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Sources for information shown in this section are generally the companies or associations concerned, and may not be marked. Other sources marked. Travel Business Analyst is marked 'TBA'.

 

Travel industry updates:
28 January 2015
2014:
-Dubai airport handled 70.5mn passengers, +6.1%.
-STR says the Americas (North and South) hotel occupancy was 64.4%, +3.4%, average room rate US$117.27, +4.1%.
-US international air passengers were 197.3mn, +7%.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.
-WTO reports 1.14bn visitors, +4.7%.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

Monthly:
-Dubai airport handled 6.50mn passengers, +7.5%, in December.
-US international air passengers were +4% in December.
-US outbound travel to overseas markets was 2.1mn, +4%, in November.

Travel Intelligence in TTG Asia
27 January 2015
-Link to Travel Intelligence column, in the TTG Asia Daily at ATF in Myanmar, page 8, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10040145#/8

Airline group traffic
26 January 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in November, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +0.1% for AF+KL, +8.8% BA+IB, +1.6% LH+LX+OS.

Travel industry updates:
23 January 2015
2014:
-Frankfurt airport handled 59.6mn passengers, +2.6%.
-Lyon airport handled 8.47mn passengers, -1.1%.
-Melbourne airport handled 8mn international passengers, +8%.
-Munich airport handled 39.7mn passengers, +3%.
-St Petersburg airport handled 14.3mn passengers, +11%.
-STR reports US hotel occupancy at 64.4%, +3.6%, average room rate US$115.32, +4.6%.

Monthly:
-Cathay (with Dragonair) sold 2.77mn seats, +6.5%, in December.
-Frankfurt airport handled 4mn passengers, -2%, in December.
-Visitors to the US spent US$18.4bn in November.
-World Travel Market’s conference and event program counted 17,036 attendees, +4.5%, at its November event.

Airports
22 January 2015
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for August, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +5.0% (all airports +6.8%). Last month: +5.0% (+4.7%).

AsPac travel commentary
21 January 2015
-Our AsPac estimates - inbound +5%, outbound +9%.
-China inbound. Still falling, -1%.
-Our China outbound estimate - +14%.
-Our India outbound estimate - +1%.
-Japan, Korea outbound 2014 - J 16.9mn, K 16.1mn!
-Thailand inbound 2014. Despite a late rally, arrivals in 2014 were still down 7%. China fell fractionally, but is growing on a monthly basis. Russia was down 8%, but is now falling much faster.

Index, travel stocks
20 January 2015
The December ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 171; AsPac 94; Europe 113; US 306. (Base: Dec 06.)

Hotel-room pipeline, China’s Big-3 airlines
19 January 2015
-Hotel-room pipeline. We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for December: World +19%, US +14%, AsPac +23%, Eur -2%.

-China’s Big-3 airlines. No change in order, but significant developments nevertheless. China Eastern remains largest in 2014 in international seats sold, 9.6mn, but it grew only 6%. Air China grew 18% and so reached just over 9.2mn, and China Southern grew even faster, 21%, taking it to just under 9.2mn. Equality has returned to China!
  If growths continue at those same rates this year, CS will be largest at end-2015, with just over 11mn seats sold, then AC with just under 11mn, and CE with just over 10mn.

Travel industry updates, 2014:
16 January 2015
-Austrian sold 11.2mn seats, -1.1%.
-Brussels airport handled 21.9mn passengers, +14.6%.
-Copenhagen airport handled 25.6mn passengers, +6.5%.
-Finnair's RPKs were +0.2%.
-Glasgow airport handled 7.7mn passengers, +4.8%.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) sold 77.3mn seats, +15.0%.
-London Luton airport handled 10.5mn passengers, +8.1%.
-London Stansted airport handled 20.0mn passengers, +12%.
-Southwest RPKs were +3.5%.
-Swiss sold 16.2mn seats, +1.3%.
-US travel agencies sold US$89.6bn worth of air tickets, +2.4%.

Travel industry monthly updates:
15 January 2015
-Air France sold 6.2mn seats, +1.3%, Transavia 0.5mn, +17.5%, in December.
-ACI member airports passengers handled were +5.3% in November.
-American RPKs were 0.4% in December.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) sold 5.8mn seats, +10.8%, in December.
-IATA member airlines RPKs were +6.0% in November.
-SAS sold 1.9mn seats, +7.1%, in December.
-Southwest RPKs were +2.8% in December.
-United RPKs were +0.1% in December.
-US travel agencies sold US$5.5bn worth of air tickets, +3.9%, in December.
-US visitors were 6.3mn, +6%, in October.

Index, travel numbers
14 January 2015
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Oct +5E; Sep +5E; Aug +4.2; Jul +5.7; Jun +5.8; May +6.3; Apr +7.5; Mar +2.1; Feb +3.4; Jan +4.5. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Egypt, Scoot
13 January 2015
-A sort-of political stability in Egypt may have brought better results for its hotels. On a same-store basis, we estimate that in 2014 occupancy fell 9.0% to 32%. But average room rates grew 13.2% to US$72 (based on a constant US$s, at US$1 to EL7.15).
  But current-day results are worse – 2014 occupancy -5% to 28%, ARR -13% to US$122.

-Getting figures from words from (a hazardous task) we calculate Scoot sold an average of 167k seats monthly over the past six months. That’s the same as the previous six months, but that earlier period included peak months, so the result looks good. Annual growth seems to be running at just under 17%.
  Scoot’s annual count is around 2mn. That is less that Air Asia X at the same stage of its life (2.4mn, +32%). And its current monthly seat sales are smaller – AAX was close to 350k/month in 2014.

Index, travel numbers
12 January 2015
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Oct +6E; Sep +5P; Aug +7.6; Jul +6.1; Jun +4.9; May +8.4; Apr +7.7; Mar +4.4; Feb +5.6; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

9 January 2015
2014 results:
-Air Berlin sold 31.7mn seats, +0.6%.
-Amsterdam airport handled 55mn passengers, +4.6%.
-Easyjet sold 65.3mn seats, +6.5%.
-Finnair sold 9.63mn seats, +3.9%.
-Hawaiian sold 10.2mn seats, +2.6%.
-Icelandair sold 2.6mn seats, +15%.
-Ryanair sold 86.4mn seats, +6%.

 

8 January 2015
Big Changes: British Airways, Club Med, Lufthansa.
To start the new year, our thoughts on what we believe are important changes that will have a wider affect outside these companies. At British/Aer Lingus, Club Med, Lufthansa/Germanwings.

British Airways
In December, IAG (a holding company that comprises British, Iberia, Vueling) made a surprise bid to buy Aer Lingus (AL). There was an initial refusal, as usual, and there is likely to be further developments.
  But outside that there are important factors. At the time British (BA) and Iberia formed IAG in 2011, we said BA should have taken over AL and not Iberia – which was in trouble and which is still not out of it.
  Part of our reasoning was that the Willie Walsh, head of BA (and now also of IAG), had previously been 26 years at AL, including his CEO role there. To say the least, he must have known a lot about AL.
  If he did not buy then because AL was not in a good state (it was losing money at the time he left), then Walsh was presumably not a good CEO. (Indeed, we also raised the question as to why BA had chosen him.)
  And why now buy AL now? If AL is in better shape – it is, marginally – then that is an even more negative comment about Walsh.
  But overall, IAG’s move may be for different reasons. FSAs* in Europe (and in many other regions as well), such as BA, are finding it hard to survive. IAG has already bought Vueling, part-LCA*/part-NFA*. And AL could be another move in this direction; AL is similar to Vueling – albeit NFA on its intraEurope routes, and FSA/LCA on its transAtlantic flights.
  Ironically, British has been here before, being in the rather ridiculous situation of having started two NFAs itself and then selling them off – because, in the common- but often-misguided-belief, that it must ‘stick to its core competence’.
  Air France is still trying to reorganise itself to expand its NFA Transavia into an LCA – although it is so far being prevented by unions in France from doing so. And Lufthansa is doing the same thing, see below.

