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Sources for information shown in this section are generally the companies or associations concerned, and may not be marked. Other sources marked. Travel Business Analyst is marked 'TBA'.

 

Travel industry updates
2 September 2015
-Cologne Jan-Jun visitors 1.65mn +6%, producing 2.88mn overnights +8%.
-Dubai airport July passengers handled 6.68mn +29.6%. Management says YTD total is 45.0mn +12.9%; our calculations indicate 51.2mn +14.1%.
-New Singapore data we have seen shows a turnaround in July in air passengers. Up 8% with particularly-strong growth on Thailand +18%, China +15%, Malaysia +11%, Japan +10%. But even the largest, Indonesia, was up, +3%.
  YTD is touching +2%. Not great, but nevertheless may indicate the end of Singapore’s 18-month hiccup.

Travel Stocks
1 September 2015
Some serious falls in August. Our Travel Stocks Index shows AsPac has fallen 25% on end-2000 prices! And stockmarkets were in trouble also; the fastest growth was Dublin’s – but even that was down 2%!
  Read on.
  Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in August. Airlines: biggest growth, Wizz +9%; biggest fall, Air Asia -36%. Hotels: MGM +4%, Wynn -27%. Others: Hertz +8%, Kuoni -25%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, ANA +16%; biggest fall, Turkish -17%. Hotels: MGM +6%, Jinjiang -23%. Others: Royal Caribbean +14%, eDreams -26%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 165, US 296, AsPac 76, Eur 124.  Index previous month: WW 175, US 302, AsPac 93, Eur 131. NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 123; previous month 127.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Dublin -2% (sic!); biggest fall, Hong Kong -12%. Previous month: Zurich +6%; Hong Kong -6%. 
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

Travel Intelligence, Travel Pursuits
31 August 2015
Travel Intelligence
-Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia, page 6, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10041998#/6

Travel Pursuits
-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia, page 26 , compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10041998#/26

Seat sales by top-3 no-frills-airlines
28 August 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top no-frills-airlines (in each of 3 regions) in June, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: (Q2 only for) Air Asia +9.9%; Ryanair +14.1%; Southwest +4.5%.

AsPac travel industry updates
27 August 2015
-Air Asia seats sold Q2 5.95mn +7%.
-Air New Zealand’s loyalty program has 1.9mn members +17%.
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) July seats sold 2.98mn +6.9%.
-JAL Group Japan summer vacation (Aug 7-16) international seats sold 274,000 +1.7%, domestic 1.08mn +3.8%.

World hotel results
26 August 2015
The May hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 0.2; AsPac 0.7; Europe -0.5; US 0.5. Previous month: World 1.3; AsPac -3.4; Europe -1.2; US 1.1.

Travel industry updates
25 August 2015
-Aeroflot Group seats sold Jan-Jul 22.1mn +13.3%; Aeroflot 14.6mn +9.8%.
-Europe air seats sold Q3 forecast +5.4%. Source: European Cities Marketing, Forward Keys.
-SAS’s loyalty program has 4mn members; growth not given.
-US international air seats sold Jan-Jul 121.6mn +5%.
-US nationals overseas outbound (excluding Canada, Mexico) June 3.7mn +5%, Jan-Jun 16.2mn +5%.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
24 August 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in June, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -0.9% for AF+KL+A5, +9.1% BA+IB+VY, +2.6% LH+LX+OS.

Travel Indices
21 August 2015
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in July for US hotel companies was 3639, -1.4%.
  The ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ for July shows: World 175; AsPac 93; Europe 131; US 302.
  The ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in July, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 127.
  The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at January 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ is based on 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ is based on 100 at December 2014.

Travel industry updates
20 August 2015
-When counts are counted for this month, they should show that Ryanair in Europe has overtaken Southwest in the US to become the largest NFA (no-frills-airline) in the world. Caveats – there are bigger FSAs (full-service-airlines; China Southern is one), and on a YTD basis, SW will still be bigger than Ryan.
-International June air seat sales +3.0%. Source: IATA.

Index, travel stocks
19 August 2015
The July ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 175; AsPac 93; Europe 131; US 302. (Base: Dec 06.)

US travel industry updates
18 August 2015
-Visitor spend Jan-Jun was US$112.2bn +1%.
-July occupancy 75.3% +2.3%, average room rate US$124.32 +5.9%. Source: STR.
-Travel agency July air ticket sales US$7.4bn -1.6%. Source: ARC.

Hotel-room pipeline
17 August 2015
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for July, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline has grown: World +7%, US +11%, AsPac +6%, Eur -10%.

Asia Pacific inbound/outbound
14 August 2015
Our calculation of AsPac visitor arrivals/resident departures for April/May, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: +4.1%/+9.8%. Arrivals boosted by big growth in Japan, Thailand, outbound by China’s big numbers (although its growth is slowing).

Index, travel numbers, US
13 August 2015
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: May +4E; Apr +3.7P; Mar +4.1; Feb +3.9; Jan +2.9. 2014: Dec +4.8; Nov +3.6; Oct +4.5; Sep +5.0; Aug +3.8; Jul +5.3; Jun +5.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Index, travel numbers, Asia Pacific
12 August 2015
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: May +5E; Apr +3.4P; Mar +4.9; Feb +2.1; Jan +3.2. 2014: Dec +4.3; Nov +2.1; Oct +4.0; Sep +4.3; Aug +5.7; Jul +5.3; Jun +4.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates
11 August 2015
-Air Asia X Q2 seats sold 0.81mn -20.4%.
-Air Berlin July seats sold 3.25mn -3.2%.
-Air France-KLM July seats sold 7.6mn +1.3%.
-Copenhagen airport Jan-Jun passengers handled 12.3mn +0.0%.
-Easy Jet July seats sold 7.04mn +9.4%.
-Frankfurt airport July passengers handled 6.2mn +6.6%.
-London July Heathrow airport passengers handled 7.29mn +4.7%.
-IATA member airlines June RPKs +5.7%.
-SAS July seats sold 2.6mn +0.8%.
-Southwest Airlines July RPKs +8.2%.
-United Airlines July RPKs +2.8%.
-There were 5.0mn available hotel rooms in the US from July. The industry reached 3.0mn in June 1987, 4.0mn in March 1999. Source: STR.

Index, travel numbers, Europe
10 August 2015
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: May +6E; Apr +6.4P; Mar +6.6; Feb +7.2; Jan +6.8. 2014: Dec +5.5; Nov +6.1; Oct +3.2; Sep +4.7; Aug +4.3; Jul +3.5; Jun +6.0. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

First-half industry updates
7 August 2015
-ACI reports Europe airports passengers handled +4.5%.
-IATA reports RPKs +6.3%.
-US international seats sold 100.7mn +5%; overseas 73.3mn +4%.

