16 January 2012
Following are destination visitor-arrival (VA) counts from last week’s Asean Tourism Forum in Manado, North Sulawesi, Indonesia. (When data is rounded, this is how it was presented. Some totals and growth are results of extrapolations by Travel Business Analyst.)
[] Brunei. All-2011 222,000 air VAs, up 27%. Forecast for 2012 is a 15% increase, which would take it to 255,000.
[] Cambodia. VA all-2011 2.8mn, up 16%. Forecast for 2012 is 3.2mn, up 14.3%.
[] Indonesia. VA all-2011 7.6mn, up 8.5%. Forecast for 2012 is 8mn, which would be a growth of 8.2%.
[] Lao. VA all-2011 estimate 2.7mn, up 10%. No forecast for 2012; we estimate 9%.
[] Malaysia. Problems with supply of data from immigration department to DMO. Estimated VAs for all-2011 of 24.7mn, which would be a rounded 0.5% increase. Forecast VA for 2012 is 25mn, up 1.2%.
[] Myanmar. Some uncertainty over 2011 data on whether the figure, 386,000, which the DMO says is 25-30% increase (our calculations indicate 24.1%), is an estimate for the calendar year or, the usual period for the destination’s data, Apr-Mar. Forecast for 2012 is another 25-30% increase, which would take the total to 482-501,000. However, these exclude the just-opened Naypyitaw gateway, which on the basis of early counts, may handle about 50,000 visitors this year. Some would be instead of Yangon.
[] Philippines. VA Jan-Nov up 12.7%, which would make all-year total 3.8mn. Forecast for 2012 is 4.2mn, up 10.5%. 
[] Singapore. Jan-Oct VA growth was 14.3%, which would make full-year totals 13.3mn. No forecast for 2012; we estimate 9%.
[] Thailand. VA all-2011 19mn, up 20%. Forecast for 2012 is 19.5mn, up 26%.
[] Vietnam. VA all-2011 up 18%, to 6mn. Forecast for 2012 is 6.5mn, up 8.3%.
*A report is planned in the February issue of Travel Business Analyst on this topic.

13 January 2012
Airline results for all-2011:
-The Lufthansa Group sold 106.3mn seats, up 7.5%. Capacity (ASKs) increased 9.8%, and traffic (RPKs) 7.0%.
-Ryanair sold 76.4mn seats, up 5%.
-Southwest Airlines traffic increased 6.4%, on capacity up 4.9%. Full-year load factor was 80.8%, up 1.1pt.

12 January 2012
STR says 373 hotels with 38,409 rooms opened in the US in 2011. That represents a 0.5% increase in room supply.

11 January 2012
Airline results in December:
-Air France-KLM capacity (ASKs) increased 6.3% and traffic (RPKs) 7.5%. Seat sales were 6.11mn, up 11.7%.
-American Airlines capacity dropped 1.2%, while traffic fell 0.9% - international capacity up 3.4% with traffic up 3.7%.
-IAG (which is British and Iberia) increased traffic 12.2% on capacity up 11.5%. Premium traffic increased 13.6%, non-premium 12.0%.
-United Continental traffic fell 0.7% on capacity down 0.1%.

10 January 2012
Airports run by BAA (originally British Airports Authority) handled 108.5m passengers, up 4.4% in 2011. Its main airport, London Heathrow counted 69.4mn.

9 January 2012
The new Golden Kawanua Exhibition Hall, venue for ATF 2012, expects 1400 Travex delegates to Manado later this week, 13-15 January. Pre-event registration statistics indicate that there will be 1000 exhibitors, 390 buyers, and 100 media delegates.
  The exhibitors will be in 438 booths and represent 390 companies from the 10 Asean destinations. Largest is Indonesia with 112 booths, then Thailand with 92. New buyer markets - Bulgaria, Egypt, Kuwait, and New Zealand. 48% of buyers from Asia Pacific, 38% from Europe.
  Speakers at the pre-Travex conference including two big names, for ATF -  Taleb Rifai, head of the WTO, and Martin Craigs, new head of PATA.

