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Travel Stocks
1 May 2015
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in April. Airlines: biggest growth, China Southern +39% (sic); biggest fall, Jet AW -22%. Hotels: Shangri-La +11%, Wynn -11%. Others: CTS +37% (sic), Royal Caribbean -16%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Air China +41% (sic); biggest fall, Air Asia -13%. Hotels: NH +9%, Wynn -12%. Others: T Cook +13%, Priceline -7%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 180, US 306, AsPac 104, Eur 130.  Index previous month: WW 179, US 306, AsPac 99, Eur 132.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Hong Kong +13%; biggest fall, Frankfurt -5%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

TBA All-Travel Index
30 April 2015
The December ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +5% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +3%.

Travel industry updates
29 April 2015
-London Heathrow airport handled 16.4mn passengers, +2.0%, in Q1.
-Singapore airport handled 4.54mn passengers, +0.9%, in March.
-Starwood Hotels plans to open 40 hotels in Europe 2015-19.
-United Airlines RPKs were +0.1% in Q1.
-Outbound travel by US nationals to overseas markets 4.2mn, +6%, in February.

Seat sales by top-3 no-frills-airlines
28 April 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top no-frills-airlines (in each of 3 regions) in February, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +4.3% for Southwest, +29.9% (sic) Ryanair, (and Q4 only for) Air Asia, +2.2%.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
27 April 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in February, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +0.8% for AF+KL, +8.0% BA+IB+VY, -1.1% LH+LX+OS.

Travel industry updates
24 April 2015
-Aeroflot sold 1.9mn seats, + 5.6%, in March. The Aeroflot group sold 2.8mn, +14.3%
-Following our questions, Future Market Insights has restated its figures on the world’s car-rental market* - US$51.2bn in 2014 and forecast to be US$106bn in 2020.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

Airport passengers in Europe
23 April 2015
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for November, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +13.3% (all airports +5.2%). Last month: +7.8% (+5.0%).

Taiwan Update
22 April 2015
-There has been a 10x increase in five years in visitors from China into Taiwan, although from a tiny base.
  In 2013, China’s share was 36%, growth 11%, and although faster than the overall 10%, not much. Because China was a newish market, and with total-China outbound growing 18%, Taiwan should have been achieving at least 20% growth.
  This was corrected in 2014 – growth was 39% to give China a 40% share. That was well above total China outbound, growing around 15%.
  Direct flights China-Taiwan opened progressively starting 2003, then rapidly from 2008, then from 2009 were more or less entirely open. Now there are an average of 100 flights daily.
-THSR (Taiwan High Speed Rail), which runs 345km Taipei-Kaohsiung, has eight stations; four more are due this year.
  Daily ridership of about 130,000 has decimated air travel; half the air routes between Taipei and the country's western cities had been discontinued. Total domestic air traffic was expected to be halved and the last Taipei-Kaohsiung flight stopped in 2012.
  THSR also affected other modes of transport. After THSR started, non-high-speed train traffic Taipei-Kaohsiung fell 10%. We are surprised it was not more. So this probably indicates that THSR took most of its traffic from air, but see also next.
  The parallel road expressway also lost 10% of its traffic, and long-distance bus companies lost 20-30%.
Notes: Other related reports on Taiwan have appeared in the Foxtrots and Trottings blogs.

World hotel results
20 April 2015
The January hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 2.9; AsPac 2.3; Europe 4.3; US 2.2. Previous month: World 2.0; AsPac -0.2; Europe 3.0; US 2.4.

Updates on Kyoto, Sun Star, ITB/IPK reports
21 April 2015
-Kyoto, Japan targets 3mn foreign visitors in 2020. That would mean annual average growth of 15.0%, and thus the target is unlikely to be reached.
-South Africa’s Sun Star hotel group, capitalising on the memory of the late-president Nelson Mandela, has built (a meritless) art installation overlooking the city. It can hold 100 people.

Some findings in two reports from ITB Berlin and IPK International. One on general outbound (data shown is as given; no consistency in report) and the other on young (15-29 years) and old (not defined; we presume 60+) from Germany and the UK:
-Early bookings (at least four months before departing): From China 8%; Germany 29%; Japan 8%; Netherlands 33%; Russia 6%; UK 28%.
-Last-minute bookings (less than one month before departing). China 62%, compared with 73% year earlier; from France 53% and 51%; Germany 46% NA; Italy 64% 69%; Japan 58% 53%; Russia 73% (same).
-Germany has 19% of the market in Europe for young travellers, UK 9%.
-Germany has 17% of the market in Europe for older travellers, UK 19%.
-Of young from Germany 40% prefer sun and beach, but only 29% of older travellers. Opposite for UK - 29% of young prefer sun and beach, but 40% of older travellers.
-Top-3 destinations are the same for both markets - Spain, France, Italy.

Index, travel stocks
17 April 2015
The March ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 179; AsPac 99; Europe 132; US 306. (Base: Dec 06.)

-Link to a report entitled ‘PAGPFT: GTAC IATA WTO WTTC’ in the Foxtrots blog contains critical comment on banal statements from GTAC – a new creation from IATA, WTO, WTTC. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2015/04/17/pagpft-gtac-iata-wto-wttc/

-Link to a report entitled ‘France Fiddles Figures?’ in the Foxtrots blog contains critical comment on the claim of France’s DMO that it counts more arrivals from the US than does the UK. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2015/04/14/france-fiddles-figures/

Travel industry updates
16 April 2015
-ARC reports that air tickets sold were US$8.7bn, +2.2%, in March.
-ARC reports that air tickets sold were US$24.1bn, +0.2%, over Jan-Mar. Ticket transactions 41.3mn +4.6%, passenger segments 88.5mn, +1.4%.
-PATA forecasts that there will be 547mn visitor arrivals, +6%, in AsPac this year. PATA’s ‘Asia Pacific’ is eclectic, including, for instance, North America except Mexico, and Chile.

-Link to a report entitled ‘Cheating via Kayak, to CarDelMar and Goldcar’ in the Trottings blog on bad client treatment. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2015/04/04/trottings-cheating-via-kayak-to-cardelmar-and-goldcar/

Visitor spend totals
15 April 2015
The WTO reports spending in destinations by visitors US$1.245tn, +3.7% (in real terms, taking into account exchange rate fluctuations and inflation) in 2014. And spending by travellers on international passenger transport US$221bn; no growth given.

Hotel-room pipeline
14 April 2015
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for March, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline has increased: World +7%, US +14%, AsPac +6%, Eur -7%.

-Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia, page 6, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10040896#/6

-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia, page 30, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10040896#/30

Index, travel numbers, US
13 April 2015
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jan +4E. 2014: Dec +5P; Nov +3.6; Oct +4.5; Sep +5.0; Aug +3.8; Jul +5.3; Jun +5.3; May +5.6; Apr +6.6; Mar +1.4; Feb +2.9. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Index, travel numbers, Asia Pacific
10 April 2015
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jan +3E. 2014: Dec +4P; Nov +2.1; Oct +4.0; Sep +4.3; Aug +5.7; Jul +5.3; Jun +4.6; May +7.5; Apr +6.2; Mar +1.6; Feb +5.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates
9 April 2015
-Travel spending (domestic and inbound) in the US grew 4.5% in Q4, compared with GDP growth of 2.2%.
-Easyjet sold 5.49mn seats, +7.5%, in March.
-IATA members’ RPKs were +6.2% in February.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs were +7.4% in March.
-Ryanair sold 6.67mn seats, +28%, in March.
-ACI reports airports in Europe handled +5.0% passengers in February.
-Air France-KLM sold 6.3mn seats, -0.4%, in March. Transavia 0.6mn, +9.0%.

Index, travel numbers, Europe
8 April 2015
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jan +7E. 2014: Dec +6P; Nov +6.1; Oct +3.2; Sep +4.7; Aug +4.3; Jul +3.5; Jun +6.0; May +3.5; Apr +5.3; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel Indices
7 April 2015
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in March was 3929, -0.2%. The TBA All-Travel Index, for March, shows 179 for World, 306 for US, 132 for Europe, 99 for Asia Pacific.
  The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at January 2000, the TBA All-Travel Index is based on 100 at December 2006.