Index, travel numbers, world
6 August 2015
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: May +5E; Apr +4.8P; Mar +5.0; Feb +4.5; Jan +4.2. 2014: Dec +5.8; Nov +4.3; Oct +4.5; Sep +4.9; Aug +4.9; Jul +4.8; Jun +4.8. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates
5 August 2015
-ACI reports Jun Europe airports passengers handled +3.2%.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) July RPKs +9.4%.
-IATA reports Jun RPKs +5.7%.
-Ryanair July seats sold 10.1mn +10.4%.
-STR forecasts 2016 US hotel occupancy will be 66.0% +0.8%, average room rate +5.2% (no figure given).

TBA Travel-Tech-Stocks Index
4 August 2015
Our ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in July, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 127. Last month 125. (Base: Dec 14.)

Travel Stocks
3 August 2015
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in July. Airlines: biggest growth, ANA +16%; biggest fall, Turkish -17%. Hotels: MGM +6%, Jinjiang -23%. Others: Royal Caribbean +14%, eDreams -26%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Turkish +20%; biggest fall, Air Asia -29%. Hotels: NH +16%, Jinjiang -12%. Others: Carnival +8%, Kuoni -17%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 175, US 302, AsPac 93, Eur 131.  Index previous month: WW 168, US 285, AsPac 93, Eur 125. NVTT (Net Value Travel Tech) Stocks Index: 127; last month 155.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Zurich +6%; biggest fall, Hong Kong -6%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

TBA All-Travel Index
31 July 2015
The March ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +6% over the same month in 2014. Previous month +12%.

Travel industry updates
30 July 2015
-Aeroflot Jan-Jun seats sold 17.9mn +14.0%.
-London Heathrow airport Jan-Jun passengers handled 35.5mn +1.3%.
-Singapore airport June passengers handled 4.70mn +1.0%, Jan-Jun 26.6mn +0.2%.
-US nationals May outbound travellers 6.3mn +5%.

Seat sales by top-3 no-frills-airlines
29 July 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top no-frills-airlines (in each of 3 regions) in May, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: (Q1 only for) Air Asia +3.5%; Ryanair +15.9%; Southwest +6.3%.

Travel industry updates
28 July 2015
-Dubai airport June passengers handled 5.9mn +16.7%, Jan-Jun 38.3mn +10.4%.
-STR reports US Q2 hotel occupancy 69.1% +1.6%, average room rate US$120.60 +4.8%.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
27 July 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in May, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +1.9% for AF+KL+A5, +9.2% BA+IB+VY, +4.0% LH+LX+OS.

Travel Indices
24 July 2015
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in June for US hotels was 3693, -3.2%.
  The ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ for June shows 168 for World, 285 for US, 125 for Europe, 93 for Asia Pacific.
  The ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in June, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 155.
  The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at January 2000, the ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ is based on 100 at December 2006, the ‘Net-Value Travel-Tech Index’ is based on 100 at December 2014.

First-half travel industry updates
23 July 2015
-Aeroflot seats sold 17.9mn +14.0%.
-Miami airport passengers handled 21.9mn +5.8%.
-ARC reports air ticket sales by US-based travel agencies US$48.0bn -0.9%.

Airport passengers in Europe
22 July 2015
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for March, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +15.2% (all airports +5.6%). Last month: +14.3% (+5.0%).

Travel industry updates
21 July 2015
-Aeroflot June seats sold 3.7mn +10.6%.
-IATA reports May RPKs +6.2%; economy class +6.4%, premium classes +4.1%.
-STR reports June US hotel occupancy 73.1% +2.1%, average room rate US$121.57 +5.0%.
-ARC reports June air ticket sales by US-based travel agencies US$7.6bn +0.3%.

World hotel results
20 July 2015
The April hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.3; AsPac -3.4; Europe -1.2; US 1.1. Previous month: World 1.0; AsPac -2.8; Europe 2.5; US 1.5.

Travel industry updates
17 July 2015
-American June RPKs +2.8%.
-Cathay Pacific (with Dragonair) June seats sold 2.81mn +7.6%.
-Frankfurt airport June passengers handled 5.7mn +2.8%, Jan-Jun 28.9mn +4.1%.
-London Heathrow airport Jan-Jun handled 6.68mn passengers, +1.1%.
-London Stansted airport Jan-Jun handled 21.5mn passengers, +16.5%.
-United June RPKs +1.3%.
-US Jan-May international travellers spent US$63.0bn +6%.
-US Jan-May international visitors spent US$93.5bn +1%.

Hotel-room pipeline, Travel Pursuits
16 July 2015
Hotel-room pipeline
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for June, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline has grown: World +7%, US +11%, AsPac +7%, Eur -10%.
Travel Pursuits
-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia, page 28, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10041547#/28

Travel Intelligence
15 July 2015
-Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia, page 8, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10041547#/8

Index, travel numbers, US
14 July 2015
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Apr +4E; Mar +4.1P; Feb +3.9; Jan +2.9. 2014: Dec +4.8; Nov +3.6; Oct +4.5; Sep +5.0; Aug +3.8; Jul +5.3; Jun +5.3; May +5.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Index, travel numbers, Asia Pacific
13 July 2015
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Apr +4E; Mar +4.4P; Feb +2.0; Jan +3.4. 2014: Dec +4.3; Nov +2.1; Oct +4.0; Sep +4.3; Aug +5.7; Jul +5.3; Jun +4.6; May +7.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Fox-on-Friday
10 July 2015
Link to a report entitled WYSK (What You Should Know) in the Fox-on-Friday blog. Contains critical observations on Greece, Tunisia. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/category/fox-on-friday/

Travel industry updates
9 July 2015
-Air France group (AF KLM Hop) June seats sold 7.1mn -0.9%.
-Europe May airport passengers +5.6%. Source: ACI.
-Easyjet June seats sold 6.56mn +7.6%.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) June RPKs +6.7%.
-IATA member airlines’ May RPKs +6.9%.
-Ryanair June seats sold 9.5mn +14%.
-SAS June seats sold 2.8mn. Change not given; we estimate -3.8%.
-Southwest June RPKs +6.9%.
-Worldwide visitor arrivals Jan-Apr 332mn +4.4%. Source: WTO.

Index, travel numbers, Europe
8 July 2015
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Apr +6E; Mar +6.4P; Feb +7.0; Jan +6.7. 2014: Dec +5.5; Nov +6.1; Oct +3.2; Sep +4.7; Aug +4.3; Jul +3.5; Jun +6.0; May +3.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Index, travel numbers, world
7 July 2015
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Apr +4E; Mar +4.6P; Feb +4.4; Jan +4.3. 2014: Dec +5.8; Nov +4.3; Oct +4.5; Sep +4.9; Aug +4.9; Jul +4.8; Jun +4.8; May +5.7. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

TBA Travel-Tech-Stocks Index
6 July 2015
Our ‘TBA Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in June, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 155.

