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Sources for information shown in this section are generally the companies or associations concerned, and may not be marked. Other sources marked. Travel Business Analyst is marked 'TBA'.

 

31 October 2014
Travel industry updates:
-London Heathrow airport. Handled 55.7mn passengers, +1.5%, Jan-Sep.
-TUI AG. Germany-based TUIAG takes over UK-based TUI Travel. TUIT shareholders get 0.399 new TUIAG shares in exchange for each TUIT share.

A report in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter charges the marketing strategy of European Cities Marketing as misguided, following ECM’s new report on hotel results.

30 October 2014
Travel industry updates:
-China outbound. TBA’s calculation for July, the latest month, shows travel has recovered slightly – +11.6% after growing only +6.9% the month earlier. YTD has been pulled down to +13.6%. All these are well down on the +18.7% for all-2013.
-Dubai airport. Handled 5.94mn passengers, +9.9%, in September.

29 October 2014
‘TBA All-Travel Index’. The June index in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at -4% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +2%.

A report on France in the Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains critical comment on the visitor arrivals business and the new businessplan for the state-owned rail company.

28 October 2014
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in August, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +1.8% for AF+KL, +11.1% BA+IB, +4.1% LH+LX+OS.

-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia, page 26, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10039126#/26

27 October 2014
Our calculation for July, the latest month, shows China outbound travel has recovered slightly – +11.6% after growing only +6.9% the month earlier. YTD has been pulled down to +13.6%. All these are well down on the +18.7% for all-2013.

-Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia, page 12, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10039126#/12

24 October 2014
US updates:
-Hotel occupancy was 70.3% +3.8%, average room rate US$117.91, +5.2%, in Q3.
-Visitors were 7.3mn, +5%, in July.
-Visitors spent US$19.2bn, +6%, in August.

23 October 2014
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.49mn seats, +4.6%, in September.
-Compagnie des Alpes sales were US$877mn, +2.2% - ski US$492mn -1.3%, leisure US$378mn +6.3% - in its year through September. CDA has 36 sites; best-known are Val d’Isere, Parc Asterix, Futuroscope.
A full report on this topic in the November issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

22 October 2014
-The US department of commerce forecasts: 73.9mn visitors, +5.9%, in 2014; 88.3mn visitors in 2019, after an annual average growth of +4.0% over 2014-19.
-US hotel occupancy 65.7% +3.9%, average room rate US$117.17 +5.3%, in September. Source: STR.

An advance summary of the Global Trends Report 2014 by Euromonitor for next month’s World Travel Market – which contains some puzzling comments - is strongly criticised in the Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter.

21 October 2014
-We estimate* there are currently 1.34mn hotel rooms, +20%, in the construction pipeline worldwide. *Extrapolations on STR data.
-US nationals overseas outbound (excluding to Canada, Mexico) 3.3mn, +8%, in July; Europe 1.4mn +6%, Asia 398k +9%.

20 October 2014
Our YTD through June calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +5.4% (all airports +5.9%). Last month: +3.5% (+4.5%).

A review of two new reports* on the China outbound market in the Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter says they leave much to be desired. (*From Hotels.com and Timetric.)

17 October 2014
The July hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 0.7; AsPac -0.7; Europe 0.2; US 2.5. Previous month: 2.1; 1.2; 3.3; 1.8.

16 October 2014
-Copenhagen airport handled 2.3mn passengers, +6.4%, in September.
-Etihad* sold 3.9mn seats, +30.0%, in Q3.
* A full report on this topic in the current issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.
-Frankfurt airport handled 5.9mn passengers, +5.9%, in September.
-London Heathrow airport handled 6.58mn passengers, +0.3%, in September.
-US international air passengers were 115.7mn, +7%, Jan-Jul.
-US travel agencies sold US$70.6bn of air tickets, +4.8%, in September.

A report entitled ‘Points on Pricing’ in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some critical observations on the CWT report, ‘Global Travel Price Outlook, 2015’.

15 October 2014
The September ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 154; AsPac 83; Europe 103; US 277. (Base: Dec 06.)

14 October 2014
AirBnB in New York:
-Economic impact US$632mn over one year. And US$104mn in economic activity outside Manhattan. This does seem to match the comment below – that 82% of ABB’s properties are outside the main hotel areas.
-Hosts. 87% share only the home they live in, and take US$7530/year from ABB. 62% said they use ABB income to help afford staying their homes; see note on this for Barcelona. 50% are freelancers, part-time workers, students.
-Guests. Paid US$31mn in sales taxes while visiting. Length-of-stay averages 6.4 nights, compared to 3.9 for hotel guests. They spend US$880 “at New York businesses” compared to US$690 for the average visitor, twice as much – but the daily difference is the other way round; US$138 daily for ABB, US$177 for all visitors. 82% of properties are outside the main hotel areas, and the ABB guest spends an average US$740 in the neighbourhood where they stay.

13 October 2014
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Aug +4E; Jul +5P; Jun +5.8; May +6.3; Apr +7.5; Mar +2.1; Feb +3.4; Jan +4.5. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7; Sep +2.0. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

A report entitled ‘Russia Wronged’ in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some critical comment on the ITB Berlin report, ‘Russia’s Outbound Trends’.

10 October 2014
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Aug +8E; Jul +7P; Jun +4.9; May +8.4; Apr +7.7; Mar +4.4; Feb +5.6; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9; Sep +8.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

A full report entitled ‘Amadeus Misreads The Future’ in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some critical observations on the Amadeus report, ‘Shaping the Future of Travel’.

9 October 2014
-Air Berlin sold 3.38mn seats, +2.1%, in September.
-Air France-KLM sold 5.7mn seats, -16.3%, in September.
-ACI says passengers handled at airports in Europe was +7.0% in August.
-American RPKs were -0.2% in September.
-Easyjet sold 6.14mn seats, +7.5%, in September.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs were +8.5% in September.
-IATA says member airlines RPKs were +5.9% - international +6.7%, domestic +4.5% - in August.
-Ryanair sold 8.5mn seats, +5%, in September.
-SAS sold 2.7mn seats, +7.3%, in September.
-Southwest RPKs were +5.1% in September.
-United RPKs were -0.2% in September.

8 October 2014
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Aug +5E; Jul +4P; Jun +6.1; May +3.6; Apr +5.7; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.0; Jan +6.3. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5; Sep +4.0. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

7 October 2014
-US nationals outbound outside North America 3.6mn, +7%, in June.
-Singapore airport handled 4.65mn passengers, -0.6%, in August.
-Aeroflot sold 2.37mn seats, +11.7%, in August.

6 October 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Aug +6E; Jul +5P; Jun +5.3; May +6.4; Apr +7.2; Mar +2.4; Feb +5.4; Jan +6.9. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3; Sep +4.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

3 October 2014
An Amadeus study forecasts:
-‘Global travel’ (understood to be essentially visitor arrivals) will grow 5.4%/year over the next 10-years, 2% faster than the world’s annual GDP growth.
-China’s share of outbound travel forecast to be 20% by 2023.
-China will pass the US to become the world’s largest outbound travel market this year and the largest domestic market by 2017. Our data shows China overtook Germany to become largest in 2013 (overtaking the US two years earlier) in terms of trips, and overtaking US in outbound spend in 2013. (Amadeus does not clarify its figures.)
-‘Other large emerging markets, such as Russia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey’ will each also average 5%-plus annual growth over the next 10 years. This is misleading. India is not a large market, and neither is Indonesia – smaller than its tiny neighbour Singapore, for instance.
-‘Western shorthaul business travel’ will reach pre-2008 in 2018.
-Asia will account for 55% of global business travel growth in the next 10 years.