Index, travel numbers, world
6 April 2015
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jan +5E. 2014: Dec +6P; Nov +4.3; Oct +4.5; Sep +4.9; Aug +4.9; Jul +4.8; Jun +4.8; May +5.7; Apr +6.4; Mar +1.5; Feb +5.2. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates
3 April 2015
Different reports on these topics are published in the Travel Business Analyst newsletters, Net Value, People-in-Travel monthly-reports. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.
-Phocuswright says 22mn adults in the US market stayed in private accommodation when travelling for leisure over the past year. That represents a sizeable 17% of all US travellers. Of the 83% remaining, 68% did not even consider renting a home, apartment or space when travelling, and 15% considered but did not rent.
-Aeroflot targets for its new no-frills-airline Pobeda (Victory) for 2018 are 40 B737s, 45 routes, 10mn seats sold. These are the same numbers that were targetted for another NFA, Dobrolet, and also for 2018, which Aeroflot launched then shut down in summer 2014.
-Air Berlin, and now its new CEO, Stefan Pichler, have serious strategic problems. Part-owner Etihad seems to regard the airline as a feeder to its routes out of Abu Dhabi.
  But what of the rest of AB’s network? Take Nice-Berlin. Few will fly, say, NCE-BER-Abu Dhabi, then on Etihad to Australia. So if NCE-BER is not making profits, will Etihad/Pichler stop the route?

Travel industry updates
2 April 2015
-Aeroflot sold 5.1mn seats, +15.7%, over January and February.
-IATA reports RPKs grew 6.2% in February – international +6.8%, domestic +5.3%.
-IPKI/ITBB forecast +3% growth for Europe outbound this year.

Travel Stocks
1 April 2015
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in March. Airlines: biggest growth, Air China +41% (sic); biggest fall, Air Asia -13%. Hotels: NH +9%, Wynn -12%. Others: T Cook +13%, Priceline -7%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +11%; biggest fall, Jet -14%. Hotels: Starwood +12%, Jinjiang -10%. Others: Orbitz +17%, CTS -4%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 179, US 306, AsPac 99, Eur 132.  Index previous month: WW 179, US 315, AsPac 98, Eur 125.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Frankfurt +5%; biggest fall, Bangkok -4%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

Travel industry updates
31 March 2015
-Dubai airport handled 5.97mn passengers, +5.3%, in February.
-US international air seats were 30mn, +6%, in January and February.
-Euromonitor has just released its counts for visitors in the top-100 cities – but for 2013. Our coverage is less comprehensive – the top 20 - but for 2014. We normally would release later, but to supplement Euromonitor’s 2013 coverage – which, unfortunately, becomes academic when released in 2015 – we show our initial counts.
  EM’s top-5, 2013: Hong Kong 26mn, Singapore 22mn, Bangkok 17mn, London 17mn, Paris 15mn. Our top-5, 2014: London 18mn, Bangkok 16mn, Paris 15mn, Singapore 15mn, Hong Kong 14mn.
Our report on this topic is in the current issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter. A different report is also included in the Foxtrots blog.

TBA All-Travel Index
30 March 2015
The October ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +3% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +4%.

Seat sales by top-3 no-frills-airlines
27 March 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top-3 no-frills-airlines in January, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +6.5% for Southwest, +31.1% (sic) Ryanair, (and Q4 only for) Air Asia, +2.2%.

AsPac 2014 outbound, travel industry updates
26 March 2015
-We calculate that visitor arrivals in Asia Pacific grew about-5.1% to 234mn in 2014, and outbound travel from AsPac markets about-9.2% to 236mn. Most of that outbound is from China (yes, 54%); without China, the AsPac total would have been about-5.4% to 127mn.
-Frankfurt airport handled 60mn passengers, +2.6%, in 2014.
-US (nationals only) outbound 4.9mn, +10%, in January.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
25 March 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in January, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +0.5% for AF+KL, +8.6% BA+IB+VY, -1.2% LH+LX+OS.

No-frills-/full-service-airlines, Asia Pacific/Europe
24 March 2015
We calculate that seat sales for NFAs (no-frills-airlines) in Europe grew about-7.5% in 2014. That was almost double the about-3.4% for FSAs (full-service-airlines). The difference was much less in Asia Pacific – about-7.7% for NFAs, not much faster than the about-6.3% for FSAs.

Europe airport passengers, US hotels
23 March 2015
Airports
-Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for October, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +7.8% (all airports +5.0%). Last month: +7.8% (+3.8%).
US hotels
-STR reports occupancy 62.3%, +3.2%, average room rate US$116.55, + 4.7%, in February.

China/Japan; outbound Japan, Korea
20 March 2015
-Is the China/Japan political face-off ending – for non-politicos? Arrivals in Japan from China in the first two months grew 99%. That helped Japan to report an extraordinary 43% growth in total arrivals over Jan-Feb. That’s the good news. The bad is that outbound travel continues to crumble – down 6% over Jan-Feb.

-It happened much faster and much bigger than we expected. Korea is now a bigger outbound travel market than Japan. Jan-Feb: 2.5mn from Japan; 3.3mn from Korea.

US travel agencies, Cathay Pacific
19 March 2015
-ARC reports that ticket sales by US-based travel agencies were US$7.7bn, +0.03% in February.
-Cathay Pacific with Dragonair:
  -Took exactly the same revenue per seat sold in 2014 as in 2013 – US$433. However, operating profit grew 11.8% to US$18 per seat sold.
  -Sold 31.6mn seats, +5.5%, in 2014.
  -Sold 2.68mn seats, +12.4%, in February.

World hotel results
18 March 2015
The December hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 2.0; AsPac -0.2; Europe 3.0; US 2.4. Previous month: 1.2; -2.5; 3.5; 1.3.

Korea overtaking Japan
17 March 2015
Korea is on track to become a larger outbound travel market than Japan. We estimate 16.6mn travellers from Japan in the next 12 months, probably Jan-Dec this year, and 16.9mn from Korea.

Index, travel stocks
16 March 2015
The February ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 179; AsPac 98; Europe 125; US 315. (Base: Dec 06.)

US travel index, Hotel-room pipeline
13 March 2015
Index, travel numbers, US
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Dec +5E; Nov +4P; Oct +4.5; Sep +5.0; Aug +3.8; Jul +5.3; Jun +5.3; May +5.6; Apr +6.6; Mar +1.4; Feb +2.9; Jan +4.0. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Hotel-room pipeline
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for February, the number of rooms in the pipeline has increased: World +14%, US +18%, AsPac +20%, Eur +2%.

US updates:
12 March 2015
-US visitors 75mn, +7%, in 2014; overseas (excluding Canada, Mexico) 34mn, +8%.
-US international air passengers 16.1mn, +5.4%, in January.

Index, travel numbers, Europe
11 March 2015
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Dec +5E; Nov +6P; Oct +3.2; Sep +4.7; Aug +4.3; Jul +3.5; Jun +6.0; May +3.5; Apr +5.3; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.1; Jan +6.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Index, travel numbers, Asia Pacific
10 March 2015
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Dec +4E; Nov +2P; Oct +4.0; Sep +4.3; Aug +5.7; Jul +5.3; Jun +4.6; May +7.5; Apr +6.2; Mar +1.6; Feb +5.3; Jan +5.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

ITB Berlin 2015
9 March 2015
Some results for last week’s ITB Berlin were better than we outlined in a report last week. Details:
-175,000 total visitors, +0.6%.
-115,000 trade visitors, +0.9%, of which 43% were from abroad, +3pts. Their length of stay was 2.4 days. +14.3%.
-10,096 exhibitors, -0.5%, from 186 countries, -1.6%.
-23,000 visitors, +4.5%, attended ITBB’s convention, but as entrance is free, the count is not a clear indicator of its value.
-Volume of business conducted (a figure not possible to verify) was US$7.4bn (at US$1 to €0.90), +3.1%. We calculate that as: US$42,500 per visitor, +2%; US$64,750 per trade visitor, +2%; US$737,000 per exhibitor, +4%.

