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Sources for information shown in this section are generally the companies or associations concerned, and may not be marked. Other sources marked. Travel Business Analyst is marked 'TBA'.

 

18 April 2014
-Alitalia sold 1.68mn seats in March; we estimate that was a 0.7% fall.
-Premium traffic (RPKs) on IATA member airlines was +4.1% in February.
-Copenhagen airport passenger count was 2.0mn, +4.8%, in March.
-Frankfurt airport passenger count was 12.2mn, +2%, in Q1.

17 April 2014
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.60mn seats, +2.0%, in March.
-Etihad sold 3.2mn seats, +14%, in Q1.
-London Heathrow airport passenger count was 5.8mn, -2.8%, in March.

16 April 2014
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jan +2E. 2013: Dec +5P; Nov +1.2; Oct +2.7; Sep +2.0; Aug +2.6; Jul +2.7; Jun +2.7; May +2.8; Apr +0.6; Mar +3.6; Feb +0.9. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

15 April 2014
US updates:
-US travel agencies in Q1 - air ticket sales US$24bn +4.6%, ticket transactions 39.5mn +2.6%.
-US visitor spend on traveller accommodation +14.5% in Q4 2013, prices for traveller accommodation -8.0%, prices for passenger air transportation +7.9%.

14 April 2014
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jan +8E. 2013: Dec +6P; Nov +4.8; Oct +6.9; Sep +8.1; Aug +7.8; Jul +4.2; Jun +6.0; May +4.0; Apr +3.3; Mar +6.4; Feb +6.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

11 April 2014
Link to Travel Intelligence column, Page 6, in TTG Asia compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10036683#/8

Link to TTG Travel Pursuits column, Page 13, in TTG Asia compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10036683#/26

10 April 2014
Aviation updates in March (unless noted otherwise):
-ACI reports Europe’s airport passengers +5.3% in February.
-Air Berlin sold 2.26mn seats, -4.4%.
-American RPKs were +0.9%.
-Easyjet sold 5.11mn seats, +4.8%.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs were +2.6%.
-Lufthansa Group sold 21.7mn seats, +0.5%, in Q1.
-SAS sold 2.2mn seats, +7.1%.
-Southwest RPKs were +1.6%.
-United RPKs were +0.7%.

9 April 2014
Link to Foxtrots blog on the Singapore Airlines group: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/04/09/singapore-airlines-company-thoughts/

Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jan +4E. 2013: Dec +4P; Nov +3.1; Oct +5.5; Sep +4.0; Aug +6.1; Jul +1.1; Jun +5.0; May +4.3; Apr +0.5; Mar +2.1; Feb +2.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

8 April 2014
Travel industry updates:
-Aeroflot sold 1.56mn seats, +14.9% in February.
-The US department of commerce forecasts 72.2mn visitors, +3.6%, this year.
-US visitors spent US$12.2bn, +8%, on travel goods and services in the US in January, and US$3.6bn, +4%, on passenger air and ship fares (on US aircraft/ships only).

7 April 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Jan +5E. 2013: Dec +5P; Nov +3.6; Oct +5.3; Sep +4.7; Aug +5.7; Jul +2.6; Jun +4.8; May +4.0; Apr +1.5; Mar +5.4; Feb +3.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

4 April 2014
Link to TTG Travel Pursuits column, Page 5, in TTG Asia compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10036512#/4

Foxtrots blog – Taiwan . Link: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/04/04/taiwan-update/

3 April 2014
Taiwan’s MICE
-Taiwan External Trade Development Council (abbreviated, inexplicably, to Taitra) issues the Meet Taiwan discount card. It forecast 60,000 would be issued but it was wrong; about 105,000 had been issued by end-2013.
-Grand, which manages the International Convention Center Kaohsiung, held 750 events in its first year of management (almost comprising all-2013); it projects double that this year.
-Kaohsiung Exhibition Center is due to open this month. It is the first conference centre managed by Uniplan, which has signed a 12-year management contract for the government-owned centre. Until now Uniplan has done event management.
-Taiwan has probably gained from the China-v-Japan political squabble. In 2013, for instance, McDonald’s China held a business meeting–cum-incentive travel for 2500 management-level staff.
-2013 C and E (of MICE) ‘output’ (not clearly defined) US$1.1bn (NT$33.8bn).
-Visitors who had seen advertisements or read reports about Taiwan before visiting – all types of visitors 63%, MICE (just C & E segments; likewise for rest of this section) 49%.
-Spent their spare time on sightseeing during their visit in Taiwan – all 58%, MICE 89%.
-Made trip as a “group tour arranged through a travel agency” – all 40%, MICE 3%.
-First time to Taiwan – all 68%, MICE 66%.
-Daily spend – all US$234, MICE US$213. Most observers maintain that MICE visitors spend more. The DMO had no comment on this contrary finding.
-Spend breakdown – hotel (all 32% share, MICE 52%), meals (all 13%, MICE 13%), local transport (all 10%, MICE 8%), entertainment (all 8%, MICE 4%), shopping (all 36%, MICE 20%), miscellaneous (all 1%, MICE 2%).
-Applied for tax refund – all 15%, MICE 7%. Thought tax-refund procedures were convenient – all 93%, MICE 100%.
Notes: Other related reports on Taiwan have appeared in the Travel Business Analyst newsletters, and in the Foxtrots and Trottings blogs.

2 April 2014
Daily ridership on THSR (Taiwan High Speed Rail), running Taipei-Kaohsiung, is about 130,000 on about 135 departures daily.
  The service decimated air travel; half the air routes between Taipei and the country's western cities had been discontinued. Total domestic air traffic was expected to be halved and the last Taipei-Kaohsiung flight stopped in 2012.
  It also affected other modes of transport:
-After THSR started, non-high-speed traffic Taipei-Kaohsiung fell 10%. We are surprised it was not more. So this probably indicates that THSR took most of its traffic from the airlines, but see also next.
-The parallel expressway also lost 10% of its traffic, and long-distance bus companies lost 20-30%.

1 April 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in March. Airlines: biggest growth, Air NZ +15%; biggest fall, SAS -19%. Hotels: NH +7%, Jinjiang -14%. Others: Kuoni +9%, Orbitz -18%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Ryanair +17%; biggest fall, Malaysia -17%. Hotels: Orient Express +11%, Melia -5%. Others: Orbitz +32%, Kuoni -9%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 151, US 257, AsPac 83, Eur 113.  Index previous month: WW 148, US 245, AsPac 84, Eur 113.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

31 March 2014
The November ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +2% over the same month in 2012. Previous month +5%.

28 March 2014
Foxtrots blog – Etihad Regional. Link: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/03/28/etihad-does-mini-etihad/

27 March 2014
Travel industry updates:
-Wrong name. Switzerland-based Darwin Airline, now 33% owned by Etihad, was renamed Etihad Regional this January. As the word ‘etihad’ comes from the Arabic for ‘union’, we believe its new name should be UnionAir.
-Newly-available data on the Kuala Lumpur-Bangkok route shows traffic last December was greater into Don Mueang airport than into Suvarnabhumi.
-The core Singapore Airlines group (SIAG - SIA plus Silk) sold only 1.4% more seats over January-February.
-Singapore airport handled 4.11mn passengers, -0.2%, in February.
-US visitors 5.4mn, +3%, in November 2012.

26 March 2014
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in January, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows 2.5% for AF+KL, +6.4% BA+IB, +3.1% LH+LX+OS.

25 March 2014
Outbound travel by US nationals totalled 4.5mn, +9%, in January. To overseas 2.0mn +4% (Europe 578k +3%, Asia 376k +1%). With North America 2.48mn, +13%.

24 March 2014
Foxtrots blog - Tripped Up, or Bad Trips. India, (No-) Goa, Virgin, WTTC. Link:
http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/03/

21 March 2014
Our YTD through October calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +1.2% (all airports +4.7%). Last month: +1.0% (+4.4%).

20 March 2014
Foxtrots blog - Club Med in a Muddle. Link: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/03/20/club-med-in-a-muddle/

The December hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.5; AsPac 1.9; Europe 1.6; US 1.1. Previous month: 3.9; AsPac 5.5; Europe 5.0; US 0.5.

19 March 2014
Aviation updates:
-Alitalia. Selected data being released. Not all shown here because value of data may not be clear. Period Jan-Feb.
  -Visitors to Italy on Alitalia +4%.
  -Seat sales from Europe +6%.
  -Seat sales from North America +3% - business class +6.4pts, premium economy +7.4pts.
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.38mn seats, + 1.8%, in February.
-IATA member airlines’ premium seat sales +6.1% (North Atlantic +5%, Asia +7%) in January. 