Fox-on-Friday
3 July 2015
Link to a report entitled WYSK (What You Should Know) in the Fox-on-Friday blog. Contains comment on Tunisia. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/category/fox-on-friday/

Aviation updates
2 July 2015
-IATA member airlines May RPKs grew 6.9%.
-Ryanair June seat sales 9.5mn +14%.
-US Jan-May international seat sales 81.7mn +5%.

Travel Stocks
1 July 2015
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in June. Airlines: biggest growth, Turkish +20%; biggest fall, Air Asia -29%. Hotels: NH +16%, Jinjiang -12%. Others: Carnival +8%, Kuoni -17%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Ryanair +11%; biggest fall, American -12%. Hotels: Melia +6%, Wynn -9%. Others: Expedia +14%, Avis -6%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 168, US 285, AsPac 93, Eur 125.  Index previous month: WW 177, US 297, AsPac 103, Eur 130. TBA Travel Tech Stocks Index: 155.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Wellington -0.1% (sic); biggest fall, Stockholm -6%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

TBA All-Travel Index
30 June 2015
The February ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +12% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +4%.

Seat sales by top-3 no-frills-airlines
29 June 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top no-frills-airlines (in each of 3 regions) in April, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: (Q1 only for) Air Asia +3.5%; Ryanair +15.4%; Southwest +6.2%.

Seat sales by Europe’s airline groups, Fox-on-Friday
26 June 2015
Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in April, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -2.0% for AF+KL+A5, +7.9% BA+IB+VY, +6.7% LH+LX+OS.

Fox-on-Friday
Link to a report entitled WYSK (What You Should Know) in the Fox-on-Friday blog. Contains critical comment on Statistical Shocks - China waves; Milan’s airports; Dysfunction Singapore Airlines; Tokyo’s airports. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/category/fox-on-friday/

Travel industry updates
25 June 2015
-Aeroflot seats sold May 3.3mn +14.1%.
-US nationals outbound travel April 5.5mn +7%.
-Thailand visitor arrivals January-May 12.4mn +25%.
-IAPCO reports meetings organised by members grew from 2153 in 2010 to a “current” 3111. We calculate that to be an average 8.5% annual growth.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional information and analysis on the data shown here.
-STR reports US hotels occupancy May 67.5% +0.8%, average room rate US$120.64 +5.0%.
-IATA reports premium international RPKs April +4.9%; neither totals nor share published.

Airport passengers in Europe
23 June 2015
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for February, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +14.3% (all airports +5.0%). Last month: +11.5% (+5.0%).

World hotel results
22 June 2015
The March hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 1.0; AsPac -2.8; Europe 2.5; US 1.5. Previous month: World -0.8; AsPac -4.4; Europe 0.2; US 2.0.

Fox-on-Friday
19 June 2015
Link to a report entitled WYSK (What You Should Know) in the Fox-on-Friday blog. Contains critical observations on ICCA changing its figures, and puzzles from PATA. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/category/fox-on-friday/

Travel industry updates
18 June 2015
-Cathay (with Dragonair) May seats sold 2.90mn, +11.8%.
-Frankfurt airport May passengers handled 5.6mn, +5.4%.
-ARC reports May US travel agency ticket sales US$8.5bn, -5%.

Index, travel stocks
17 June 2015
The April ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 180; AsPac 104; Europe 130; US 306. (Base: Dec 06.)

Hotel-room pipeline
16 June 2015
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for May, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline has grown: World +7%, US +12%, AsPac +7%, Eur -11%.

Index, travel numbers, US
15 June 2015
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Mar +5E; Feb +4.2P; Jan +4.0. 2014: Dec +4.8; Nov +3.6; Oct +4.5; Sep +5.0; Aug +3.8; Jul +5.3; Jun +5.3; May +5.6; Apr +6.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Asia Pacific travel index, Travel Indices, Fox-on-Friday
12 June 2015
Index, travel numbers, Asia Pacific
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Mar +5E; Feb +2.0P; Jan +3.4. 2014: Dec +4.3; Nov +2.1; Oct +4.0; Sep +4.3; Aug +5.7; Jul +5.3; Jun +4.6; May +7.5; Apr +6.2. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)
Travel Indices
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in May for US hotels was 3817, -1.3%. The TBA All-Travel Index for May shows 177 for World, 297 for US, 130 for Europe, 103 for Asia Pacific.
  The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at January 2000; the TBA All-Travel Index is based on 100 at December 2006.
Fox-on-Friday
Link to a report entitled ‘WYSK (What You Should Know)’ in the Fox-on-Friday blog contains critical observations on China’s visitor miscounts and Singapore Airlines’ group dysfunction. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/category/fox-on-friday/

Travel industry updates
11 June 2015
-ACI reports April Europe airport passengers +3.2%.
-Lodging Econometrics reports that 70% of the hotel room pipeline in Asia Pacific is in China, with 1700 projects and 435,000 rooms - with Beijing alone having 95 projects with 13,600 rooms.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.
-SAS May seats sold 2.4mn -7.3%.
-US commerce department forecasts 2015 visitors 77.6mn +3.6%.
-For this year, WTO forecasts +3-4% for world visitor arrivals - Asia Pacific +4-5%, Europe +3-4%, Americas +4-5%.

Travel industry updates
10 June 2015
-Air Berlin May seats sold 2.84mn -4.3%.
-Air France group (AF, Hop, KLM; not Transavia) May seats sold 6.8mn +3.2%.
-American May RPKs +0.7%.
-Easyjet May seats sold 6.49mn +7.2%.
-IPK International for ITB Berlin says ‘luxury travel’ (short trips with nightly spend at least US$833 (at US$1 to €0.90), long trips US$556) totalled 46mn visitor arrivals in 2014. Growth not given.
  IPKI puts growth at 48% over five years. That would be an annual average rate of 8.2%. That period is an awkward one to choose, as it probably shows big improvement after 2008/9 slowdown in travel. Total travel over that same period (we are assuming 2010-14; IPK does not say) +3.6%.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

Index, travel numbers, Europe
9 June 2015
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Mar +7E; Feb +7.0P; Jan +6.7. 2014: Dec +5.5; Nov +6.1; Oct +3.2; Sep +4.7; Aug +4.3; Jul +3.5; Jun +6.0; May +3.5; Apr +5.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Asia outbound confuses IPKI/ITBB
8 June 2015
IPK International and ITB Berlin continue their hard-to-understand analysis of travel movements. Viz:
-Outbound trips from Asia grew 8% in 2014, which IPKI/ITBB put at double world growth.
-Japan’s share of outbound trips fell “considerably, due to deflation”. No data given to clarify ‘considerably’. Japan has had deflation since 1990, since when outbound travel has grown fast in some periods – so this is not the reason for the current fall. Also, IPKI/ITBB blame deflation for a fall in share – although ‘share’ is a mathematical measure.
-India, Korea, Taiwan “reported steady growth”. No data. Also, India does not report outbound data, so IPKI/ITBB may be using their own sources.
-“[Most; 75%] Asians preferred to holiday on their own continent”. Another conflict on nationality and total travel. Here, IPKI/ITBB categorise travel as ‘holiday’, where most other has been all sectors; this may simply be a mistake.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

Fox-on-Friday
5 June 2015
-Link to a report entitled ‘WYSK: Macau undercooked; City visitor counts’ in the Fox-on-Friday blog contains comment on What You Should Know – critical observations on problems for the Big Mac destination, and a new ranking of city arrivals. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/category/fox-on-friday/

Travel industry updates
4 June 2015
-Air Asia Q1 seats sold were 5.5mn, +3.1%. AA group 11.9mn, +3.5%.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) May RPKs grew 5.7%.
-IATA reports April RPKs grew 5.9%.
-Jet Airways Apr 14-Mar 15 seats sold were 22.5mn, +9.6%.
-Ryanair May seats sold were 9.5mn, +16%.