6 January 2012
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Oct +5E; Sep +7E; Aug +7E; Jul +10P; Jun +6.0; May +5.3; Apr +7.7; Mar +2.3; Feb +4.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

5 January 2012
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Oct +3E; Sep +5E; Aug +4E; Jul +5P; Jun +7.5; May +5.3; Apr +17.7; Mar +4.7; Feb +4.6; Jan +4.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

4 January 2012
The November ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 73; AsPac 90; Europe 45. (Base: Dec 06.)

3 January 2012
First glance through travel stock prices indicate biggest gainer in Europe in 2011 was EADS (+38%), biggest loser Air France-KLM (-71%). In Asia Pacific, gainer Air Asia (+49%), loser India’s Jet Airways (-77%). In US, gainer Wyndham Hotels (+27%), loser American (-96%). Full report due in February issues of Travel Business Analyst – which will also link those moves above to the local stockmarket moves.

2 January 2012
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Oct +4E; Sep +6E; Aug +5E; Jul +6P; Jun +5.7; May +5.8; Apr +11.2; Mar +4.2; Feb +5.5; Jan +6.6. 2010: Dec +4.2; Nov +7.2. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

30 December 2011
PhoCusWright reports that Asia Pacific represents 30% of the global travel market but only 21% of online revenue.

29 December 2011
The August ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +10% over the same month in 2010. Previous month +10%.

28 December 2011
The annual Asean Tourism Forum is due to take place next January 9-15. ATF comprises two events – meetings of various Asean official and travel bodies, and the main Travex travel exhibition over January 13-15.
  The event is organised, as most years, by TTG Asia – which organises travel events as well as publishing travel trade titles.
  The location for ATF is Manado, one of Indonesia’s diving locations.
  There are expected to be 1000 exhibitors for 450 booths. Of the exhibitors, 30% are new. Buyer registrations currently total 900 from 55 markets, of which 400 will be hosted. In addition there are expected to be 100 international and local media.
  Some measures are different from those reported for the event held in January this year in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. TTG Asia reported 1000 exhibitors for 400 booths, 840 buyers, and 150 media.
  The event this year is the 31st. Each year the hosting of ATF is rotated, although Myanmar declined last time. Next host destination, for ATF 2013, is due to be Lao.

27 December 2011
WTO (the World Tourism Organization) forecasts an average annual growth in arrivals of 3.3% over 2010-30. In numbers, arrivals are expected to total 1bn in 2012 and then 1.8bn in 2030. (On that basis, we calculate 2bn would be reached in 2033.)
* (Read a full report on this topic in the December issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter.)

26 December 2011
Our September calculation of seats sold by ‘group airlines’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from AEA data, for AF+KL+AZ, BA+IB, LH+LX+BD+SN+OS, shows: +8.1% -1.8% +5.4% (‘parent’ airlines, AF BA LH, +7.4% +3.4% +5.3%).

23 December 2011
China’s outbound travel market is becoming even more valuable. We estimate that China outbound increased 21% through Q3, and Q3 at 29%. Official data – for the full year – is usually not available until March of the following year at the earliest.
* (Read a full report on this topic in the December issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter.)

22 December 2011
ETOA (European Tour Operators Association) has reinforced our Big Event Blues theory. ETOA members (who handle 2mn people annually in London) expect a downturn in 2012 in the UK, particularly closer to the July and August peak months for the Summer Olympic Games in London*. Downturn varies between 20% and 60%, but 95% during the Games.
* (Read a full report on this topic in the December issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter.)

21 December 2011
Our YTD through August calculation of international passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +3.9% (all airports +9.2%). Last month: +5.6% (+9.4%).