ITB Berlin data
6 March 2015
-This week’s ITB Berlin appears to be smaller. All 2015 data will not be available until next week. But organisers Messe Berlin announced 10,096 exhibitors from 186 countries, and at least 100,000 trade visitors. In 2014 there were 10,147 exhibitors from 189 countries, a total 174,000 visitors including 114,000 trade visitors.
-Maldives expects that being the country partner of ITB Berlin (ITBB 2015 to ITB 2016) will “attract a visitor increase of around 8%”. This will be impossible to measure as the DMO forecasts 4mn visitors for 2015. It reports this as a 20% growth, although it is actually 30%. But whether +20% or +30%, the 8% thanks to ITBB will be part of that total, and not possible to separate.
-Mongolia targets 1mn visitors in 2020, contributing 14% of GDP. 2014: ‘about’ 400k and 5.3%.
-Myanmar visitor arrivals in 2014 were 3.08mn, +50.7%.
-Euromonitor says private travel rentals were worth US$39bn in 2013 and forecasts US$46bn in 2018. It reports this as 19% growth, which looks sizeable. But it is actually only an annual average 3.4%, which is laughably small. We estimate 20% annual growth, which, on Euromonitor’s 2013 total, would mean near US$100bn in 2018.

Travel industry updates
5 March 2015
-The Baird/STR hotel stock index was 3939, +4.5%, in February.
-Sheraton plans to open 20 hotels in 2015.
-Starwood plans to open 40 hotels in Europe 2015-19.

Index, travel numbers, world. ITB Berlin report.
4 March 2015
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Dec +6E; Nov +4P; Oct +4.5; Sep +4.9; Aug +4.9; Jul +4.8; Jun +4.8; May +5.7; Apr +6.4; Mar +1.5; Feb +5.2; Jan +6.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

-Link to Travel Intelligence reports on Germany, in TTG Asia’s ITB Berlin March 4 daily, pages 4&5, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10040550#/4

Travel industry updates
3 March 2015
-Copenhagen airport handled 25.6mn passengers +6.5%, in 2014.
-Dubai airport handled 6.90mn passengers, +7.7%, in January.
-Eurostar sold 10.4mn seats, +3%, in 2014.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) RPKs were +5.5% in February.
-IATA reported RPKs were +4.6% in January.
-Ryanair sold 5.8mn seats, +29%, in February.

Travel Stocks and TBA All-Travel Index
2 March 2015
Travel Stocks
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in February. Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +11%; biggest fall, Jet -14%. Hotels: Starwood +12%, Jinjiang -10%. Others: Orbitz +17%, CTS -4%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +23%; biggest fall, American -8%. Hotels: Accor +19%, Banyan -11%. Others: Airbus +14%, Hertz -18%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 179, US 315, AsPac 98, Eur 125.  Index previous month: WW 172, US 290, AsPac 101, Eur 124.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Dublin +9%; biggest fall, Istanbul -5%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in April’s newsletters. 2014 review - including comparison with end-year prices over the past 12 months, and with 5- and 10-years ago – in February newsletters.

TBA All-Travel Index
The October ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +4% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +1%.

Travel industry updates
27 February 2015
Seat sales by the world’s top-3 no-frills-airlines
Our calculation of seats sold by top-3 no-frills-airlines in December, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +3.1% for Southwest, +19.9% Ryanair, (and Q4 only for) Air Asia, +2.2%.

Travel industry updates, 2014
-Amadeus: 466.5mn air travel agency bookings, +5.2%; 695.4mn enplaned passengers, +12.9%.
-London Heathrow airport handled 73.4mn passengers, +1.4%, in 2014.
-US visitors spent US$222.3bn, +3.5%, in 2014; US travellers spent US$146.7bn outside the US, +7.3% ; trade surplus was US$75.7bn , -3.1%.

-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia, page 26, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10040279#/26

 

Travel industry updates
26 February 2015
Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in December, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +1.3% for AF+KL, +10.8% BA+IB, -1.2% LH+LX+OS.

Air Asia Q4
-Air Asia’s India operation seems to be starting well. In Q4 seat factor at 84% the highest of AA’s six airlines, and seat sales were 70% above its first operating Q, Q3. However, Q4 was bad for the group – growing only 2% - following falls in seat sales for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines.

Travel industry monthly updates:
-Aeroflot sold 2.7mn seats, + 17.7%, in January.
-US visitors spent US$18.8bn, +1.6%, in December; US travellers spent US$12.8bn outside the US, +7.4% ; trade surplus was US$6.0bn , -9.0%.

-Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia, page 8, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10040279#/8

Airport passenger traffic in Europe
25 February 2015
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for September, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +7.8% (all airports +3.8%). Last month: +5.0% (+6.8%).

World hotel results
24 February 2015
The November hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.2; AsPac -2.5; Europe 3.5; US 1.3. Previous month: 1.4; -0.1; 1.8; 2.3.

China, US
23 February 2015
With most data in, although still some provisional or our estimates, here are the 2014 accounts and salient points of the two big world travel businesses – China and the US.
China in
Previous official counts do not add up to the all-2014 total given – but the difference is not substantial. Our counts show foreign (passport holders) visitors were flat (+0.5%).
  Of the biggest sources (in size): Koreans +5%, Japanese -6%, US nationals +0.4%.
  But note the distortion - an American national living in Hong Kong, for example, is counted as being from the US when he enters China.
China out.
A storming end to the year, after some weak earlier months. We estimate the total grew 15%.
US in.
Heading for a mixed year. Growth 7%, and slightly higher, closer to +8%, for the overseas markets (non Canada, Mexico). The best was Mexico, representing around 23% of the total – and growing at 20%!
  That overall growth hides the fact that two or the top-4 markets were falling – Canada, Japan. The other, the UK, was +3%.
US out.
Total +10%. But the big item was travel to Mexico. This seems to be a mutual pact, with outbound +22% matching the +20% inbound-from-Mexico. That growth makes Mexico 37% of the total.
  Europe and Asia Pacific were each +4%, but the Caribbean (smaller than Europe but bigger than AsPac) was +10%.

Travel industry updates
20 February 2015
Travel industry updates, 2014:
-Air Asia X sold 4.23mn seats, +33.9%.
-Etraveli revenue US$78mn (Sk639.0mn), +14%.
-Marriott revenue was US$13.8bn, +7.9%.
-Thai Air Asia sold 12.2mn seats, +16.3%.
-ARC reports US travel agency sales US$89.6bn, +4.0%.
-ARC reports US travel agency locations 12,862, -2.0%; that is 27% of peak.
-Virgin America had 3.4mn frequent flyer members, +16.2%.

Travel industry monthly updates:
-Air Asia X sold 1.09mn seats, +11.7%, in Q4.
-Cathay Pacific group sold 2.61mn seats, +2.7%, in January.
-Thai Air Asia sold 3.44mn seats, +16.2%, in Q4.
-ARC reports US travel agency sales US$7.70bn, -1.8%, in January.
-US visitor arrivals 5.8mn, +8%, in November.

Did you catch this?
19 February 2015
Some noteworthy 2014 results*:
-Visitor arrivals. Full-year - Japan +29%! Korea +18%! Taiwan +23%! YTD Asia Pacific regional +5%.
-International seat sales. Full-year - Air China +18%! China Southern +21%!
-Outbound travel, YTD, our estimates. China +14%, India +1%, Asia Pacific regional +9%.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

Hotel results, 2014:
18 February 2015
-Accor Hotels revenue was US$6.19bn (€5.45bn), +0.5%.
-Hilton Hotels revenue was US$10.5bn, +7.9%.
-Hyatt Hotels revenue was US$4.42bn, +5.5%.

Hotel-room pipeline
17 February 2015
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for January: World +10%, US +19%, AsPac +19%, Eur +2%.

Index, travel numbers, US
16 February 2015
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Nov +4E; Oct +5P; Sep +5.0; Aug +3.8; Jul +5.3; Jun +5.3; May +5.6; Apr +6.6; Mar +1.4; Feb +2.9; Jan +4.0. 2013: Dec +4.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Hotel results, 2014:
13 February 2015
-InterContinental Hotels revenue was US$1.86bn, -2.4%.
-Rezidor Hotels revenue was US$1.07bn (€937.3mn), +1.9%.
-Starwood Hotels revenue was US$5.98bn, -2.2%.