Index, travel numbers, world
3 June 2015
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Mar +5E; Feb +5.1P; Jan +5.2. 2014: Dec +5.8; Nov +4.3; Oct +4.5; Sep +4.9; Aug +4.9; Jul +4.8; Jun +4.8; May +5.7; Apr +6.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

TBA Travel-Tech-Stocks Index, US updates
2 June 2015
TBA Travel-Tech-Stocks Index
Our ‘TBA Travel-Tech Index’ for travel stocks of OTAs (+Amadeus) in April, in the current editions of our monthly Net Value report, was at 136. Last month 135.

US updates:
-STR/Tourism Economics forecast 2015 hotel occupancy will be 65.3%, +1.4%, and average room rate US$120.93, +5.2%.
-Jan-Apr overseas (all except Canada, Mexico) air passengers 45.5mn, 71% of all international, +4%.
-Detailed analysis of visitors in 2014 now available. A selection*:
  -Most visited state: New York, 9.98mn, +2%.
  -Most visited city: New York 9.74mn, +2%.
  -Trip purpose: Leisure 23.5mn + 10%; VFR 10.4mn + 13%; Business 5.2mn +5%; Convention 3.0mn, flat.
-Average number of states visited 1.5, +0.1.
-Length of stay 18.4 nights, +0.9.
-Travel party size 1.7, +0.1.
-First-time travellers 23.8%, +0.1pt.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

Travel Stocks
1 June 2015
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in May. Airlines: biggest growth, Ryanair +11%; biggest fall, American -12%. Hotels: Melia +6%, Wynn -9%. Others: Expedia +14, Avis -6%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, China Southern +39% (sic); biggest fall, Jet AW -22%. Hotels: ShangriLa +11%, Wynn -11%. Others: CTS +37% (sic), Royal Caribbean -16%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 177, US 297, AsPac 103, Eur 130.  Index previous month: WW 180, US 306, AsPac 104, Eur 130.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Tokyo +5%; biggest fall, Kuala Lumpur -4%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

Fox-on-Friday
29 May 2015
-Link to a report entitled ‘WYSK: Jumeirah Hotels. Chrisis is Coming!’ in the Fox-on-Friday blog contains comment on What You Should Know – critical observations on Jumeirah’s not-flawless leader, and some worrying airline results. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/category/fox-on-friday/

TBA All-Travel Index
28 May 2015
The January ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +4% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +5%.

Ryanair, Top-3 no-frills-airlines
27 May 2015
Ryanair annual report
-Ryanair fiscal year thru March: 90.6mn seats sold, +11%; seat factor 88%, +5pts. Target 2015/16 +10% seats sold.

Seat sales by top-3 no-frills-airlines
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top no-frills-airlines (in each of 3 regions) in March, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows Ryanair +28.2% (sic), Southwest +5.7%, (and Q4 ’14 only) Air Asia +2.2%.

Ryanair gets bigger, Travel Intelligence
26 May 2015
Ryanair gets bigger
Ryanair, which became Europe’s biggest single airline in seats sold in 2009, overtook the 2nd-biggest group Air France (which includes AF, Hop, KLM, Transavia) in Q1. It is on track to overtake the largest group, Lufthansa’s, in Q2.
  (Ryanair, in seats sold, overtook British in 2006, Air France + KLM (for long their data has not been separated, probably because of weaker AF counts) in 2007, and Lufthansa in 2009.)

Travel Intelligence
Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia, page 6, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst. On:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10041215#/6

 

Europe’s big-3 airline groups, Travel Pursuits
25 May 2015
Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in March, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows -0.4% for AF+KL+A5, +10.5% BA+IB+VY, -0.2% LH+LX+OS.

Travel Pursuits
Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia, page 26, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst. On: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10041215#/26

 

Airport passengers, Fox-on-Friday
22 May 2015
Airport passengers in Europe
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +11.5% (all airports +5.7%). Last month: +13.3% (+5.2%).

Fox-on-Friday
-Link to a report entitled ‘WYSK: China Southern, Tahiti’ in the Fox-on-Friday blog contains comment on What You Should Know – critical observations on China Southern and Tahiti. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/category/fox-on-friday/

 

Travel industry updates
21 May 2015
-Aeroflot April seats sold were 2.9mn, +15.1%.
-Air Asia X Q1 RPKs were -17%.
-Airlines for America forecasts 222mn seat sales, +4.5%, on US airlines this summer, Jun 1 – Aug 31.
-Cathay (with Dragonair) April seats sold were 2.91mn, +7.7%.
-IATA reports March premium international travel (presumed to be RPKs) +4.4%; +7.8% in Europe.

US updates:
20 May 2015
-US nationals March outbound travel was +7%.
-US travel agency April sales were US$8.3bn, -1.2%.
-The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in April for US hotels was 3868, -1.5%.

World hotel results
19 May 2015
The February hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World -0.8; AsPac -4.4; Europe 0.2; US 2.0. Previous month: World 2.9; AsPac 2.3; Europe 4.3; US 2.2.

Hotel-room pipeline
18 May 2015
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for April, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline has grown: World +8%, US +15%, AsPac +7%, Eur -6%.

US Travel Index, Fox-on-Friday
15 May 2015
Index, travel numbers, US
-Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Feb +4E; Jan +4.0P. 2014: Dec +4.8; Nov +3.6; Oct +4.5; Sep +5.0; Aug +3.8; Jul +5.3; Jun +5.3; May +5.6; Apr +6.6; Mar +1.4. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Fox-on-Friday
-Link to a report entitled ‘WYSK: ICCA, PATA’ in the Fox-on-Friday blog contains comment on What You Should Know – critical observations on ICCA and PATA. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/category/fox-on-friday/

Travel industry updates
14 May 2015
-Air Berlin April seat sales: 2.36mn, -7.6%.
-Air France-KLM April seat sales: 6.5mn, - 2.0%.
-American April RPKs: -0.3%.
-Copenhagen airport Q1 passengers handled: 5.4mn, +1.8%.
-Easyjet April seat sales: 6.01mn, +3.8%.
-Frankfurt airport Q1 passengers handled: 12.5mn +2.7%.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) April RPKs: +4.0%.
-PATA reports that there were 550mn visitors, +6%, in Asia Pacific in 2014.
-SAS April seat sales: 2.2mn, -9.6%.
-Southwest April RPKs: +8.6%.
-Turkish Q1 seat sales: 12.8mn, +6.5%.
-United April RPKs: +0.4%.
-Europe airports March passengers handled: +5.5%.
-Europe airports Q1 passengers handled: +5.2%.