20 December 2011
Pegasus Solutions reports:
-Average room rates increased 4.0% in November, +3.2% YTD, +2.7% October.  
-For leisure-travel, worldwide hotel-bookings grew 6.0%, compared with 4.8% in October.
-For corporate-travel, worldwide hotel-bookings grew 5.4%, compared with 4.0% in October.

19 December 2011
Cathay Pacific (including Dragonair) in November: 2.27mn seat sales, up 4.2%, on an 8.6% increase in capacity (ASKs). YTD: +2.5% seat sales on +9.2% capacity.

16 December 2011
The September hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World +3.6; AsPac +4.1; Europe +3.4; US +3.4. Previous month: -1.7; +2.1; -9.6; +2.3.

15 December 2011
TUI Group in the year through October reports turnover up 7% to €17.5bn. Customer numbers in what it calls Mainstream, a business travel segment, increased 4% to 20mn customers.

14 December 2011
US airlines in November:
-American (currently in Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection) traffic (RPKs) down 1.7% on capacity (ASKs) down 4.0%.
-Delta traffic down 1.9% on capacity down 4.1%.
-Southwest (with AirTran; taken over in May) traffic up 2.5% on capacity up 0.7%.  Seat factor 81.6%, up 1.4pts.
-Spirit (the minimalist low-fare-airline) traffic up 5.2% on capacity up 3.8%.
-United Continental traffic down 3.6% on capacity down 4.0%.
-US Airways traffic up 3.4% on capacity down 0.6%.

13 December 2011
The October ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 73; AsPac 94; Europe 45. (Base: Dec 06.)

12 December 2011
Europe airlines in November:
-Air France-KLM traffic (RPKs) up 2.5% on capacity (ASKs) up 1.7%. Americas traffic up 6.2% on capacity up 3.4%; Asia +0.3% +0.1%; Europe +3.6% +4.3%.
-IAG (International Airline Group; British and Iberia) traffic up 2.1% on capacity up 2.4%. Premium traffic up 4.6%, non-premium up 1.6%.
-Ryanair 4.68mn seat sales, down 8%. Seat factor 80%, flat.
-SAS Group 2.3mn seat sales up 4.6%. Traffic up 0.8% on capacity up 2.6%.

9 December 2011
PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association) reports that visitor arrivals in Asia Pacific in September increased 5.7%. South Asia +11%; Southeast Asia +9%; Northeast Asia +5%; Pacific +1%. YTD by region: South Asia +14%; Southeast Asia +12%; Northeast Asia +4%; Pacific +1%.

8 December 2011
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Sep +7E; Aug +7E; Jul +10P; Jun +6.0; May +5.3; Apr +7.7; Mar +2.3; Feb +4.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

7 December 2011
Airport results in November:
-BAA (originally British Airports Authority) handled 7.8mn passengers, down 0.9%. At its largest airport, London Heathrow, it handled 5.2mn, down 0.5%.
-Fraport handled 6.3mn passengers, up 6.4%. At its largest airport, Frankfurt, it handled 4.3mn passengers, up 4.3%.   

6 December 2011
Europe airlines in September:
-Air Berlin sold 3.68mn seats, up 1%; seat factor 82.8%, up 0.1%. YTD seat sales 27.7mn, up 4%; seat factor 78.6% up 2.5%.
-Lufthansa sold 49.4mn seats, up 12.1%. Traffic (RPKs) was up 10% on capacity (ASKs) up 13%.
-Lufthansa Group sold 80.7mn seats, up 8.1%, over Jan-Sep. Traffic was up 7.9% on capacity up 10.6%.