Index, travel stocks
12 February 2015
The January ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 172; AsPac 101; Europe 124; US 290. (Base: Dec 06.)

Index, travel numbers, Asia Pacific
11 February 2015
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Nov +2E; Oct +4P; Sep +4.3; Aug +5.7; Jul +5.3; Jun +4.6; May +7.5; Apr +6.2; Mar +1.6; Feb +5.3; Jan +5.5. 2013: Dec +5.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry monthly updates:
10 February 2015
-Air France-KLM sold 5.7mn seats, +0.5%, in January.
-American RPKs were -2.8% in January.
-Copenhagen airport handled 1.66mn passengers, +0.7%, in January.
-Easyjet sold 4.02mn seats, flat, in January.
-IATA reports RPKs were +6.1% in December.
-London Heathrow airport handled 5.45mn passengers, +1.3%, in January.
-SAS sold 1.7mn seats, flat, in January.
-Southwest RPKs were +8.6% in January.
-United RPKs were +1.1% in January.

Index, travel numbers, Europe
9 February 2015
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Nov +6E; Oct +3P; Sep +4.7; Aug +4.3; Jul +3.5; Jun +6.0; May +3.5; Apr +5.3; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.1; Jan +6.3. 2013: Dec +3.9. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates, 2014:
6 February 2015
-ACI reports passenger throughput at Europe’s airports +5.4%.
-IATA reports RPKs were +5.9%.
-Russia’s UT Air sold 11.2mn seats, +7%.

Outbound China
5 February 2015
According to our estimates based on current traffic trends, China will make a giant leap forward, to 120mn trips over the next 12 months!

Index, travel numbers, world
4 February 2015
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Nov +5E; Oct +4P; Sep +4.9; Aug +4.9; Jul +4.8; Jun +4.8; May +5.7; Apr +6.4; Mar +1.5; Feb +5.2; Jan +6.1. 2013: Dec +5.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates:
3 February 2015
-Etihad sold 14.8mn seats, +23%, in 2014.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) RPKs were +5.5% in January.
-JAL Group RPKs were +2.1% Oct-Dec.
-Ryanair sold 5.98mn seats, +30%, in January.
-Singapore airport handled 54.1mn passengers, +0.7% , in 2014.

Travel Stocks
2 February 2015
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in January. Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +23%; biggest fall, American -8%. Hotels: Accor +19%, Banyan -11%. Others: Airbus +14%, Hertz -18%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +29%; biggest fall, Thai -9%. Hotels: Belmond +9%, Wynn -17%. Others: Royal Carib Cruise +12%, Airbus -16%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 172, US 290, AsPac 101, Eur 124.  Index previous month: WW 171, US 306, AsPac 94, Eur 113.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Frankfurt +9%; biggest fall, Hong Kong -15%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

Airlines’ 2014
30 January 2015
Some comments on 2014 results for selected airlines in Europe, based on seats sold:
-Trouble at Air France-KLM (probably a fall only for AF but they hide the data), flat (+0.2%).
-Not much better at the Lufthansa group (Austrian, Lufthansa, Swiss), only +1%. Nevertheless, Lufthansa-alone became bigger than AF+KL.
-That makes IAG (British + Iberia, and soon Aer Lingus) sparkle, +9%.
-Air Berlin does not seem to profit from Oneworld membership or Etihad ownership – just +1%.
-Europe’s largest, Ryanair, +6%, but seems to have solved its winter-weakness problem – Nov +22%, Dec +20%.
-Has Norwegian – darling of the media – lost its way? +16% for the year, but only +5% Nov, +2% Dec.
-Easyjet overtakes Lufthansa on Europe routes to become region’s 2nd biggest after Ryanair.
-Secret airlines. We estimate seat sales of two airlines whose data not published. Lufthansa’s Germanwings +4%, IAG’s Vueling +25%.

Travel industry updates, 2014:
29 January 2015
-Hawaii visitor arrivals 8.28mn, +2.9%.
-Prague airport handled 11.1mn passengers, +1.6%.
-Russia’s Transaero sold 13.2mn seats, +5.6%.

Travel industry updates:
28 January 2015
2014:
-Dubai airport handled 70.5mn passengers, +6.1%.
-STR says the Americas (North and South) hotel occupancy was 64.4%, +3.4%, average room rate US$117.27, +4.1%.
-US international air passengers were 197.3mn, +7%.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.
-WTO reports 1.14bn visitors, +4.7%.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

Monthly:
-Dubai airport handled 6.50mn passengers, +7.5%, in December.
-US international air passengers were +4% in December.
-US outbound travel to overseas markets was 2.1mn, +4%, in November.

Travel Intelligence in TTG Asia
27 January 2015
-Link to Travel Intelligence column, in the TTG Asia Daily at ATF in Myanmar, page 8, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10040145#/8

Airline group traffic
26 January 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in November, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +0.1% for AF+KL, +8.8% BA+IB, +1.6% LH+LX+OS.

Travel industry updates:
23 January 2015
2014:
-Frankfurt airport handled 59.6mn passengers, +2.6%.
-Lyon airport handled 8.47mn passengers, -1.1%.
-Melbourne airport handled 8mn international passengers, +8%.
-Munich airport handled 39.7mn passengers, +3%.
-St Petersburg airport handled 14.3mn passengers, +11%.
-STR reports US hotel occupancy at 64.4%, +3.6%, average room rate US$115.32, +4.6%.

Monthly:
-Cathay (with Dragonair) sold 2.77mn seats, +6.5%, in December.
-Frankfurt airport handled 4mn passengers, -2%, in December.
-Visitors to the US spent US$18.4bn in November.
-World Travel Market’s conference and event program counted 17,036 attendees, +4.5%, at its November event.

Airports
22 January 2015
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for August, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +5.0% (all airports +6.8%). Last month: +5.0% (+4.7%).

AsPac travel commentary
21 January 2015
-Our AsPac estimates - inbound +5%, outbound +9%.
-China inbound. Still falling, -1%.
-Our China outbound estimate - +14%.
-Our India outbound estimate - +1%.
-Japan, Korea outbound 2014 - J 16.9mn, K 16.1mn!
-Thailand inbound 2014. Despite a late rally, arrivals in 2014 were still down 7%. China fell fractionally, but is growing on a monthly basis. Russia was down 8%, but is now falling much faster.

Index, travel stocks
20 January 2015
The December ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 171; AsPac 94; Europe 113; US 306. (Base: Dec 06.)

Hotel-room pipeline, China’s Big-3 airlines
19 January 2015
-Hotel-room pipeline. We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for December: World +19%, US +14%, AsPac +23%, Eur -2%.

-China’s Big-3 airlines. No change in order, but significant developments nevertheless. China Eastern remains largest in 2014 in international seats sold, 9.6mn, but it grew only 6%. Air China grew 18% and so reached just over 9.2mn, and China Southern grew even faster, 21%, taking it to just under 9.2mn. Equality has returned to China!
  If growths continue at those same rates this year, CS will be largest at end-2015, with just over 11mn seats sold, then AC with just under 11mn, and CE with just over 10mn.

Travel industry updates, 2014:
16 January 2015
-Austrian sold 11.2mn seats, -1.1%.
-Brussels airport handled 21.9mn passengers, +14.6%.
-Copenhagen airport handled 25.6mn passengers, +6.5%.
-Finnair's RPKs were +0.2%.
-Glasgow airport handled 7.7mn passengers, +4.8%.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) sold 77.3mn seats, +15.0%.
-London Luton airport handled 10.5mn passengers, +8.1%.
-London Stansted airport handled 20.0mn passengers, +12%.
-Southwest RPKs were +3.5%.
-Swiss sold 16.2mn seats, +1.3%.
-US travel agencies sold US$89.6bn worth of air tickets, +2.4%.

Travel industry monthly updates:
15 January 2015
-Air France sold 6.2mn seats, +1.3%, Transavia 0.5mn, +17.5%, in December.
-ACI member airports passengers handled were +5.3% in November.
-American RPKs were 0.4% in December.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) sold 5.8mn seats, +10.8%, in December.
-IATA member airlines RPKs were +6.0% in November.
-SAS sold 1.9mn seats, +7.1%, in December.
-Southwest RPKs were +2.8% in December.
-United RPKs were +0.1% in December.
-US travel agencies sold US$5.5bn worth of air tickets, +3.9%, in December.
-US visitors were 6.3mn, +6%, in October.