ICCA’s ranking changes
13 May 2015
A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.
The order of the top-5 cities in Europe for association meetings changed in 2014. A year ago it was Vienna, Paris, Barcelona, Berlin, Madrid. The new count is Paris (an average 184 meetings), Vienna (183), Berlin (166), Barcelona (163), Madrid (159).
  (These are based on 5-year averages. This is what the industry says is the best measuring system. ICCA, which provided the base data for our statistics agrees – but still publishes its lists based on single-year data!)
  ICCA does not say, but overall meetings growth appears to be about 7.5%.
  Although there is great media attention to these numbers, their importance, even in the Meetings segment of the MICE sector, is small.

Travel internet and industry updates
12 May 2015
Travel internet and industry updates
Different reports on these topics are published in our Net Value monthly-report. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.
-As we have noted before, Facebook counts cannot yet be related to business development. For example, Qatar Airways, a small airline, says it now has 8mn fans on Facebook, more fans than any other airline. Its last 4mn were added in six months.
-France-based Magic Event (which targets MICE travellers looking for accommodation other than a hotel) forecasts it will have 30,000 properties (apartments, studios, villas) end-2015, then 100,000 end-2016. It had 2800 end-2014.

Travel industry updates
-Ryanair April seat sales were 9mn, +16%.
-US Q1 international seat sales were 47.1mn, +5%.

Index, travel numbers, Asia Pacific
11 May 2015
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Feb +2E; Jan +2.5P. 2014: Dec +4.3; Nov +2.1; Oct +4.0; Sep +4.3; Aug +5.7; Jul +5.3; Jun +4.6; May +7.5; Apr +6.2; Mar +1.6. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Fast March for airlines
8 May 2015
A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.
IATA reports RPKs +7.4%, crediting the fast growth to “residual impact” of the Lunar New Year holiday.
  We disagree. One, LNY was February 19, and so unlikely to affect much traffic for the following month – starting 10 days after LNY. And two, LNY affects primarily Chinese-related traffic. That includes of course China - and which is big - but hardly Europe, Americas, Africa, Middle East.
  The most likely reason for the fast growth is economies. Growing well in the UK and US, and with renewed confidence in the Eurozone, even if figures are still weak (as IATA notes). Asia Pacific economic results are more nuanced; perhaps the best is to say that the news is not good, but it is not bad either.
  IATA needs to look again.
  Details:
-International +7.0%: Asia Pacific airlines +11.1%, Europe +5.4%, North America +2.7%.
-Domestic +8.0%: Australia +2.9%, Brazil +2.0%, China +22.0%, India +17.9%, Japan +2.3%, Russia +2.7%, US +3.0%.

Index, travel numbers, Europe
7 May 2015
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Feb +6E; Jan +6.6P. 2014: Dec +5.5; Nov +6.1; Oct +3.2; Sep +4.7; Aug +4.3; Jul +3.5; Jun +6.0; May +3.5; Apr +5.3; Mar +1.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel internet updates
6 May 2015
Different reports on these topics are published in our Net Value monthly-report. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.
-Research (from HNN and Sean Hennessy) indicates AirBnB accounted for 5.4% of roomnights in New York in the past year. That would be a 2.9% share.
-In North America, the number of events offering online attendee registration grew 4% in 2014, according to CWT. To us, this seems tiny and might even be cancelled out by the margin of error.
-A SITE survey found 51% think online booking systems for group services will ‘increase’ or ‘substantially increase’ over the next six months. 47% think no change.

Q1: Things you should know
5 May 2015
Some important pointers from some Q1 counts (alphabetical order):
-Air France. Not easy to read figures because definitions changed often. But group seat sales - which include Hop, KLM, Transavia - only +1%. We know T is growing faster, +12% (although it should be better), and we think KLM is growing around 2-3%. That means AF and Hop are in trouble.
-Dubai airport passengers +7%. That is just above the all-2014 rate - +6%.
-Japan’s visitors +44%. A lot is thanks to China (+92%, and +160% in the Lunar New Year month!). Even if the China/Japan political thaw is hardly starting, the Chinese people, it seems, are already voting with their feet.
-Korea outbound. Even though it has just overtaken Japan (this year), it is now already 20% bigger.
-Ryanair, do not forget, is Europe’s biggest airline (of all types). Yet, its seat sales +30%! That makes it the same size as AF+KL and BA+IB, and about to zoom past LH+LX+OS.

Index; travel industry updates
4 May 2015
Index, travel numbers, world
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Feb +5E; Jan +5.1P. 2014: Dec +5.8; Nov +4.3; Oct +4.5; Sep +4.9; Aug +4.9; Jul +4.8; Jun +4.8; May +5.7; Apr +6.4; Mar +1.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates
-Dubai airport handled 6.74mn passengers, +7.2%, in March.
-STR reports US hotel occupancy was 61.1%, +3.1%, average room rate US$117.09, +4.7%, in Q1.

Travel Stocks
1 May 2015
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in April. Airlines: biggest growth, China Southern +39% (sic); biggest fall, Jet AW -22%. Hotels: Shangri-La +11%, Wynn -11%. Others: CTS +37% (sic), Royal Caribbean -16%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Air China +41% (sic); biggest fall, Air Asia -13%. Hotels: NH +9%, Wynn -12%. Others: T Cook +13%, Priceline -7%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 180, US 306, AsPac 104, Eur 130.  Index previous month: WW 179, US 306, AsPac 99, Eur 132.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Hong Kong +13%; biggest fall, Frankfurt -5%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

TBA All-Travel Index
30 April 2015
The December ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +5% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +3%.

Travel industry updates
29 April 2015
-London Heathrow airport handled 16.4mn passengers, +2.0%, in Q1.
-Singapore airport handled 4.54mn passengers, +0.9%, in March.
-Starwood Hotels plans to open 40 hotels in Europe 2015-19.
-United Airlines RPKs were +0.1% in Q1.
-Outbound travel by US nationals to overseas markets 4.2mn, +6%, in February.

Seat sales by top-3 no-frills-airlines
28 April 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top no-frills-airlines (in each of 3 regions) in February, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +4.3% for Southwest, +29.9% (sic) Ryanair, (and Q4 only for) Air Asia, +2.2%.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
27 April 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in February, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +0.8% for AF+KL, +8.0% BA+IB+VY, -1.1% LH+LX+OS.