5 December 2011
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Sep +5E; Aug +4E; Jul +5P; Jun +7.5; May +5.3; Apr +17.7; Mar +4.7; Feb +4.6; Jan +4.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

2 December 2011
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Sep +6E; Aug +5E; Jul +6P; Jun +5.7; May +5.8; Apr +11.2; Mar +4.2; Feb +5.5; Jan +6.6. 2010: Dec +4.2; Nov +7.2; Oct: +8.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

1 December 2011
IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports total traffic (RPKs) up 3.6% in October and international up 4.6%. International by region: Asia Pacific traffic up 3.8% on capacity up 7.5%; Europe traffic up 6.4% on capacity up 8.1%; North America traffic down 1.9% on flat capacity.

30 November 2011
Russia’s Transaero sold 7.25mn seats, up 28.5%, over January-October.

29 November 2011
The July ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +10% over the same month in 2010. Previous month +10%.

28 November 2011
AAPA (Association of Asia Pacific Airlines) reports 16.5mn international seat sales, up 5.0%, in October. International traffic (RPKs) grew 5.1% on capacity (ASKs) up 8.8%.

25 November 2011
Our August calculation of seats sold by ‘group airlines’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from AEA data, for AF+KL+AZ, BA+IB, LH+LX+BD+SN+OS, shows: +4.9% -3.6% +6.1% (‘parent’ airlines, AF BA LH, +2% +4% +8%).

24 November 2011
Leisure travel bookings in October increased 4.7%, according to Pegasus Solutions. In North America it was +5.8%. Rates were up 2.5%, and +4.3% in North America.
  Corporate travel bookings increased 4.0%, and +3.3% in North America. Rates increased 3.0%, and +4.0% in North America. 

23 November 2011
Asian airline results:
-In H1-2011/12 (Apr-Sep) JAL Group international traffic (RPKs) fell 34.9% on capacity (ASKs) down 28.2%. Domestic traffic fell 22.7% on capacity down 23.0%.
-In October, Singapore Airlines’ seat sales increased 0.2%, traffic increased 0.7%, on capacity up 4.6%.

22 November 2011
Airlines in October:
-Air France-KLM traffic (RPK) up 5.7% on capacity (ASK) up 6.1%.
-Delta traffic -3.8% on capacity -3.1%.
-SAS Group traffic +2.6% on capacity +3.3%.
-United Continental traffic -5.1% on capacity -3.4%.

21 November 2011
Our YTD through June calculation of international passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +5.6% (all airports +9.4%). Last month: +5.0% (+8.0%).

18 November 2011
Air Asia Q3 results*:
-Indonesia 1.40mn seats sold, up 29.9%; load factor 78%, down 3pt.
-Malaysia division 4.34mn +7.6%; 77% -1pt.
-Thailand 1.61mn +18.1%; 80% +4pt.
-Total (excluding AAX) 7.35mn +13.5%; 78% 0pt.
-Air Asia X 620k +21.3%; 80% +6pt.
* (Read a full report on this topic in the November issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter monthly-report.)

17 November 2011
The August hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World -1.7; AsPac +2.1; Europe -9.6; US +2.3. Previous month: +2.3; +6.4; -1.6; +2.0.

16 November 2011
Airport results:
-Airports Council International says passenger traffic at airports in Europe increased 7.0% in September.
-BAA (which originally was British Airports Authority) reports passenger traffic at its airports fell 1.3% in October. Most was domestic - down 9.9%. At its main airport, London Heathrow, passenger traffic fell 1.3%.
-Fraport - owner of Frankfurt airport and others* – counted 76mn passengers, up 9.8%, Jan-Sep at its majority-owned airports. Frankfurt counted 42.7mn, up 6.6%.
  At Frankfurt in September passengers increased 4% to 5.3mn.
*Antalya, Turkey; Burgas, Bulgaria; Lima, Peru; Varna, Bulgaria.

15 November 2011
STR forecasts for the US hotel industry in 2012:
-Occupancy +0.2% to 60.0% (expected for 2011 - +4.0% 59.9%).
-ARR +3.7% to US$105.29 (+3.6% US$101.58).
-Roomnight sales +1.1% (+4.7%).
-Roomnights available +0.9% (+0.7%).