18 March 2014
The January ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 136; AsPac 83; Europe 109; US 215. (Base: Dec 06.)

17 March 2014
(Delayed report)
Some surprising moves in 2013 travel stock prices. They grew 40% worldwide, 74% in the US, 47% in Europe, but fell 27% in Asia Pacific! Match that with their stockmarket results - +17% WW, +23% US, +18% Eur, flat in AsPac.

14 March 2014
Travel industry updates:
-ACI said Europe’s airports handled +6.3% passengers in January.
-Air Berlin sold 1.84mn seats, +2%, in February.
-American RPKs were +0.5% in February.
-Easyjet sold 4.23mn seats, +2.9%, in February.
-Frankfurt airport handled 3.7mn passengers, +1.8%, in February.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) RPKs were +11.4% in February.
-IATA forecasts seat sales will be +5.8% this year; earlier, it forecast +6.0%.
-London Heathrow airport handled 4.9mn passengers, +1%, in February.
-Ryanair sold 4.5mn seats, +7%, in February.
-Southwest RPKs in February were +1.2%.
-Turkish sold 48.3mn seats, +23.6%, in 2013.
-United RPKs were -0.3% in February.
-US visitors were 6.0mn, +4% in September.

13 March 2014
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Dec +5E; Nov +1P; Oct +2.7; Sep +2.0; Aug +2.6; Jul +2.7; Jun +2.2; May +1.4; Apr +0.4; Mar +3.4; Feb +0.7; Jan +2.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

12 March 2014
IPKI mis-reporting
(Extracted from the Travel Business Analyst newsletter.)
We have found disturbing mis-reporting, and some errors, in recent output from research body IPK International’s World Travel Monitor. The company did not answer our requests for clarification before going to press, leaving us to interpret its data and comments as best we can.
-Notes “tourism” grew 4% in 2012. We assume this is only inbound visitor arrivals.
-Says this 2012 result makes 2013 “one of the most successful years to date”. We do not understand how 2012 data makes 2013 a ‘success’. In addition, ‘one of’ is unacceptable for an organisation such as IPKI and almost meaningless. For instance, arrivals (if IPKI is commenting on that) grew 5% in 2011 and 7% in 2010, making each of those also ‘one of the most successful...’.
  For 2013:
-IPKI says the MICE segment grew 6%. We do not know how IPKI measures MICE, but we do know the sector is small, certainly under 10%.
-What IPKI calls “conventional business travel” fell 10%; we presume this excludes the MICE sector.
-“Culturally motivated travel such as city breaks” grew 8%. We disagree that all ‘city breaks’ can be defined ‘culturally-motivated’.
-“Culturally motivated travel such as roundtrips” grew 5%. Nonsensical definition, although IPKI usually has a category of ‘sightseeing’, and we presume ‘roundtrips’ is that but mis-translated.
  IPKI also continues with its non-travel observations, which to us seem exaggerated and faintly ridiculous, viz:
-“There is still a risk of national economies going bankrupt and the world’s financial system collapsing.” Obviously there is always a possibility that these two events will happen, but surely this is unlikely, at least in the near future, say 4/5 years?
  (That said, by using the term ‘national economies’, IPKI includes every economy in the world, so the likelihood of one going bankrupt one day – that is the definition – must be high.)
-“For the old economies this means that the economic pressure of higher taxes and interest rates which take effect below the inflation threshold will result in a further tightening of belts.” An “inflation threshold” does not exist, thus making this comment meaningless.
-Despite the “unsettled economic situation”, IPKI says the volume of travel will “continue to grow and for the most part will result in more people from the new economies undertaking their first trips” (in 2014). Similarly, a ‘settled’ economic situation does not exist – unless IPKI has its own definition, such as the top-10 economies all growing annually at 2-5%?
  We also do not understand how growth in travel can ‘result in’ more people from ‘new economies’ (whatever they are) taking a first trip. Surely it is the other way round - growth (which is particularly from China and Russia) will cause the growth?

11 March 2014
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Dec +6E; Nov +5P; Oct +6.9; Sep +8.1; Aug +7.8; Jul +4.2; Jun +6.0; May +4.0; Apr +3.0; Mar +6.4; Feb +6.7; Jan +3.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

10 March 2014
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Dec +5E; Nov +3P; Oct +5.5; Sep +4.0; Aug +6.1; Jul +1.1; Jun +5.0; May +4.3; Apr +0.5; Mar +2.1; Feb +2.5; Jan -1.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

7 March 2014
Asean. Annual review.
Reports on the 10 destinations of Asean, collected from the ATF-2014 in Kuching, Malaysia. Different reports on these destinations have run in the Travel Business Analyst newsletters (primarily market analysis) and on travelbusinessanalyst.com (primarily news). The reports here are more product-related.

Brunei.
-New products: Floating Jetty to Bangar in Temburong district, due early this year, costing US$188k (B$236k); 500-ha Agro-Technology Park (free entry); War/Heritage Trail; River Cruise; Islamic Tours; Kampong Kiudang (jungle trekking, cultural and heritage trails).
-Improvements at the Jerudong pleasure park (mini water park, ferris wheel, 21-mini hole golf-course, junior coaster ride), due by mid-year.
-New/changed hotels: V Plaza (Kuala Belait) 82R, Stoneville 36R, Star Lodge (was Holiday Lodge) 107R, Park Garden (was Goodview) 68R, NSEY Hotel (Kuala Belait) 18R.

Cambodia. No information given.

Indonesia.
-DMO plans more effort in China, including B-to-C promotions in six secondary cities, such as Chongqing, Suzhou. It did three cities in 2013. It will be helped by new flights, such as Hainan-Bali by Hainan Airlines.
-New policy is to promote ‘Bali Beyond’. Helping will be new Garuda ATR flights from Bali to east Indonesia, such as Komodo and Papua.
-Garuda plans to restart London flights this year.
-DMO now using trade-term coined by Travel Business Analyst – VoB, for Visa-on-Board. The service has been available on flights from Australia and Japan, and has now been started on flights from Shanghai.

Laos.
-Applied for world heritage status for the Plain of Jars (which has 156 pots, of which the biggest is 3m).
-Visa free for Asean markets plus six other, and largely irrelevant, markets. Not, for instance, Australia, China, France, Germany, UK, US. The DMO says the reason is political; Luxembourg and Switzerland get visa-free because they help Laos economically.

Malaysia.
-Current opening date for the replacement second terminal at Kuala Lumpur airport (named KLIA-2, to take over from the LCCT, low-cost-carrier-terminal) is this May.
-Among new hotels due in Kuala Lumpur: St Regis due 2014, Regent 2015, W 2016, Four Seasons 2017, Harrods 2018.
-The Iskandar development in Johore Bahru opened a retail village last September, including 80 upmarket shops. The Legoland theme park, also opened September, counted a high 2mn visitors by year-end.
-23,000 people approved for second-home visas – ostensibly for retirement, but also used by businessmen from other countries.

Sarawak, host of ATF-2014.
-Has Mulu as world heritage site and the DMO is considering a link with Cambodia’s Siem Reap and Komodo in Indonesia for a culture circuit.
-The state still has control over immigration (even intra-Malaysia travellers go through immigration control). That was the deal the Sarawak state arranged when it joined the Malaysia federation.
-Product changes: pedestrian bridge over the river in Kuching, but date not finalised.
-Kuching product update due this year:
  -Borneo Samariang Resort City. A 200ha satellite township north of Kuching, to be developed over 10 years including theme parks, resort accommodation, and what is called a ‘dedicated MICE Center’ – although there cannot be such a thing for the ‘I’ part of ‘MICE’.
  -KTS Garden, comprising a main hall with restaurants - general Chinese with 60 tables and a Cantonese one with 20.
  -Imperial Hotel. 325R, ballroom (1500 banquet-style), nine meeting rooms 40-60 banquet-style). Due this month.

Myanmar.
-Visitors can now arrive through one border crossing (including land crossings), and depart through another.
-A new airport is being built for capacity-peaked Yangon, due in 2017, perhaps 2016. Existing airport will remain open. Mandalay airport to be expanded; details unclear.
-DMO still encourages new airlines into Yangon, but looks more carefully at existing airlines wanting to increase their capacity.
-Sofitel due to open this year.

