Pacific travel index
15 September 2015
Travel industry updates
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling statistically; plus Aer Lingus soon) is on a roll. Seat sales +10% thru August. Not all comparable figures are released, but it appears around 75% of the growth is coming from I and V – although together they are only about 70% the size of B.
-US July visitors spent US$18.1bn +1%.
Index, travel numbers, Asia Pacific
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jun +2E; May +5.4P; Apr +3.4; Mar +4.9; Feb +2.1; Jan +3.2. 2014: Dec +4.3; Nov +2.1; Oct +4.0; Sep +4.3; Aug +5.7; Jul +5.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates
14 September 2015
-IATA reports August airline share prices fell 5%.
-The 4-airline Singapore Airlines group had its best month this year in July. Seat sales grew nearly 7%, which puts YTD just above (0.2%) its 2014 counts. Sighs of relief all round.
-Washington Aviation Summary reports air pilot reports of drones in the US thru July were 650 +173%.
-WTO reports Jan-Jun arrivals 538mn +4%.

Aviation updates
11 September 2015
-Air France-KLM August seats sold 7.3mn +1.0%.
-Air Berlin August seats sold 3.33mn -4.2%.
-Brussels airport July and August passengers handled 4.90mn +5.1%.
-Easyjet August seats sold 7.06mn +6.8%.
-Finnair August seats sold 960k +8.7%.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) August RPKs were +8.6%.
-Ryanair August seats sold 10.4mn +10.5%.
-SAS August seats sold 2.4mn +0.1%.

Index, travel numbers, Europe
10 September 2015
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jun +5E; May +6.2; Apr +6.4; Mar +6.6; Feb +7.2; Jan +6.8. 2014: Dec +5.5; Nov +6.1; Oct +3.2; Sep +4.7; Aug +4.3; Jul +3.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Aviation updates
9 September 2015
-ACI reports Europe’s airports July passengers handled were +6.7%.
-IATA member airlines July RPKs were +8.2%.
-Southwest August RPKs were +7.5%.
-United August RPKs were +1.5%.

Index, travel numbers, world
8 September 2015
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jun +4E; May +5.3P; Apr +4.8; Mar +5.0; Feb +4.5; Jan +4.2. 2014: Dec +5.8; Nov +4.3; Oct +4.5; Sep +4.9; Aug +4.9; Jul +4.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

TBA Travel-Tech-Stocks Index
7 September 2015
Our ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in August, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 123. Last month 127. (Base: Dec 14.)

Aviation updates
4 September 2015
-Aeroflot Jan-Jun seats sold 17.9mn +14.0%.
-Delta August seats sold 16.8mn +4.6%.
-IATA reports member airlines’ July RPKs +8.2%.
-Ryanair August seats sold 10.4mn +10%.

Travel industry updates
3 September 2015
Singapore visitor arrivals. Oh dear. Figures we have seen indicate arrivals in the latest month, June, hardly grew - +0.3%. At that rate, the all-2015 total will still be 2% below 2014 - which was 3% below 2013.
  We assume heads will roll - whether justified or not. Partly because elections this month will produce a government that will say it is going to do something - whether practical/possible or not.

Travel industry updates
2 September 2015
-Cologne Jan-Jun visitors 1.65mn +6%, producing 2.88mn overnights +8%.
-Dubai airport July passengers handled 6.68mn +29.6%. Management says YTD total is 45.0mn +12.9%; our calculations indicate 51.2mn +14.1%.
-New Singapore data we have seen shows a turnaround in July in air passengers. Up 8% with particularly-strong growth on Thailand +18%, China +15%, Malaysia +11%, Japan +10%. But even the largest, Indonesia, was up, +3%.
  YTD is touching +2%. Not great, but nevertheless may indicate the end of Singapore’s 18-month hiccup.

Travel Stocks
1 September 2015
Some serious falls in August. Our Travel Stocks Index shows AsPac has fallen 25% on end-2000 prices! And stockmarkets were in trouble also; the fastest growth was Dublin’s – but even that was down 2%!
  Read on.
  Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in August. Airlines: biggest growth, Wizz +9%; biggest fall, Air Asia -36%. Hotels: MGM +4%, Wynn -27%. Others: Hertz +8%, Kuoni -25%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, ANA +16%; biggest fall, Turkish -17%. Hotels: MGM +6%, Jinjiang -23%. Others: Royal Caribbean +14%, eDreams -26%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 165, US 296, AsPac 76, Eur 124.  Index previous month: WW 175, US 302, AsPac 93, Eur 131. NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 123; previous month 127.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Dublin -2% (sic!); biggest fall, Hong Kong -12%. Previous month: Zurich +6%; Hong Kong -6%. 
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

Travel Intelligence, Travel Pursuits
31 August 2015
Travel Intelligence
-Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia, page 6, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10041998#/6

Travel Pursuits
-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia, page 26 , compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10041998#/26

Seat sales by top-3 no-frills-airlines
28 August 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top no-frills-airlines (in each of 3 regions) in June, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: (Q2 only for) Air Asia +9.9%; Ryanair +14.1%; Southwest +4.5%.