Club Med
China’s Fosun has agreed to buy Club Med at a price that values the company at about US$1.1bn (although that is not the amount paid by Fosun). Fosun first bought into CM, just 10%, in 2010. At the time this investment was cheered, because Fosun would surely save CM (although the logic was shakey; Fosun was a Chinese company and China was an important and growing travel market – but Fosun was not in the travel business before that!).
  The stockmarket, at least, does not think Fosun has been much help – CM’s share price has fallen from over US$150 in 2000 to around US$30 now. It is trying to go upmarket. Even though that is far from its image, even today, still it persists.
  We need to go back a long way to explain today’s problems at CM. A commentary in People-in-Travel, a version of which was published in The Economist in the year Fosun bought its 10%:
  The reason CM’s decline started - in the 1980s - was when co-founder Gilbert Trigano preferred to give the top job to his son Serge rather than the then equal number-two, Jean-Robert Reznik - who was generally considered to have a better grasp of marketing. Serge was just the son of his dad.
  Going up-market seems a sound business tactic - getting more revenue per customer. But there are some important challenges: converting existing customers to accept, in effect, a new product costing more; or finding new customers; or making more profit from a product that costs more to produce.
  We believe the post-Trigano- and subsequent-teams underestimated these challenges, and indeed were not able to overcome them.
  Also, Henri Giscard d’Estaing has been in his post more than 10 years [now 15] and has also failed to make the upmarket push (which he has tried twice [now four]) to work. The blame is put on 9/11 but the decline started well before that.
  We are amazed that HGdE is still in the top job after 15 years of failure. For the present he will stay, but surely Fosun will replace him in the next six months? But to do what? CM is now such a mess of products and marketing messages that it is probably not possible to save.
  One way might be to dump the luxury and return to the original formula – simplicity, fun. The other way – build luxury resorts – does not seem to be what customers want, and is certainly still not the image inspired by the CM name.
  But then there is Fosun. We know little about its competence in strategy, but we guess it has little, if any, in the travel business. But, being a Chinese company, proud, it will not back down for some time (five years?) and then either steadily drop the luxury business and concentrate on fun resorts in locations popular with pleasure-seekers from China – such as Hainan, Maldives, and probably also Club Med’s France homeland.

Lufthansa
The Lufthansa Group (LG) is reworking its airline strategy. It has broadly understood what needs to be done, but its changes are 4-times more complicated than they need to be. Let us explain:
  As we have noted before, FSAs of a certain size (we are not certain of numbers, but one measure could be around 70mn seat sales in a year) need to operate an LCA and NFA as well as their FSA. The LG has its FSA Lufthansa (LH; plus Austrian, Swiss), and its NFA Germanwings (GW). GW is not a success because LH controls it too tightly; LG did not follow NFA ‘rules’ - see end of this story.
  Now LG is trying again, albeit in an unnecessary complicated way. Firstly, this is what LG plans (slightly abridged to make it easier to follow!):
LH has transferred its intraEurope routes not serving Frankfurt and Munich hubs to GW, and GW and Eurowings will continue also to operate their current networks. Longhaul services, due end-2015, will be with Sun Express (a JV of Lufthansa and Turkish).
  LH is needed, but only two others – such as GW as an LFA, and Eurowings (with or without Sun Express) as an LCA. Under the present plans, Eurowings, GW, Sun are all part-LCA/part-NFA; in marketing terms alone, surely LG management can see that is a dumb plan?
  But the plan may simply show that LG management still does not know what to do. After making the first mistake with GW, this seems strange. But perhaps it will learn from what both Air France and British/IAG are trying to do, and then make the necessary further changes in its own structure.
  We give LG two years before it readjusts its structure closer to what we are saying.

*Notes:
-FSA = full-service-airline. Offering first/business/economy, travel agency bookings, meals/bookings/baggage/cancellations included, etc. As its name indicates – full service.
-LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline; see next.) An FSA but with lower operating costs (cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for instance), fewer fare types, which may have first and business cabins, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc. Usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.)
-NFA = no-frills-airline. We believe that among the many essential elements that make a successful NFA are: market freedom in terms of routes and aircraft choice; single aircraft type; where relevant, competition against parent airline allowed; fares that are extremely low when booked at least three months in advance, say US$25; one fare at one time (no wholesale rates, travel agency commissions, etc); no refunds; no service frills; single economy-class cabin; no seat selection; two toilets for 150-seat aircraft; 25-minute turnaround time; cabin crew do daytime cabin cleaning; name and flight change charged at least US$25 each; no trade shows; plenty of consumer advertising and promotion; and much more.

 

7 January 2015
-Dubai airport handled 5.34mn passengers, +4.3%, in November.
-Easyjet sold 4.63mn seats, +3.2%, in December.
-Average price of aviation jet fuel, end December, was US$75/barrel, -42%.
-Finnair sold 721.2k seats, +3.9%, in December.
-2020. STR Global forecasts US hotels will have 64% occupancy, same as 2014, average room rate US$150, +30%.
-IATA members RPKs were +6.0% in November.
-The JAL Group sold 437k international seats, +3.3%, 1.57mn domestic seats, -2.3%, Dec 19-Jan 4.
-Ryanair sold 6mn seats, +20%, in December.
-US international air passenger traffic +7% in November.

6 January 2015
Index, travel numbers. Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Oct +3E; Sep +5P; Aug +4.3; Jul +3.5; Jun +6.0; May +3.5; Apr +5.3; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.1; Jan +6.3. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

5 January 2015
Index, travel numbers. Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Oct +5E; Sep +5P; Aug +5.5; Jul +5.1; Jun +5.0; May +6.1; Apr +7.0; Mar +2.4; Feb +5.4; Jan +6.9. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

2 January 2015
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in December. Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +29%; biggest fall, Thai -9%. Hotels: Belmond +9%, Wynn -17%. Others: Royal Carib Cruise +12%, Airbus -16%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +39%; biggest fall, Malaysia +4%. Hotels: InterContinental +14%, Wynn -6%. Others: TUI +13%, Orbitz -8%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 171, US 306, AsPac 94, Eur 113.  Index previous month: WW 168, US 299, AsPac 92, Eur 114.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Dublin +3%; biggest fall, Bangkok -6%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters, including comparison with end-year prices over the past 12 months, and with 5- and 10-years ago.

31 December 2014
-Domestic+International air seats sold. ICAO estimates 3.2bn, +5%, in 2014.
-Air France-KLM before-tax estimate. Reduced by US$244mn (€200mn) for all-2015; it is not clear what the earlier estimate was.

30 December 2014
-Japan Airlines international seat sales. 437,334 +3.3%, Xmas/New Year Dec 19-Jan 4. Forecast was 432,024.

29 December 2014
-Aeroflot sold 2.6mn seats, +9.9%, in November.
-US nationals’ travel to overseas destinations was 2.2mn, +5%, in October.

26 December 2014
Airline groups. Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in October, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -1.4% for AF+KL, +16.8% BA+IB, +1.7% LH+LX+OS.

24 December 2014
-London Heathrow airport handled 5.47mn passengers, +1.1%, in November.
-Germany’s TUI travel group turnover was US$22.8bn, +1.2%, in fiscal year through October.
-US travel spending (inbound, outbound, domestic) was +1.3% in Q3, following +3.3% Q2. Travel prices +0.6% in Q3, +6.6% Q2.
-US visitors spent US$18.5bn, +3%, in October.
-World visitor arrivals. WTO says arrivals were 978mn, +4.7%, Jan-Oct. It forecasts 1.1bn for all-2014, although we calculate that would be only +1.2%. We estimate 1.4bn, +4.8%.

23 December 2014
-Airline profits. IATA forecasts member airlines will report US$19.9bn net profit in 2014 - up from US$18.0bn forecast in June - and US$25.0bn in 2015.
-Alitalia expects to sell 800,000 seats, +7%, over Xmas/New Year Dec 23-Jan 7.
-Economy, premium air travel. IATA says seat sales in member airlines’ economy classes were +3.7%, premium +2.9%, in October.
-Japan v Korea. TBA estimates that Korea will just miss becoming a bigger outbound travel market this year than Japan – despite the big population difference (50mn, 127mn). We estimate 15.7mn for Korea and 17.0mn for Japan. On current trends, the switch should take place in Q3 2015.

22 December 2014
Airports. Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for July, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +5.0% (all airports +4.7%). Last month: +5.4% (+5.9%).

19 December 2014
The September hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.4; AsPac -0.1; Europe 1.8; US 2.3. Previous month: 1.9; 4.6; -1.3; 2.4.

18 December 2014
-North America outbound. Trips* +5%, overnights +8%, spend +19%, holiday travel +6%, business travel +4%, in 2014* . Trips* forecast +3% in 2015. *Definitions not clear. Source: IPKI/ITBB.

US updates:
-2013 spending restated. Inbound US$215bn, +7%; outbound US$137bn, +5%; thus positive balance of US$78bn, +11%.
-International air passengers. 166.4mn, +7%, Jan-Oct.
-Travel agencies. US$84.1bn airline tickets sold, +4.0%; 136.5mn ticket transactions +2.2%; 344.9mn passenger segments +2.8% Jan-Nov. Source: ARC.
-Visitors. 6.1mn, +2%, in September.

17 December 2014
-AEA member airline seat sales. 1mn daily, +3%, Xmas/New Year Dec 20-Jan 4.
-Japan Airlines international seat sales. 432,024 +10.2%, Xmas/New Year Dec 19-Jan 4.
-Russia travel market. Inbound forecast -13.3%, outbound forecast 42.8mn, -20.9%, in 2014. Domestic travel forecast 37mn in 2014 to 55mn in 2018. Source: R&M.
-Soccer world-cup, Brazil. Visitors 1mn, spend US$2000, 55% stayed 4-15 nights – during event*. *Definitions not clear; no comparisons given. Source: IPKI/ITBB.