Philippines.
-Now diversifying its product.
-The DMO is now seeking educational tourism.
-A problem is air access. The DMO hopes Terminal-3 will open this year. A new airport is planned for the south of Luzon island.
-Following an executive order from the president, all foreign airlines have unlimited access to airports other than Manila.
-In 2013 Philippine Airlines restarted Europe flights, to London, and this year it plans to add Paris.
-Charter flights from China to Legaspi are planned for this year.
-Budget terminal is due to open at Clark airport by 2015.
-VPY, Visit Philippines Year, planned for 2015.

Singapore.
-14k hotel rooms due in next few years. Those this year include Holiday Inn Express.
-New products: River Safari, opened April 2013, part of which is the Amazon River Quest (only 480m long), opened December 2013; Marine Life Park, getting about 18k visitors/day; Satay by the Bay in Gardens by the Bay; Chinatown Food Street due to reopen Q1 this year; Madame Tussauds due to open on Sentosa island some time this year; Sports Hub, with a retractable roof, due to open first half of this year, with the first event scheduled to be a women’s tennis event, which has been signed on for eight years; National Art Gallery, due in 2015, housed in refurbished building; Singapore Botanic Gardens has applied for Unesco heritage site designation.
-There are plans to expand the city’s metro-rail system into Johore Bahru in neighbouring Malaysia.

Thailand.
-4th bridge into Laos opened in 2013. By 2016 the so-called ‘Asian Highway’ is due to open from Bangkok though Myanmar to northeast India.
-The DMO has set up a call centre to inform visitors about the current socio-political problems. And its website even provides video coverage of trouble-spots.
-This year it plans to focus on promoting the north and south – presumably to avoid problems if they continue to be centred on Bangkok.

Vietnam.
-New hotels/resorts: Novotel Danang, Laguna Lang Co, Muang Thanh.
-New airport is planned for HCMC. And Hanoi plans a new terminal.
-New rules introduced in 2013 to make it easier for visitors to bring in their own vehicles.
-Has seven world heritage sites.
-Visa-free access to Phu Quoc island (in the southwest actually closer to Cambodia, only 12km away). Its airport is served from Ho Chi Minh City, and there is a hydrofoil service to the mainland 115km away.

*Different reports on these destinations have run in this month’s Travel Business Analyst newsletters and in the Foxtrots blog.

6 March 2014
Aviation updates in January:
-Aeroflot sold 1.6mn seats, +13.7%.
-RPKs of airline members of IATA (International Air Transport Association) grew 8.0% (international +7.8%, domestic +8.2%).
–Singapore airport handled 4.60mn passengers, +6.3%.
-US international seats sold +8%.

5 March 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Dec +5E; Nov +3P; Oct +5.3; Sep +4.7; Aug +5.7; Jul +2.6; Jun +4.7; May +3.7; Apr +1.4; Mar +5.3; Feb +3.4; Jan +1.9. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Link to column compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst, on Germany’s travel market in TTG Asia’s ITB Daily issue:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10036134#/2

4 March 2014
In 2013:
-Copenhagen airport handled 24.1mn passengers, +3.1% .
-London Heathrow airport handled 72.3mn passengers, +3.4%.
-Visitors to the US spent US$181bn, +9%.
-Etihad sold 11.5mn seats, +12%.

3 March 2014
Foxtrots blog - Meetings trends; Amex, ICCA, GCB. Link: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/03/02/meetings-trends-amex-icca-gcb/

Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in February. Airlines: biggest growth, Ryanair +17%; biggest fall, Malaysia -17%. Hotels: Orient Express +11%, Sol Melia -5%. Others: Orbitz +32%, Kuoni -9%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, American 33%; biggest fall, Jet AW -19%. Hotels: NH +9%, Shangri La -15%. Others: TUI +6%, Interval -15%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 148, US 245, AsPac 84, Eur 113.  Index previous month: WW 136, US 215, AsPac 83, Eur 109.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in this month’s newsletters, including comparison with end-year prices over the past 12 months, and with 5- and 10-years ago.

28 February 2014
The October ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +5% over the same month in 2012. Previous month +5%.

27 February 2014
Departures by US nationals 61.6mn +1% in 2013; to non-North America destinations 29.0mn, +2%.
A full report on this topic in the March issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter highlights some important observations on the data as presented.

26 February 2014
A Jones Lang LaSalle report on Australia hotel development shows:
-Roomnight supply expected to increase 1.2% annually over next five years. Long-term average has been 3.7% annually, but 1.0% over the past 10 years.
-There are 10 projects (but JLL says they will have only 735 rooms) under construction or proposed in Melbourne and Sydney. But projects in Sydney at the start stage total 32 with 3226 rooms.

25 February 2014
Aviation updates:
-Aeroflot seat sales in 2013 were +18.4%.
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.54mn seats, +9.3%, in January.
-IATA reports in December: premium international passenger seat sales were +4.2%; economy international seat sales were +3.5%.

24 February 2014
Foxtrots blog - Casinos into travel. Link: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/02/24/casinos-into-travel/

Foxtrots blog - Soundbites from Philip Wolf. Link: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/02/22/soundbites-from-philip-wolf/

Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in December, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows 3.7% for AF+KL, +4.3% BA+IB, +3.1% LH+LX+OS.

21 February 2014
-Our YTD through September calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +1.0% (all airports +4.4%). Last month: +0.8% (+4.1%).

-Business in 2013 was not as good for Singapore Airlines as they would like us to think; seat sales up only 3%. Also +3% at Silk, but with a 5-pt fall in seat factor!

-Are changes in China/Taiwan travel in 2013 the beginning of trends?
  Travel from Taiwan into China fell, albeit only -2.1%, to 3.07mn. And China travel into Taiwan increased 6.7% but that was still below overall growth, which was 9.6%.
  However, Taiwan’s China market has grown an average annual 57% over the past five years! At 2.9mn, its share is now 36%, and the balance (in/out) is now almost perfect.

20 February 2014
Foxtrots blog - Soundbites from WTO’s Rifai. Link:
http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/02/20/soundbites-from-wtos-rifai/

US updates:
-ARC says US travel agency airline tickets sales were US$7.84bn, +2.8%, in January.
-Carlson Wagonlit Travel 2013 sales were US$26.9bn, -2.7%, and transactions were 60.3mn, -2.3%.
-STR on hotel occupancy in New Jersey and New York over this month’s Super Bowl weekend - in three areas concerned, 61.2% (+69.4%), 79.8% (+17.5%), 74.8% (+23.6%). In comparison, for Super Bowl 2013 in New Orleans, occupancy was 99.5%.
-Visitors to the US grew 7% to 5.5mn in June 2013.

19 February 2014
The December ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 136; AsPac 87; Europe 107; US 214. (Base: Dec 06.)

18 February 2014
Trottings blog - Air France; Paris CDG airport; Sama Sama. Link: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/02/15/trottings-air-france-paris-cdg-airport-sama-sama/

Aviation updates, January:
-Air France-KLM sold 5.7mn seats, +3.8%.
-Alitalia sold 1.48mn seats, +0.5%.
-Easyjet sold 4.02mn seats, +3.7%.
-Frankfurt airport handled 4mn passengers, +3.4%.
-London Heathrow airport handled 5.4mn passengers, +3.8%.
-Ryanair sold 4.6mn seats, +5%.
-SAS sold 1.7mn seats, -0.2%.
-Southwest RPKs were +2.2%.
-United RPKs were -1.6%.

17 February 2014
Link to column in TTG Asia compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10035542#/6

Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Nov +2E; Oct +3P; Sep +2.8; Aug +1.6; Jul +2.5; Jun +2.2; May +1.4; Apr +0.4; Mar +3.4; Feb +0.7; Jan +2.8. 2012: Dec +2.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

14 February 2014
Foxtrots blog - TinT – Truth-in-Travel: Air Asia; Skymark. Link: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/02/14/tint-truth-in-travel-air-asia-skymark/

 

Some all-2013 results:
-The Air Asia group (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand; not AAX) sold 42.6mn seats, +25%.
A different report on this topic in the next issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter highlights some important observations on the data as presented. A different report is also included in the Foxtrots blog.
-Amsterdam airport handled 52.6mn passengers, +3.0%.
-Europe airports’ passengers handled were +2.8%. Source: ACI.
-IATA (International Air Transport Association) member airlines’ RPKs were +5.2%.
-Icelandair seat sales were +12%.
-In 2013 the Rezidor hotel group contracted 6400 new rooms, opened 3300; and 2000 left the system.