14 November 2011
The September ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 66; AsPac 83; Europe 42. (Base: Dec 06.)

11 November 2011
US total outbound travel fell 2% in 2010 to 60.3mn. Travel to destinations other than Canada and Mexico fell 6%. Spending by US residents travelling abroad increased 4% to US$102.8bn.

10 November 2011
Low-fare-airline results in October:
-Easyjet seat sales up 8% to 4.94mn.
-Ryanair seat sales up 4% to 7.27mn.
-Southwest (including AirTran) traffic (RPKs) up 3.5%.

9 November 2011
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Aug +7E; Jul +9E; Jun +6P; May +5.3; Apr +7.7; Mar +2.3; Feb +4.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

8 November 2011
Visitor arrivals increased 4.5% over Jan-Aug according to the WTO. By region: Europe +6%; Asia +6%; Americas +5%.
  Part of Europe’s growth is due to disturbances in North Africa. WTO says Southern Europe (+8%) benefitted from a shift of travel away from the Middle East (-9%) and North Africa (-15%).
  WTO expects total-2011 arrivals will have increased 4.0-4.5%, and for 2012, 3-4%.
  For spending Jan-Aug this year, the top-2 showed fast growth - USA +11%, Spain +10%.

7 November 2011
Emirates, in the first half of its fiscal year ending March 2012, reported traffic (RPKs) up 5.7% on a faster growth in capacity (ASKs), up 8.2%, causing a 1.9-point drop in seat factor.

4 November 2011
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Aug +5E; Jul +5E; Jun +7P; May +5.3; Apr +17.7; Mar +4.7; Feb +4.6; Jan +4.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

3 November 2011
AAPA (Association of Asia Pacific Airlines) reports 16.0mn international seat sales, up 5.4%, in September. Traffic (RPKs) was up 5.2% on capacity (ASKs) up 6.8%.

2 November 2011
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Aug +5E; Jul +6E; Jun +6P; May +5.8; Apr +11.2; Mar +4.2; Feb +5.5; Jan +6.6. 2010: Dec +4.2; Nov +7.2; Oct: +8.4; Sep +8.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

1 November 2011
North American leisure travel bettered world travel bookings in September by 1.4%, according to Pegasus Solutions.
  Europe’s leisure reservations fell 0.5%. The corporate market registered a 6.1% increase in GDS bookings. Rates increased 3.5%.

31 October 2011
CWT (Carlson Wagonlit Travel), a business travel agency group, has released its 2012 Travel Price Forecast. Some findings:
[] Asia Pacific. Air fares up 3.1-3.8% in 2012. Hotel rates, a range from -1.9% to +2.1% in H1, and -0.9% to 0% in H2.
[] North America. Airline fares up 3.5-4.1% in 2012. Hotel rates up 2.4-3.1%
In H1 2012 and up 2.6-3.4% in H2.
[] EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa). Air fares up 2.1-3.7% in 2012.
Hotel rates up 0.2-0.9% in H1, and 0.1-0.8% in H2.

28 October 2011
The June ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +10% over the same month in 2010. Previous month +10%.

27 October 2011
AF/KL combined traffic increased 9.3% in September, on capacity up 7.5%. On the Americas, traffic +12.2%, capacity +10.8%; Asia +9.7% +9.4%; Europe +9.5% +7.3%.

26 October 2011
BAA’s airports handled 1.0% more passengers in September. London Heathrow, its largest, increased 1.4%.

25 October 2011
Our July calculation of seats sold by ‘group airlines’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from AEA data, for AF+KL+AZ, BA+IB, LH+LX+BD+SN+OS, shows: +6.5% -2.7% +8.5% (‘parent’ airlines, AF +4% BA +5% LH +10%).

24 October 2011
In September, Easyjet sold 5.18mn seats, up 8.5%.

21 October 2011
Our YTD through May calculation of international passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +5.0% (all airports +8.0%). Last month: +28.0% (+31.2%).