Index, travel numbers
14 January 2015
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Oct +5E; Sep +5E; Aug +4.2; Jul +5.7; Jun +5.8; May +6.3; Apr +7.5; Mar +2.1; Feb +3.4; Jan +4.5. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Egypt, Scoot
13 January 2015
-A sort-of political stability in Egypt may have brought better results for its hotels. On a same-store basis, we estimate that in 2014 occupancy fell 9.0% to 32%. But average room rates grew 13.2% to US$72 (based on a constant US$s, at US$1 to EL7.15).
  But current-day results are worse – 2014 occupancy -5% to 28%, ARR -13% to US$122.

-Getting figures from words from (a hazardous task) we calculate Scoot sold an average of 167k seats monthly over the past six months. That’s the same as the previous six months, but that earlier period included peak months, so the result looks good. Annual growth seems to be running at just under 17%.
  Scoot’s annual count is around 2mn. That is less that Air Asia X at the same stage of its life (2.4mn, +32%). And its current monthly seat sales are smaller – AAX was close to 350k/month in 2014.

Index, travel numbers
12 January 2015
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Oct +6E; Sep +5P; Aug +7.6; Jul +6.1; Jun +4.9; May +8.4; Apr +7.7; Mar +4.4; Feb +5.6; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

9 January 2015
2014 results:
-Air Berlin sold 31.7mn seats, +0.6%.
-Amsterdam airport handled 55mn passengers, +4.6%.
-Easyjet sold 65.3mn seats, +6.5%.
-Finnair sold 9.63mn seats, +3.9%.
-Hawaiian sold 10.2mn seats, +2.6%.
-Icelandair sold 2.6mn seats, +15%.
-Ryanair sold 86.4mn seats, +6%.

 

8 January 2015
Big Changes: British Airways, Club Med, Lufthansa.
To start the new year, our thoughts on what we believe are important changes that will have a wider affect outside these companies. At British/Aer Lingus, Club Med, Lufthansa/Germanwings.

British Airways
In December, IAG (a holding company that comprises British, Iberia, Vueling) made a surprise bid to buy Aer Lingus (AL). There was an initial refusal, as usual, and there is likely to be further developments.
  But outside that there are important factors. At the time British (BA) and Iberia formed IAG in 2011, we said BA should have taken over AL and not Iberia – which was in trouble and which is still not out of it.
  Part of our reasoning was that the Willie Walsh, head of BA (and now also of IAG), had previously been 26 years at AL, including his CEO role there. To say the least, he must have known a lot about AL.
  If he did not buy then because AL was not in a good state (it was losing money at the time he left), then Walsh was presumably not a good CEO. (Indeed, we also raised the question as to why BA had chosen him.)
  And why now buy AL now? If AL is in better shape – it is, marginally – then that is an even more negative comment about Walsh.
  But overall, IAG’s move may be for different reasons. FSAs* in Europe (and in many other regions as well), such as BA, are finding it hard to survive. IAG has already bought Vueling, part-LCA*/part-NFA*. And AL could be another move in this direction; AL is similar to Vueling – albeit NFA on its intraEurope routes, and FSA/LCA on its transAtlantic flights.
  Ironically, British has been here before, being in the rather ridiculous situation of having started two NFAs itself and then selling them off – because, in the common- but often-misguided-belief, that it must ‘stick to its core competence’.
  Air France is still trying to reorganise itself to expand its NFA Transavia into an LCA – although it is so far being prevented by unions in France from doing so. And Lufthansa is doing the same thing, see below.

Club Med
China’s Fosun has agreed to buy Club Med at a price that values the company at about US$1.1bn (although that is not the amount paid by Fosun). Fosun first bought into CM, just 10%, in 2010. At the time this investment was cheered, because Fosun would surely save CM (although the logic was shakey; Fosun was a Chinese company and China was an important and growing travel market – but Fosun was not in the travel business before that!).
  The stockmarket, at least, does not think Fosun has been much help – CM’s share price has fallen from over US$150 in 2000 to around US$30 now. It is trying to go upmarket. Even though that is far from its image, even today, still it persists.
  We need to go back a long way to explain today’s problems at CM. A commentary in People-in-Travel, a version of which was published in The Economist in the year Fosun bought its 10%:
  The reason CM’s decline started - in the 1980s - was when co-founder Gilbert Trigano preferred to give the top job to his son Serge rather than the then equal number-two, Jean-Robert Reznik - who was generally considered to have a better grasp of marketing. Serge was just the son of his dad.
  Going up-market seems a sound business tactic - getting more revenue per customer. But there are some important challenges: converting existing customers to accept, in effect, a new product costing more; or finding new customers; or making more profit from a product that costs more to produce.
  We believe the post-Trigano- and subsequent-teams underestimated these challenges, and indeed were not able to overcome them.
  Also, Henri Giscard d’Estaing has been in his post more than 10 years [now 15] and has also failed to make the upmarket push (which he has tried twice [now four]) to work. The blame is put on 9/11 but the decline started well before that.
  We are amazed that HGdE is still in the top job after 15 years of failure. For the present he will stay, but surely Fosun will replace him in the next six months? But to do what? CM is now such a mess of products and marketing messages that it is probably not possible to save.
  One way might be to dump the luxury and return to the original formula – simplicity, fun. The other way – build luxury resorts – does not seem to be what customers want, and is certainly still not the image inspired by the CM name.
  But then there is Fosun. We know little about its competence in strategy, but we guess it has little, if any, in the travel business. But, being a Chinese company, proud, it will not back down for some time (five years?) and then either steadily drop the luxury business and concentrate on fun resorts in locations popular with pleasure-seekers from China – such as Hainan, Maldives, and probably also Club Med’s France homeland.

Lufthansa
The Lufthansa Group (LG) is reworking its airline strategy. It has broadly understood what needs to be done, but its changes are 4-times more complicated than they need to be. Let us explain:
  As we have noted before, FSAs of a certain size (we are not certain of numbers, but one measure could be around 70mn seat sales in a year) need to operate an LCA and NFA as well as their FSA. The LG has its FSA Lufthansa (LH; plus Austrian, Swiss), and its NFA Germanwings (GW). GW is not a success because LH controls it too tightly; LG did not follow NFA ‘rules’ - see end of this story.
  Now LG is trying again, albeit in an unnecessary complicated way. Firstly, this is what LG plans (slightly abridged to make it easier to follow!):
LH has transferred its intraEurope routes not serving Frankfurt and Munich hubs to GW, and GW and Eurowings will continue also to operate their current networks. Longhaul services, due end-2015, will be with Sun Express (a JV of Lufthansa and Turkish).
  LH is needed, but only two others – such as GW as an LFA, and Eurowings (with or without Sun Express) as an LCA. Under the present plans, Eurowings, GW, Sun are all part-LCA/part-NFA; in marketing terms alone, surely LG management can see that is a dumb plan?
  But the plan may simply show that LG management still does not know what to do. After making the first mistake with GW, this seems strange. But perhaps it will learn from what both Air France and British/IAG are trying to do, and then make the necessary further changes in its own structure.
  We give LG two years before it readjusts its structure closer to what we are saying.

*Notes:
-FSA = full-service-airline. Offering first/business/economy, travel agency bookings, meals/bookings/baggage/cancellations included, etc. As its name indicates – full service.
-LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline; see next.) An FSA but with lower operating costs (cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for instance), fewer fare types, which may have first and business cabins, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc. Usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.)
-NFA = no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: market freedom in terms of routes and aircraft choice; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; fares that are extremely low when booked at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no service frills; single economy-class cabin; no seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more.

 

7 January 2015
-Dubai airport handled 5.34mn passengers, +4.3%, in November.
-Easyjet sold 4.63mn seats, +3.2%, in December.
-Average price of aviation jet fuel, end December, was US$75/barrel, -42%.
-Finnair sold 721.2k seats, +3.9%, in December.
-2020. STR Global forecasts US hotels will have 64% occupancy, same as 2014, average room rate US$150, +30%.
-IATA members RPKs were +6.0% in November.
-The JAL Group sold 437k international seats, +3.3%, 1.57mn domestic seats, -2.3%, Dec 19-Jan 4.
-Ryanair sold 6mn seats, +20%, in December.
-US international air passenger traffic +7% in November.