16 December 2014
-Hotel-room pipeline. We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for November: World +17%, US +17%, AsPac +29%, Eur +4%.
-Index, travel stocks. The November ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 168; AsPac 92; Europe 114; US 299. (Base: Dec 06.)

15 December 2014
-Air Berlin sold 2.02mn seats, +0.5%, in November.
-Easyjet sold 4.39mn seats, +3.1%, in November.
-Ryanair all-2014 forecast increased from 89mn sold seats to 90mn, which would be +10.6%.

12 December 2014
-American RPKs -0.5% in November.
-Ryanair sold 6.35mn seats, +22.0% (sic, even though +6.1% year earlier), in November.
-Southwest RPKs +6.0% in November.
-United RPKs -0.3% in November.

11 December 2014
-AirBnB in Portland. Length-of-stay of ABB guests averages 3.9 nights, compared to 2.1 for hotel guests, and spend US$815 compared to US$360. (The daily difference is less; US$209 daily for ABB, US$171 for those in hotels.)
-Copenhagen airport handled 1.84mn passengers, +2.4%, in November.
-SAS sold 2.2mn seats, +2.3%, in November.

10 December 2014
-Asia Cruise Association. Asia’s market will be 3.8mn, a 14.3% annual average growth rate, giving it a 38% share in 2020.
-Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index 3839, +2.9%, in November, and +20.8% YTD.
-IATA member airline RPKs +5.7% in October.

9 December 2014
-Visitors from China into Switzerland forecast by Timetric to overtake those from France by 2018.
-Europe visitor arrivals +5% Q3. Source: ECM, Forward Keys.
-Japan Tourism Agency. Appointed Accenture for a 7-month contract to boost visitor arrivals in the target to count 20mn visitors in 2020. On present trends Japan will easily achieve that total.

8 December 2014
-Asian source markets forecast by PATA to be 462mn trips, a 7.3% annual average growth, over 2013-18.
-Monarch seat sales expected to be 7mn, +3%, this year.
-US outbound travel to overseas markets 2.4mn, +7%, in September, and 23.8mn, +7%, YTD.

5 December 2014
Some business news from the ILTM exhibition in Cannes, which closed yesterday. Reports on product updates at some of these organisations due to be published next week.

[] Leading Hotels, US.
-Due to launch an advertising campaign – a description it eschews, preferring ‘brand strategy’ – in 2015.
-Follows change of owners six years ago. It says it spent five years fixing the company, and this year “we started thinking about what we do from here”.

[] Mandarin Oriental, Hong Kong.
-Recent openings in China are Guangzhou, Shanghai; planned for Shenzhen.
-Projects include resorts – which MO previously avoided – in Bali, Maldives, Turkey. Work has stopped on Maldives while owner seeks refinancing.

[] Oetker Collection, Germany.
-Lanesborough, now closed for renovation, is due to reopen April 2015.

[] Peninsula, Hong Kong.
-Building a village for 100 people where a super typhoon hit in Mindanao, Philippines in November 2013.

[] Relais & Chateaux, France.
-New locations in Hong Kong and Maldives.
-Plans to launch new digital platform in 2015.

[] Six Senses, Thailand.
-Opened its first property in Europe, 90 minutes from Porto, Portugal. Was house, built around 1900; comprehensive renovation.
-Chose another corporate name for its properties in China - Liu Shan. Means roughly ‘six wellness’.
-Sees substantial opportunities for development in Central and South America, but also in Africa.
-Also looking for urban properties, even Manhattan.

[] Small Luxury Hotels, UK.
-Company, owned primarily by CEO Paul Kerr, sold to the owners of two of its resorts in Spain. Not yet officially announced, and new owners have not yet taken over operationally; they are currently looking for a CEO.
-Operations. Average room rate still not back to pre-crisis 2008 when it was US$400 (quoted in US$); this year about US$360. In 2005, business share from travel agencies was 75%; now 55%. YTD increase in mobile bookings 62%.
-It may add boats/yachts to its product offer.

[] Starwood, US.
-Its luxury division (brands Luxury Collection (sic), St Regis, W) due to open 18 hotels in 2015. Most in one year before this was 12.

[] Virtuoso, US.
-Turnover (gross booking value) expected to be US$14bn, +12.0%, this year.
-Has just added 16 travel agency members in Europe. (Members, of which it has 355, are only outbound travel agencies. Its partners of which there are 1700, are suppliers and include inbound travel agencies.)

Different reports on these topics are published in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-report, Foxtrots blog, Facebook-Travel-Business-Analyst. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.

 

4 December 2014
Some business news from the ILTM exhibition in Cannes, which closes today. Reports on product updates at some of these organisations due to be published next week.

[] Banyan Tree, Singapore.
-Plans to open 30 properties in next two years; currently it has 37.
-Launched Cassia this year as its third brand. BT launched 20 years ago; Angsana 12 years.
-First Cassia is due to be Phuket; five are confirmed. Will be a sort of time-share; BT does not use that term. The hotels’ units will be separately-owned and owners get 60 days accommodation.
-A fourth brand is due to be launched in 2015. It will be at a standard similar to Cassia.

[] Belmond, ex-Orient Express, UK.
-Due to add another train product, in Ireland, in 2015. This will be its 46th ‘product’ – primarily hotels but also cruises and trains.
-It has signed its first management contract – for the small Cadogan hotel in London. Currently closed for renovation, it is due to reopen in 2016.

[] Dorchester Collection, UK.
-Publicity/promotional activity have been reduced this year following boycotts after the group’s owner, the Sultan of Brunei, introduced the sharia-law system in his country. It is certain that DC’s revenue has fallen this year as a result.
-At its Plaza Athenee in Paris, added ballroom and 14 suites in adjacent buildings bought for this expansion.

[] Four Seasons, Canada.
-Moved its EAME regional office from Switzerland to Dubai.
-Launching private 52-seat B757 service in FS colours, with flat-bed seats, wifi etc. Jet not owned by FS; leased from Switzerland-based TAG Aviation through US-based tour operator TCS Expeditions (whose other B757s have 78 seats).
-First of five itineraries/year due February 2015. Because this will be well short of full utilisation, FS’s B757 is also available for charter.
-Openings in past few days/weeks - Orlando in Disneyland, Dubai, Johannesburg (reopening). Due soon - Bahrain Q1 2015, London (its third, in Trinity Square) 2016.

[] ILTM, France.
-Organisers hosted seven media for the exhibition when it started in 2002. They hosted 70 this year; Travel Business Analyst was not one.

[] Jumeirah, Dubai.
-Has doubled hotels since 2011; now 22, plus 17 in development.

[] Kyoto, Japan.
-Targets 3mn foreign visitors in 2020. It was 1.13mn in 2013; that would mean annual average growth of 15.0%, and thus the target is unlikely to be reached.

Different reports on these topics are published in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, the Net Value and People-in-Travel monthly-report, Foxtrots blog, Facebook-Travel-Business-Analyst. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.

 

3 December 2014
-Aeroflot sold 2.9mn seats, +8.0% , in October .
-Airline share prices +14% in November. Source: IATA.
-Airline RPKs +5.7% in October. Source: IATA.
-Dubai airport handled 5.99mn passengers , +5.7%, in October.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) RPKs +5.9% in November .
-US visitor spend US$19.1bn, +7% , in September.

2 December 2014
‘TBA All-Travel Index’. The August index in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +1% over the same month in 2013. Previous month -4%.

1 December 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in November. Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +39%; slowest growth (no fall), Malaysia +4%. Hotels: InterContinental +14%, Wynn -6%. Others: TUI +13%, Orbitz -8%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Qantas +21%; biggest fall, SAS -11%. Hotels: Marriott +8%, Starwood -8%. Others: IILG +10%, Hertz -14%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 168, US 299, AsPac 92, Eur 114.  Index previous month: WW 157, US 285, AsPac 84, Eur 103.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

28 November 2014
-Europe. Visitors 413mn, +4.2%, Jan-Aug. Outbound trips +3% (no figure), for all-2014 (sic) +3% 2015. Source: IPKI/ITBB; inbound may be not-credited WTO figures as these are the same.
-US international air passenger traffic. 150.9mn, +7%, Jan-Sep.

27 November 2014
-Link to Foxtrots blog on Air France: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/11/27/air-france-bad-to-worse/

26 November 2014
ITB/IPK. A report in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains serious criticism of a report on ITB/IPK’s World Travel Monitor, and recommends readers to ignore the so-called findings.