2 October 2014
-Baird/STR hotel stock index 3601, -2.4%, in September.
-IATA says RPKs were +5.9% in August – international +6.7%, domestic +4.5%.
-Visitor arrivals in US 6.0mn, +9%, in June.

A full report entitled Sky Slammer in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some critical observations on the Skyscanner report entitled Future of Travel 2024.

1 October 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in September. Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +13%; biggest fall, Air NZ -12%. Hotels: Jinjiang +7%, Belmond -9%. Others: TUI +7%, Avis Budget -19%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Southwest +20%; biggest fall, SAS -11%. Hotels: Marriott +7%, InterContinental -4%. Others: China Tvl +32%, Kuoni -12%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 154, US 277, AsPac 83, Eur 103.  Index previous month: WW 159, US 294, AsPac 83, Eur 100.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

30 September 2014
US updates:
-International air passengers 96.1mn, +7%, Jan-Jun.
-Visitors 6.0mn, +9%, in June.

29 September 2014
Market notes from GBTA (Global Business Travel Association) about BT (business travel):
-World BT, now growing at about 4%, will go up to around 6% over the next few years.
-In BT per capita, top is Norway, second Austria.
-In 2017 AsPac will be spending almost US$1 out of every US$2 spend on BT worldwide.
-In BT, India is about 10 years behind China. India was growing slightly faster than China before India’s recent economic slowdown.
-GBTA thought China would become top BT market in 2014, but now it thinks that will happen in 2016.

26 September 2014
The May ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at 2% over the same month in 2013. Previous month -1%.

25 September 2014
Hotels.com reports that visitors in France from the Middle East (no further definition) pay the most on its site for hotel rooms per night – US$262 (at US$1 to €0.77) +9% - the US US$214 +2% , Mexico US$209 +5% , Brazil US$203 -5%, China US$201 -3%. From Europe, Norway US$199 +0%, Iceland US$183 +11%, Russia US$182.
*A full report on this topic in the October issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

24 September 2014
-Dubai airport handled 6.6mn passengers, +10.8%, in August.
-We estimate no-frills-airline Scoot is selling at least 2mn seats annually. (It does not publish this information.) Its Malaysia-based rival, Air Asia X, sold 3.2mn for all-2013.
*A full report on this topic in the October issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

23 September 2014
Hotels.com report on travellers from China:
-97% travel for leisure, 50% for business. (Recipients could give more than one reply.) Hoteliers say 22% combine business and leisure.
-67% make their own arrangements.
-54% travel with their partner and children as companions.
-They travel on vacation for 1-2 weeks, leisure (listed separately) 1.4 weeks, visiting friends or relatives 1.6 weeks.
-59% stay in 3/4-star hotels.
*A full report on this topic in the October issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

22 September 2014
Priceline has become the world’s largest OTA (online travel agency) – just. Its US$25.8bn half-year gross bookings compares with Expedia’s US$25.7bn! Priceline grew at 34%, Expedia at 29%. Expedia is much bigger in the US (4-times), so Priceline bigger outside (2-times).
*A full report on this topic in the October issue of the Net Value report contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

19 September 2014
The June hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 2.1; AsPac 1.2; Europe 3.3; US 1.8. Previous month: 2.5; 2.1; 2.3; 3.0.

18September 2014
Visitor arrivals were 517mn, +4.6%, in the first half, according to the World Tourism Organization. Some details:
-This is slower than annual average 5% since 2010.
-Americas +6%, Asia Pacific +5%, Europe +5%.
-North America +6%, Northeast Asia +7%, South Asia +8%, Northern Europe +8%, Southern Mediterranean +8%.
-WTO forecasts 4.0-4.5% for all-2014, above its average annual +3.8% forecast for 2010-20.

17 September 2014
The August ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 159; AsPac 83; Europe 100; US 294. (Base: Dec 06.)

16 September 2014
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.85mn seats, +3.6%, in August.
-London Heathrow airport handled 7.05mn passengers, +1.3%, in August.
-US nationals outbound travel was 5.9mn, +15%, in May.
-ARC says US travel agencies sold US$7.1bn worth of airline tickets, +1.0%, in August.

15 September 2014
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jul +4E; Jun +4P; May +3.2; Apr +3.9; Mar +1.9; Feb +3.1; Jan +3.8. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7; Sep +2.0; Aug +2.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

12 September 2014
We calculate hotel-room pipeline from Smith Travel Research data for August: World +21%, US +14%, AsPac +32%, Eur +6%.

11 September 2014
-Air Berlin sold 3.47mn seats, +2.7%, in August.
-Copenhagen airport handled 2.44mn passengers, +7.0%, in August.
-Easyjet sold 6.61mn seats, +8.4%, in August.
-Frankfurt airport handled 6.1mn passengers, +5.4%, in August.
-SAS sold 2.6mn seats, +9.1%, in August.
-United RPKs were +0.1% in August.
-Southwest RPKs were +4.9% in August.
-Airport passengers in Europe were +4.6% in July. Source: ACI.
-Air France-KLM sold 7.3mn seats, +2.1%, in August. Its Transavia France 1.3mn +11.3%.
-US: Q1 traveller spending -11.2%; international air passengers to/from US 77.9mn Jan-May, +7% (Europe 20.3mn +5.6%, Asia 11.7mn +4.9%).

10 September 2014
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jul +7E; Jun +6P; May +8.3; Apr +7.7; Mar +4.4; Feb +5.6; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9; Sep +8.1; Aug +7.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

8 September 2014
Paris claims it is the world’s leading visitor city-destination, with 32.3mn arrivals in 2013, of which 15.5mn were international.
  But its claim may be based on measures other than those counts, because nearby London counted around 35mn total – of which 16.7mn were international. And New York counts over 53mn, albeit only 11mn international.
  And in terms of bednights, European Cities Marketing (of which both London and Paris are members) puts London at 51mn compared with 35mn for Paris.

8 September 2014
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jul +4E; Jun +6P; May +4.0; Apr +5.5; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.0; Jan +6.4. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5; Sep +4.0; Aug +6.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

5 September 2014
-Member airlines of AEA (Association of European Airlines) sold 176mn seats, +3.3%, Jan-Jun.
-Aeroflot sold 2.35mn seats, +11.8%, in July. And 13.31mn, +14.3%, YTD.
-Dubai airport passengers 5.16mn, -2.9%, in July.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) RPKs were +8.7% in August.
-Member airlines of IATA (International Air Transport Association) RPKs were +5.3% (international +5.5%, domestic +4.9%) in July. Domestic Russia +9.9% (IATA does not say, but partly because Crimea now designated domestic, not international), India +6.0%, Japan +4.6%, US +3.9%, Australia -1.6%, Brazil 0.7%.
-Ryanair sold 9.4mn seats, +4%, in August.
-US nationals outbound travellers 5.2mn +17% in April, 19.4mn +10% YTD.