13 February 2014
The ABAV travel exhibition in Brazil has changed its name from ‘ABAV - Tourism Fair of the Americas’ to a more-international ‘ABAV - International Tourism Expo’.
  Some measures from the 2013 ABAV:
-74% of exhibitors said the event generated new business opportunities.
-Financial volume generated at the fair to 2613 exhibitor brands was between US$74mn and US$120mn (based on the two estimates given by participants).
-Of visitors, 59% were directors/managers - 34% with final decision-making power, 44% with influence.
-60% of visitors said the main reason for their participation was the chance to learn about new products, 21% networking, 18% knowledge. 
-60% of exhibitors said the main reason for their participation was to find new contacts and networking, 22% to promote their brand, 13% new businesses, 6% increase sales.
  This year’s ABAV is scheduled for September 24-28 in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

12 February 2014
Trottings blog - Smart singer; Airports (Amsterdam, Paris, Singapore). Link: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/02/12/774/

Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Nov +5E; Oct +7P; Sep +8.1; Aug +7.8; Jul +4.2; Jun +6.0; May +4.0; Apr +3.0; Mar +6.4; Feb +6.7; Jan +3.4. 2012: Dec +7.0. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

11 February 2014
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Nov +4E; Oct +4E; Sep +3.8; Aug +6.1; Jul +1.1; Jun +5.0; May +4.3; Apr +0.5; Mar +2.1; Feb +2.5; Jan -1.4. 2012: Dec +1.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

10 February 2014
Capella news update:
-Has only six hotels (Dusseldorf; Ixtapa and Pedregal, Mexico; New York; Singapore, in what were the officers’ quarters for the colonial army; Sochi).
-Plans Bangkok, Doha, Mayan Riviera (Mexico), Niseko (Japan), St Petersburg (Russia), Washington.
-Will probably lose its New York hotel, the Setai, which it took over in 2009. There was a complication with the name, which carries a brand name of the Singapore-based hotel-management company GHM.
  The Setai is now being sold, and Capella expects to lose the management contract. This indicates a weak management contract, probably based on the need for Capella to get into New York. A stronger management contract would include a clause that if there were a change in ownership, the management contract remains – or compensation is paid.
-Capella is looking for another hotel in NY. This time it will most likely be named Capella.
-See report in People-in-Travel on Capella’s head, Horst Schulze.

7 February 2014
Aviation updates:
-Aeroflot sold 20.9mn seats, +18.4%, in 2013.
-Air Canada RPKs +3.7% in January.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs +11.1% in January.
-IATA (International Air Transport Association) said RPKs for member airlines were +5.2% in 2013.

6 February 2014
Reports from the IT&CMA trade show.
New Zealand
-New Zealand is well known, but people say they want to go ‘one day’. The DMO wants people to want to go on their next trip.
-Business-event visitors spend three times more than leisure visitor.
-The DMO has been given an additional US$20mn (NZ$34mn) over four years to attract business events.
-Its theme is ‘Beyond Convention’.
-Business Events has a team of seven in NZ looking at various markets. It is now about to appoint people in Singapore.
-It is trying to get more data on business travel in the first part of the business program.
-It targets the young market, families.
-Visitors from China are a growing market.
-India total 30k, but also it is also important because there is a good share of arrivals in NZ’s shoulder months, April, May.
-Malaysia. Fall because Air Asia X dropped its flights. Now starting to pick up.
-Singapore market, 38k, is flat.
-Thailand is a good growth; small but growing.
-UK is down, but it is a big market. So it goes after specific market segments. The UK market will come back.

Fast Future
Soundbites:
-The future is coming faster.
-What we think of as the far future is being created now.
-Genetic information will be part of the travel pattern. (Ie, some things you will do or not do because it is not good according to your DNA.)
-Things people worry about it - 45% intrusive security, 40% thought of missing flight; 72% length of time between check-in and boarding.
-Business traveller priorities – 56% want home away from home.
-People want ‘authentic travel’.
-Also people want to get away from technology.
-At one Crowne Plaza, if you use the cycle machine in the exercise room you generate electricity.
-Some sites offer hotels to bid for a customer once he has booked a room in a hotel.
-China Southern offers upgrade to BC in flight.
-The travel agent has become a travel enabler.

5 February 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Nov +4E; Oct +5P; Sep +4.8; Aug +5.5; Jul +2.8; Jun +4.7; May +3.7; Apr +1.4; Mar +5.3; Feb +3.4; Jan +1.9. 2012: Dec +4.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

4 February 2014
Singapore’s oddly-named hotel company, Unlisted Collection, is expanding fast. Updates:
-Has six hotels. Biggest is 98 rooms. UC says a property needs about 30 rooms to make money.
-Majestic, Singapore. Was 80 rooms, now 30. Different designs for each room.
-Its Shanghai hotel, which was a warehouse, has only 19 rooms. UC says its restaurant makes more money than the hotel. But the main money is the event space (there is a big space there in the warehouse).
-Tries to limit OTA sales to 20%. About 25-30% of sales through its own website.
-Its Frankfurt hotel has near 100% corporate travellers.
-UC’s owner tells staff not to take their job too seriously; have fun.
-Has one GM for its three hotels in Singapore and its two in London. Also, some back office functions are mixed. In Sydney with just one hotel, it would be hard. It would not have a 19-room hotel in Sydney; has 60 rooms there. 15 staff in head office.
  Another Singapore-based hotel company, the developer Kop, says it is building in Bali. It owns the Ritz-Carlton Residency in Singapore.

3 February 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in January. Airlines: biggest growth, American 33%; biggest fall, Jet AW -19%. Hotels: NH +9%, Shangri La -15%. Others: TUI +6%, Interval -15%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, American 110%; biggest fall, Thai -17%. Hotels: Accor +6%, Peninsula -7%. Others: Amadeus +13%, Interval -21%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 136, US 215, AsPac 83, Eur 109.  Index previous month: WW 136, US 214, AsPac 87, Eur 107.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

31 January 2014
Industry results
All 2013:
-The 29 members of AEA (Association of European Airlines) sold 375mn seats, +1.6%.
-Alitalia releases only partial selected data: international seats sold +3.4% - number not given.
-Dubai airport handled 66.4mn passengers, +15.2%.
-Easyjet sold 14.3mn seats, +4.2%.
-Singapore airport handled 53.7mn passengers, +5.0%.
-International air passengers to/from the US 185.4mn, +4.4%.
-Visitor arrivals 1.09bn, +5%. Source: World Tourism Organization.

Other periods:
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.60mn seats, +3.3% in December.
-Pegasus Solutions reports world hotel leisure bookings were +4.3% in December, rates +4.8%. Corporate bookings +7.4%, rates +1.7%.
-Visitors to the US spent US$15.3bn, +9%, in November – spend in the US US$11.8bn +8%, spend on fares US$3.4bn +3%.
-US outbound overseas (excluding Canada, Mexico) 2.0mn, +3%, in November.

30 January 2014
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in November, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -0.2% for AF+KL, +3.0% BA+IB, +1.1% LH+LX+OS.

29 January 2014
WTM’s foolish figures
The World Travel Market has reported that its Global Trends Report* has “accurately [predicted] trends” in travel.

The BRICs
GTR in 2012 predicted that visitor arrivals in Europe from BRIC markets (Brazil Russia India China) would “experience incredible growth”, presumably in 2013. In a report based on statistical data, “incredible” is unprofessional, and has no real meaning. But colloquially, it has come to mean a little more than “surprising”.
  GTR/WTM were extremely selective in information supporting its claim, starting with the definition “newly released data”. There is no further indication of what period that covers.
  They selected just three destinations, only one of which is in the top-10 visitor destinations in Europe. And from these it showed only some BRIC data, viz: Croatia B +40%, C +93%; Cyprus R +42%; Netherlands I +18%. That is four pieces of data out of maximum 12 possible for these three.
  And if all Europe is included, that would be four pieces of data out of about maximum 160. GTR/WTM seem more likely to have lost much credibility rather than the kudos they are claiming.
  The data we have shows:
  [] Croatia. For 2012 B +40.9%, R +7.7%, I +50.0%, C +95.5%. Russia might not have been noted in GTR because it was below faster growth from bigger markets in Europe - +12% from Germany, +10% from Poland, +17% from Netherlands. None of those trends was foreseen by GTR.
  But note – which GTR did not – those big percentages are on small or tiny figures, such as India growing from 4000 visitors to 6000. Germany sent 200k more visitors; additional from the BRICs totalled 36k; GTR did not foresee that trend.
  [] Cyprus. R +42.0%, C +6.6%. No figures for B&I – which means they were small. Japan from Asia (already bigger than I&C) managed 80% growth – a trend that GTR did not predict. We also note that some of the Russia traffic may now fall following Cyprus’s financial crisis, of which Russia was an important element, this past summer.
  [] Netherlands. We have only Jan-Mar 13 data (which may or may not tally with GTR’s ‘newly-released’. B +18%, R +6%, I +16%, C (includes Hong Kong) +27%. But, note, Japan (bigger than I&C) +21%, and much more important, Germany +15%. Again, that Germany growth represents 5-times as many additional visitors than the BRIC growth. Unfortunately, GTR did not foresee that trend.