25 November 2014
-Macau gambling receipts. US$46.1bn, +18.4%, in 2013.
-Ryanair seat sales. Forecasts 3.5m, +16.7%, December 20-January 6.
-Singapore airport passengers. 4.49mn, +1.9%, in October.
-US visitors. 8.4mn, +7%, in August.
-World Travel Market visits. 82,213, +5.4%.

24 November 2014
Airline groups. Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in September, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -17.4% for AF+KL, +11.4% BA+IB, +3.6% LH+LX+OS.

21 November 2014
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.66mn seats, +5.0%, in October.
-PATA. Included in its Annual Tourism Monitor: AsPac arrivals (which for PATA includes some distant destinations such as Chile) were 238mn, +5.2%, Jan-Jun.
-Thailand visitors 2.18mn, +6.1%, in October.

20 November 2014
-Easyjet sold 71.5mn seats, +5.1%, in its year through September.
-Trampolinn now has 12,000 members and 5000 products. Launched in March 2014 as an AirBnB-like operation in Europe – but with exchange accommodation, not paid.

19 November 2014
The August hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.9; AsPac 4.6; Europe -1.3; US 2.4. Previous month: 0.7; -0.7; 0.2; 2.5.

US updates:
-Travel agencies. US$78.1bn airline tickets sold, +4.5%; 126.3mn ticket transactions +2.5%; 317.2mn passenger segments +2.9% Jan-Oct. Source: ARC.
-Hotels. Occupancy 64.4% +3.7%, average room rate US$115.53 +4.6%, new forecasts for 2014. In 2015, 65.1% +1.1%, US$121.37 +5.0%. Source: STR, Tourism Economics.
-Citizen international outbound travel 6.8mn, +6%, in August. Source: US dept of commerce.

18 November 2014
-International air passengers: +2.3%; premium +2.3%, economy +2.3%; intra-Far East -1.6% (falls in Malaysia, Thailand); intra- Europe +2.3%; in September. Source: IATA.
-Russia outbound* -1% Jan-Aug, due mainly to -50% in travel to Ukraine (2nd-largest after Turkey); excluding Ukraine +10%. Total in 2013, 31.5mn; growth not given. Source: IPK/ITB Berlin.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

17 November 2014
-Index, travel stocks. The October ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 157; AsPac 84; Europe 103; US 285. (Base: Dec 06.)

-Outbound, Inbound. We estimate: outbound travel by AsPac nationals/residents (from our own data) 125.3mn, +9.5%, Jan-Jul; visitor arrivals (from WTO data) in AsPac totalled 171.9mn, +4.9%, Jan-Aug.

14 November 2014
Travel industry updates:
-Aeroflot. Sold 2.15mn seats, +9.4%, in September.
-Air Berlin. Sold 3.06mn seats, +1.5%, in October.
-Air France KLM. Sold 6.9mn seats, +2.1%, in October. Transavia 1.0mn +17.9%.
-Copenhagen airport. Handled 2.3mn passengers, +7.1%, in October.
-Easyjet. Sold 5.84mn seats, +5.5%, in October.
-Europe airports. Passengers handled +3.9% in September.
-Hotel-room pipeline. We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for October: World +17%, US +15%, AsPac +32%, Eur +5%.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling). RPKs were +7.5% in October.
-London Heathrow airport. Handled 6.32mn passengers, +0.4%, in October.
-World Travel Market 52,000 delegates +4% – registered buyers +7%, trade visitors +6%, international media +2% - November 3–6.

13 November 2014
Index. Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Sep +6E; Aug +4P; Jul +5.5; Jun +5.8; May +6.3; Apr +7.5; Mar +2.1; Feb +3.4; Jan +4.5. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates:
-Air Asia. Sold 10.7mn seats, +1%, Jul-Sep - AA India 0.13mn, no comparison as new division; AA Indonesia 1.8mn -10%; AA Malaysia 5.3mn +0%; AA Thailand 2.9mn +12%; AA Philippines 0.62mn -15%.
-American. RPKs were +0.2% in October.
-Baird/STR hotel stock index 3730, +3.6%, in October.
-Emirates. Sold 23.3mn seats, +8.4%, in Apr-Sep first half.
-Southwest. RPKs were +4.4% in October.
-United. RPKs were +0.4% in October.

12 November 2014
Air Asia. Its report for Q3 jumps over or ignores the bad news that we see in the latest traffic figures. These are the main ones, in order of damage:
-AA Malaysia, the core operation, seat sales were flat (+0.47%).
-AA Indonesia seat sales fell 10.1%.
-AA Philippines seat sales fell a shocking 15.4%. And its seat factor is at a dangerously-low 62.9%.
  For all AA divisions, Q3 growth was just 1.2%.  YTD growth, at +10.3%, still looks reasonable, even though this is half the rate in 2013.
  AA India’s first figures reported; no comparison of course. Its seat factor was a reasonable 76.3%, but we estimate that it needs to be at least 5-points higher.

Virgin Australia. Recently, VA changed again its manner of presenting data, although we can still make the adjustments to present a standardised view. With this, we can see that there are some measures indicating that all is not well at the company.
  Some comments on VA’s latest report:
-Growth in seat sales on domestic-Australia is bad, -1.9% in Q3 and +1.8% YTD.
-International growth in seat sales is weak (for a newish operator internationally), just +2.1% in Q3 and 6.3% YTD. That said, seat factor is good – 83%, 81%.
-Tiger Australia, now part of the VA group, is also weak. Q3 growth was +5.6% (on figures which are restated – although VA does not tell you that). That may look reasonable - but not for a relaunched no-frills-airline. YTD looks better, +8.0%, but we think it should be closer to 15%.

Malaysia Airlines. No relief in sight. September figures show a 12.9% fall in international seats sold although YTD is still 2.4% ahead. Surprisingly, domestic is almost as bad, down 11.8% in the latest month; normally this would be expected to recover sooner.

Thai Airways. It’s getting worse! September figures show a 23.4% fall in international seats sold and YTD -22.9%! Although we don’t have all the figures, the problem seems to be more domestic traffic than international. Some measures (RPKs) show -44.1% in September and -27.9% YTD. We expected a slight recovery around this time; these figures are bad.

11 November 2014
Index. Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Sep +6E; Aug +8P; Jul +6.3; Jun +4.9; May +8.4; Apr +7.7; Mar +4.4; Feb +5.6; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Aviation updates:
-SAS. Sold 2.7mn seats, +7.9%, in October.
-US air passenger traffic. 135.3mn, +7%, over Jan-Aug; Europe +5%, Asia +6%.

10 November 2014
-China outbound travel. We calculate growth 13.6% Jan-Aug, and almost the same, 13.9%, in August. Is this lower rate (for the past four years it has been +18-22%) the new reality?


-China inbound travel. The DMO is starting to provide deeper data. Summarising, the Jan-Sep visitor total shows a high non-leisure share – which we long suspected but could not see in the data. Although these might not be perfect separations, only 33.9% is defined as Leisure; 20.5% Business; 2.3% VFR. The rest includes crew and ‘workers’ (not otherwise defined), but then 30.7% ‘Others’. We presume that includes diplomatic visitors but perhaps also those travelling with official and semi-official delegations. All this makes the non-core categories (core are leisure, business, VFR) the biggest single share, with 43.3%. These categories are shown by country counts – but that leads to the other big caveat. The breakdowns are by passport, so many of those American, Australian, British, and other visitors, will actually be living in Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, etc. Caveat lector.


-India outbound travel. We have started a monthly estimate, as official data is slow to be published, and is usually produced annually. For Jan-Jun this shows 8.3mn, a 1.2% fall.


-Thailand inbound travel. Overall visitors -7.0% in September (although on official figures given in 2013, we calculate the fall to be -10.1% - perhaps the new government counts differently?). The two markets to watch – China -6.3% (still down; we thought it would start to pick up around now), Russia -19.7%. At Bangkok airport, where you can assume there are more business travellers, VFRs, others, it was worse – China -18.1%, Russia -34.2%! YTD that leaves the all-country total -10.3%, China -17.4%, Russia still up, +3.2%.

 

7 November 2014
Index. Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Sep +4E; Aug +4P; Jul +3.7; Jun +6.1; May +3.6; Apr +5.7; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.0; Jan +6.3. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

6 November 2014
-Copenhagen airport handled 19.7mn passengers, +7.1%, Jan-Sep.
-IATA member airline RPKs +5.3% in September.
-JAL Group international RPK +3.3%, domestic +1.2%, first-half Apr-Sep.
-Ryanair sold 51.3mn seats, +4%, first-half Apr-Sep; 8.4mn, +5%, in October.
-World Travel Market all-delegates +5%.