Travel industry updates
24 April 2015
-Aeroflot sold 1.9mn seats, + 5.6%, in March. The Aeroflot group sold 2.8mn, +14.3%
-Following our questions, Future Market Insights has restated its figures on the world’s car-rental market* - US$51.2bn in 2014 and forecast to be US$106bn in 2020.
*A report on this topic in our Travel Business Analyst newsletter contains some important additional observations on the data shown here.

Airport passengers in Europe
23 April 2015
Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for November, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +13.3% (all airports +5.2%). Last month: +7.8% (+5.0%).

Taiwan Update
22 April 2015
-There has been a 10x increase in five years in visitors from China into Taiwan, although from a tiny base.
  In 2013, China’s share was 36%, growth 11%, and although faster than the overall 10%, not much. Because China was a newish market, and with total-China outbound growing 18%, Taiwan should have been achieving at least 20% growth.
  This was corrected in 2014 – growth was 39% to give China a 40% share. That was well above total China outbound, growing around 15%.
  Direct flights China-Taiwan opened progressively starting 2003, then rapidly from 2008, then from 2009 were more or less entirely open. Now there are an average of 100 flights daily.
-THSR (Taiwan High Speed Rail), which runs 345km Taipei-Kaohsiung, has eight stations; four more are due this year.
  Daily ridership of about 130,000 has decimated air travel; half the air routes between Taipei and the country's western cities had been discontinued. Total domestic air traffic was expected to be halved and the last Taipei-Kaohsiung flight stopped in 2012.
  THSR also affected other modes of transport. After THSR started, non-high-speed train traffic Taipei-Kaohsiung fell 10%. We are surprised it was not more. So this probably indicates that THSR took most of its traffic from air, but see also next.
  The parallel road expressway also lost 10% of its traffic, and long-distance bus companies lost 20-30%.
Notes: Other related reports on Taiwan have appeared in the Foxtrots and Trottings blogs.

World hotel results
20 April 2015
The January hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 2.9; AsPac 2.3; Europe 4.3; US 2.2. Previous month: World 2.0; AsPac -0.2; Europe 3.0; US 2.4.

Updates on Kyoto, Sun Star, ITB/IPK reports
21 April 2015
-Kyoto, Japan targets 3mn foreign visitors in 2020. That would mean annual average growth of 15.0%, and thus the target is unlikely to be reached.
-South Africa’s Sun Star hotel group, capitalising on the memory of the late-president Nelson Mandela, has built (a meritless) art installation overlooking the city. It can hold 100 people.

Some findings in two reports from ITB Berlin and IPK International. One on general outbound (data shown is as given; no consistency in report) and the other on young (15-29 years) and old (not defined; we presume 60+) from Germany and the UK:
-Early bookings (at least four months before departing): From China 8%; Germany 29%; Japan 8%; Netherlands 33%; Russia 6%; UK 28%.
-Last-minute bookings (less than one month before departing). China 62%, compared with 73% year earlier; from France 53% and 51%; Germany 46% NA; Italy 64% 69%; Japan 58% 53%; Russia 73% (same).
-Germany has 19% of the market in Europe for young travellers, UK 9%.
-Germany has 17% of the market in Europe for older travellers, UK 19%.
-Of young from Germany 40% prefer sun and beach, but only 29% of older travellers. Opposite for UK - 29% of young prefer sun and beach, but 40% of older travellers.
-Top-3 destinations are the same for both markets - Spain, France, Italy.

Index, travel stocks
17 April 2015
The March ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 179; AsPac 99; Europe 132; US 306. (Base: Dec 06.)

-Link to a report entitled ‘PAGPFT: GTAC IATA WTO WTTC’ in the Foxtrots blog contains critical comment on banal statements from GTAC – a new creation from IATA, WTO, WTTC. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2015/04/17/pagpft-gtac-iata-wto-wttc/

-Link to a report entitled ‘France Fiddles Figures?’ in the Foxtrots blog contains critical comment on the claim of France’s DMO that it counts more arrivals from the US than does the UK. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2015/04/14/france-fiddles-figures/

Travel industry updates
16 April 2015
-ARC reports that air tickets sold were US$8.7bn, +2.2%, in March.
-ARC reports that air tickets sold were US$24.1bn, +0.2%, over Jan-Mar. Ticket transactions 41.3mn +4.6%, passenger segments 88.5mn, +1.4%.
-PATA forecasts that there will be 547mn visitor arrivals, +6%, in AsPac this year. PATA’s ‘Asia Pacific’ is eclectic, including, for instance, North America except Mexico, and Chile.

-Link to a report entitled ‘Cheating via Kayak, to CarDelMar and Goldcar’ in the Trottings blog on bad client treatment. On: https://tbaoffice.wordpress.com/2015/04/04/trottings-cheating-via-kayak-to-cardelmar-and-goldcar/

Visitor spend totals
15 April 2015
The WTO reports spending in destinations by visitors US$1.245tn, +3.7% (in real terms, taking into account exchange rate fluctuations and inflation) in 2014. And spending by travellers on international passenger transport US$221bn; no growth given.

Hotel-room pipeline
14 April 2015
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for March, the number of hotel rooms in the pipeline has increased: World +7%, US +14%, AsPac +6%, Eur -7%.

-Link to Travel Intelligence column, in TTG Asia, page 6, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10040896#/6

-Link to Travel Pursuits column (travel trade humour, quiz, crossword), in TTG Asia, page 30, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst: http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10040896#/30

Index, travel numbers, US
13 April 2015
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jan +4E. 2014: Dec +5P; Nov +3.6; Oct +4.5; Sep +5.0; Aug +3.8; Jul +5.3; Jun +5.3; May +5.6; Apr +6.6; Mar +1.4; Feb +2.9. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Index, travel numbers, Asia Pacific
10 April 2015
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jan +3E. 2014: Dec +4P; Nov +2.1; Oct +4.0; Sep +4.3; Aug +5.7; Jul +5.3; Jun +4.6; May +7.5; Apr +6.2; Mar +1.6; Feb +5.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates
9 April 2015
-Travel spending (domestic and inbound) in the US grew 4.5% in Q4, compared with GDP growth of 2.2%.
-Easyjet sold 5.49mn seats, +7.5%, in March.
-IATA members’ RPKs were +6.2% in February.
-IAG (British, Iberia, Vueling) RPKs were +7.4% in March.
-Ryanair sold 6.67mn seats, +28%, in March.
-ACI reports airports in Europe handled +5.0% passengers in February.
-Air France-KLM sold 6.3mn seats, -0.4%, in March. Transavia 0.6mn, +9.0%.