6 January 2015
Index, travel numbers. Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Oct +3E; Sep +5P; Aug +4.3; Jul +3.5; Jun +6.0; May +3.5; Apr +5.3; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.1; Jan +6.3. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

5 January 2015
Index, travel numbers. Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Oct +5E; Sep +5P; Aug +5.5; Jul +5.1; Jun +5.0; May +6.1; Apr +7.0; Mar +2.4; Feb +5.4; Jan +6.9. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

2 January 2015
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in December. Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +29%; biggest fall, Thai -9%. Hotels: Belmond +9%, Wynn -17%. Others: Royal Carib Cruise +12%, Airbus -16%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +39%; biggest fall, Malaysia +4%. Hotels: InterContinental +14%, Wynn -6%. Others: TUI +13%, Orbitz -8%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 171, US 306, AsPac 94, Eur 113.  Index previous month: WW 168, US 299, AsPac 92, Eur 114.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Dublin +3%; biggest fall, Bangkok -6%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters, including comparison with end-year prices over the past 12 months, and with 5- and 10-years ago.

31 December 2014
-Domestic+International air seats sold. ICAO estimates 3.2bn, +5%, in 2014.
-Air France-KLM before-tax estimate. Reduced by US$244mn (€200mn) for all-2015; it is not clear what the earlier estimate was.

30 December 2014
-Japan Airlines international seat sales. 437,334 +3.3%, Xmas/New Year Dec 19-Jan 4. Forecast was 432,024.

29 December 2014
-Aeroflot sold 2.6mn seats, +9.9%, in November.
-US nationals’ travel to overseas destinations was 2.2mn, +5%, in October.

26 December 2014
Airline groups. Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in October, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -1.4% for AF+KL, +16.8% BA+IB, +1.7% LH+LX+OS.

24 December 2014
-London Heathrow airport handled 5.47mn passengers, +1.1%, in November.
-Germany’s TUI travel group turnover was US$22.8bn, +1.2%, in fiscal year through October.
-US travel spending (inbound, outbound, domestic) was +1.3% in Q3, following +3.3% Q2. Travel prices +0.6% in Q3, +6.6% Q2.
-US visitors spent US$18.5bn, +3%, in October.
-World visitor arrivals. WTO says arrivals were 978mn, +4.7%, Jan-Oct. It forecasts 1.1bn for all-2014, although we calculate that would be only +1.2%. We estimate 1.4bn, +4.8%.

23 December 2014
-Airline profits. IATA forecasts member airlines will report US$19.9bn net profit in 2014 - up from US$18.0bn forecast in June - and US$25.0bn in 2015.
-Alitalia expects to sell 800,000 seats, +7%, over Xmas/New Year Dec 23-Jan 7.
-Economy, premium air travel. IATA says seat sales in member airlines’ economy classes were +3.7%, premium +2.9%, in October.
-Japan v Korea. TBA estimates that Korea will just miss becoming a bigger outbound travel market this year than Japan – despite the big population difference (50mn, 127mn). We estimate 15.7mn for Korea and 17.0mn for Japan. On current trends, the switch should take place in Q3 2015.

22 December 2014
Airports. Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for July, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +5.0% (all airports +4.7%). Last month: +5.4% (+5.9%).

19 December 2014
The September hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.4; AsPac -0.1; Europe 1.8; US 2.3. Previous month: 1.9; 4.6; -1.3; 2.4.

18 December 2014
-North America outbound. Trips* +5%, overnights +8%, spend +19%, holiday travel +6%, business travel +4%, in 2014* . Trips* forecast +3% in 2015. *Definitions not clear. Source: IPKI/ITBB.

US updates:
-2013 spending restated. Inbound US$215bn, +7%; outbound US$137bn, +5%; thus positive balance of US$78bn, +11%.
-International air passengers. 166.4mn, +7%, Jan-Oct.
-Travel agencies. US$84.1bn airline tickets sold, +4.0%; 136.5mn ticket transactions +2.2%; 344.9mn passenger segments +2.8% Jan-Nov. Source: ARC.
-Visitors. 6.1mn, +2%, in September.

17 December 2014
-AEA member airline seat sales. 1mn daily, +3%, Xmas/New Year Dec 20-Jan 4.
-Japan Airlines international seat sales. 432,024 +10.2%, Xmas/New Year Dec 19-Jan 4.
-Russia travel market. Inbound forecast -13.3%, outbound forecast 42.8mn, -20.9%, in 2014. Domestic travel forecast 37mn in 2014 to 55mn in 2018. Source: R&M.
-Soccer world-cup, Brazil. Visitors 1mn, spend US$2000, 55% stayed 4-15 nights – during event*. *Definitions not clear; no comparisons given. Source: IPKI/ITBB.

16 December 2014
-Hotel-room pipeline. We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for November: World +17%, US +17%, AsPac +29%, Eur +4%.
-Index, travel stocks. The November ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 168; AsPac 92; Europe 114; US 299. (Base: Dec 06.)

15 December 2014
-Air Berlin sold 2.02mn seats, +0.5%, in November.
-Easyjet sold 4.39mn seats, +3.1%, in November.
-Ryanair all-2014 forecast increased from 89mn sold seats to 90mn, which would be +10.6%.

12 December 2014
-American RPKs -0.5% in November.
-Ryanair sold 6.35mn seats, +22.0% (sic, even though +6.1% year earlier), in November.
-Southwest RPKs +6.0% in November.
-United RPKs -0.3% in November.

11 December 2014
-AirBnB in Portland. Length-of-stay of ABB guests averages 3.9 nights, compared to 2.1 for hotel guests, and spend US$815 compared to US$360. (The daily difference is less; US$209 daily for ABB, US$171 for those in hotels.)
-Copenhagen airport handled 1.84mn passengers, +2.4%, in November.
-SAS sold 2.2mn seats, +2.3%, in November.

10 December 2014
-Asia Cruise Association. Asia’s market will be 3.8mn, a 14.3% annual average growth rate, giving it a 38% share in 2020.
-Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index 3839, +2.9%, in November, and +20.8% YTD.
-IATA member airline RPKs +5.7% in October.

9 December 2014
-Visitors from China into Switzerland forecast by Timetric to overtake those from France by 2018.
-Europe visitor arrivals +5% Q3. Source: ECM, Forward Keys.
-Japan Tourism Agency. Appointed Accenture for a 7-month contract to boost visitor arrivals in the target to count 20mn visitors in 2020. On present trends Japan will easily achieve that total.

8 December 2014
-Asian source markets forecast by PATA to be 462mn trips, a 7.3% annual average growth, over 2013-18.
-Monarch seat sales expected to be 7mn, +3%, this year.
-US outbound travel to overseas markets 2.4mn, +7%, in September, and 23.8mn, +7%, YTD.

5 December 2014
Some business news from the ILTM exhibition in Cannes, which closed yesterday. Reports on product updates at some of these organisations due to be published next week.

[] Leading Hotels, US.
-Due to launch an advertising campaign – a description it eschews, preferring ‘brand strategy’ – in 2015.
-Follows change of owners six years ago. It says it spent five years fixing the company, and this year “we started thinking about what we do from here”.

[] Mandarin Oriental, Hong Kong.
-Recent openings in China are Guangzhou, Shanghai; planned for Shenzhen.
-Projects include resorts – which MO previously avoided – in Bali, Maldives, Turkey. Work has stopped on Maldives while owner seeks refinancing.

[] Oetker Collection, Germany.
-Lanesborough, now closed for renovation, is due to reopen April 2015.

[] Peninsula, Hong Kong.
-Building a village for 100 people where a super typhoon hit in Mindanao, Philippines in November 2013.

[] Relais & Chateaux, France.
-New locations in Hong Kong and Maldives.
-Plans to launch new digital platform in 2015.