20 October 2011
JetBlue traffic increased 7.6% in September, on capacity up 8.7%.

19 October 2011
Aeroflot – Russian Airlines traffic (RPKs) in August increased 20.3% to 4.37bn. International increased 21.3% to 2.91bn, domestic up18.4% to 1.45bn.
 
18 October 2011
Over Jan-Sep, Swiss sold 11.6mn seats, up 9.5%. In Europe, RPKs increased 12% on capacity (ASKs) up 10%.

17 October 2011
The July hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World +2.3; AsPac +6.4; Europe -1.6; US +2.0. Previous month: +2.9; +2.7; +3.5; +2.6.

14 October 2011
STR puts the US hotel development pipeline at 2951 hotels with 315,668 rooms in August, down 12.4%.
  In Asia Pacific the pipeline comprises 1290 hotels with 310,230 rooms. Most are in Shanghai (10,838 rooms), Bangkok (5216), Delhi (5088), Beijing (4746), Manila (3015).
  In Europe the pipeline comprises 819 hotels with 132,234 rooms. Most are in Azerbaijan (up 63.3% to 1601 rooms), Kazakhstan (+25.1% to 1245), Russia (+20.4% to 16,236), UK (+8.2% to 39,836), Romania (+7.6% to 1965).

13 October 2011
The August ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 78; AsPac 78; Europe 100. (Base: Dec 06.)

12 October 2011
In terms of outbound travel, Asia Pacific is expected to grow at 5.0% annually, 2010-30, according to the WTO (World Tourism Organization).
  Europe is expected to grow at 2.5% annually.

11 October 2011
International visitor arrivals are forecast to reach 1.8bn by 2030 according to the WTO (World Tourism Organization). Over 2010-30, arrivals are expected to increase an average annual 3.3%.
  At this pace, arrivals would top 1bn in 2012.
  Asia Pacific is forecast to increase its share from 22% in 2010 to 30% in 2030, Europe from 51% to 41%, and the Americas from 16% to 14%. Northeast Asia would be the most visited sub-region, representing 16% of arrivals, and taking over from Southern and Mediterranean Europe, with a 15% share in 2030.

10 October 2011
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Jul +7E; Jun +6E; May +5P; Apr +7.7; Mar +2.3; Feb +4.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

7 October 2011
Ryanair in September: seat sales 7.25mn, up 6%, seat load factor 85%, down 1%. This includes all booked/sold seats, even if passengers did not fly.

6 October 2011
ERA (European Regions Airline Association), which has 65 airline members, reports 7.1% growth in seat sales January-June (growth was 2.9% in January-June 2010). Average seat capacity increased 1 seat to 77.

5 October 2011
Seat sales for Etihad Airways’ Q3 were 2.25mn, up 18%. Before March it plans to open Abu Dhabi to Chengdu/Dusseldorf/Maldives/Nairobi/Seychelles/Shanghai. Aircraft due in 2012 is not substantial – 4x B777-300ER, 3x A320-200.

4 October 2011
-US airlines in September:
-American: traffic (RPKs) up 1.9% on a capacity (ASKs) up 0.3%. International +2.2% on +2.4%, domestic +1.7% on -1.1%.
-Delta: traffic down 0.9% on a 2.2% decrease in capacity. International -2.8% on -0.6%, domestic +0.5% on -3.3%.
-US Airways: traffic down 0.9% on a 2.7% decrease in capacity.

3 October 2011
IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports air traffic (RPKs) up 4.5% in August. International +6.2% - Europe +7.9%, North America +2.9%, Asia Pacific +5.3%. Domestic +3.6% - US -0.3%, Japan -12.4%, China +2.8%, India +19.7%.