4 September 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jul +5E; Jun +5P; May +5.6; Apr +6.2; Mar +2.6; Feb +5.0; Jan +6.4. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3; Sep +4.7; Aug +5.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia, page 6, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10038248#/6

3 September 2014
-Passenger totals through Kuala Lumpur airport appear to reflect MAF (Malaysia Airlines Factor – loss of one flight, shooting down of another). Monthly passengers this year were +20.5% +14.2% +7.1% in Q1, then +10.1% (boosted by change in Easter holiday month) +3.5% +1.7% in Q2.

 

-Some interesting indicators from the latest US outbound travel data. Viz:
-The fast economic growth seems to be causing growth in travel. Total +10% YTD - and +17% in April, the latest month! Time to dust-off those Marketing-to-the-US plans.
-Most of that is still NAm (Canada, Mexico), and most of that is still to Mexico, but +27% in April! For a destination that takes just over half the big total, that is impressive.
-So-called ‘overseas destinations’ also did well: +5% YTD and 10% in April. Europe (the biggest of the ‘overseas’) +7% in April, Asia +8%.
Source: US DMO.

 

-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia, page 26, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10038248#/26

 

2 September 2014
China outbound. We calculate China outbound growth only 14% in the first half, and half that growth rate in June!

Thailand inbound. Some interesting indicators from Thailand’s latest arrivals data. Viz:
-Russia holding up well, despite Russia’s official restrictions on some types of international travel. We suspect this is because a good share of the visitors comes from eastern Russia, and they follow less carefully edicts from Moscow. July only -11% (but YTD still positive, +7%).
-China getting worse (-25% July, -21% YTD).
-Europe/longhaul less bothered about coup than Asia? (Europe +4% YTD, Asia -13%, Oceania -4%).

1 September 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in August. Airlines: biggest growth, Southwest +20%; biggest fall, SAS -11%. Hotels: Marriott +7%, InterContinental -4%. Others: China Tvl +32%, Kuoni -12%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, United +13%; biggest fall, Lufthansa -16%. Hotels: Jinjiang +18%, Belmond -15%. Others: China Tvl +22%, TUI -12%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 159, US 294, AsPac 83, Eur 100.  Index previous month: WW 153, US 277, AsPac 85, Eur 98.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

29 August 2014
Global Business Travel Association about business travel:
-Global BT, now growing at about 4%, will go up to around 6% over the next few years.
-In BT per capita, top is Norway, second Austria.
-In 2017 AsPac will be spending almost US$1 out of every US$2 spend on BT worldwide.
-GBTA thought China would become top BT market in 2014, but now it thinks that will happen in 2016.

28 August 2014
Forecasts:
-The US Federal Aviation Administration forecasts US airlines RPKs will grow 76% over 2013-34 which means +2.8%/year. Seat sales will increase 0.8% from 2013 to 745.5mn in 2014 and 1.15bn in 2034.
-The Pacific Asia Travel Association forecasts visitor arrivals will grow at an average annual rate of 6% over 2013-18.
-CLSA, a finance company, forecasts China outbound will double to 200mn trips by 2020, and spend will increase three-times.
-The US department of commerce forecasts visitor arrivals will grow at an average annual rate of 3.4-4.1% over 2014-18 to get 83.8mn visitors, +20% over 2013.

27 August 2014
Soundbites from Deep Kalra, Group CEO, Make My Trip.
-The big move for us over past two years is how we moved from air and hotel to all travel. Now 46% non-air income; we aim for more than 50%.
-The other move has been to mobile. About 12% of air and hotel bookings.
-US-India is about 10% of our business.
-We are India’s largest online travel company after the railways. We have 10mn visitors, seeing 100mn pages.
-Conversion is the key. Because we do not control the dollar amount because that comes from suppliers.
-Biggest gain is personalisation. If customers register they can get more.
-We have done five M&As. The latest is HotelTravel.com, purely hotels; it has 100k.

26 August 2014
–Carlson Wagonlit Travel transactions were 32.5mn, +2.7%, sales US$14.4bn, +4.2% Jan-Jun.
-Singapore airport handled 4.58mn passengers, +1.0%, in July.
-US international air passengers 61.0mn, +6%, Jan-Apr.

25 August 2014
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in June, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +2.5% for AF+KL, +9.4% BA+IB, +1.4% LH+LX+OS.

22 August 2014
-ARC says the value of airline tickets sold by US-based travel agencies was US$7.5bn +5.2% in July, US$56bn +5.15% Jan-Jul.
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.79mn seats, +4.2%, in July.
-IATA notes: international seats sold +2.4% in June, +3.7% Jan-Jun; premium seat sales +1.8%, economy +2.5% in June.
-The JAL Group sold 273,396 international seats, +1.4%, over its summer peak, August 8-17.
-US nationals international outbound was 6.5mn, +4%, in March (to Europe 1.9mn +2% 13% share, Asia 1.1mn +2% 8%, Oceania 174k +7% 1%).

21 August 2014
The May hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 2.5; AsPac 2.1; Europe 2.3; US 3.0. Previous month: 0.3; 1.3; -2.4; 1.9.

20 August 2014
The June ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 155; AsPac 82; Europe 105; US 278. (Base: Dec 06.)

19 August 2014
Our research indicates bad news for Egypt’s hotel business is getting worse. Over H1 in 2014, occupancy fell a big 29%, see table, meaning an almost-50% fall since 2010.
 (The Arab Spring started in December 2010, and January 2011 in Egypt.)
  In 2013, occupancy increased, meaning these new results wipe out the gain in 2013.
  There was growth in average room rate, of 8% and 16% since 2010. However, this will not make up for the fall in occupancy.

Hotel results in Egypt, Jan-Jun


Item

2014

2013

2012

Occupancy,%

29.9

42.2

38.1

  Growth over prev yr,%

-29.1

10.7

NA

  Growth over 2010,%

-49.0

-28.0

-35.0

ARR,US$*

61.3

56.8

52.2

  Growth over prev yr,%

7.9

9.0

NA

  Growth over 2010,%

15.8

7.3

-1.5

Notes: *ARR = average room rate, at US$1 to E£7.15. Source: Travel Business Analyst.

18 August 2014
France No 1? Yes, No, No.
The presentation of France’s visitor figures is suspicious. Part of the reason is that the sources of arrivals from the Schengen countries in Europe are not registered. Therefore, the figures must be estimates - but the authorities never say that.
  In addition, this year – but not for the first time - the authorities have shown '0.0%' movement for three months running. We are fairly confident in saying, without evidence, that that cannot have happened.
  France's share of the world visitor total has been falling - from 11.4% in 2000 to 7.7% in 2013. And share of Europe’s from 19.9% to 14.9%.
  A measure better than simple visitor arrivals is visitor spend. And here France is third - the US is 2.5-times bigger, and Spain about 10% bigger. France's share of the world visitor spend has fallen from 6.9% in 2000 to 4.8% in 2013. And of Europe’s from 14.2% to 11.5%.
  Another measure is air traffic. Measures are not simple but in terms of seats sold, France is about 13th, and below markets such as Australia, Indonesia, Ireland, and, for instance, about 10x smaller than the US.
  A minister responsible in France has set a 100mn target for visitor arrivals. But this is meaningless because he gave no date to achieve it. But at present growth rates it would take about 15 years to reach - 2030.
  The visitor business in France is in trouble, and the government cannot see it - or does not want to see it.