[] Six Senses, Thailand.
-Opened its first property in Europe, 90 minutes from Porto, Portugal. Was house, built around 1900; comprehensive renovation.
-Chose another corporate name for its properties in China - Liu Shan. Means roughly ‘six wellness’.
-Sees substantial opportunities for development in Central and South America, but also in Africa.
-Also looking for urban properties, even Manhattan.

[] Small Luxury Hotels, UK.
-Company, owned primarily by CEO Paul Kerr, sold to the owners of two of its resorts in Spain. Not yet officially announced, and new owners have not yet taken over operationally; they are currently looking for a CEO.
-Operations. Average room rate still not back to pre-crisis 2008 when it was US$400 (quoted in US$); this year about US$360. In 2005, business share from travel agencies was 75%; now 55%. YTD increase in mobile bookings 62%.
-It may add boats/yachts to its product offer.

[] Starwood, US.
-Its luxury division (brands Luxury Collection (sic), St Regis, W) due to open 18 hotels in 2015. Most in one year before this was 12.

[] Virtuoso, US.
-Turnover (gross booking value) expected to be US$14bn, +12.0%, this year.
-Has just added 16 travel agency members in Europe. (Members, of which it has 355, are only outbound travel agencies. Its partners of which there are 1700, are suppliers and include inbound travel agencies.)

Different reports on these topics are published in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-report, Foxtrots blog, Facebook-Travel-Business-Analyst. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.

 

4 December 2014
Some business news from the ILTM exhibition in Cannes, which closes today. Reports on product updates at some of these organisations due to be published next week.

[] Banyan Tree, Singapore.
-Plans to open 30 properties in next two years; currently it has 37.
-Launched Cassia this year as its third brand. BT launched 20 years ago; Angsana 12 years.
-First Cassia is due to be Phuket; five are confirmed. Will be a sort of time-share; BT does not use that term. The hotels’ units will be separately-owned and owners get 60 days accommodation.
-A fourth brand is due to be launched in 2015. It will be at a standard similar to Cassia.

[] Belmond, ex-Orient Express, UK.
-Due to add another train product, in Ireland, in 2015. This will be its 46th ‘product’ – primarily hotels but also cruises and trains.
-It has signed its first management contract – for the small Cadogan hotel in London. Currently closed for renovation, it is due to reopen in 2016.

[] Dorchester Collection, UK.
-Publicity/promotional activity have been reduced this year following boycotts after the group’s owner, the Sultan of Brunei, introduced the sharia-law system in his country. It is certain that DC’s revenue has fallen this year as a result.
-At its Plaza Athenee in Paris, added ballroom and 14 suites in adjacent buildings bought for this expansion.

[] Four Seasons, Canada.
-Moved its EAME regional office from Switzerland to Dubai.
-Launching private 52-seat B757 service in FS colours, with flat-bed seats, wifi etc. Jet not owned by FS; leased from Switzerland-based TAG Aviation through US-based tour operator TCS Expeditions (whose other B757s have 78 seats).
-First of five itineraries/year due February 2015. Because this will be well short of full utilisation, FS’s B757 is also available for charter.
-Openings in past few days/weeks - Orlando in Disneyland, Dubai, Johannesburg (reopening). Due soon - Bahrain Q1 2015, London (its third, in Trinity Square) 2016.

[] ILTM, France.
-Organisers hosted seven media for the exhibition when it started in 2002. They hosted 70 this year; Travel Business Analyst was not one.

[] Jumeirah, Dubai.
-Has doubled hotels since 2011; now 22, plus 17 in development.

[] Kyoto, Japan.
-Targets 3mn foreign visitors in 2020. It was 1.13mn in 2013; that would mean annual average growth of 15.0%, and thus the target is unlikely to be reached.

Different reports on these topics are published in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-report, Foxtrots blog, Facebook-Travel-Business-Analyst. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.

 

3 December 2014
-Aeroflot sold 2.9mn seats, +8.0% , in October .
-Airline share prices +14% in November. Source: IATA.
-Airline RPKs +5.7% in October. Source: IATA.
-Dubai airport handled 5.99mn passengers , +5.7%, in October.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) RPKs +5.9% in November .
-US visitor spend US$19.1bn, +7% , in September.

2 December 2014
‘TBA All-Travel Index’. The August index in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +1% over the same month in 2013. Previous month -4%.

1 December 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in November. Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +39%; slowest growth (no fall), Malaysia +4%. Hotels: InterContinental +14%, Wynn -6%. Others: TUI +13%, Orbitz -8%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Qantas +21%; biggest fall, SAS -11%. Hotels: Marriott +8%, Starwood -8%. Others: IILG +10%, Hertz -14%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 168, US 299, AsPac 92, Eur 114.  Index previous month: WW 157, US 285, AsPac 84, Eur 103.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

28 November 2014
-Europe. Visitors 413mn, +4.2%, Jan-Aug. Outbound trips +3% (no figure), for all-2014 (sic) +3% 2015. Source: IPKI/ITBB; inbound may be not-credited WTO figures as these are the same.
-US international air passenger traffic. 150.9mn, +7%, Jan-Sep.

27 November 2014
-Link to Foxtrots blog on Air France: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/11/27/air-france-bad-to-worse/

26 November 2014
ITB/IPK. A report in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains serious criticism of a report on ITB/IPK’s World Travel Monitor, and recommends readers to ignore the so-called findings.

25 November 2014
-Macau gambling receipts. US$46.1bn, +18.4%, in 2013.
-Ryanair seat sales. Forecasts 3.5m, +16.7%, December 20-January 6.
-Singapore airport passengers. 4.49mn, +1.9%, in October.
-US visitors. 8.4mn, +7%, in August.
-World Travel Market visits. 82,213, +5.4%.

24 November 2014
Airline groups. Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in September, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -17.4% for AF+KL, +11.4% BA+IB, +3.6% LH+LX+OS.

21 November 2014
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.66mn seats, +5.0%, in October.
-PATA. Included in its Annual Tourism Monitor: AsPac arrivals (which for PATA includes some distant destinations such as Chile) were 238mn, +5.2%, Jan-Jun.
-Thailand visitors 2.18mn, +6.1%, in October.

20 November 2014
-Easyjet sold 71.5mn seats, +5.1%, in its year through September.
-Trampolinn now has 12,000 members and 5000 products. Launched in March 2014 as an AirBnB-like operation in Europe – but with exchange accommodation, not paid.

19 November 2014
The August hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.9; AsPac 4.6; Europe -1.3; US 2.4. Previous month: 0.7; -0.7; 0.2; 2.5.

US updates:
-Travel agencies. US$78.1bn airline tickets sold, +4.5%; 126.3mn ticket transactions +2.5%; 317.2mn passenger segments +2.9% Jan-Oct. Source: ARC.
-Hotels. Occupancy 64.4% +3.7%, average room rate US$115.53 +4.6%, new forecasts for 2014. In 2015, 65.1% +1.1%, US$121.37 +5.0%. Source: STR, Tourism Economics.
-Citizen international outbound travel 6.8mn, +6%, in August. Source: US dept of commerce.

18 November 2014
-International air passengers: +2.3%; premium +2.3%, economy +2.3%; intra-Far East -1.6% (falls in Malaysia, Thailand); intra- Europe +2.3%; in September. Source: IATA.
-Russia outbound* -1% Jan-Aug, due mainly to -50% in travel to Ukraine (2nd-largest after Turkey); excluding Ukraine +10%. Total in 2013, 31.5mn; growth not given. Source: IPK/ITB Berlin.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

17 November 2014
-Index, travel stocks. The October ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 157; AsPac 84; Europe 103; US 285. (Base: Dec 06.)

-Outbound, Inbound. We estimate: outbound travel by AsPac nationals/residents (from our own data) 125.3mn, +9.5%, Jan-Jul; visitor arrivals (from WTO data) in AsPac totalled 171.9mn, +4.9%, Jan-Aug.