5 November 2014
-Singapore; what’s happening? Arrivals down 8.3% in the latest month, August, and -3.3% YTD. Actually, the main reason is China (14.6% of the total in 2013): -28.2% and -29.2%! Now, even outbound is falling: -3.5% in August, albeit still +4.1% YTD.
-Airline RPKs. IATA (International Air Transport Association) says RPKs were +5.3% in September – both international and domestic +5.3%; Asia Pacific +4.8%; Europe +3.9%; North America +2.1%; Australia +2.7%; Brazil +4.0%; China +8.6%; India +26.3%; Japan +2.0%; Russia +5.6%; US +5.3%.
-Tokyo airports. Poor Narita in deep trouble now authorities all Haneda to add more international flights. YTD (July) NRT is falling, while HND is +24%. Latest month is worse for NRT: -5.7% NRT, +41.0% HND!

4 November 2014
Index. Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Sep +5E; Aug +6P; Jul +5.2; Jun +5.0; May +6.1; Apr +7.0; Mar +2.4; Feb +5.4; Jan +6.9. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

3 November 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in October. Airlines: biggest growth, Qantas +21%; biggest fall, SAS -11%. Hotels: Marriott +8%, Starwood -8%. Others: IILG +10%, Hertz -14%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +13%; biggest fall, Air NZ -12%. Hotels: Jinjiang +7%, Belmond -9%. Others: TUI +7%, Avis Budget -19%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 157, US 285, AsPac 84, Eur 103.  Index previous month: WW 154, US 277, AsPac 83, Eur 103.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

31 October 2014
Travel industry updates:
-London Heathrow airport. Handled 55.7mn passengers, +1.5%, Jan-Sep.
-TUI AG. Germany-based TUIAG takes over UK-based TUI Travel. TUIT shareholders get 0.399 new TUIAG shares in exchange for each TUIT share.

A report in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter charges the marketing strategy of European Cities Marketing as misguided, following ECM’s new report on hotel results.

30 October 2014
Travel industry updates:
-China outbound. TBA’s calculation for July, the latest month, shows travel has recovered slightly – +11.6% after growing only +6.9% the month earlier. YTD has been pulled down to +13.6%. All these are well down on the +18.7% for all-2013.
-Dubai airport. Handled 5.94mn passengers, +9.9%, in September.

29 October 2014
‘TBA All-Travel Index’. The June index in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at -4% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +2%.

A report on France in the Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains critical comment on the visitor arrivals business and the new businessplan for the state-owned rail company.

28 October 2014
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in August, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +1.8% for AF+KL, +11.1% BA+IB, +4.1% LH+LX+OS.

-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia, page 26, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10039126#/26

27 October 2014
Our calculation for July, the latest month, shows China outbound travel has recovered slightly – +11.6% after growing only +6.9% the month earlier. YTD has been pulled down to +13.6%. All these are well down on the +18.7% for all-2013.

-Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia, page 12, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10039126#/12

24 October 2014
US updates:
-Hotel occupancy was 70.3% +3.8%, average room rate US$117.91, +5.2%, in Q3.
-Visitors were 7.3mn, +5%, in July.
-Visitors spent US$19.2bn, +6%, in August.

23 October 2014
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.49mn seats, +4.6%, in September.
-Compagnie des Alpes sales were US$877mn, +2.2% - ski US$492mn -1.3%, leisure US$378mn +6.3% - in its year through September. CDA has 36 sites; best-known are Val d’Isere, Parc Asterix, Futuroscope.
A full report on this topic in the November issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

22 October 2014
-The US department of commerce forecasts: 73.9mn visitors, +5.9%, in 2014; 88.3mn visitors in 2019, after an annual average growth of +4.0% over 2014-19.
-US hotel occupancy 65.7% +3.9%, average room rate US$117.17 +5.3%, in September. Source: STR.

An advance summary of the Global Trends Report 2014 by Euromonitor for next month’s World Travel Market – which contains some puzzling comments - is strongly criticised in the Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter.

21 October 2014
-We estimate* there are currently 1.34mn hotel rooms, +20%, in the construction pipeline worldwide. *Extrapolations on STR data.
-US nationals overseas outbound (excluding to Canada, Mexico) 3.3mn, +8%, in July; Europe 1.4mn +6%, Asia 398k +9%.

20 October 2014
Our YTD through June calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +5.4% (all airports +5.9%). Last month: +3.5% (+4.5%).

A review of two new reports* on the China outbound market in the Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter says they leave much to be desired. (*From Hotels.com and Timetric.)

17 October 2014
The July hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 0.7; AsPac -0.7; Europe 0.2; US 2.5. Previous month: 2.1; 1.2; 3.3; 1.8.

16 October 2014
-Copenhagen airport handled 2.3mn passengers, +6.4%, in September.
-Etihad* sold 3.9mn seats, +30.0%, in Q3.
* A full report on this topic in the current issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.
-Frankfurt airport handled 5.9mn passengers, +5.9%, in September.
-London Heathrow airport handled 6.58mn passengers, +0.3%, in September.
-US international air passengers were 115.7mn, +7%, Jan-Jul.
-US travel agencies sold US$70.6bn of air tickets, +4.8%, in September.

A report entitled ‘Points on Pricing’ in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some critical observations on the CWT report, ‘Global Travel Price Outlook, 2015’.

15 October 2014
The September ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 154; AsPac 83; Europe 103; US 277. (Base: Dec 06.)

14 October 2014
AirBnB in New York:
-Economic impact US$632mn over one year. And US$104mn in economic activity outside Manhattan. This does seem to match the comment below – that 82% of ABB’s properties are outside the main hotel areas.
-Hosts. 87% share only the home they live in, and take US$7530/year from ABB. 62% said they use ABB income to help afford staying their homes; see note on this for Barcelona. 50% are freelancers, part-time workers, students.
-Guests. Paid US$31mn in sales taxes while visiting. Length-of-stay averages 6.4 nights, compared to 3.9 for hotel guests. They spend US$880 “at New York businesses” compared to US$690 for the average visitor, twice as much – but the daily difference is the other way round; US$138 daily for ABB, US$177 for all visitors. 82% of properties are outside the main hotel areas, and the ABB guest spends an average US$740 in the neighbourhood where they stay.

13 October 2014
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Aug +4E; Jul +5P; Jun +5.8; May +6.3; Apr +7.5; Mar +2.1; Feb +3.4; Jan +4.5. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7; Sep +2.0. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

A report entitled ‘Russia Wronged’ in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some critical comment on the ITB Berlin report, ‘Russia’s Outbound Trends’.

10 October 2014
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Aug +8E; Jul +7P; Jun +4.9; May +8.4; Apr +7.7; Mar +4.4; Feb +5.6; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9; Sep +8.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

A full report entitled ‘Amadeus Misreads The Future’ in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some critical observations on the Amadeus report, ‘Shaping the Future of Travel’.

9 October 2014
-Air Berlin sold 3.38mn seats, +2.1%, in September.
-Air France-KLM sold 5.7mn seats, -16.3%, in September.
-ACI says passengers handled at airports in Europe was +7.0% in August.
-American RPKs were -0.2% in September.
-Easyjet sold 6.14mn seats, +7.5%, in September.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs were +8.5% in September.
-IATA says member airlines RPKs were +5.9% - international +6.7%, domestic +4.5% - in August.
-Ryanair sold 8.5mn seats, +5%, in September.
-SAS sold 2.7mn seats, +7.3%, in September.
-Southwest RPKs were +5.1% in September.
-United RPKs were -0.2% in September.

8 October 2014
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Aug +5E; Jul +4P; Jun +6.1; May +3.6; Apr +5.7; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.0; Jan +6.3. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5; Sep +4.0. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

7 October 2014
-US nationals outbound outside North America 3.6mn, +7%, in June.
-Singapore airport handled 4.65mn passengers, -0.6%, in August.
-Aeroflot sold 2.37mn seats, +11.7%, in August.

6 October 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Aug +6E; Jul +5P; Jun +5.3; May +6.4; Apr +7.2; Mar +2.4; Feb +5.4; Jan +6.9. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3; Sep +4.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

3 October 2014
An Amadeus study forecasts:
-‘Global travel’ (understood to be essentially visitor arrivals) will grow 5.4%/year over the next 10-years, 2% faster than the world’s annual GDP growth.
-China’s share of outbound travel forecast to be 20% by 2023.
-China will pass the US to become the world’s largest outbound travel market this year and the largest domestic market by 2017. Our data shows China overtook Germany to become largest in 2013 (overtaking the US two years earlier) in terms of trips, and overtaking US in outbound spend in 2013. (Amadeus does not clarify its figures.)
-‘Other large emerging markets, such as Russia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey’ will each also average 5%-plus annual growth over the next 10 years. This is misleading. India is not a large market, and neither is Indonesia – smaller than its tiny neighbour Singapore, for instance.
-‘Western shorthaul business travel’ will reach pre-2008 in 2018.
-Asia will account for 55% of global business travel growth in the next 10 years.