15 August 2014
-Air Asia group sold 11.3mn seats, +13.0%, Apr-Jun. Air Asia X sold 1.02mn seats, +46.3%, Apr-Jun.
-Air France-KLM sold 7.5mn seats, +1.3%, in July. Its Transavia no-frills-airline 1.2mn +5.4%.
-Airports Council International says passengers in Europe airports were +5.5% Jan-Jun; no figures given.
-Easyjet sold 6.43mn seats, +7.7%, in July.
-Frankfurt airport handled 5.9mn passengers, +2.3%, in July.
-STR has increased its forecast for US hotels occupancy to 63.8%, +2.6%, average room rate US$115.02, +4.2%, in 2014.
-Baird/STR hotel stock index was 3501, -1.1%, in July.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs were +7.1% in July.
-London Heathrow handled 6.97mn passengers, +0.5%, in July.
-Ryanair sold 9.15mn seats, +3.5%, in July.
-Southwest Airlines RPKs were +6.6% in July.
-Swiss sold 7.74mn seats, -0.5%, Jan-Jun.
-United Airlines RPKs were +1.0% in July.
-US international air passengers 44.8mn +5% in Q1; overseas 32.9mn +5% (Europe 10.3mn +3.4%, Asia 7.0mn +4.0%, Oceania 1.0mn +3.8%); New York JFK airport 5.8mn +3.6%, Miami 5.1mn +2.1%, Los Angeles 4.4mn +9.1%.

14 August 2014
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jun +4E; May +3P; Apr +3.2; Mar +1.6; Feb +3.1; Jan +3.8. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7; Sep +2.0; Aug +2.6; Jul +2.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

13 August 2014
From World Air Transport Statistics from IATA (International Air Transport Association) on 2013 showing largest:
-Region. Asia-Pacific 1.012bn seats sold +9.3%, Europe 825.9mn +3.4%, North America 818.9mn +0.7%.
-Within region: AsPac - China 404.2mn +11.8%; Europe – UK 177.9mn +3.7%; North America – US 618.1mn +3.3%.
-Airline - Delta 120.6mn seats sold (no comparison given), Southwest 115.3mn, China Southern 91.5mn.
-City pairs: Hong Kong-Taipei 4.9mn -11.5%, Dublin-London 3.6mn +6.9%, Jakarta-Singapore 3.4mn +8.6%.
-Domestic city pairs: Jeju-Seoul 9.58mn +1.4%, Sapporo-Tokyo 9.17mn +4.7%, Fukuoka-Tokyo 8.34mn +9.3%.
-Alliance. Star 26.6% share of RPKs, Sky 20.1%, One 15.4%.
-Others: 1100 more airport-pairs, now 50,000; 600,000 more flights, now 31.5mn; air travel prices -7.4%; 2% of fossil fuels burned, or 12% of fossil fuels burned by all transportation.

12 August 2014
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jun +7E; May +8P; Apr +7.7; Mar +4.4; Feb +5.6; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9; Sep +8.1; Aug +7.8; Jul +4.2. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

11 August 2014
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jun +4E; May +4P; Apr +5.5; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.0; Jan +6.4. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5; Sep +4.0; Aug +6.1; Jul +1.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

8 August 2014
Aviation updates:
-IATA (International Air Transport Association) member airline RPKs were +4.7% in June. International +5.5% (Europe +5.6%, Asia Pacific +4.9%, North America +3.1%), Domestic +3.4% (Australia +2.4%. China +6.6%, India +4.2%, Japan +4.1%, Russia, +12.0%, US +2.0%). And +5.9% International, +6.4% Domestic +5.1% Jan-Jun.
-The JAL Group showed 257,418 international seats sold, +0.7%, for the peak summer, August 8-17 this year. And 954,896 domestic, +1.5%.
-SAS sold 2.4mn seats in July, + 10.6%.

7 August 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jun +5E; May +5P; Apr +5.9; Mar +2.5; Feb +5.0; Jan +6.4. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3; Sep +4.7; Aug +5.7; Jul +2.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

6 August 2014
Research from PhoCusWright, the travel research company:
-Expects by 2015, 48% of France’s leisure and unmanaged business travel will be booked online.
-Says 44% of US leisure travellers own a tablet, and an additional 40% (we presume of those who do not) plan to buy one this year.
  PCW puts smartphone penetration at 75%, adding what our Net Value has been saying for 12 months – than the measure of booking device used has become of less value, because travellers might use more than one.
  In a similar way, time spent ‘online’ is also a redundant measure – because most are ‘online’ constantly, and ‘access’ sites or activity as required.
-Forecasts mobile travel bookings will triple over the next two years, to reach US$39.5mn by 2015. That would be 25% of the US online travel market in 2015; it was 2% in 2011.
-Forecasts that European tour operator online bookings will be US$14.0bn (at US$1 to €0.72) in 2015. It called that “modest growth”, but at 4.7% average in both years, this is well below normal growth rates in this sector.
-Forecasts mobile travel bookings in China, India, Japan will grow an average annual 59.6% from US$4.6bn in 2012 to US$18.7bn in 2015.
  China's mobile gross bookings will be US$6.4bn in 2015, representing 21% of the country's online travel market. In India, where smartphone penetration is among the lowest in the region, PCW forecasts 10% of online travel bookings will be booked via mobile by 2015.

* A full report on these topics in the current issue of the Net Value monthly-report contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

 

5 August 2014
Tiger Air gives tigers a bad name
Yesterday, we suggested that the Scoot airline should be shut down and folded into Tiger Airways – both part, at different levels, of the Singapore Airlines group (SIAG).
  That suggestion might have left the impression that Tiger is strong and Scoot is weak. We meant no more than that the two should be merged.
  Tiger has actually been a disastrous business. Over the past four years, there has been:
-near shutdown following numerous flight delays, cancellations, etc;
-shutdown for about six weeks of its Australian division by the authorities for safety reasons;
-start and shutdown of its Indonesia division within a year;
-sale of its Philippines division to its competitor Cebu Pacific. Really!
-sale of its Australia division to Virgin Australia, competitor to its associate airline, SIA. Really!
-change of name (presumably to hide the negative image) from Tiger Airways to Tigerair, and downplaying the ‘tiger’ name. Really!
  Such stunning continuing incompetence must be rare in aviation.
  It is time that Singapore Airlines moved in. Having said that, SIAG’s business skills have not been obvious of late, as though it does not know how to handle the new realities of the airline business.