30 September 2011
Visitor arrivals in Spain in August increased 9.4% to 7.64mn. Market-source patterns are variable. In August, growth in the top-3 was inverse to their size (UK up just under 8%, France +8%, Germany +12%), but YTD patterns are reversed – UK +9%, France +4%, Germany +1%.

29 September 2011
PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association) reports that visitor arrivals in Asia Pacific in July increased 7%. By sub-region: South Asia +14%; Southeast Asia +12%; Northeast Asia +4%; Pacific +1%.
  YTD growth for the region was 5%. By sub-region: South Asia +14%; Southeast Asia +11%; Northeast Asia +6%; Pacific -3%.

28 September 2011
AAPA (Association of Asia Pacific Airlines) reports 17.0mn international air seat sales, up 3.9% in August. Traffic (RPKs) was up 5.3%, on capacity (ASKs) up 6.0%, resulting in a 0.6-point fall in the seat load factor to 79.3%.

27 September 2011
Pegasus Solutions reports that worldwide business-travel hotel-bookings grew 10.2% in August; it was up 5.8% in July. Average room rates increased 4.7% in August.
  For leisure-travel, worldwide hotel-bookings grew 4.2%, compared with 3.1% in July. Rate increased 3.7% in August.

26 September 2011
Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) seat sales in August were 2.51mn, up 3.6%; Capacity (ASKs) was up 7.0%. YTD seat sales up 2%; capacity was up 9.1%.

23 September 2011
IATA (International Air Transport Association) increased its member profits forecast for this year – up from US$4.0bn projected in June to US$6.9bn. For 2012, IATA projects profits to fall to US$4.9bn on revenues of US$632bn for a net margin of 0.8%.

22 September 2011
JetBlue in August: traffic (RPKs) up 5.8% on a 4.6% increase in capacity (ASKs).

21 September 2011
American in August: traffic (RPKs) down 0.4% on 1.2% fall in capacity (ASKs). International: traffic up 3.0% on capacity up 1.1%.

20 September 2011
The May ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +10% over the same month in 2010. Previous month +2%.

16 September 2011
The June hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World +2.9; AsPac +2.7; Europe +3.5; US +2.6. Previous month: +4.7; +3.3; +8.1; +2.6.

15 September 2011
Airport results:
-Overall passenger traffic at Europe airports increased 6.9% in July. YTD passenger traffic increased 9.0%. Source: Airports Council International.
-Frankfurt handled 5.35mn passengers, up 2.5%, in August. YTD total was 37.5mn, up 7.0%.
-London Heathrow handled 6.6mn passengers up 0.7%, in August.

14 September 2011
Berlin says MICE roomnights in the first half increased 15%, MICE participants increased 2%.

13 September 2011
The July ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 87; AsPac 118; Europe 84. (Base: Dec 06.)

12 September 2011
Airline results in August:
-IAG (British and Iberia) traffic (RPKs) up 2.2% on capacity (ASKs) up 2.1%. Premium traffic up 8.7%; non-premium up 1.4%.
-SAS Group's traffic up 0.8% on capacity up 2.4%.

9 September 2011
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Jul +7E; Jun +6E; May +5P; Apr +7.7; Mar +2.3; Feb +4.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

8 September 2011
The WTO (World Tourism Organisation) reports that visitor arrivals* increased 4.5% in the first half; that is substantially slower than H1 2010 (which was about 6.5%).
  For geographical regions: Europe +6% - partly from the redistribution of travel to destinations in Southern and Mediterranean Europe (+7%) from North Africa (-13%) and the Middle East (-11%). The Americas +6%, Asia Pacific 5%.
  Despite the changes, the WTO maintains its forecast of +4-5% for all-2011.
(Data from WTO; comments Travel Business Analyst. The WTO splits results into ‘advanced’ and ‘emerging’ economies – but this has little value in the travel business, so we do not report this.)

7 September 2011
Airline results in August:
-Easyjet seat sales up 7% to 5.54mn.
-Ryanair seat sales up 6% to 8.14mn.
-Southwest RPKs increased 3.9% to 14.9bn.