AsPac travel industry updates
27 August 2015
-Air Asia seats sold Q2 5.95mn +7%.
-Air New Zealand’s loyalty program has 1.9mn members +17%.
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) July seats sold 2.98mn +6.9%.
-JAL Group Japan summer vacation (Aug 7-16) international seats sold 274,000 +1.7%, domestic 1.08mn +3.8%.

World hotel results
26 August 2015
The May hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 0.2; AsPac 0.7; Europe -0.5; US 0.5. Previous month: World 1.3; AsPac -3.4; Europe -1.2; US 1.1.

Travel industry updates
25 August 2015
-Aeroflot Group seats sold Jan-Jul 22.1mn +13.3%; Aeroflot 14.6mn +9.8%.
-Europe air seats sold Q3 forecast +5.4%. Source: European Cities Marketing, Forward Keys.
-SAS’s loyalty program has 4mn members; growth not given.
-US international air seats sold Jan-Jul 121.6mn +5%.
-US nationals overseas outbound (excluding Canada, Mexico) June 3.7mn +5%, Jan-Jun 16.2mn +5%.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
24 August 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in June, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -0.9% for AF+KL+A5, +9.1% BA+IB+VY, +2.6% LH+LX+OS.

Travel Indices
21 August 2015
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in July for US hotel companies was 3639, -1.4%.
  The ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ for July shows: World 175; AsPac 93; Europe 131; US 302.
  The ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in July, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 127.
  The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at January 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ is based on 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ is based on 100 at December 2014.

Travel industry updates
20 August 2015
-When counts are counted for this month, they should show that Ryanair in Europe has overtaken Southwest in the US to become the largest NFA (no-frills-airline) in the world. Caveats – there are bigger FSAs (full-service-airlines; China Southern is one), and on a YTD basis, SW will still be bigger than Ryan.
-International June air seat sales +3.0%. Source: IATA.

Index, travel stocks
19 August 2015
The July ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 175; AsPac 93; Europe 131; US 302. (Base: Dec 06.)

US travel industry updates
18 August 2015
-Visitor spend Jan-Jun was US$112.2bn +1%.
-July occupancy 75.3% +2.3%, average room rate US$124.32 +5.9%. Source: STR.
-Travel agency July air ticket sales US$7.4bn -1.6%. Source: ARC.

Hotel-room pipeline
17 August 2015
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for July, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline has grown: World +7%, US +11%, AsPac +6%, Eur -10%.

Asia Pacific inbound/outbound
14 August 2015
Our calculation of AsPac visitor arrivals/resident departures for April/May, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: +4.1%/+9.8%. Arrivals boosted by big growth in Japan, Thailand, outbound by China’s big numbers (although its growth is slowing).

Index, travel numbers, US
13 August 2015
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: May +4E; Apr +3.7P; Mar +4.1; Feb +3.9; Jan +2.9. 2014: Dec +4.8; Nov +3.6; Oct +4.5; Sep +5.0; Aug +3.8; Jul +5.3; Jun +5.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

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Current Issues...

Main contents in current issues of our newsletters and reports:

Travel Business Analyst, Asia Pacific: Travel trends. Singapore Airlines group. Travel prices. Plus: Market Monitor; World Travel Industry Index; ZERO; Market Headlines; Market Outlook; and 20 regular tables of market data.


Travel Business Analyst, Europe: Air France group. Travel trends. London visitor business. Plus: Market Monitor; World Travel Industry Index; ZERO; Extracts from Net Value or People-in-Travel; Market Headlines; and 16 regular tables of market data.


Net Value: AirBnB; Japan online; France trends; others.


People-in-Travel: Silvano Cassano; Pascal Lamy; others.


Foxtrots/Trottings (recent): Virgin on the cliff; Lufthansa group.


ZERO (occasional): Fuel efficiency; Electric-powered aircraft engines.

 

Market Data