4 August 2014
Singapore Airlines in trouble
One quarter’s (bad) results would not really warrant a change in strategy. But two?
  Singapore Airlines (SIA) should at least take a good look at what it is doing – corporately-speaking – and see if there is a need to make changes. Total revenue was down in the last two Qs – a bad sign. By -1.0% Jan-Mar and -4.1% Apr-Jun. And operating loss grew 36.4% Jan-Mar and operating profit fell 51.7% Apr-Jun.
  For us, the changes needed were included in a special report on the SIA group in the December 2013 issue of our Travel Business Analyst newsletter. In essence, the SIA group needs to:
-Shut down Scoot, and merge its operations into Tiger.
-Increase its ownership in Tiger, to at least 51%, and rationalise aircraft fleet (such as Scoot’s too-big ex-SIA B777s).
-Expand Silk into an LCA*, which means operating on some medium- and long-haul routes, sometimes in competition with SIA. (It might even be able to take on some of Scoot’s B777s – although we think they are probably too big for most routes, at least to begin with.)
  Not mentioned in the analyses of SIA recent results is the damage that we see Emirates doing to SIA’s business, and even its business model – which, ironically, Emirates copied.
  Plus the fact that total traffic into SIA’s main point in Europe, the UK, is falling. In fact, that may be a statistical quirk. Because, say, an Emirates passenger flying London-Dubai and then connecting for Dubai-Singapore (or wherever), would not show up in statistics as a UK-Singapore passenger, but UK-Dubai.
  Is SIA management strong enough to make such important decisions? There are not good signs. With its Virgin Atlantic 49% share, for instance, we had been saying for seven years that the alliance was not working. SIA management was in denial for another five years before admitting they wanted to sell.
  And note also that SIA did not give a presentation this year on its Apr-Jun results – which usually specifically shows what is up and down, and by what percentage. It produced just an SGX announcement and a news release. Hold your head down when you have done something wrong?
*LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline.) An full-service-airline but with lower operating costs (cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for instance), fewer fare types, which may have first and business cabins, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc.) Usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.)

1 August 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in July. Airlines: biggest growth, United +13%; biggest fall, Lufthansa -16%. Hotels: Jinjiang +18%, Belmond -15%. Others: China Tvl +22%, TUI -12%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Malaysia +14%; biggest fall, Lufthansa -19%. Hotels: Belmond +10%, Melia -4%. Others: Orbitz +20%, Thomas Cook -18%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 153, US 277, AsPac 85, Eur 98.  Index previous month: WW 155, US 278, AsPac 82, Eur 105.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

31 July 2014
Aviation updates:
-Aeroflot sold 2.13mn seats, +10.9% in June, and 11.0mn +14.9% Jan-Jun.
-The Aeroflot Group sold 3.37mn seats, +9.5%, in June, and 15.7mn +10.8% Jan-Jun. The group’s no-frills-airline, Dobrolet, sold 19.1k seats at 83.1% seat factor, in its first month, Jun.
-London Heathrow airport handled 35.1mn passengers, +1.9%, Jan-Jun.
*A full report on some half-year results in the September issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

30 July 2014
Aviation updates:
-AF-KLM RPKs were +2.8% Apr-Jun, and +2.5% Jan-Jun. Its hybrid subsidiary Transavia RPKs were +6.0% Apr-Jun, and +6.9% Jan-Jun.
-Easyjet sold 17.9mn seats, +9.4%, Jan-Jun.
-JAL Group international RPKs were +5.1%, domestic +2.2%, Apr-Jun.
-Ryanair sold 24.3mn seats, +4.6%, Apr-Jun.
*A full report on some half-year results in the September issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

29 July 2014
The March ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at -1% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +4%.

28 July 2014
Airport updates for June:
-Dubai handled 5.07mn passengers, -8.5%, and 34.7mn +6.2% Jan-Jun.
-Singapore handled 4.65mn passengers, -0.3%, and 26.6mn +1.4% Jan-Jun.

-Link to Foxtrots blog on Adrian Zecha, Aman Resorts: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/07/28/aman-zecha-part-2/

25 July 2014
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in May, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -1.4% for AF+KL, +8.3% BA+IB, +2.8% LH+LX+OS.

24 July 2014
It is not working for Macau. We have said this before, but all those new hotel rooms, meetings facilities, exhibitions, conferences, etc, are not pulling in visitors from markets other than gamblers from China. Half-year data shows total +8%, but it’s all China - +15%. Even Hong Kong was -6%, and non-CN/HK -1%.

23 July 2014
Our YTD through March calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +0.8% (all airports +2.2%). Last month: +6.8% (+5.2%).

22 July 2014
Update from WTO (World Tourism Organization):
-Total: Jan-Apr arrivals +5%.
-Continent: Americas +6%, Asia Pacific +6%, Europe +5%.
-Sub region: Northern Europe +8%, Southern/Mediterranean Europe +8%, Northeast Asia (+7%), South Asia +8%. (Southeast Asia not shown.)
-Summer-peak forecast (May-Aug) +8%.
-Full year forecast +4-4.5%, well above WTO’s +3.8% forecast for 2010-20.
* A full report on this topic in the August issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

21 July 2014
The April hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 0.3; AsPac 1.3; Europe -2.4; US 1.9. Previous month: 2.9; -1.4; 4.6; 1.6.

18 July 2014
Travel industry updates in June:
-The Baird/STR hotel stock index was +2.6%, and +11.4% Jan-Jun.
-Frankfurt airport handled 5.6mn passengers +3.3%, and 27.8mn +2.4% Jan-Jun.
-London Heathrow handled 6.6mn passengers, +1.1%.
-Cathay Pacific (and Dragonair) sold 2.61mn seats, +5.1%.

17 July 2014
ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) forecasts world scheduled air passenger traffic* will grow 6.0% this year, after +5.5% in 2013.
  Asia Pacific + 7.2% this year, Europe +5.4%, North America +2.7%.
* A full report on this topic in the August issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

16 July 2014
The May ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 158; AsPac 83; Europe 113; US 279. (Base: Dec 06.)

15 July 2014
-Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Apr +3E; Mar +2P; Feb +2.2; Jan +3.8. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7; Sep +2.0; Aug +2.6; Jul +2.7; Jun +2.7; May +2.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

-Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10037807#/10

14 July 2014
-According to new Smith Travel Research data (on which we may have made additional calculations), the number of hotel rooms being planned is +12% in the US, +10% in Europe - and +30% in Asia Pacific!

-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10037807#/26

11 July 2014
US updates:
-Outbound travel to overseas destinations (excluding Canada, Mexico) 3.9mn, +5%, in February - Europe 1.07mn +3%, Asia 689k +3%, Oceania 114k +5%.
-Visitor arrivals 5.8mn, -0.8%, in March. From overseas 2.3mn, -8.0%.

10 July 2014
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Apr +7E; Mar +6P; Feb +5.7; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9; Sep +8.1; Aug +7.8; Jul +4.2; Jun +6.0; May +4.0. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

9 July 2014
Aviation updates:
-American RPKs were +1.0% in June.
-Etihad sold 6.7mn seats, +22%, Jan-Jun.
-Airports in Europe handled +4.8% passengers in May.
-IATA (International Air Transport Association) airline member RPKs were +6.2% in May.
-Southwest RPKs were +2.2% in June.
-United RPKs were flat in June.