2 October 2014
-Baird/STR hotel stock index 3601, -2.4%, in September.
-IATA says RPKs were +5.9% in August – international +6.7%, domestic +4.5%.
-Visitor arrivals in US 6.0mn, +9%, in June.

A full report entitled Sky Slammer in the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some critical observations on the Skyscanner report entitled Future of Travel 2024.

1 October 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in September. Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +13%; biggest fall, Air NZ -12%. Hotels: Jinjiang +7%, Belmond -9%. Others: TUI +7%, Avis Budget -19%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Southwest +20%; biggest fall, SAS -11%. Hotels: Marriott +7%, InterContinental -4%. Others: China Tvl +32%, Kuoni -12%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 154, US 277, AsPac 83, Eur 103.  Index previous month: WW 159, US 294, AsPac 83, Eur 100.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

30 September 2014
US updates:
-International air passengers 96.1mn, +7%, Jan-Jun.
-Visitors 6.0mn, +9%, in June.

29 September 2014
Market notes from GBTA (Global Business Travel Association) about BT (business travel):
-World BT, now growing at about 4%, will go up to around 6% over the next few years.
-In BT per capita, top is Norway, second Austria.
-In 2017 AsPac will be spending almost US$1 out of every US$2 spend on BT worldwide.
-In BT, India is about 10 years behind China. India was growing slightly faster than China before India’s recent economic slowdown.
-GBTA thought China would become top BT market in 2014, but now it thinks that will happen in 2016.

26 September 2014
The May ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at 2% over the same month in 2013. Previous month -1%.

25 September 2014
Hotels.com reports that visitors in France from the Middle East (no further definition) pay the most on its site for hotel rooms per night – US$262 (at US$1 to €0.77) +9% - the US US$214 +2% , Mexico US$209 +5% , Brazil US$203 -5%, China US$201 -3%. From Europe, Norway US$199 +0%, Iceland US$183 +11%, Russia US$182.
*A full report on this topic in the October issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

24 September 2014
-Dubai airport handled 6.6mn passengers, +10.8%, in August.
-We estimate no-frills-airline Scoot is selling at least 2mn seats annually. (It does not publish this information.) Its Malaysia-based rival, Air Asia X, sold 3.2mn for all-2013.
*A full report on this topic in the October issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

23 September 2014
Hotels.com report on travellers from China:
-97% travel for leisure, 50% for business. (Recipients could give more than one reply.) Hoteliers say 22% combine business and leisure.
-67% make their own arrangements.
-54% travel with their partner and children as companions.
-They travel on vacation for 1-2 weeks, leisure (listed separately) 1.4 weeks, visiting friends or relatives 1.6 weeks.
-59% stay in 3/4-star hotels.
*A full report on this topic in the October issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

22 September 2014
Priceline has become the world’s largest OTA (online travel agency) – just. Its US$25.8bn half-year gross bookings compares with Expedia’s US$25.7bn! Priceline grew at 34%, Expedia at 29%. Expedia is much bigger in the US (4-times), so Priceline bigger outside (2-times).
*A full report on this topic in the October issue of the Net Value report contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

19 September 2014
The June hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 2.1; AsPac 1.2; Europe 3.3; US 1.8. Previous month: 2.5; 2.1; 2.3; 3.0.

18September 2014
Visitor arrivals were 517mn, +4.6%, in the first half, according to the World Tourism Organization. Some details:
-This is slower than annual average 5% since 2010.
-Americas +6%, Asia Pacific +5%, Europe +5%.
-North America +6%, Northeast Asia +7%, South Asia +8%, Northern Europe +8%, Southern Mediterranean +8%.
-WTO forecasts 4.0-4.5% for all-2014, above its average annual +3.8% forecast for 2010-20.

17 September 2014
The August ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 159; AsPac 83; Europe 100; US 294. (Base: Dec 06.)

16 September 2014
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.85mn seats, +3.6%, in August.
-London Heathrow airport handled 7.05mn passengers, +1.3%, in August.
-US nationals outbound travel was 5.9mn, +15%, in May.
-ARC says US travel agencies sold US$7.1bn worth of airline tickets, +1.0%, in August.

15 September 2014
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jul +4E; Jun +4P; May +3.2; Apr +3.9; Mar +1.9; Feb +3.1; Jan +3.8. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7; Sep +2.0; Aug +2.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

12 September 2014
We calculate hotel-room pipeline from Smith Travel Research data for August: World +21%, US +14%, AsPac +32%, Eur +6%.

11 September 2014
-Air Berlin sold 3.47mn seats, +2.7%, in August.
-Copenhagen airport handled 2.44mn passengers, +7.0%, in August.
-Easyjet sold 6.61mn seats, +8.4%, in August.
-Frankfurt airport handled 6.1mn passengers, +5.4%, in August.
-SAS sold 2.6mn seats, +9.1%, in August.
-United RPKs were +0.1% in August.
-Southwest RPKs were +4.9% in August.
-Airport passengers in Europe were +4.6% in July. Source: ACI.
-Air France-KLM sold 7.3mn seats, +2.1%, in August. Its Transavia France 1.3mn +11.3%.
-US: Q1 traveller spending -11.2%; international air passengers to/from US 77.9mn Jan-May, +7% (Europe 20.3mn +5.6%, Asia 11.7mn +4.9%).

10 September 2014
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jul +7E; Jun +6P; May +8.3; Apr +7.7; Mar +4.4; Feb +5.6; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9; Sep +8.1; Aug +7.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

8 September 2014
Paris claims it is the world’s leading visitor city-destination, with 32.3mn arrivals in 2013, of which 15.5mn were international.
  But its claim may be based on measures other than those counts, because nearby London counted around 35mn total – of which 16.7mn were international. And New York counts over 53mn, albeit only 11mn international.
  And in terms of bednights, European Cities Marketing (of which both London and Paris are members) puts London at 51mn compared with 35mn for Paris.

8 September 2014
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jul +4E; Jun +6P; May +4.0; Apr +5.5; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.0; Jan +6.4. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5; Sep +4.0; Aug +6.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

5 September 2014
-Member airlines of AEA (Association of European Airlines) sold 176mn seats, +3.3%, Jan-Jun.
-Aeroflot sold 2.35mn seats, +11.8%, in July. And 13.31mn, +14.3%, YTD.
-Dubai airport passengers 5.16mn, -2.9%, in July.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) RPKs were +8.7% in August.
-Member airlines of IATA (International Air Transport Association) RPKs were +5.3% (international +5.5%, domestic +4.9%) in July. Domestic Russia +9.9% (IATA does not say, but partly because Crimea now designated domestic, not international), India +6.0%, Japan +4.6%, US +3.9%, Australia -1.6%, Brazil 0.7%.
-Ryanair sold 9.4mn seats, +4%, in August.
-US nationals outbound travellers 5.2mn +17% in April, 19.4mn +10% YTD.

4 September 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jul +5E; Jun +5P; May +5.6; Apr +6.2; Mar +2.6; Feb +5.0; Jan +6.4. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3; Sep +4.7; Aug +5.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia, page 6, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10038248#/6

3 September 2014
-Passenger totals through Kuala Lumpur airport appear to reflect MAF (Malaysia Airlines Factor – loss of one flight, shooting down of another). Monthly passengers this year were +20.5% +14.2% +7.1% in Q1, then +10.1% (boosted by change in Easter holiday month) +3.5% +1.7% in Q2.

 

-Some interesting indicators from the latest US outbound travel data. Viz:
-The fast economic growth seems to be causing growth in travel. Total +10% YTD - and +17% in April, the latest month! Time to dust-off those Marketing-to-the-US plans.
-Most of that is still NAm (Canada, Mexico), and most of that is still to Mexico, but +27% in April! For a destination that takes just over half the big total, that is impressive.
-So-called ‘overseas destinations’ also did well: +5% YTD and 10% in April. Europe (the biggest of the ‘overseas’) +7% in April, Asia +8%.
Source: US DMO.

 

-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia, page 26, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10038248#/26

 

2 September 2014
China outbound. We calculate China outbound growth only 14% in the first half, and half that growth rate in June!

Thailand inbound. Some interesting indicators from Thailand’s latest arrivals data. Viz:
-Russia holding up well, despite Russia’s official restrictions on some types of international travel. We suspect this is because a good share of the visitors comes from eastern Russia, and they follow less carefully edicts from Moscow. July only -11% (but YTD still positive, +7%).
-China getting worse (-25% July, -21% YTD).
-Europe/longhaul less bothered about coup than Asia? (Europe +4% YTD, Asia -13%, Oceania -4%).