Digital Detox
Another trend theme was GTR’s forecast of “Digital Detox at Hotels”. (The way GTR uses ‘Detox’, it appears to mean ‘relax’. ‘Digital’ is almost meaningless in this title, but we presume DD means getting away from technology.)
  Obviously, this ‘trend’ is not a statistical measure, and can mean much or little. But nothing GTR shows indicates its forecast ‘key trend’ is indeed that. It gives a few examples – the type of which happens every year - such as internet-free holidays.
  We could easily find the same number of examples of more ‘connected’ offers from hotels, so would that prove the opposite of ‘digital detox’ – that there is a ‘key trend’ to more ‘tech-friendly’ holidays?

Nollywood
WTM said the GTR “correctly predicted” that Nollywood “would help boost tourism in Nigeria”. We would probably agree with that, although we might also add that, say, the oil business also helped boost visitor arrivals (WTM/GTR mean all ‘arrivals’, thus including business travel as well as leisure, when they use the word “tourism”).
  But WTM ‘proves’ that Nollywood support for the visitor business by noting that visitor arrivals in Nigeria increased 2% in 2012 and are expected to “grow by 3% by 2017”. That seems to be saying that growth over 2013-17 will be 3% - which would be 0.6% annually!
  Or is this a script for a Nollywood comedy?

*GTR is produced for WTM by Euromonitor, some of whose travel business reports have been criticised in the Travel Business Analyst newsletters. This means that comments here about GTR are also a direct reference to Euromonitor.

28 January 2014
Our YTD through August calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +0.8% (all airports +4.1%). Last month: +0.7% (+2.1%).

27 January 2014
The October hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 3.9; AsPac 5.5; Europe 5.0; US 0.5. Previous month: 3.3; 1.2; 4.5; 0.0.

24 January 2014
Following are destination visitor-arrival (VA) counts for Asean (Association of South East Asian Nations) from this week’s Asean Tourism Forum in Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia.
-The Asean secretariat (AS) puts growth in 2013 at 14.5% for ‘regional’ visitors and 9.9% for ‘international’. Neither definition is further qualified.
-AS says visitor arrivals into the 10 Asean destinations was 90.2mn, up 12%, in 2013. DMOs (destination marketing offices) at ATF-2013 targetted 2013 arrivals which we totalled to 97.3mn, up 9.8%.
-Targetted total for this year indicates the same growth as that targetted for 2013 - +9.8%. That would take the total finally past 100mn to 109mn.

Different and/or more-comprehensive reports on this subject have run in the Travel Business Analyst newsletters, and the Foxtrots blog.

23 January 2014
Following are destination visitor-arrival counts from this week’s Asean Tourism Forum in Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia. (When data is rounded, this is how it was presented. Some totals and growth are results of extrapolations by Travel Business Analyst.)
[] Singapore.
-The DMO is still having problems with the immigration department’s lengthy delays in counting visitor arrivals. This problem has been running for almost two years.
-Growth in the first half of 2013 was 9%. The DMO will not venture any further estimate or projection. We have taken the 9% for all-2013, and forecast 7.5% for this year.
[] Thailand. Visitor arrivals in 2013 estimated at 26mn, up 16%. Forecast for this year – 28mn +8%.
[] Vietnam.
-Visitor arrivals in 2013 estimated at 7.6mn, up 11%. Forecast for this year – 8.3mn +10%.
-Outperforming market in terms of the China market – 34% increase in 2013 to 1.9mn, 25% of the total. Russia is also growing fast, 71%, but it is still small – 298k, 9th largest.

Different and/or more-comprehensive reports on these destinations have run in the Travel Business Analyst newsletters, and the Foxtrots blog.

22 January 2014
Following are destination visitor-arrival counts from this week’s Asean Tourism Forum in Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia. (When data is rounded, this is how it was presented. Some totals and growth are results of extrapolations by Travel Business Analyst.)
[] Malaysia.
-Visitor arrivals in 2013 estimated at 26mn, up 4%. Forecast for this year – 28mn +8%.
-China third-largest market source, but expected to overtake Indonesia this year. (Singapore represents nearly half, because land arrivals are counted.)
[] Myanmar. Visitor arrivals in 2013 estimated at 2mn, up 93%. Forecast for this year – 3mn +50%.
[] Philippines. Visitor arrivals in 2013 estimated at 5mn, up 16%. It did not reach its target because of the super storm towards the end of 2013. Forecast for this year – 7mn +4%.

Different and/or more-comprehensive reports on these destinations have run in the Travel Business Analyst newsletters, and the Foxtrots blog.

21 January 2014
Following are destination visitor-arrival counts from this week’s Asean Tourism Forum in Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia. (When data is rounded, this is how it was presented. Some totals and growth are results of extrapolations by Travel Business Analyst.)
[] Brunei. Visitor arrivals in 2013 estimated at 200k, down 4%. Forecast for this year – 240k +3%.
[] Indonesia. Visitor arrivals in 2013 estimated at 8.7mn, up 8%. Forecast for this year – 9.2mn +6%.
[] Laos.
-Visitor arrivals in 2013 estimated at 3.8mn, up 13%. Forecast for this year – 4mn +5%.
-Thailand now producing almost 2mn of total visitors, followed by Vietnam then China.

Different and/or more-comprehensive reports on these destinations have run in the Travel Business Analyst newsletters, and the Foxtrots blog.

20 January 2014
ATF (the Asean Tourism Forum) in Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia, expects 1600 delegates (compared with 2000 at ATF-2013 in Vientiane), including Travex, its travel exhibition component. The business segments of ATF start today and run through January 24.
  The 3-day trade-only Travex covers 5700sqm (9000), with 450 (490) booths from 353 (354) companies from the 10 Asean destinations. Malaysia has the largest booth numbers with 107 (Thailand 125), followed some way behind by Thailand 89 (Indonesia 75).
  Registered buyers number 462 (470) from 54 (56) markets. There were no buyers from Asia’s biggest outbound market, China, nine from the smallest market, Bangladesh.
  Registered media numbered 148 (141) from 29 (32) markets; 43 from the host country.
  Also planned is the 3-hour Asean Tourism Conference. There is no special theme this year (just ‘Asean’); in 2013 it was eco-tourism.

17 January 2014
US updates:
-International air passengers 169.5mn, +4%, Jan-Nov. US nationals 74.5mn +3% for a 44% share; non-US nationals 95.1mn +5% 56%; US airlines 90.2mn +3% 53%; non-US airlines 79.4mn +5% 47%; Europe 50.5mn 2.1% 30%; Asia 25.6mn 4.2% 15%.
-US nationals outbound overseas 24.5mn, +1%, Jan-Oct.
-Ticket sales by US travel agencies were US$86.2bn, +1.85%, in 2013.

16 January 2014
The November ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 133; AsPac 88; Europe 102; US 210. (Base: Dec 06.)

15 January 2014
Aviation results for 2013:
-The 29 member airlines of AEA (Association of European Airlines) sold 375mn seats, +1.6%.
-The Austrian Airlines group sold 11.3mn seats, -1.6%.
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 29.9mn seats, +3.3%.
-Copenhagen airport handled 24.1mn passengers, +3.1%.
-London Heathrow airport handled 72.3mn passengers, +3.4%.
-London Stansted airport handled 17.8mn passengers, +2.2%.
-The Lufthansa group (Austrian, Germanwings, Lufthansa, Swiss) sold 104mn seats, +1%.
-SAS sold 1.7mn seats, +2.5%.
-Swiss sold 16.0mn seats, +0.9%.
-TAP-Air Portugal sold 10.7mn seats, +5%.