Index, travel numbers, Europe
8 April 2015
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jan +7E. 2014: Dec +6P; Nov +6.1; Oct +3.2; Sep +4.7; Aug +4.3; Jul +3.5; Jun +6.0; May +3.5; Apr +5.3; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel Indices
7 April 2015
The Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in March was 3929, -0.2%. The TBA All-Travel Index, for March, shows 179 for World, 306 for US, 132 for Europe, 99 for Asia Pacific.
  The Baird/STR hotel index is based on 1000 at January 2000, the TBA All-Travel Index is based on 100 at December 2006.

Index, travel numbers, world
6 April 2015
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2015: Jan +5E. 2014: Dec +6P; Nov +4.3; Oct +4.5; Sep +4.9; Aug +4.9; Jul +4.8; Jun +4.8; May +5.7; Apr +6.4; Mar +1.5; Feb +5.2. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Travel industry updates
3 April 2015
Different reports on these topics are published in the Travel Business Analyst newsletters, Net Value, People-in-Travel monthly-reports. They highlight some important observations on the data as presented here.
-Phocuswright says 22mn adults in the US market stayed in private accommodation when travelling for leisure over the past year. That represents a sizeable 17% of all US travellers. Of the 83% remaining, 68% did not even consider renting a home, apartment or space when travelling, and 15% considered but did not rent.
-Aeroflot targets for its new no-frills-airline Pobeda (Victory) for 2018 are 40 B737s, 45 routes, 10mn seats sold. These are the same numbers that were targetted for another NFA, Dobrolet, and also for 2018, which Aeroflot launched then shut down in summer 2014.
-Air Berlin, and now its new CEO, Stefan Pichler, have serious strategic problems. Part-owner Etihad seems to regard the airline as a feeder to its routes out of Abu Dhabi.
  But what of the rest of AB’s network? Take Nice-Berlin. Few will fly, say, NCE-BER-Abu Dhabi, then on Etihad to Australia. So if NCE-BER is not making profits, will Etihad/Pichler stop the route?

Travel industry updates
2 April 2015
-Aeroflot sold 5.1mn seats, +15.7%, over January and February.
-IATA reports RPKs grew 6.2% in February – international +6.8%, domestic +5.3%.
-IPKI/ITBB forecast +3% growth for Europe outbound this year.

Travel Stocks
1 April 2015
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in March. Airlines: biggest growth, Air China +41% (sic); biggest fall, Air Asia -13%. Hotels: NH +9%, Wynn -12%. Others: T Cook +13%, Priceline -7%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +11%; biggest fall, Jet -14%. Hotels: Starwood +12%, Jinjiang -10%. Others: Orbitz +17%, CTS -4%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 179, US 306, AsPac 99, Eur 132.  Index previous month: WW 179, US 315, AsPac 98, Eur 125.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Frankfurt +5%; biggest fall, Bangkok -4%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in next month’s newsletters.

Travel industry updates
31 March 2015
-Dubai airport handled 5.97mn passengers, +5.3%, in February.
-US international air seats were 30mn, +6%, in January and February.
-Euromonitor has just released its counts for visitors in the top-100 cities – but for 2013. Our coverage is less comprehensive – the top 20 - but for 2014. We normally would release later, but to supplement Euromonitor’s 2013 coverage – which, unfortunately, becomes academic when released in 2015 – we show our initial counts.
  EM’s top-5, 2013: Hong Kong 26mn, Singapore 22mn, Bangkok 17mn, London 17mn, Paris 15mn. Our top-5, 2014: London 18mn, Bangkok 16mn, Paris 15mn, Singapore 15mn, Hong Kong 14mn.
Our report on this topic is in the current issue of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter. A different report is also included in the Foxtrots blog.

TBA All-Travel Index
30 March 2015
The October ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +3% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +4%.

Seat sales by top-3 no-frills-airlines
27 March 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by world’s top-3 no-frills-airlines in January, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +6.5% for Southwest, +31.1% (sic) Ryanair, (and Q4 only for) Air Asia, +2.2%.

AsPac 2014 outbound, travel industry updates
26 March 2015
-We calculate that visitor arrivals in Asia Pacific grew about-5.1% to 234mn in 2014, and outbound travel from AsPac markets about-9.2% to 236mn. Most of that outbound is from China (yes, 54%); without China, the AsPac total would have been about-5.4% to 127mn.
-Frankfurt airport handled 60mn passengers, +2.6%, in 2014.
-US (nationals only) outbound 4.9mn, +10%, in January.

Seat sales by Europe’s big-3 airline groups
25 March 2015
Our calculation of seats sold by airline groups in Europe in January, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows +0.5% for AF+KL, +8.6% BA+IB+VY, -1.2% LH+LX+OS.

No-frills-/full-service-airlines, Asia Pacific/Europe
24 March 2015
We calculate that seat sales for NFAs (no-frills-airlines) in Europe grew about-7.5% in 2014. That was almost double the about-3.4% for FSAs (full-service-airlines). The difference was much less in Asia Pacific – about-7.7% for NFAs, not much faster than the about-6.3% for FSAs.

Europe airport passengers, US hotels
23 March 2015
Airports
-Our calculation of passenger throughput at ‘low-fare airports’ in Europe for October, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, derived from ACI data, shows: +7.8% (all airports +5.0%). Last month: +7.8% (+3.8%).
US hotels
-STR reports occupancy 62.3%, +3.2%, average room rate US$116.55, + 4.7%, in February.

China/Japan; outbound Japan, Korea
20 March 2015
-Is the China/Japan political face-off ending – for non-politicos? Arrivals in Japan from China in the first two months grew 99%. That helped Japan to report an extraordinary 43% growth in total arrivals over Jan-Feb. That’s the good news. The bad is that outbound travel continues to crumble – down 6% over Jan-Feb.

-It happened much faster and much bigger than we expected. Korea is now a bigger outbound travel market than Japan. Jan-Feb: 2.5mn from Japan; 3.3mn from Korea.

US travel agencies, Cathay Pacific
19 March 2015
-ARC reports that ticket sales by US-based travel agencies were US$7.7bn, +0.03% in February.
-Cathay Pacific with Dragonair:
  -Took exactly the same revenue per seat sold in 2014 as in 2013 – US$433. However, operating profit grew 11.8% to US$18 per seat sold.
  -Sold 31.6mn seats, +5.5%, in 2014.
  -Sold 2.68mn seats, +12.4%, in February.

World hotel results
18 March 2015
The December hotel-track in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows occupancy growth in points: World 2.0; AsPac -0.2; Europe 3.0; US 2.4. Previous month: 1.2; -2.5; 3.5; 1.3.

Korea overtaking Japan
17 March 2015
Korea is on track to become a larger outbound travel market than Japan. We estimate 16.6mn travellers from Japan in the next 12 months, probably Jan-Dec this year, and 16.9mn from Korea.

Index, travel stocks
16 March 2015
The February ‘TBA-100 Index’ of travel stock prices, in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows: World 179; AsPac 98; Europe 125; US 315. (Base: Dec 06.)