8 July 2014
Europe airline updates:
-Air Berlin sold 3.25mn seats, flat, in June.
-Air France-KLM sold 7.2mn seats, +3.9%, in June; its Transavia subsidiary 1mn, +7.6%.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs were +5.9% in June.
-Lufthansa Group (mainly Austrian, Lufthansa, Swiss) sold 50mn seats, +0.8%, Jan-Jun; Lufthansa (with Germanwings) 36.3mn, +1.0%.
-Ryanair sold 8.3m seats, +5%, in June.
-SAS sold 2.7mn seats, +12.4%, in June.

7 July 2014
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Apr +5E; Mar +2P; Feb +5.1; Jan +6.3. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5; Sep +4.0; Aug +6.1; Jul +1.1; Jun +5.0; May +4.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

4 July 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Apr +5E; Mar +3P; Feb +4.8; Jan +6.4. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3; Sep +4.7; Aug +5.7; Jul +2.6; Jun +4.8; May +4.0. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

3 July 2014
Forecast 2014 arrivals in Asean destinations, mn: Brunei┼ 0.24, +3.1%; Cambodia 4.50, +7.1%; Indonesia 9.20, +5.7%; Laos 4.00, +5.4%; Malaysia 28.0, +7.7%; Myanmar 3.00, +50.0%; Philippines 6.80, +3.9%; Singapore 16.9E, +7.5%E; Thailand 28.0, +7.7%; Vietnam 8.30, +9.6%; All-Asean* 109.0, +9.8%.
Notes: Some forecasts are growth, others a number; we have calculated the other figure. E = estimate. ┼Some figures may include cruise passengers; statements not always categorical. Source: DMOs, *Travel Business Analyst.
 A full report on this topic in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

2 July 2014
Aviation updates in May:
-Aeroflot sold 1.9mn seats, +13.7%.
-RPKs of member airlines of IATA (International Air Transport Association) were +6.2%. International +l7.0%, domestic +4.6% - Australia +5.2%, China +9.4%, India +4.1%, Japan +3.7%, Russia +13.2%, US +2.6%.
-Singapore airport handled 4.37mn passengers, +2.0%.

1 July 2014
-Link to Foxtrots blog on Adrian Zecha, Aman Resorts: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/07/01/adrian-zecha-aman-resorts/

Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in June. Airlines: biggest growth, Malaysia +14%; biggest fall, Lufthansa -19%. Hotels: Orient Exp +10%, Melia -4%. Others: Orbitz +20%, Thomas Cook -18%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Thai +15%; biggest fall, Malaysia -22%. Hotels: InterContinental +17%, ShangriLa -5%. Others: Priceline +10%, Intl Leisure Grp -21%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 155, US 278, AsPac 82, Eur 105.  Index previous month: WW 158, US 279, AsPac 83, Eur 113.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters, including comparison with end-year prices over the past 12 months, and with 5- and 10-years ago.

 

30 June 2014
The February ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +4% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +5%.

Etihad; another Swissair?
Is Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways heading the Swissair way?
  Etihad has just announced plans to buy 49% of Alitalia (once 25% owned by Air France, whose shareholding was cut to 7% after deciding not to participate in a recapitalisation – for the simple reason that it has no money, and certainly not to throw after a loser).
  Etihad likes losers. That might be good business if it could turn its motley collection of airlines around. But because not all report traffic data, or not on a timely basis, it is difficult to be sure. Of its airlines:
-Aer Lingus, Ireland; 3.0% owned. Seat sales currently +2%; in 2013 they were -1%.
–Air Berlin 29%. Flat; -5%.
-Air Serbia (was JAT); 49%. +66%; no earlier data.
-Air Seychelles 40%. Growing well in 2013, +44%; still strong this year, but slower, +38%.
-Alitalia, 49%. Has stopped reporting over the past 2/3 years. Started again at start of this year (traffic was falling, about -1%), but has now stopped again. The last full-year figures we have, for 2011, showed +6% - although its seat-sales total was still below what it was selling in 2005. Etihad may be more active about getting traffic growth than AF has been.
-Etihad Regional, Switzerland (was Darwin [sic]), 33%. No data, but known to be ‘troubled’ before Etihad helped out.
-Jet Airways, India; 24%. +4%; -2%.
-Virgin Australia 21%. +5%; flat.
-Link to Foxtrots blog for a fuller report on this topic: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/06/28/etihad-another-swissair/

 

-Link to Foxtrots blog: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/06/27/far-east-hospitality-resorts-world-others/

 

27 June 2014
According to our calculations on OAG data, the seat capacity share of NFAs* in Europe has grown from 5% of capacity of LCAs-plus-FSAs in 2001, to 39% in 2010, and 43% this year.
*Travel Business Analyst has specific descriptions for FSAs (full-service-airlines), LCAs (low-cost-airlines), NFAs (no-frills-airlines), which may not tally with OAG’s – and which are not defined.

-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), Page 28, in TTG Asia compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10037299#/28

26 June 2014
According to our calculations on OAG data, the seat capacity share of NFAs* in Asia Pacific has grown from 1% of capacity of LCAs-plus-FSAs in 2001, to 18% in 2010, and nearly double that, to 31%, this year.
*Travel Business Analyst has specific descriptions for FSAs (full-service-airlines), LCAs (low-cost-airlines), NFAs (no-frills-airlines), which may not tally with OAG’s – and which are not defined.

-Link to Travel Intelligence column, Page 10, in TTG Asia compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10037299#/10

25 June 2014
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in April, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +1.9% for AF+KL, +10.9% BA+IB, -0.2% LH+LX+OS.

24 June 2014
San Francisco-based AirBnB, as a private company, reveals little market data. The following are some (patternless; sorry) measures we have extracted:
-Around 5mn bookings in 2013. That would indicate a 100% growth – which to us does not seem the stunning growth often seen in new-wave ventures such as this. Because ABB gives no proper operating data, it is not possible to determine if our extrapolations have missed some elements.
-Barcelona latest-year economic impact (of business into the city from ABB clients) US$175mn.
-New York same US$632mn.
-Paris same US$257mn.
-UK same US$824mn.
* A full report on this topic in the current issue of the Net Value monthly-report highlights some important observations on the data as presented.

22 June 2014
Our YTD through February calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +6.8% (all airports +5.2%). Last month: +7.4% (+6.2%).

20 June 2014
The March hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 2.9; AsPac -1.4; Europe 4.6; US 1.6. Previous month: 3.2; 3.1; 4.6; 1.8.

Travel industry updates:
-Frankfurt airport handled 5.3mn passengers, +3.7%, in May.
-US travel agencies’ air ticket sales were US$40.8bn, +4.7%, Jan-May, and ticket transactions 65.4mn +1.9% .

19 June 2014
The April ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 149; AsPac 82; Europe 108; US 258. (Base: Dec 06.)

Travel industry updates:
-Premium travel on IATA member airlines was +3.8% in April.
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.59mn seats, +10.9%, in May.

18 June 2014
Aviation updates in May:
-Air Berlin sold 2.97mn seats, +0.5%.
-Air France-KLM sold 6.7mn seats, flat.
-American RPKs were +2.1%.
-Easyjet sold 6.05mn seats, +7.9%.
-London Heathrow handled 6.2mn passengers, +2.2%.
-SAS sold 2.6mn seats, +7.8%.
-Southwest RPKs were +0.6%.
-United RPKs were +1.2%.