14 January 2014
Travel industry counts:
-Air France-KLM sold 6.2mn seats, +3.7% in December.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs +10.6% in December.
-Member airlines of IATA (International Air Transport Association) RPKs were +4.1% in November. International +4.8% - Asia Pacific +5.5%, Europe +4.1%, North America +1.7%. Domestic +3.1% - US -1.2%, China +9.3%, Brazil +4.5%, India +3.4%, Russia +9.2%.
-Starwood Hotels opened 74 hotels, +6%, and signed contracts for 152 more, +16%, in 2013.
-Thailand counted 26.7mn visitors, +19.6%, in 2013.
-United RPKs were +4.1% in December.

13 January 2014
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Oct +3E; Sep 3P; Aug +1.6; Jul +2.5; Jun +2.2; May +1.4; Apr +0.4; Mar +3.4; Feb +0.7; Jan +2.8. 2012: Dec +2.4; Nov +3.5; Oct +2.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

10 January 2014
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Oct +6E; Sep +8P; Aug +7.8; Jul +4.2; Jun +6.0; May +4.0; Apr +3.0; Mar +6.4; Feb +6.7; Jan +3.4. 2012: Dec +7.0; Nov +8.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

9 January 2014
Airline traffic, Jan-Dec 2013:
-Air Berlin sold 31.5mn seats, -5%.
-Easyjet sold 61.3mn seats, +3.6%.
-Etihad sold 12mn seats, +16%.
-Hawaiian sold 9.94mn seats, +4.8%.
-Icelandair sold 2.26mn seats, +12%.
-Ryanair sold 81.4mn seats, +2%.
-Southwest RPKs +1.4%.

8 January 2014
US news:
-International air traffic 155.8mn, +4%, Jan-Oct.
-Visitors 69mn, +3.4%, Jan-Dec.
-US nationals outbound overseas 22.4mn, +1%, Jan-Sep.

7 January 2014
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Oct +4E; Sep +4P; Aug +6.1; Jul +1.1; Jun +5.0; May +4.3; Apr +0.5; Mar +2.1; Feb +2.5; Jan -1.4. 2012: Dec +1.7; Nov +1.9. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

6 January 2014
More reports from Research & Markets, a company:
-The period covered for an Indonesia report to 2017, released end-2013, says visitor arrivals increased at an average annual growth rate of 3.2% over 2008-12. It forecasts 1.3% AAGR over 2013-17.
-Medical tourists in Thailand are forecast to be 1mn in 2013. It expects single-digit average annual growth rate over 2012-18, but does not give the number.

3 January 2014
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Oct +5E; Sep +5P; Aug +5.5; Jul +2.8; Jun +4.7; May +3.7; Apr +1.4; Mar +5.3; Feb +3.4; Jan +1.9. 2012: Dec +4.5; Nov +5.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

2 January 2014
Accommodating Luxury
Updates* on hotel companies from the ILTM trade show in Cannes last month:
[] Anantara, Thailand-based.
-Part of Minor Group. Started only in 2001 and already 26 hotels. Opened seven in 2013; five due this year.
-Minor has 100 hotels in group. Other brands are Avani, Elewana, Oaks, Per Aquum.
[] Banyan Tree, Singapore-based.
-33 properties, including Angsana, its second brand. Plans to near-double in the next five years – to 63 resorts.
-It also has one in Acapulco but along with the location, business is bad there.
-The company is 20 years old this year.
[] Como, Singapore-based.
-12 properties. Como owns all, except its first in Maldives, which is leased.
-Moving away from destination driven to activity driven.
[] Mandarin Oriental, Hong Kong-based.
-Has 45 hotels; plus 17 under construction and development. Opened in Guangzhou and Shanghai Pudong in 2013. Taipei due this year, plus resorts in Morocco, Turkey.
-Also has 13 ‘Residences by Mandarin Oriental’ next to its hotels. These are different from the serviced apartments it manages.
-It offers free hi-speed internet access in rooms. In each hotel the guest can connect six devices.
[] Peninsula Group, Hong Kong-based.
-Anniversaries this year - 85 years Hong Kong, 25 years New York, 15 years Bangkok.
[] Regent, Taiwan-based.
-Next, Montenegro. At present the resort is heavily seasonal (summer), but as more hotels open, the season might expand.
-Developing a sub-brand. It has used what it calls the old-style Regent (big lobby, big shopping, flash) for certain secondary cities.
-Formosa, owner of Regent, has several other businesses, including other hotel brands - one called Silks and Silks Place, and a 1-star brand called Just Sleep.
[] Relais & Chateaux, France-based.
-515 hotels, down from 520. New destinations - Croatia, Dominican Republic, Latvia, Mauritius, Russia, Turkey.
-Wants to expand but no actual number. Wants growth in all emerging markets, but particularly Asia Pacific, then Latin America, Russia.
-Has added Portuguese for websites; now six languages.
-This year is 60th anniversary.
[] Ritz Carlton, US-based.
-Now half of its 85 hotels are outside US.
[] Rosewood, Hong Kong-based.
-Opened in London in 2012 after spending US$137mn (£85mn) on refurbishing the existing building.
-Using personalities, such as ex-US secretary of state (foreign minister), Condoleezza Rice, to talk about their favourite Rosewood hotels. Similar theme to Mandarin-Oriental’s fans promotion, but with more action. Also as MO, Rosewood gives a donation to charity. It decides the amount, which it will not precise more than “considerable”.
[] Six Senses, Thailand-based.
-For new developments, the design element may be stronger. SS says when it took over, customers told it that the design was a little-too ‘flintstone’ – “maybe more design, less timber”.
-Company is “about reconnecting people to themselves, family, and world. We want to leave something behind in the world. Doing something good for guests, staff, and communities where we are.”
-It believes it can change people’s lives.
[] Small Luxury Hotels, UK-based.
-Has 520 properties in 70 countries.
*Different reports on these companies have run in the Net Value report, the ZERO report, the Foxtrots blog, and the Asia Pacific and Europe editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter.

1 January 2014
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in December. Airlines: biggest growth, American 110%; biggest fall, Thai -17%. Hotels: Accor +6%, Peninsula -7%. Others: Amadeus +13%, Interval -21%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, American 52%; biggest fall, Thai -16%. Hotels: Jinjiang +35%, Peninsula -7%. Others: Interval +65%, Orbitz -27%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 136, US 214, AsPac 87, Eur 107.  Index previous month: WW 133, US 210, AsPac 88, Eur 102.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters, including comparison with end-year prices over the past 12 months, and with 5- and 10-years ago.

31 December 2013
Foxtrots blog - End-year. Travel definitions. My misogynous message. Link: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2014/01/01/end-year-travel-definitions-my-misogynous-message/

 

Soundbites heard at Time trade show, Padang, Indonesia:

  • Closing conference, Time

-Breaking rules.
  -1. The organisers did promise an exposition (the E in Time), as always, for this year in Padang. But it did not deliver, and no-one seems to have complained.
  -2. The event is usually held in the same location two years running – to help defray the costs of running the show. This year that was abandoned, without discussion. This year in Padang; 2014 in Pekanburu.
-Padang could be international destination but could be better if there were more international flights.
-75% of sellers were hotels and related.
-Organisers also looking for new buyers. Target is 15% increase in buyers and sellers for 2014.

  • West Sumatra

-Direct international arrivals up 8.9% to 37k in 2012. Domestic up 10.0% to 5.8mn.
-A conference centre is due to open in Padang this year.

30 December 2013
The August ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +5% over the same month in 2012. Previous month +2%.

27 December 2013
Travel industry update - Starwood:
-In South Asia. Currently 39 open, 19 planned; targets 100 hotels open and under construction by 2015.
-W Hotels. Expects to have 20 hotels in AsPac by end-2018. Due to open this year - Beijing Chang’An, Changsha, Shanghai Bund; in 2015 - Goa, Mumbai; in 2016 - Noida (Delhi), Jakarta; after that - Gurgaon (Delhi), Suzhou.

26 December 2013
International air passenger traffic to-and-from the US in September 140.9mn, +4% (international +2%). Details: Europe +2%; Asia +4%; US nationals 62.9mn +3% and 45% share, non-US nationals 78.1mn +5% 55%; US airlines 75.4mn +3% 54%, non-US airlines 65.5mn +5% 46%.

25 December 2013
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in October, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +1.2% for AF+KL, +1.8% BA+IB, +1.3% LH+LX+OS.

24 December 2013
Travel industry counts in November:
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.48mn seats, +4.9%.
-Pegasus Solutions reports hotel leisure bookings were +1.9%, rates +3.3%. Corporate bookings -1.5%, rates +1.7%.

23 December 2013
Our YTD through July calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +0.7% (all airports +2.1%). Last month: +0.7% (+2.9%).