1 September 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in August. Airlines: biggest growth, Southwest +20%; biggest fall, SAS -11%. Hotels: Marriott +7%, InterContinental -4%. Others: China Tvl +32%, Kuoni -12%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, United +13%; biggest fall, Lufthansa -16%. Hotels: Jinjiang +18%, Belmond -15%. Others: China Tvl +22%, TUI -12%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 159, US 294, AsPac 83, Eur 100.  Index previous month: WW 153, US 277, AsPac 85, Eur 98.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

29 August 2014
Global Business Travel Association about business travel:
-Global BT, now growing at about 4%, will go up to around 6% over the next few years.
-In BT per capita, top is Norway, second Austria.
-In 2017 AsPac will be spending almost US$1 out of every US$2 spend on BT worldwide.
-GBTA thought China would become top BT market in 2014, but now it thinks that will happen in 2016.

28 August 2014
Forecasts:
-The US Federal Aviation Administration forecasts US airlines RPKs will grow 76% over 2013-34 which means +2.8%/year. Seat sales will increase 0.8% from 2013 to 745.5mn in 2014 and 1.15bn in 2034.
-The Pacific Asia Travel Association forecasts visitor arrivals will grow at an average annual rate of 6% over 2013-18.
-CLSA, a finance company, forecasts China outbound will double to 200mn trips by 2020, and spend will increase three-times.
-The US department of commerce forecasts visitor arrivals will grow at an average annual rate of 3.4-4.1% over 2014-18 to get 83.8mn visitors, +20% over 2013.

27 August 2014
Soundbites from Deep Kalra, Group CEO, Make My Trip.
-The big move for us over past two years is how we moved from air and hotel to all travel. Now 46% non-air income; we aim for more than 50%.
-The other move has been to mobile. About 12% of air and hotel bookings.
-US-India is about 10% of our business.
-We are India’s largest online travel company after the railways. We have 10mn visitors, seeing 100mn pages.
-Conversion is the key. Because we do not control the dollar amount because that comes from suppliers.
-Biggest gain is personalisation. If customers register they can get more.
-We have done five M&As. The latest is HotelTravel.com, purely hotels; it has 100k.

26 August 2014
–Carlson Wagonlit Travel transactions were 32.5mn, +2.7%, sales US$14.4bn, +4.2% Jan-Jun.
-Singapore airport handled 4.58mn passengers, +1.0%, in July.
-US international air passengers 61.0mn, +6%, Jan-Apr.

25 August 2014
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in June, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +2.5% for AF+KL, +9.4% BA+IB, +1.4% LH+LX+OS.

22 August 2014
-ARC says the value of airline tickets sold by US-based travel agencies was US$7.5bn +5.2% in July, US$56bn +5.15% Jan-Jul.
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.79mn seats, +4.2%, in July.
-IATA notes: international seats sold +2.4% in June, +3.7% Jan-Jun; premium seat sales +1.8%, economy +2.5% in June.
-The JAL Group sold 273,396 international seats, +1.4%, over its summer peak, August 8-17.
-US nationals international outbound was 6.5mn, +4%, in March (to Europe 1.9mn +2% 13% share, Asia 1.1mn +2% 8%, Oceania 174k +7% 1%).

21 August 2014
The May hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 2.5; AsPac 2.1; Europe 2.3; US 3.0. Previous month: 0.3; 1.3; -2.4; 1.9.

20 August 2014
The June ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 155; AsPac 82; Europe 105; US 278. (Base: Dec 06.)

19 August 2014
Our research indicates bad news for Egypt’s hotel business is getting worse. Over H1 in 2014, occupancy fell a big 29%, see table, meaning an almost-50% fall since 2010.
 (The Arab Spring started in December 2010, and January 2011 in Egypt.)
  In 2013, occupancy increased, meaning these new results wipe out the gain in 2013.
  There was growth in average room rate, of 8% and 16% since 2010. However, this will not make up for the fall in occupancy.

Hotel results in Egypt, Jan-Jun


Item

2014

2013

2012

Occupancy,%

29.9

42.2

38.1

  Growth over prev yr,%

-29.1

10.7

NA

  Growth over 2010,%

-49.0

-28.0

-35.0

ARR,US$*

61.3

56.8

52.2

  Growth over prev yr,%

7.9

9.0

NA

  Growth over 2010,%

15.8

7.3

-1.5

Notes: *ARR = average room rate, at US$1 to E£7.15. Source: Travel Business Analyst.

18 August 2014
France No 1? Yes, No, No.
The presentation of France’s visitor figures is suspicious. Part of the reason is that the sources of arrivals from the Schengen countries in Europe are not registered. Therefore, the figures must be estimates - but the authorities never say that.
  In addition, this year – but not for the first time - the authorities have shown '0.0%' movement for three months running. We are fairly confident in saying, without evidence, that that cannot have happened.
  France's share of the world visitor total has been falling - from 11.4% in 2000 to 7.7% in 2013. And share of Europe’s from 19.9% to 14.9%.
  A measure better than simple visitor arrivals is visitor spend. And here France is third - the US is 2.5-times bigger, and Spain about 10% bigger. France's share of the world visitor spend has fallen from 6.9% in 2000 to 4.8% in 2013. And of Europe’s from 14.2% to 11.5%.
  Another measure is air traffic. Measures are not simple but in terms of seats sold, France is about 13th, and below markets such as Australia, Indonesia, Ireland, and, for instance, about 10x smaller than the US.
  A minister responsible in France has set a 100mn target for visitor arrivals. But this is meaningless because he gave no date to achieve it. But at present growth rates it would take about 15 years to reach - 2030.
  The visitor business in France is in trouble, and the government cannot see it - or does not want to see it.

15 August 2014
-Air Asia group sold 11.3mn seats, +13.0%, Apr-Jun. Air Asia X sold 1.02mn seats, +46.3%, Apr-Jun.
-Air France-KLM sold 7.5mn seats, +1.3%, in July. Its Transavia no-frills-airline 1.2mn +5.4%.
-Airports Council International says passengers in Europe airports were +5.5% Jan-Jun; no figures given.
-Easyjet sold 6.43mn seats, +7.7%, in July.
-Frankfurt airport handled 5.9mn passengers, +2.3%, in July.
-STR has increased its forecast for US hotels occupancy to 63.8%, +2.6%, average room rate US$115.02, +4.2%, in 2014.
-Baird/STR hotel stock index was 3501, -1.1%, in July.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs were +7.1% in July.
-London Heathrow handled 6.97mn passengers, +0.5%, in July.
-Ryanair sold 9.15mn seats, +3.5%, in July.
-Southwest Airlines RPKs were +6.6% in July.
-Swiss sold 7.74mn seats, -0.5%, Jan-Jun.
-United Airlines RPKs were +1.0% in July.
-US international air passengers 44.8mn +5% in Q1; overseas 32.9mn +5% (Europe 10.3mn +3.4%, Asia 7.0mn +4.0%, Oceania 1.0mn +3.8%); New York JFK airport 5.8mn +3.6%, Miami 5.1mn +2.1%, Los Angeles 4.4mn +9.1%.

14 August 2014
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jun +4E; May +3P; Apr +3.2; Mar +1.6; Feb +3.1; Jan +3.8. 2013: Dec +4.6; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7; Sep +2.0; Aug +2.6; Jul +2.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

13 August 2014
From World Air Transport Statistics from IATA (International Air Transport Association) on 2013 showing largest:
-Region. Asia-Pacific 1.012bn seats sold +9.3%, Europe 825.9mn +3.4%, North America 818.9mn +0.7%.
-Within region: AsPac - China 404.2mn +11.8%; Europe – UK 177.9mn +3.7%; North America – US 618.1mn +3.3%.
-Airline - Delta 120.6mn seats sold (no comparison given), Southwest 115.3mn, China Southern 91.5mn.
-City pairs: Hong Kong-Taipei 4.9mn -11.5%, Dublin-London 3.6mn +6.9%, Jakarta-Singapore 3.4mn +8.6%.
-Domestic city pairs: Jeju-Seoul 9.58mn +1.4%, Sapporo-Tokyo 9.17mn +4.7%, Fukuoka-Tokyo 8.34mn +9.3%.
-Alliance. Star 26.6% share of RPKs, Sky 20.1%, One 15.4%.
-Others: 1100 more airport-pairs, now 50,000; 600,000 more flights, now 31.5mn; air travel prices -7.4%; 2% of fossil fuels burned, or 12% of fossil fuels burned by all transportation.

12 August 2014
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jun +7E; May +8P; Apr +7.7; Mar +4.4; Feb +5.6; Jan +8.1. 2013: Dec +5.6; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9; Sep +8.1; Aug +7.8; Jul +4.2. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

11 August 2014
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jun +4E; May +4P; Apr +5.5; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.0; Jan +6.4. 2013: Dec +3.9; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5; Sep +4.0; Aug +6.1; Jul +1.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

8 August 2014
Aviation updates:
-IATA (International Air Transport Association) member airline RPKs were +4.7% in June. International +5.5% (Europe +5.6%, Asia Pacific +4.9%, North America +3.1%), Domestic +3.4% (Australia +2.4%. China +6.6%, India +4.2%, Japan +4.1%, Russia, +12.0%, US +2.0%). And +5.9% International, +6.4% Domestic +5.1% Jan-Jun.
-The JAL Group showed 257,418 international seats sold, +0.7%, for the peak summer, August 8-17 this year. And 954,896 domestic, +1.5%.
-SAS sold 2.4mn seats in July, + 10.6%.