14 November 2014
Travel industry updates:
-Aeroflot. Sold 2.15mn seats, +9.4%, in September.
-Air Berlin. Sold 3.06mn seats, +1.5%, in October.
-Air France KLM. Sold 6.9mn seats, +2.1%, in October. Transavia 1.0mn +17.9%.
-Copenhagen airport. Handled 2.3mn passengers, +7.1%, in October.
-Easyjet. Sold 5.84mn seats, +5.5%, in October.
-Europe airports. Passengers handled +3.9% in September.
-Hotel-room pipeline. We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for October: World +17%, US +15%, AsPac +32%, Eur +5%.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling). RPKs were +7.5% in October.
-London Heathrow airport. Handled 6.32mn passengers, +0.4%, in October.
-World Travel Market 52,000 delegates +4% – registered buyers +7%, trade visitors +6%, international media +2% - November 3–6.

13 November 2014
Index. Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Sep +6E; Aug +4P; Jul +5.5; Jun +5.8; May +6.3; Apr +7.5; Mar +2.1; Feb +3.4; Jan +4.5. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates:
-Air Asia. Sold 10.7mn seats, +1%, Jul-Sep - AA India 0.13mn, no comparison as new division; AA Indonesia 1.8mn -10%; AA Malaysia 5.3mn +0%; AA Thailand 2.9mn +12%; AA Philippines 0.62mn -15%.
-American. RPKs were +0.2% in October.
-Baird/STR hotel stock index 3730, +3.6%, in October.
-Emirates. Sold 23.3mn seats, +8.4%, in Apr-Sep first half.
-Southwest. RPKs were +4.4% in October.
-United. RPKs were +0.4% in October.

12 November 2014
Air Asia. Its report for Q3 jumps over or ignores the bad news that we see in the latest traffic figures. These are the main ones, in order of damage:
-AA Malaysia, the core operation, seat sales were flat (+0.47%).
-AA Indonesia seat sales fell 10.1%.
-AA Philippines seat sales fell a shocking 15.4%. And its seat factor is at a dangerously-low 62.9%.
  For all AA divisions, Q3 growth was just 1.2%.  YTD growth, at +10.3%, still looks reasonable, even though this is half the rate in 2013.
  AA India’s first figures reported; no comparison of course. Its seat factor was a reasonable 76.3%, but we estimate that it needs to be at least 5-points higher.

Virgin Australia. Recently, VA changed again its manner of presenting data, although we can still make the adjustments to present a standardised view. With this, we can see that there are some measures indicating that all is not well at the company.
  Some comments on VA’s latest report:
-Growth in seat sales on domestic-Australia is bad, -1.9% in Q3 and +1.8% YTD.
-International growth in seat sales is weak (for a newish operator internationally), just +2.1% in Q3 and 6.3% YTD. That said, seat factor is good – 83%, 81%.
-Tiger Australia, now part of the VA group, is also weak. Q3 growth was +5.6% (on figures which are restated – although VA does not tell you that). That may look reasonable - but not for a relaunched no-frills-airline. YTD looks better, +8.0%, but we think it should be closer to 15%.

Malaysia Airlines. No relief in sight. September figures show a 12.9% fall in international seats sold although YTD is still 2.4% ahead. Surprisingly, domestic is almost as bad, down 11.8% in the latest month; normally this would be expected to recover sooner.

Thai Airways. It’s getting worse! September figures show a 23.4% fall in international seats sold and YTD -22.9%! Although we don’t have all the figures, the problem seems to be more domestic traffic than international. Some measures (RPKs) show -44.1% in September and -27.9% YTD. We expected a slight recovery around this time; these figures are bad.

11 November 2014
Index. Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Sep +6E; Aug +8P; Jul +6.3; Jun +4.9; May +8.4; Apr +7.7; Mar +4.4; Feb +5.6; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Aviation updates:
-SAS. Sold 2.7mn seats, +7.9%, in October.
-US air passenger traffic. 135.3mn, +7%, over Jan-Aug; Europe +5%, Asia +6%.

10 November 2014
-China outbound travel. We calculate growth 13.6% Jan-Aug, and almost the same, 13.9%, in August. Is this lower rate (for the past four years it has been +18-22%) the new reality?


-China inbound travel. The DMO is starting to provide deeper data. Summarising, the Jan-Sep visitor total shows a high non-leisure share – which we long suspected but could not see in the data. Although these might not be perfect separations, only 33.9% is defined as Leisure; 20.5% Business; 2.3% VFR. The rest includes crew and ‘workers’ (not otherwise defined), but then 30.7% ‘Others’. We presume that includes diplomatic visitors but perhaps also those travelling with official and semi-official delegations. All this makes the non-core categories (core are leisure, business, VFR) the biggest single share, with 43.3%. These categories are shown by country counts – but that leads to the other big caveat. The breakdowns are by passport, so many of those American, Australian, British, and other visitors, will actually be living in Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, etc. Caveat lector.


-India outbound travel. We have started a monthly estimate, as official data is slow to be published, and is usually produced annually. For Jan-Jun this shows 8.3mn, a 1.2% fall.


-Thailand inbound travel. Overall visitors -7.0% in September (although on official figures given in 2013, we calculate the fall to be -10.1% - perhaps the new government counts differently?). The two markets to watch – China -6.3% (still down; we thought it would start to pick up around now), Russia -19.7%. At Bangkok airport, where you can assume there are more business travellers, VFRs, others, it was worse – China -18.1%, Russia -34.2%! YTD that leaves the all-country total -10.3%, China -17.4%, Russia still up, +3.2%.

 

7 November 2014
Index. Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Sep +4E; Aug +4P; Jul +3.7; Jun +6.1; May +3.6; Apr +5.7; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.0; Jan +6.3. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

6 November 2014
-Copenhagen airport handled 19.7mn passengers, +7.1%, Jan-Sep.
-IATA member airline RPKs +5.3% in September.
-JAL Group international RPK +3.3%, domestic +1.2%, first-half Apr-Sep.
-Ryanair sold 51.3mn seats, +4%, first-half Apr-Sep; 8.4mn, +5%, in October.
-World Travel Market all-delegates +5%.

5 November 2014
-Singapore; what’s happening? Arrivals down 8.3% in the latest month, August, and -3.3% YTD. Actually, the main reason is China (14.6% of the total in 2013): -28.2% and -29.2%! Now, even outbound is falling: -3.5% in August, albeit still +4.1% YTD.
-Airline RPKs. IATA (International Air Transport Association) says RPKs were +5.3% in September – both international and domestic +5.3%; Asia Pacific +4.8%; Europe +3.9%; North America +2.1%; Australia +2.7%; Brazil +4.0%; China +8.6%; India +26.3%; Japan +2.0%; Russia +5.6%; US +5.3%.
-Tokyo airports. Poor Narita in deep trouble now authorities all Haneda to add more international flights. YTD (July) NRT is falling, while HND is +24%. Latest month is worse for NRT: -5.7% NRT, +41.0% HND!

4 November 2014
Index. Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Sep +5E; Aug +6P; Jul +5.2; Jun +5.0; May +6.1; Apr +7.0; Mar +2.4; Feb +5.4; Jan +6.9. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

3 November 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in October. Airlines: biggest growth, Qantas +21%; biggest fall, SAS -11%. Hotels: Marriott +8%, Starwood -8%. Others: IILG +10%, Hertz -14%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +13%; biggest fall, Air NZ -12%. Hotels: Jinjiang +7%, Belmond -9%. Others: TUI +7%, Avis Budget -19%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 157, US 285, AsPac 84, Eur 103.  Index previous month: WW 154, US 277, AsPac 83, Eur 103.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

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Current Issues...

Main contents in current issues of our newsletters and reports:

Travel Business Analyst, Asia Pacific: Travel stock prices, AsPac. Travel stock prices, Europe, US, world. Plus: Market Monitor; World Travel Industry Index; ZERO; Market Headlines; Market Outlook; and 20 regular tables of market data.


Travel Business Analyst, Europe: Travel stock prices, Europe. Travel stock prices, AsPac, US, world. Plus: Market Monitor; World Travel Industry Index; ZERO; Extracts from Net Value or People-in-Travel; Market Headlines; and 16 regular tables of market data.


Net Value: The year ahead; Trampolinn; Robotel; others.


People-in-Travel: Christoph Mueller; Arif Wibowo; Mario Hardy; others.


Foxtrots/Trottings (recent): Wrong –End-2014 comments (China’s Big-3, Qantas, Singapore Airlines group); Ryanair follows good advice.


ZERO (occasional): Clearer air; WTO - together we fail; Electric vehicles.

 

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