6 September 2011
IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports air traffic (RPKs) up 5.9% in July (international +7.3%, domestic +3.5%).
  If the industry had grown at pre-recession rate of 8%, international markets would be 14% above today’s levels and 25% above pre-recession levels. This indicates that the global financial crisis cost airlines about two years of growth.

5 September 2011
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Jul +5E; Jun +6E; May +5P; Apr +17.7; Mar +4.5; Feb +4.6; Jan +4.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

2 September 2011
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2011: Jun +4E; May +5E; Apr +9P; Mar +4.3; Feb +5.6; Jan +6.8. 2010: Dec +4.2; Nov +7.2; Oct: +8.4; Sep +8.8; Aug +8.1; Jul +9.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

1 September 2011
PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association) reports that visitor arrivals in Asia Pacific in June increased 6%. By region: South Asia +12%; Southeast Asia +16%; Northeast Asia +4%; Pacific -4%.

31 August 2011
IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports air traffic (RPKs) up 5.9% in July (international +7.3%, domestic 3.5%).
  Airlines based in Europe increased traffic 9.3% on an 8.9% increase in capacity. Those in North America increased traffic 3.9% on a 4.4% increase in capacity. And those in Asia Pacific increased traffic 4.9% on a 5.8% increase in capacity.
  Domestic traffic has had slight growth since Q3 2010. US domestic, which represents 50% of the world’s market, grew 2.1%. China, which represents an 18% share, slowed to just a 5.1% increase. Japan is recovering slowly; June fell 20.3% but July was 16.7% down. Brazil increased 17.8% and India 20.6%.
  Compared to pre-recession levels of early 2008, international passenger traffic has expanded by 12%. Had the industry continued to grow at the pre-recession pace of 8%, international markets would have been about 14% higher than today’s levels and 25% higher than pre-recession level. The global financial crisis cost airlines about two full years’ growth.

30 August 2011
Air Asia reports revenue increased 6% for its Malaysia division in Q2 2011, up 14% for Thailand, up 2% for Indonesia.

29 August 2011
The Air China group traffic (RPKs) on domestic routes increased 37.8% on capacity (ASKs) up 30.5%. Seat sales increased 33.6% to 28.8mn.

26 August 2011
According to The Pegasus View, leisure travel bookings grew 3.1% in July globally. Global business travel revenue grew 12.2%, while global leisure travel revenue increased 8.6%.

25 August 2011
Our May calculation of seats sold by ‘group airlines’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from AEA data, for AF+KL+AZ, BA+IB, LH+LX+BD+SN+OS, shows: +6.1% +6.6% +9.7% (‘parent’ airlines, AF BA LH, +4% +23% +12%).

24 August 2011
IATA (International Air Transport Association) reports air traffic (RPKs) up 5% in June (international up 6.2%, domestic up 3.6%).

23 August 2011
Alitalia sold 11.2mn seats, 5.7%, in the first half (after 8.8% growth in Q2).

22 August 2011
Our YTD through April calculation of international passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +28.0% (all airports +31.2%). Last month: -1.5% (+3.4%).

19 August 2011
US airlines in July:
-American traffic up 1.7% on capacity up 0.9%. International traffic up 5.2% on capacity up 3.0%.
-Delta traffic flat on a 1.0% increase in capacity. International traffic up 1.5% on capacity up 3.3%.

18 August 2011
Asia Pacific airlines:
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.52mn seats in July, up 1.6% on capacity (ASKs) up 7.0%. YTD seat sales increased 1.7% on capacity up 9.4%.
-Thai Airways sold 13.2% more seats in its Q2 2011, and increased traffic (RPKs) 9.8%.

17 August 2011
The May hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World +4.7; AsPac +3.3; Europe +8.1; US +2.6. Previous month: +4.7; +2.6; +8.6; +2.8.

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