7 August 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jun +5E; May +5P; Apr +5.9; Mar +2.5; Feb +5.0; Jan +6.4. 2013: Dec +5.1; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3; Sep +4.7; Aug +5.7; Jul +2.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

6 August 2014
Research from PhoCusWright, the travel research company:
-Expects by 2015, 48% of France’s leisure and unmanaged business travel will be booked online.
-Says 44% of US leisure travellers own a tablet, and an additional 40% (we presume of those who do not) plan to buy one this year.
  PCW puts smartphone penetration at 75%, adding what our Net Value has been saying for 12 months – than the measure of booking device used has become of less value, because travellers might use more than one.
  In a similar way, time spent ‘online’ is also a redundant measure – because most are ‘online’ constantly, and ‘access’ sites or activity as required.
-Forecasts mobile travel bookings will triple over the next two years, to reach US$39.5mn by 2015. That would be 25% of the US online travel market in 2015; it was 2% in 2011.
-Forecasts that European tour operator online bookings will be US$14.0bn (at US$1 to €0.72) in 2015. It called that “modest growth”, but at 4.7% average in both years, this is well below normal growth rates in this sector.
-Forecasts mobile travel bookings in China, India, Japan will grow an average annual 59.6% from US$4.6bn in 2012 to US$18.7bn in 2015.
  China's mobile gross bookings will be US$6.4bn in 2015, representing 21% of the country's online travel market. In India, where smartphone penetration is among the lowest in the region, PCW forecasts 10% of online travel bookings will be booked via mobile by 2015.

* A full report on these topics in the current issue of the Net Value monthly-report contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

 

5 August 2014
Tiger Air gives tigers a bad name
Yesterday, we suggested that the Scoot airline should be shut down and folded into Tiger Airways – both part, at different levels, of the Singapore Airlines group (SIAG).
  That suggestion might have left the impression that Tiger is strong and Scoot is weak. We meant no more than that the two should be merged.
  Tiger has actually been a disastrous business. Over the past four years, there has been:
-near shutdown following numerous flight delays, cancellations, etc;
-shutdown for about six weeks of its Australian division by the authorities for safety reasons;
-start and shutdown of its Indonesia division within a year;
-sale of its Philippines division to its competitor Cebu Pacific. Really!
-sale of its Australia division to Virgin Australia, competitor to its associate airline, SIA. Really!
-change of name (presumably to hide the negative image) from Tiger Airways to Tigerair, and downplaying the ‘tiger’ name. Really!
  Such stunning continuing incompetence must be rare in aviation.
  It is time that Singapore Airlines moved in. Having said that, SIAG’s business skills have not been obvious of late, as though it does not know how to handle the new realities of the airline business.

4 August 2014
Singapore Airlines in trouble
One quarter’s (bad) results would not really warrant a change in strategy. But two?
  Singapore Airlines (SIA) should at least take a good look at what it is doing – corporately-speaking – and see if there is a need to make changes. Total revenue was down in the last two Qs – a bad sign. By -1.0% Jan-Mar and -4.1% Apr-Jun. And operating loss grew 36.4% Jan-Mar and operating profit fell 51.7% Apr-Jun.
  For us, the changes needed were included in a special report on the SIA group in the December 2013 issue of our Travel Business Analyst newsletter. In essence, the SIA group needs to:
-Shut down Scoot, and merge its operations into Tiger.
-Increase its ownership in Tiger, to at least 51%, and rationalise aircraft fleet (such as Scoot’s too-big ex-SIA B777s).
-Expand Silk into an LCA*, which means operating on some medium- and long-haul routes, sometimes in competition with SIA. (It might even be able to take on some of Scoot’s B777s – although we think they are probably too big for most routes, at least to begin with.)
  Not mentioned in the analyses of SIA recent results is the damage that we see Emirates doing to SIA’s business, and even its business model – which, ironically, Emirates copied.
  Plus the fact that total traffic into SIA’s main point in Europe, the UK, is falling. In fact, that may be a statistical quirk. Because, say, an Emirates passenger flying London-Dubai and then connecting for Dubai-Singapore (or wherever), would not show up in statistics as a UK-Singapore passenger, but UK-Dubai.
  Is SIA management strong enough to make such important decisions? There are not good signs. With its Virgin Atlantic 49% share, for instance, we had been saying for seven years that the alliance was not working. SIA management was in denial for another five years before admitting they wanted to sell.
  And note also that SIA did not give a presentation this year on its Apr-Jun results – which usually specifically shows what is up and down, and by what percentage. It produced just an SGX announcement and a news release. Hold your head down when you have done something wrong?
*LCA = low-cost-airline. (Not a no-frills-airline.) An full-service-airline but with lower operating costs (cheaper longer-hours flight-deck crew, younger/new longer-hours cabin crew, tighter cost control (twinned 3-star hotel rooms, for instance), fewer fare types, which may have first and business cabins, and which allows bookings through travel agencies etc.) Usually similar to the parent airline, but a different name, and competition against parent airline allowed.)

1 August 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in July. Airlines: biggest growth, United +13%; biggest fall, Lufthansa -16%. Hotels: Jinjiang +18%, Belmond -15%. Others: China Tvl +22%, TUI -12%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Malaysia +14%; biggest fall, Lufthansa -19%. Hotels: Belmond +10%, Melia -4%. Others: Orbitz +20%, Thomas Cook -18%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 153, US 277, AsPac 85, Eur 98.  Index previous month: WW 155, US 278, AsPac 82, Eur 105.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

31 July 2014
Aviation updates:
-Aeroflot sold 2.13mn seats, +10.9% in June, and 11.0mn +14.9% Jan-Jun.
-The Aeroflot Group sold 3.37mn seats, +9.5%, in June, and 15.7mn +10.8% Jan-Jun. The group’s no-frills-airline, Dobrolet, sold 19.1k seats at 83.1% seat factor, in its first month, Jun.
-London Heathrow airport handled 35.1mn passengers, +1.9%, Jan-Jun.
*A full report on some half-year results in the September issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

30 July 2014
Aviation updates:
-AF-KLM RPKs were +2.8% Apr-Jun, and +2.5% Jan-Jun. Its hybrid subsidiary Transavia RPKs were +6.0% Apr-Jun, and +6.9% Jan-Jun.
-Easyjet sold 17.9mn seats, +9.4%, Jan-Jun.
-JAL Group international RPKs were +5.1%, domestic +2.2%, Apr-Jun.
-Ryanair sold 24.3mn seats, +4.6%, Apr-Jun.
*A full report on some half-year results in the September issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

29 July 2014
The March ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at -1% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +4%.

28 July 2014
Airport updates for June:
-Dubai handled 5.07mn passengers, -8.5%, and 34.7mn +6.2% Jan-Jun.
-Singapore handled 4.65mn passengers, -0.3%, and 26.6mn +1.4% Jan-Jun.

-Link to Foxtrots blog on Adrian Zecha, Aman Resorts: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/07/28/aman-zecha-part-2/

25 July 2014
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in May, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -1.4% for AF+KL, +8.3% BA+IB, +2.8% LH+LX+OS.

24 July 2014
It is not working for Macau. We have said this before, but all those new hotel rooms, meetings facilities, exhibitions, conferences, etc, are not pulling in visitors from markets other than gamblers from China. Half-year data shows total +8%, but it’s all China - +15%. Even Hong Kong was -6%, and non-CN/HK -1%.

end

 

 


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Current Issues...

Main contents in current issues of our newsletters and reports:

Travel Business Analyst, Asia Pacific: Air passengers into AsPac. Medical mystery tours. Plus: Market Monitor; World Travel Industry Index; ZERO; Market Headlines; Market Outlook; and 20 regular tables of market data.


Travel Business Analyst, Europe: No-frills-airlines updates. Pisa problem. Europe outbound and inbound. Plus: Market Monitor; World Travel Industry Index; ZERO; Extracts from Net Value or People-in-Travel; Market Headlines; and 16 regular tables of market data.


Net Value: Q3 for Expedia, Priceline; Magic Event; others.


People-in-Travel: Stefan Pichler; Arief Yahya; others.


Foxtrots/Trottings (recent): Wrong – Japan’s DMO, Malaysia Airlines; Air France - bad to worse; Trends – China/India outbound.


ZERO (occasional): WTO - together we fail; Electric vehicles; United Nations on climate.

 

Market Data