20 December 2013
US updates:
-Just-released data shows spend by US residents on international travel in 2012: 60.7mn trips, +3% (outside North America 28.5mn, +5%; top UK 2.5mn, Dominican Republic 2.3mn, France 2.0mn, Italy 1.9mn, Germany 1.7mn); spending US$118.1bn, +8% (air fares, on foreign airlines, US$34.7bn, other spending US$83.4bn).
-ARC, which handles financial accounting between airlines and US travel agencies, said travel agencies sold airline tickets worth US$6.2mn, +1.1%, in November, and US$80.9bn, +1.3%, Jan-Nov.
-Visitors to the US spent US$15.2bn, +10%, on travel to, and visitor-related activities within, the US in October - spending US$11.7bn +11%, fares (on US airlines and ships US$3.4bn +7%.

19 December 2013
The September hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 3.3; AsPac 1.2; Europe 4.5; US 0.0. Previous month: 1.7; 3.7; 0.1; 1.4.

18 December 2013
Starwood’s Sheraton has opened its 100th hotel in Asia Pacific, the Sheraton Shantou in China.

17 December 2013
Foxtrots blog - PAGPFT – Nok, Scoot. Link: http://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2013/12/17/pagpft-nok-scoot/

Another report from Research & Markets, a company, that is hard to comprehend, viz:
-“China’s inbound tourists are at its lowest in the first half of 2013...” R&M means inbound visitors to China, but how can it be at “its lowest”? That would mean lower than about 35 years ago. Does R&M mean it fell? (Depending on which measure is used, our information indicates visitor arrivals dropped 3-5% in the first half.)
-“...inbound tourists [were] 133mn...in 2012...a 2% fall”. We have almost the same, 132mn (which includes those from Hong Kong and Macau, which is actually domestic travel, but R&M does not note that point). Foreign passport holders (including those living in Hong Kong and Macau) totalled 27mn, +2%.
-“The factors [for the fall] are the slowdown of the global economy and the appreciation of the yuan.” But if a slowing world economy caused a slowdown for China, how did other destinations manage an increase – and most did? As for the yuan, it has been increasing in value for 15 years since it was partly freed, and its growth actually slowed in the past 12 months.
-“The objective of the new tourism law is to promote continued industry growth.” Of course, it is not possible to ‘promote growth’, a grammatical nicety but indicative of the problem in learning from R&M’s reports.

16 December 2013
The October ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 127; AsPac 90; Europe 97; US 193. (Base: Dec 06.)

13 December 2013
Aviation updates:
-Air-France/KLM sold 6.0mn seats, -0.2%, in November.
-American RPKs were -1.1%, in November.
-Copenhagen airport handled 1.8mn passengers, +0.1%, in November.
-Frankfurt airport handled 4.3mn passengers, +3.5%, in November.
-IATA (International Air Transport Association) updates. (A full report on these topics in the current issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter highlights some important observations on the data as presented.)
  -Reports RPKs were +6.6% in October - international +6.9%, Asia Pacific +7.8%, Europe +5.4%, North America +3.6%, domestic +6.0% (Australia +1.2%, Brazil +5.5%, China +12.3%, India +11.5%, Japan +5.1%, Russia +11.4%).
  -Forecasts airlines will sell 3.91bn seats in 2017, following 31% growth over 2013-17.
  -Forecasts airlines net profit this year at US$12.9bn and US$19.7bn in 2014. In September it forecast US$11.7bn for 2013 and US$16.4bn for 2014.
-London Heathrow airport handled 5.4mn passengers, +0.6%, in November.
-Lufthansa Group sold 7.8mn seats, +1.1%, in November.
-SAS sold 2.2mn seats, -2.0%, in November.
-Southwest RPKs were -1.0%, in November.
-United RPKs were +0.9%, in November.
-US air passengers +4% in August - international +6% (Asia +5%, Europe +2%).

12 December 2013
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Sep 3E; Aug +1P; Jul +2.5; Jun +2.2; May +1.4; Apr +0.4; Mar +3.4; Feb +0.7; Jan +2.8. 2012: Dec +2.4; Nov +3.5; Oct +2.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

11 December 2013
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Sep +7E; Aug +7P; Jul +4.2; Jun +6.0; May +4.0; Apr +3.0; Mar +6.4; Feb +6.7; Jan +3.4. 2012: Dec +7.0; Nov +8.8; Oct +6.0. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

10 December 2013
Visitor movements:
-US outbound travellers:
  -6.9mn, flat, in July – outside North America 3.1mn, +2% (Europe 1.3mn +3%, Asia 366k 0%, Oceania 48k 0%).
  -6.4mn, +7%, in August – outside North America 2.6mn, +3% (Europe 1.2mn +3%, Asia 325k +2%, Oceania 39k 0%).
-WTO (World Tourism Organisation) says “international tourism” (by which it means only visitor arrivals) was 845mn, +5%, Jan-Sep - Americas +3%, Asia Pacific +6%, Europe +6%.

9 December 2013
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Sep +3E; Aug +5P; Jul +1.1; Jun +5.0; May +4.3; Apr +0.5; Mar +2.1; Feb +2.5; Jan -1.4. 2012: Dec +1.7; Nov +1.9; Oct +0.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

6 December 2013
Airline updates in November:
-Easyjet sold 4.26mn seats, + 3.4%.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs were +8.4%.
-Ryanair sold 5mn seats, +6%.
-SAS sold 2.2mn seats, -2.0%.

5 December 2013
Aviation updates in October:
-ACI (Airports Council International) says passengers through Europe airports were +4.6%.
-Aeroflot sold 1.9mn seats, +20.5%.
-IATA (International Air Transport Association) says world RPKs grew 6.6% – international +6.9%, domestic +6.0%, Asia Pacific +7.8%, Europe +5.4%, North America +3.6%. YTD total +5.2% – international +5.3%, domestic +4.8%.

4 December 2013
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Sep +4E; Aug +5P; Jul +2.8; Jun +4.7; May +3.7; Apr +1.4; Mar +5.3; Feb +3.4; Jan +1.9. 2012: Dec +4.5; Nov +5.6; Oct +3.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

3 December 2013
If current traffic figures are an indication, then Delta’s link with Virgin Atlantic is already producing well. Last four month VA seat sales were up 14% (Aug) 13% 13% 16%, compared with the four months before that, 3% 2% 1% 5%.

2 December 2013
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in November. Airlines: biggest growth, American 52%; biggest fall, Thai -16%. Hotels: Jinjiang +35%, Peninsula -7%. Others: Interval +65%, Orbitz -27%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, American 57%; biggest fall, SAS -24%. Hotels: Jinjiang +33%, NH -4%. Others: Boeing +13%, Thos Cook -4%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 133, US 210, AsPac 88, Eur 102.  Index previous month: WW 127, US 193, AsPac 90, Eur 97.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

29 November 2013
The July ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +2% over the same month in 2012. Previous month +1%.

28 November 2013
-Taiwan’s convention and exhibition association is offering subsidies to attract meetings producers. This can be up to US$16k for a bid, and up to US$90k for implementation of meeting. The total budget is US$6.7mn (NT$200mn).
-Kaohsiung’s new conference centre is due to open April 2014.
-Taichung is planning a conference centre.

27 November 2013
US international air passenger traffic +4% in July - Europe +1%, Asia +5%. YTD 108.0mn passengers, +4% - US nationals 48.8mn (+3%, 45% share), non-nationals 59.1mn (+5%), US airlines sold 58.3mn seats (+3%, 54%), non-US 50.0mn (+5%).

26 November 2013
Airport traffic, October:
-Dubai 5.67mn +15.1%.
-London Heathrow 6.29mn +4.6%.
-Singapore 4.41mn +3.2%.

25 November 2013
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in September, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +0.2% for AF+KL, +0.6% BA+IB, +3.4% LH+LX+OS.

22 November 2013
Our YTD through June calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +0.7% (all airports +2.9%). Last month: +5.0% (+6.9%).

21 November 2013
US updates:
-GBTA (Global Business Travel Association) forecasts business-travel spend in the US will grow 7.2% to US$288.8bn in 2014. International is forecast to grow 12.4% to US$36.6bn.
  Group trip spend (in this case, on MICE travel), is forecast to grow 7.2% to US$124.1bn.
-Visitors to the US spent US$11.5bn, +6%, within the US in September, and US$3.4bn, +4%, on fares on US airlines and ships.
-US travel agencies sold air tickets worth US$7.3mn, +4.1%, in October.