US travel index, Hotel-room pipeline
13 March 2015
Index, travel numbers, US
Our US ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Dec +5E; Nov +4P; Oct +4.5; Sep +5.0; Aug +3.8; Jul +5.3; Jun +5.3; May +5.6; Apr +6.6; Mar +1.4; Feb +2.9; Jan +4.0. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Hotel-room pipeline
We calculate, from Smith Travel Research data, for February, the number of rooms in the pipeline has increased: World +14%, US +18%, AsPac +20%, Eur +2%.

US updates:
12 March 2015
-US visitors 75mn, +7%, in 2014; overseas (excluding Canada, Mexico) 34mn, +8%.
-US international air passengers 16.1mn, +5.4%, in January.

Index, travel numbers, Europe
11 March 2015
Our Europe ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Europe edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Dec +5E; Nov +6P; Oct +3.2; Sep +4.7; Aug +4.3; Jul +3.5; Jun +6.0; May +3.5; Apr +5.3; Mar +1.1; Feb +5.1; Jan +6.3. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

Index, travel numbers, Asia Pacific
10 March 2015
Our Asia Pacific ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current Asia Pacific edition of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Dec +4E; Nov +2P; Oct +4.0; Sep +4.3; Aug +5.7; Jul +5.3; Jun +4.6; May +7.5; Apr +6.2; Mar +1.6; Feb +5.3; Jan +5.5. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

ITB Berlin 2015
9 March 2015
Some results for last week’s ITB Berlin were better than we outlined in a report last week. Details:
-175,000 total visitors, +0.6%.
-115,000 trade visitors, +0.9%, of which 43% were from abroad, +3pts. Their length of stay was 2.4 days. +14.3%.
-10,096 exhibitors, -0.5%, from 186 countries, -1.6%.
-23,000 visitors, +4.5%, attended ITBB’s convention, but as entrance is free, the count is not a clear indicator of its value.
-Volume of business conducted (a figure not possible to verify) was US$7.4bn (at US$1 to €0.90), +3.1%. We calculate that as: US$42,500 per visitor, +2%; US$64,750 per trade visitor, +2%; US$737,000 per exhibitor, +4%.

ITB Berlin data
6 March 2015
-This week’s ITB Berlin appears to be smaller. All 2015 data will not be available until next week. But organisers Messe Berlin announced 10,096 exhibitors from 186 countries, and at least 100,000 trade visitors. In 2014 there were 10,147 exhibitors from 189 countries, a total 174,000 visitors including 114,000 trade visitors.
-Maldives expects that being the country partner of ITB Berlin (ITBB 2015 to ITB 2016) will “attract a visitor increase of around 8%”. This will be impossible to measure as the DMO forecasts 4mn visitors for 2015. It reports this as a 20% growth, although it is actually 30%. But whether +20% or +30%, the 8% thanks to ITBB will be part of that total, and not possible to separate.
-Mongolia targets 1mn visitors in 2020, contributing 14% of GDP. 2014: ‘about’ 400k and 5.3%.
-Myanmar visitor arrivals in 2014 were 3.08mn, +50.7%.
-Euromonitor says private travel rentals were worth US$39bn in 2013 and forecasts US$46bn in 2018. It reports this as 19% growth, which looks sizeable. But it is actually only an annual average 3.4%, which is laughably small. We estimate 20% annual growth, which, on Euromonitor’s 2013 total, would mean near US$100bn in 2018.

Travel industry updates
5 March 2015
-The Baird/STR hotel stock index was 3939, +4.5%, in February.
-Sheraton plans to open 20 hotels in 2015.
-Starwood plans to open 40 hotels in Europe 2015-19.

Index, travel numbers, world. ITB Berlin report.
4 March 2015
Our world ‘TBA Travel Industry Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, shows monthly traffic growth of: 2014: Dec +6E; Nov +4P; Oct +4.5; Sep +4.9; Aug +4.9; Jul +4.8; Jun +4.8; May +5.7; Apr +6.4; Mar +1.5; Feb +5.2; Jan +6.1. (Percentage change over previous year. E=estimate, P=provisional.)

-Link to Travel Intelligence reports on Germany, in TTG Asia’s ITB Berlin March 4 daily, pages 4&5, compiled by Murray Bailey, editor of Travel Business Analyst:
http://epublishbyus.com/ebook/ebook?id=10040550#/4

Travel industry updates
3 March 2015
-Copenhagen airport handled 25.6mn passengers +6.5%, in 2014.
-Dubai airport handled 6.90mn passengers, +7.7%, in January.
-Eurostar sold 10.4mn seats, +3%, in 2014.
-IAG (British Iberia Vueling) RPKs were +5.5% in February.
-IATA reported RPKs were +4.6% in January.
-Ryanair sold 5.8mn seats, +29%, in February.

Travel Stocks and TBA All-Travel Index
2 March 2015
Travel Stocks
Travel stocks (US, AsPac, Eur) in February. Airlines: biggest growth, SAS +11%; biggest fall, Jet -14%. Hotels: Starwood +12%, Jinjiang -10%. Others: Orbitz +17%, CTS -4%.
  Previous month: Airlines: biggest growth, Jet +23%; biggest fall, American -8%. Hotels: Accor +19%, Banyan -11%. Others: Airbus +14%, Hertz -18%.
  TBA Travel Stocks Index: WW 179, US 315, AsPac 98, Eur 125.  Index previous month: WW 172, US 290, AsPac 101, Eur 124.
  Stockmarkets. Biggest growth, Dublin +9%; biggest fall, Istanbul -5%.
  Info via Travel Business Analyst. Details in April’s newsletters. 2014 review - including comparison with end-year prices over the past 12 months, and with 5- and 10-years ago – in February newsletters.

TBA All-Travel Index
The October ‘TBA All-Travel Index’ in the current editions of the Travel Business Analyst newsletter, for Asia Pacific travel, is at +4% over the same month in 2013. Previous month +1%.

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Current Issues...

Main contents in current issues of our newsletters and reports:

Travel Business Analyst, Asia Pacific: Summer Special: ZERO – no-fuel travelling machines. Plus: Market Monitor; World Travel Industry Index; ZERO; Market Headlines; Market Outlook; and 20 regular tables of market data.


Travel Business Analyst, Europe: Summer Special: ZERO – no-fuel travelling machines. Plus: Market Monitor; World Travel Industry Index; ZERO; Extracts from Net Value or People-in-Travel; Market Headlines; and 16 regular tables of market data.


Net Value: India online; AirBnB/Uber; Online China; others.


People-in-Travel: Summer Soundbites; others.


Foxtrots/Trottings (recent): What You Should Know; Japan’s stunning fall – and growth; Greece/Tunisia.


ZERO (occasional): No-fuel travelling machines, Boeing/Embraer, United/Fulcrum.

 

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