17 June 2014
China Outbound. We have had to restart estimates on China outbound travel, now releases from official sources are intermittent. Our earlier estimate series were good. Last we had to do was for all-2012; we estimated +17% to 82.5mn, and when actual figures were released, they showed +18% to 83.2mn. We estimate Jan-Apr this year was +18% to just under 36mn; that would take the all-year total to 117mn!

16 June 2014
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Mar +2E; Feb +2P; Jan +3.8. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7; Sep +2.0; Aug +2.6; Jul +2.7; Jun +2.7; May +2.8; Apr +0.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

-Link to Foxtrots blog on Air Malta, Dreamjet: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/06/15/dream-on-air-malta-dreamjet-2/

-Link to Trottings blog on Malta: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/06/15/trottings-malta/

 

13 June 2014
The hotel business is moving fast – well, investors think it is going to move fast. According to Smith Travel data (on which we may have made additional calculations), the number of hotel rooms being planned is up 13.7% in the US, 13.9% in Europe - and 32.0% in Asia Pacific!

12 June 2014
According to TTG Asia, TAT (Thailand’s DMO) has cut its arrivals targets for this year. It was 28mn visitors spending US$43.8bn (at US$1 to B32). New targets are 25.4mn spending US$40.8bn.
  The spending figures are unrealistic and can simply be dismissed. The new arrivals target would mean a fall of 5.0%; fall in the first four months the fall was 4.1%.
* A full report on this topic in the July issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter highlights some important observations on the data as presented.

11 June 2014
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Mar +6E; Feb +6P; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9; Sep +8.1; Aug +7.8; Jul +4.2; Jun +6.0; May +4.0; Apr +3.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

10 June 2014
Our research indicates more bad news for Egypt’s hotel business in Q1. Occupancy fell a big 25% to 33%. There was also a fall in average room rate; this was smaller, just 4% to US$63.
  For the whole year 2013 it was 44% at US$66, and in 2012, 35% at US$56.

9 June 2014
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Mar +3E; Feb +5P; Jan +6.3. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5; Sep +4.0; Aug +6.1; Jul +1.1; Jun +5.0; May +4.3; Apr +0.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

6 June 2014
-American RPKs were +4.7% in April.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs were +7.3% in May.
-Ryanair sold 8.2mn seats +4% in May.

5 June 2014
US updates:
-In February, US international air passengers: 28.5mn, +7%; Europe +6%; Asia +5%; US nationals 11.9mn, +7%, share 42%; non-US nationals 16.6mn, +6%, share 58%; US airlines 15.0mn , +5%, 53% share; non-US airlines 13.4mn , +9%, 47% share.
-STR forecasts US hotel occupancy 63.1% +1.4% in 2014, average room rate US$115.00 +4.2%. In 2015, 63.5%, +0.6%, ARR US$119.93 +4.3%.

4 June 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Mar +4E; Feb +5P; Jan +6.3. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3; Sep +4.7; Aug +5.7; Jul +2.6; Jun +4.8; May +4.0; Apr +1.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

3 June 2014
-Airports Council International said passengers through airports in Europe in April were +8.0%; EU +7.4%, non-EU +10.0%.

-Link to Travel Intelligence column, Page 8, in TTG Asia compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10037148#/8

2 June 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in May. Airlines: biggest growth, Thai +15%; biggest fall, Malaysia -22%. Hotels: InterContinental +17%, ShangriLa -5%. Others: Priceline +10%, Intl Leisure Grp -21%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Qantas +10%; biggest fall, Air Asia -11%. Hotels: Peninsula +10%, NH -11%. Others: Avis +9%, Orbitz -8%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 158, US 279, AsPac 83, Eur 113.  Index previous month: WW 149, US 258, AsPac 82, Eur 108.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

30 May 2014
-Aeroflot sold 1.91mn seats, +20.0%, in April.
-IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports member RPKs were +7.5% in April.
-Singapore airport handled 4.38mn passengers, +3.4%, in April.
-US arrivals report for 2013 shows: 70mn +5%; Asia +9%; Oceania +8%; East Europe +18%; West Europe +2%.
-US arrivals were 5.1mn, +6%, in January.

29 May 2014
-The January ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +5% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +4%.

28 May 2014
-Three travel exhibitions in Tokyo - Tabi, Tabihaku, Visit Japan – are being merged into one event this September.

-A report is planned in the June issue of the People-in-Travel report on Adrian Zecha/Aman Resorts – entitled ‘Zecha chequered’.

27 May 2014
The ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletters, shows monthly travel industry traffic growth of:
World: 2014: Mar +4E; Feb +5P; Jan +6.3. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3.
Asia Pacific: 2014: Mar +6E; Feb +6P; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9.
Europe: 2014: Mar +3E; Feb +5P; Jan +6.3. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5.
US: 2014: Mar +2E; Feb +2P; Jan +3.8. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7.

26 May 2014
-Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in March, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -2.4% for AF+KL, +4.2% BA+IB, -0.9% LH+LX+OS.

-Strong report in current edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter on Skyscanner’s ‘Future of Travel’ report – entitled ‘Sky slammer’.

23 May 2014
Travel industry counts:
-Air Asia X sold 1.08mn seats, +66.94%, over Jan-Mar.
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.70mn seats, +10.1%, in April.
-STR reports US hotel occupancy 65.7%, +3.2%, average room rate US$114.67, +4.0%, in April.

Link to Foxtrots blog on new CEO at Pan Pacific Hotels: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/05/21/schroeder-pan-pacific-hotels/

22 May 2014
Our January calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +7.4% (all airports +6.2%). All-2013: +1.8% (+5.0%).

21 May 2014
Aviation updates:
-Air France KLM sold 6.7mn seats, +1.8%, in April.
-American RPKs were +4.7% in April.
-Emirates sold 44.5mn seats, +13%, in 2013.
-Frankfurt airport handled 4.7mn passengers, +0.9%, in April.
-IATA reports premium travel grew +1.9% in March.
-London Heathrow airport handled 6.2mn passengers, 6.7%, in April.

20 May 2014
Aviation updates:
-Copenhagen airport handled 2.2mn passengers, +12.8%, in April.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs were +9.5% in April.
-Lufthansa Group sold 8.6mn seats, -0.6%, in April.
-SAS sold 2.4mn seats, +9.2%, in April.
-Southwest RPKs were +4.4% in April.
-Turkish sold 12mn seats, +20%, in Q1.

19 May 2014
The February hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 3.2; AsPac 3.1; Europe 4.6; US 1.8. Previous month: 0.3; -1.1; 0.7; 1.2.

16 May 2014
The March ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 151; AsPac 83; Europe 113; US 257. (Base: Dec 06.)

Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), Page 24, in TTG Asia compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
 http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10036995#/24

15 May 2014
Travel industry updates:
-PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association). In its 2014-8 forecast report: repeats expectation of over-6%/year growth in visitors over 2013-8 (our counts show first semester was +3.7%); Southeast Asia fastest with +12%/year; Asia markets +8%/year; Russia +20%/year (new restrictions in Russia on outbound travel is slowing or ending growth).
* A full report on this topic in the June issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter highlights some important observations on the data as presented.
-WTO (World Tourism Organization). Reports visitor spend in 2013 was US$1.16tn, +5%, and spend on transport US$218bn (no growth shown). WTO adds these to get US$1.4tn in “export earnings”. However, not all transport earnings are exports; probably 15% are imports, and another 15% domestic spend (US traveller, for instance, flying US airline).
  WTO calculates the travel business accounts for 29% of services’ exports and 6% goods-and-services’ exports – making it fifth after fuels, chemicals, food, vehicles.
* A full report on this topic in the June issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter highlights some important observations on the data as presented.

14 May 2014
ICCA (International Congress and Convention Association) has produced its annual meetings count*.
  Our main analysis is based on multi-year results. We are motivated by those in the MICE segment of the travel business – who tell us that single-year figures can be misleading, as seen with some unusual moves. As a result, we calculate average-annual totals based on five-year periods - to balance out distortions caused by unusually-big or -small events in one year.
  Surprisingly, ICCA, although it started in 2013 also to measure by 5-year periods, still ranked its findings by single-year figures!
  Following is our ranking (for Asia Pacific, Europe, US only):
[] By country:
-The top-3 remain unchanged, but fourth is the UK the Travel Business Analyst (TBA) ranking - below France in ICCA’s single-year ranking.
-China climbs just above Japan in TBA’s ranking.
-Austria gains three places in TBA’s ranking.
[] By city, showing important changes:
-Vienna retains its top spot in TBA’s ranking – shown as slipping to 3rd in ICCA’s ranking.
-Madrid, 2nd for ICCA, falls to 6th for TBA, below its Barcelona country rival – which will not help the ongoing political debate between those two cities.
-Another big change is Amsterdam – 9th for TBA, 12th for ICCA.
* A full report on this topic in the next issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter highlights some important observations on the data as presented.
*ICCA compiles details of associations meetings only. To be counted, meetings must:
- Be organised on a regular basis. (No one-off events.)
- Rotate between at least three countries (for one year, 2001, it was four). (Not, for instance, ITB Berlin, but yes to PATA’s annual congress.)
- Have at least 50 participants. (No (small) company meetings.)

Table 2
Country ranking meetings


Country

Rank,TBA

Rank,ICCA

Country

Rank,TBA

Rank,ICCA

US

1

1

Austria

9

12

Germany

2

2

Netherlands

10

9

Spain

3

3

Switzerland

11

17

UK

4

5

Australia

12

14

France

5

4

Korea

13

10

Italy

6

6

Sweden

14

13

China

7

8

Portugal

15

11

Japan

8

7

 

 

 

Notes: ICCA for 2013 only, TBA for annual average (from ICCA data) over 2009-13. Source: International Congress and Convention Association, Travel Business Analyst.

 

Table 2
City ranking meetings


City

Rank,TBA

Rank,ICCA

City

Rank,TBA

Rank,ICCA

Vienna

1

3

Amsterdam

9

12

Paris

2

1

Lisbon

10

=9

Barcelona

3

4

Copenhagen

11

15

Berlin

4

5

Beijing

12

17

Singapore

5

6

Seoul

13

=9

Madrid

6

2

Prague

14

11

London

7

7

Stockholm

15

=20

Istanbul

8

8

 

 

 

Notes/Source: As Table 1.

 

13 May 2014
Travel industry updates:
-Air ticket sales of US travel agencies were US$32.4bn, +4.93%, in Jan-Apr. Source: ARC.
-Occupancy in Bangkok hotels was 55.2%, -30.7%, in Q1. Average room rate was US$99 (B3221.60), -0.6% (in baht). Source: STR Global.

12 May 2014
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Feb +2E; Jan +3P. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7; Sep +2.0; Aug +2.6; Jul +2.7; Jun +2.7; May +2.8; Apr +0.6; Mar +3.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

9 May 2014
Travel industry counts:
-Aeroflot sold 1.84mn seats, +16.8%, in March.
-Air Berlin sold 2.55mn seats, +2.8%, in April.
-Easyjet April sold 5.79mn seats, +10.2%, in April.
-Monarch sold 6.8mn seats, +15%, in 2013.
-Ryanair sold 7.8mn seats, +5.3%, in April.
-SAS sold 2.4mn seats, +9.2%, in April.
-Visitor spend in US US$11.9bn, +6%, in March.

8 May 2014
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Feb +6E; Jan +7P. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9; Sep +8.1; Aug +7.8; Jul +4.2; Jun +6.0; May +4.0; Apr +3.3; Mar +6.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

7 May 2014
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Feb +5E; Jan +5P. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5; Sep +4.0; Aug +6.1; Jul +1.1; Jun +5.0; May +4.3; Apr +0.5; Mar +2.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

6 May 2014
Aviation updates:
-Air France-KLM revenue was US$7.71bn (€5.55bn) in Q1. Management reports this as “stable”; it was actually -2.2%.
-IATA (International Air Transport Association) says RPKs were +3.1% in March – international +2.6%, domestic +4.0%.
-Singapore airport handled 4.49mn passengers, -2.5%, in March.

5 May 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Feb +5E; Jan +6P. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3; Sep +4.7; Aug +5.7; Jul +2.6; Jun +4.8; May +4.0; Apr +1.5; Mar +5.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

2 May 2014
Total passengers through France in Q1 grew 4%. We estimate overall growth for Asia was just 2% - but that hides some surprising falls over some route patterns.
  Of those above 100,000 passengers, Hong Kong was -23%, India -1%, Japan -1%, Singapore -17%. (Still growing well were China +9% and Thailand +11%, albeit partly because it fell 6% in Q1 2013.)
  What’s up?

1 May 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in April. Airlines: biggest growth, Qantas +10%; biggest fall, Air Asia -11%. Hotels: Peninsula +10%, NH -11%. Others: Avis +9%, Orbitz -8%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Air NZ +15%; biggest fall, SAS -19%. Hotels: NH +7%, Jinjiang -14%. Others: Kuoni +9%, Orbitz -18%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 149, US 258, AsPac 82, Eur 108.  Index previous month: WW 151, US 257, AsPac 83, Eur 113.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

end

 

 


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Current Issues...

Main contents in current issues of our newsletters and reports:

Travel Business Analyst, Asia Pacific: First half results. CWT on 2015 prices. Amadeus on future. Plus: Market Monitor; World Travel Industry Index; ZERO; Market Headlines; Market Outlook; and 20 regular tables of market data.


Travel Business Analyst, Europe: First half results. CWT on 2015 prices. Russia outbound. Plus: Market Monitor; World Travel Industry Index; ZERO; Extracts from Net Value or People-in-Travel; Market Headlines; and 16 regular tables of market data.


Net Value: Expedia first-half; others.


People-in-Travel: Scott Supernaw; Arne Sorenson; Ho Kwon Ping; others.


Foxtrots/Trottings (recent): Air France No 1?; Alitalia - the real facts; Tiger Air gives tigers a bad name.


ZERO (occasional): Climate change; Cleaner air; FURther thoughts.

 

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