20 November 2013
The August hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.7; AsPac 3.7; Europe 0.1; US 1.4. Previous month: 0.7; -1.1; 2.3; 1.1.

19 November 2013
Aviation updates:
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) sold 2.53mn seats, +5.3%, in October.
-Easyjet sold 60.8mn seats, +4.0%, in its year through September.

18 November 2013
The September ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 122; AsPac 89; Europe 95; US 183. (Base: Dec 06.)

15 November 2013
US airline RPKs in October:
-American +4.4%.
-Southwest +1.3%.
-United +3.1%.

14 November 2013
Aviation updates:
-Air France/KLM sold 6.9mn seats, +2.0%, in October.
-Emirates sold 21.5mn seats, +15%, in its first-half Apr-Sep.
-Frankfurt airport handled 5.4mn passengers, +3.5%, in October.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs were +8.9% in October.

13 November 2013
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Aug +1E; Jul +2P; Jun +2.2; May +1.4; Apr +0.4; Mar +3.4; Feb +0.7; Jan +2.8. 2012: Dec +2.4; Nov +3.5; Oct +2.7; Sep +1.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

12 November 2013
Travel counts:
-Air Asia X sold 2.15mn seats, +12.4%, over Jan-Sep. (The airline sometimes reports higher growth after changing counting methods for this purpose.)
-London Heathrow handled 6.3mn passengers, +4.6%, in October.
-Pegasus Solutions reports hotel leisure bookings were -1.3%, rates +2.3% in October. Corporate bookings were flat, rates +0.5%.

11 November 2013
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Aug +6E; Jul +4P; Jun +6.1; May +4.0; Apr +3.0; Mar +6.4; Feb +6.7; Jan +3.4. 2012: Dec +7.0; Nov +8.8; Oct +6.0; Sep +6.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

8 November 2013
Aviation updates:
-ACI says passenger traffic at airports in Europe was +3.2% in Q3.
-Easyjet sold 5.53mn seats, +5.4%, in October.
-Frankfurt airport handled 44.2mn passengers, +0.2%, over Jan-Sep.

7 November 2013
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Aug +5E; Jul +1P; Jun +4.7; May +4.0; Apr +0.0; Mar +2.1; Feb +2.5; Jan -1.4. 2012: Dec +1.7; Nov +1.9; Oct +0.4; Sep +3.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

6 November 2013
Aviation updates:
-IATA (International Air Transport Association) said world RPKs were +5.5% in September.
-JAL Group RPKs were +4.5% in H1 (Apr-Sep).
-Ryanair sold 8.02mn seats, +6.3%, in October.

5 November 2013
ICCA (International Congress and Convention Association) says that the MICE-segment it tracks - internationally-rotating association meetings – has been increasing 100% every 10 years for the past 50 years.
  ICCA now tracks meetings over 5-year periods to remove annual fluctuations. Travel Business Analyst started doing this in 2001, with data from 1997, since when we have been constantly converting ICCA’s single-year counts into 5-year averages.

4 November 2013
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2013: Aug +4E; Jul +3E; Jun +4.6; May +3.5; Apr +1.3; Mar +5.3; Feb +3.4; Jan +1.9. 2012: Dec +4.5; Nov +5.6; Oct +3.7; Sep +4.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

1 November 2013
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in October. Airlines: biggest growth, American 57%; biggest fall, SAS -24%. Hotels: Jinjiang +33%, NH -4%. Others: Boeing +13%, Thos Cook -4%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, SAS 100% (yes); biggest fall, Aer Lingus -14%. Hotels: Accor +11%, Banyan -1%. Others: Eurotunnel +20%, Carnival -10%.
  Index: WW 127, US 193, AsPac 90, Eur 97.  Index previous month: WW 122, US 183, AsPac 89, Eur 95.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

31 October 2013
Data* from IPK’s World Travel Monitor for Jan-Aug this year:
-the MICE segment grew 6%.
-What IPK calls “conventional business travel” fell 10%.
-“Culturally motivated travel such as city breaks” grew 8%. We disagree that all ‘city breaks’ can be defined as ‘culturally-motivated’.
-Beach holidays grew 5%.
  IPK continues its non-travel observations, which to us seem exaggerated, viz:
-“There is still a risk of national economies going bankrupt and the world’s financial system collapsing.”
-Despite the “unsettled economic situation”, the volume of travel will “continue to grow and for the most part will result in more people from the new economies undertaking their first trips”. A ‘settled’ economic situation does not exist – unless IPK has its own definition, such as the top-30 economies all growing?
Notes: IPK did not answer our requests for clarification, leaving us to interpret its data and comments as best we can.
* A full report on this topic in the current issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter highlights some important observations on the data as presented.

30 October 2013
Travel data in September:
-IATA (International Air Transport Association) said traffic (RPKs) grew 5.5%. International +5.7% (Asia Pacific +8.5%, Europe +3.4%, North America +2.3%). Domestic +5.1% (US +1.4%, China +10.6%, Japan +7.8%, Brazil +1.0%, India +16.4%, Australia +2.6%).
-Pegasus Solutions reports world hotel bookings for business travel grew +4.4% with rates +0.3%. Leisure bookings grew +0.6% with rates +4.7%.

29 October 2013
The June ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +1% over the same month in 2012. Previous month +1%.

28 October 2013
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in August, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +1.2% for AF+KL, +1.7% BA+IB, +0.3% LH+LX+OS.

25 October 2013
Our YTD through May calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +5.0% (all airports +6.9%). Last month: -0.3% (+0.4%).

24 October 2013
The July hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 0.7; AsPac -1.1; Europe 2.3; US 1.1. Previous month: 3.7; 0.4; 5.1; -0.4.

23 October 2013
Travel counts:
-Visitor arrivals in the US were 5.6mn , -2%, in April.
-Cathay Pacific (including Dragonair) sold 2.38mn seats, +6%, in September.
-Singapore airport handled 4.3mn passengers, +6.9%, in September.
-Emirates expects to sell 70mn seats in 2020. It is now selling about 40mn annually.

22 October 2013
The August ‘TBA Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 113; AsPac 84; Europe 89; US 167. (Base: Dec 06.)

21 October 2013
News Briefs from Time (Tourism Indonesia Mart & Expo) held in Padang, West Sumatra, over the weekend:

  • Garuda.

-New routes from Jakarta: postponed plans to fly to Mumbai; due to restart nonstop London in 2014 with B777s; also in 2014 may start Manila, and Ho Chi Minh City but via Singapore.
-Plans to join the Skyteam alliance in 2014.
-May start Padang-Singapore flights, but with a stop, and with smaller aircraft. It is due to take delivery of two 70-seat ATR aircraft this December.
-Spent US$313,000 (at US$1 to Rph11,485) this year to support the Time event.

  • West Sumatra.

-The current tourism promotion budget is US$2.78mn.
-Expecting nearly 37k direct foreign visitor arrivals this year, up 9%, and forecasts 20% increase in 2014. Another source said 45k are expected this year.
  That count is based entirely on arrivals from the only international flight into Padang, from Kuala Lumpur. About 50% of arrivals are Malaysian .
-Padang airport handled 2.6mn passengers, up 28% , in 2012, of which 254,000, up 78%, were international. In the first half of this year – total 1.2mn +1%, international 79k +11%. This indicates over 70% of the international traffic is in the second half of the year.
-Length-of-stay for foreign visitors is 2.94 days .
-A conference centre is planned in Padang, due to open 2014.

  • Air France is due to start flights to Jakarta in 2014.
  • The 2014 Time is planned for Pekanbaru, also in Sumatra. Target is for 15% growth in buyers and sellers.

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Current Issues...

Main contents in current issues of our newsletters and reports:

Travel Business Analyst, Asia Pacific: Travel stock prices review; Hotels, Others. Key results 2013. Plus: Market Monitor; World Travel Industry Index; ZERO; Market Headlines; Market Outlook; and 20 regular tables of market data.


Travel Business Analyst, Europe: Travel stock prices; AsPac, US. Germany outbound. Europe’s cruise market. Plus: Market Monitor; World Travel Industry Index; ZERO; Extracts from Net Value or People-in-Travel; Market Headlines; and 16 regular tables of market data.


Net Value: AsPac by PCW; Europe by PCW; Amadeus results; others.


People-in-Travel: Robert Warman; new Lufthansa people; others.


Foxtrots/Trottings (recent): Trottings To Taiwan; Singapore & Silk Slip; Etihad mini-Etihad.


ZERO (occasional): Europe fails again; Frankfurt airport; eTaxi.

 

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